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Win Prediction Poll

Tiny by jscot on

OK, we've seen what KP has done (so far).  This poll is based on the following assumptions:

1. No more major moves.  Diogu and/or one of Sergio/Koponen may be traded, but the rotation is pretty much set for next season.  If KP makes other significant moves, you have the right to change your prediction.

2. No major injuries.  By this, I mean that no starter misses more than 10 games and no main rotation player misses more than 20 games.

Vote in the poll, and make precise predictions in the comments.  Ties will be broken by the most accurate prediction of the number of playoff wins.

I predict 55 wins.  I also predict that we will then go on to win two playoff series, and get two wins in the WCF, for a total of 10 playoff wins.

Poll
How many wins will the Trailblazers get in 2008-09?
30 or less
0 votes
31-35
1 votes
36-40
0 votes
41-45
17 votes
46-50
137 votes
51-55
182 votes
56-60
24 votes
61 or more, but less than 82
1 votes
82-0, and 16-0 in the playoffs, in Channing we trust
11 votes

373 votes | Poll has closed

5 recs | Comment 98 comments

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53 wins

Leaving this blank 'til I think of something funny

by Zaron5551 on Jun 27, 2008 11:23 AM PDT   0 recs

your assumptions

I think your assumptions are seriously best case scenario. There will be strains and sore ankles and stuff like that. That said, in Channing we trust!

by 50backflips on Jun 27, 2008 11:24 AM PDT   0 recs

45 wins

I think we’ll take a step back initially as we try to work 3 new (and young) players into the rotation (Oden, Bayless, Rudy). I think we’ll be a very strong team in the 2nd half but I’m not sure we make the playoffs this year.

I definitely see us getting 50 wins (at minimum) the season after this one when everyone will have had a year together.

I can’t see 55 wins this year- that would require incredible health and an amazingly seamless transition for the new guys.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Jun 27, 2008 11:26 AM PDT   0 recs

Wow

You really only think we gain 4 wins over last year? I would think last year’s team would have improved that much, just because of all the young guys improving and gaining experience.

Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo

by jscot on Jun 27, 2008 11:31 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

yeah thats not have much faith or trust or being a fan

anyhow, we are gonna gain at least 5 w/ just oden and rudy. i dont think they will take much time to gel…it will be fine

That which prematurely arrives at perfection soon perishes. - Marcus Fabius Quintilian (35-95AD) Roman Rhetorician, Critic

by BlazerFan1 on Jun 27, 2008 11:36 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

yeah

tempered expectations and differing opinions is not equal to “not being a fan.”

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Jun 27, 2008 11:40 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Don't sweat it, jk

He’s new.

Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo

by jscot on Jun 27, 2008 1:17 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

he?

Blazerfan1 =sophia=female

and of course that comment was dripping w/ sarcasm. I dont question either one of you blazermaniac’s fanhood.

That which prematurely arrives at perfection soon perishes. - Marcus Fabius Quintilian (35-95AD) Roman Rhetorician, Critic

by BlazerFan1 on Jun 27, 2008 1:35 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Oops

Sorry, ma’am. :-)

Sophia, of course, has its root in the Greek sophos, wisdom. So we know you are a wise lady based on your name and on the team you support.

(ok, guys, do you think I’ve buttered her up enough to make up for calling her a he? Or do we need to pour on the compliments?)

Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo

by jscot on Jun 27, 2008 1:41 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

jscot:

You are a blazer fan- i heart you no matter what :-)

Btw, I thoroughly enjoy your in depth and superbly researched comments here on BEdge. I , on the other hand, try to keep my opinions regarding the Blazers and KP 100% subjective as it’s obivously more fun this way :-) What can I say, that trait has gotten myself, as well as tons of other true Blazer fans through some really rough times.

Much Love:

Blazerfan1 aka Sophia

That which prematurely arrives at perfection soon perishes. - Marcus Fabius Quintilian (35-95AD) Roman Rhetorician, Critic

by BlazerFan1 on Jun 27, 2008 1:50 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Oh, dear

If she hearts me no matter what…

...perhaps she isn’t so wise after all.

Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo

by jscot on Jun 27, 2008 1:53 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

P.S.

Thanks for the nice words.

Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo

by jscot on Jun 27, 2008 1:53 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

hey now

That which prematurely arrives at perfection soon perishes. - Marcus Fabius Quintilian (35-95AD) Roman Rhetorician, Critic

by BlazerFan1 on Jun 27, 2008 1:55 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

since when does our earthly dictator apologize?

I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich

by hobobob on Jun 28, 2008 7:55 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Oh, I always apologize

It’s because I’m so nice that people will want me to rule the world.

I’ll even apologize to those we have to “liquidate”, telling them that I didn’t want to do it, but it was necessary.

I’m just that way.

Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo

by jscot on Jun 29, 2008 12:54 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

we've been getting lucky...

... winning more than our share of close games (we were outscored last year). That’s likely to regress to the mean. We’re also losing Jones who was crucial in our 13 game win streak. I could see us winning as many as 50-52 if the team gels very quickly. By season’s end, I think we’ll have to look of a ~55 win team, but I think our early struggles will keep us to a relatively modest win total… for one more season.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Jun 27, 2008 11:38 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Disagree with one premise

I don’t think winning more close games than you lose can be attributed primarily to luck, so I’m not sure I think assuming that will drift back to the average is an accurate premise.

I’ve got no problem with your prediction though. I don’t agree, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable.

by douglast on Jun 27, 2008 11:48 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I won't bother with a long explanation...

... but its been repeatedly shown by sabermaticians that record in close games is fairly random (ie having a good record in close games one year doesn’t mean you’ll do it again next year). I’ve watched Brandon Roy’s poise down the stretch and have wondered if he provides an edge that will allow us to keep winning close games, but I’m a numbers geek at times so I’ve been convinced that record in close games is largely luck (for the record, the same is true of “clutch hitting” in baseball- with very few exceptions the best hitters with runners in scoring position are the best hitters overall).

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Jun 27, 2008 12:07 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't buy it

Some guys are just clutch. We’ve got two of them in Brandon and Travis. We may not get the same percentage of close games, but in general, I think we’ll win more than our share.

That said, our clutch players may cause us to lose some close games by coming up with clutch plays that get us close when we shouldn’t have been. I think that happened a few times this year, too.

Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo

by jscot on Jun 27, 2008 1:14 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Right, but he's right about the best hitters being the best clutch hitters as well

I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich

by hobobob on Jun 28, 2008 7:58 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

2 reasons why we will win close gaes next year

Nate McMillan and Rudy Fernandez.

The Blazers did very well on the first couple plays after a time out last year, which I attribute to Nate doing a good job of setting up plays during the timeouts. There are usually a lot of time outs called at the end of a close game, so this will help us win those games.

Having skilled free-throw shooters helps a team win close games by making it so that the other team can’t catch up while using fouls to stop the clock. Last year we had 2 85%+ FT shooters in Jack and Jones. They probably won’t be back next year, but Rudy is a 90%+ FT shooter and should be able to do a good job as the new designated free-throw shooter.

by trk on Jun 29, 2008 1:06 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I disagree on the "luck"

but subtraction of JJ33 and JJ leaves us a little shy on experience and I think that will adversely effect us.

I expected Oden to be +10 games. That puts us at 51. I expect JJ33 will costs us -5 games. That drops us down to 46 games. I think the growth of the blazers adds another +5 or +6 to put us back up to 52 games. I think that Rudy and Bayless’s inexperience will drop us down -4.

We’ll have new guys learning learning the NBA, learning the system, learning the expectations, learning their roles…

I think jk is a little pessimistic, but not that far off.

Ford: Bill, you're claiming victory already? Have you had a "Mission Accomplished" banner printed yet?

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/columns/story?page=DraftDebate-080624

by ratbastird on Jun 27, 2008 12:04 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Aren't you hitting us twice for the same thing?

Taking away five games for JJ33 and 4 for Rudy and Bayless inexperience?

And is there no plus for adding Rudy and Bayless? Do you really think Bayless is not an upgrade over Jarrett behind Blake? This guy can ball.

Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo

by jscot on Jun 27, 2008 1:16 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I predict that you will die of old age

before you supplant the ruler of the world: Kevin Pritchard!

And I do like his reasoning even if I don’t share his result.

Aldridge said. "We feel like we can beat any team. We feel like we can beat the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, whoever any night right now, and we'll still be here when those teams get old and their guys retire. We're going to be here for a long time."

by lee3022 on Jun 28, 2008 9:34 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

You didn't even realize

that I’m only 7 years old.

KP only rules the NBA. I’ve delegated that to him, and I must say I’m pleased with his handling of it. The best part is that he’s done it in such a way that the silly man Stern still thinks he’s in charge.

Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo

by jscot on Jun 29, 2008 12:57 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Then why does KP want to move the Sonics to OKC?

"Well, Travis just showed us that we can go to Travis Outlaw." - Nate McMillan

by 12sharks on Jun 30, 2008 2:34 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Uh-oh

I’m going to have to think hard to spin my way out of that one.

Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo

by jscot on Jun 30, 2008 4:42 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, really..

I’m waiting. Also, please choose a rep a little taller next time so draft night doesn’t look like a freakshow when your underling shakes hands with the draftees.

"Well, Travis just showed us that we can go to Travis Outlaw." - Nate McMillan

by 12sharks on Jun 30, 2008 7:37 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree with you

but I’d up it to 48 wins. I want to see if any other tweaks take place before I do a hard core prediction.

Ford: Bill, you're claiming victory already? Have you had a "Mission Accomplished" banner printed yet?

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/columns/story?page=DraftDebate-080624

by ratbastird on Jun 27, 2008 11:57 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

That's regular season

the number of post season wins is tough because it depends on how all the other teams do relative to us and thus our placement. 48 wins might not even GET us into the play-offs.

I think we’ll make the play-offs this year though. I believe our team will SUCK at the beginning and then take off like a rocket.

Top team next year will be the lakers, and I think we’ll be playing against them… and BEATING them in the first round. Actually… i think the only team that will really be a problem after we gel is the Celtics…

Dang. My post season prediction is going to be 15 wins in the post season.

If 48 gets us the play-offs… I honestly think we could go all the way but MIGHT fall one game short against the celtics just because they have tremendous savvy and experience. That defeated the hornets in the playoffs.

Ford: Bill, you're claiming victory already? Have you had a "Mission Accomplished" banner printed yet?

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/columns/story?page=DraftDebate-080624

by ratbastird on Jun 27, 2008 12:10 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm pretty surprised

because I hadn’t thought about it until now.

I suck at all other predictions, but I’ve been pretty dang close if not dead on in my season win predictions. Here’s to making the play-offs and me being right. Because with that taste… you can BET our team will be hungry the following year. and mean.

Ford: Bill, you're claiming victory already? Have you had a "Mission Accomplished" banner printed yet?

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/columns/story?page=DraftDebate-080624

by ratbastird on Jun 27, 2008 12:12 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

of course...

I’m holding off on all real predictions until after summer league.

Ford: Bill, you're claiming victory already? Have you had a "Mission Accomplished" banner printed yet?

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/columns/story?page=DraftDebate-080624

by ratbastird on Jun 27, 2008 12:14 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree

I think the rest of the league is now wise to the Blazers and the conference seems pretty strong overall. Of course, now that Jack isn’t dribbling off his foot or stepping out of bounds…

by torsoheap on Jun 29, 2008 4:00 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

45, I agree...

I’m normally an optimist, but the rules state that we vote based on the roster as it stands. A four game improvement is substantial in this Western conference. You can’t expect another 13 game winning streak either. This will require a more consistent effort that we had last year. The other young teams will be better next year, and, although some older teams may slide…they will still be better than us on most days. I hope I’m wrong. Either way it will be a blast!

Punk Rock and Basketball aren't mutually exclusive.

by Underdogfan on Jun 29, 2008 7:11 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

seriously 50-55

hopefuly that gets us to the playoffs

That which prematurely arrives at perfection soon perishes. - Marcus Fabius Quintilian (35-95AD) Roman Rhetorician, Critic

by BlazerFan1 on Jun 27, 2008 11:29 AM PDT   0 recs

+1

Our bench is gonna be better than some starting lineups – IMHO.

GO Super Blazers!

LMA's reign as "LaMonster of the Low Post" has just begun!

by LaMarvelous on Jun 27, 2008 12:34 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I think we can get playoffs

Keep in mind that some of the other teams that made the playoffs this year seriously are not well represented by their season records (from the trades, like Phoenix and Dallas). Ideally, they will be lower seeds next year or not make it at all.

Also, I’m guessing that none of the teams that were ranked below us this year will make greater strides than we have and will.

James Jones for the block

by RecordTOs on Jun 27, 2008 10:15 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

53 wins

start slow, but come on strong the 2nd half once we gel.

4th to 6th seed in the west. We win one playoff series and two games in the 2nd round for a total of 6 playoff wins.

We are next year’s version of New Orleans Hornets, only we have more upside.

by douglast on Jun 27, 2008 11:32 AM PDT   0 recs

oh, and when...

does “next year” become “this year”. What’s the cutoff on that?

by douglast on Jun 27, 2008 11:32 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Good question

I’m going to say when Summer league starts we can now say “THIS YEAR”

by Kelsoballa on Jun 27, 2008 11:52 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I've already started with the "this years"

Ford: Bill, you're claiming victory already? Have you had a "Mission Accomplished" banner printed yet?

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/columns/story?page=DraftDebate-080624

by ratbastird on Jun 27, 2008 12:05 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

62 wins (that's right!)

Last years team alone will be that much better and the other teams that were tough will be that much worse. Look out western confrence!

by dirtball on Jun 27, 2008 11:34 AM PDT   0 recs

98 W's

I realize I’m being overly optimistic, but while I can I’ll dream the fantasy until reality blows it away with a mere eighty-two wins. In Batum I trust!

"...and that loud noise you hear coming is the Portland Trailblazers." - Charles Barkley

by RebelRogue on Jun 27, 2008 11:35 AM PDT   0 recs

100 wins

BOOK IT!

That which prematurely arrives at perfection soon perishes. - Marcus Fabius Quintilian (35-95AD) Roman Rhetorician, Critic

by BlazerFan1 on Jun 27, 2008 11:36 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

97 Ws

We’ll go 82-0 in the regular season, sweep the first three rounds of the playoffs, win the first three of the Finals….

...and then put Bill Simmons and every NE Patriots fan out of their misery as we drop the final four games.

Just kidding.

by EngineerScotty on Jun 27, 2008 12:12 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

not funny

That which prematurely arrives at perfection soon perishes. - Marcus Fabius Quintilian (35-95AD) Roman Rhetorician, Critic

by BlazerFan1 on Jun 27, 2008 12:47 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

yeah all the Blazers will "retire"

because of gambling problems and start playing baseball. Then they’ll all get traded to the same baseball team and go undefeated.

Winning is everything.

by MT Suit on Jun 28, 2008 8:18 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

50 wins, 32 losses

We make the playoffs as a 7 or 8 seed.

We don't NEED the draft. -Mortimer 6/18

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Jun 27, 2008 12:00 PM PDT   0 recs

47 wins, WCF appearance

I think the players we add will help us win but as a team, we won’t be a surprise to other teams this year. Teams will be ready to throw their best punch at us, unlike last year. I can see why people think that adding Oden, Rudy, and Bayless will net us at least ten more wins, but I don’t think you can look at it from the perspective that better players = more wins, but rather that better teams = more wins. Looking back on last year, we won a lot of close games, because we had great teamwork during the streak and all year long. Looking back it really felt like a 36 or 37 win season not a 41. That win streak skewed things and Jones was huge during it. I just don’t see us winning ALL the close games like we did last year, I think the ball bounced our way more times than not last year. But I still think we improve by 6 games, and take the Rockets to six games in the Western Conference Finals.

by Kelsoballa on Jun 27, 2008 12:01 PM PDT   0 recs

um...

... this is the west. 47 wins didn’t get you into the playoffs last year and the conference hasn’t gotten much easier (maybe a little bit with PHX, Dal and SA getting another year older). If a 47 win team is in the WCF, I’ll eat my hat.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Jun 27, 2008 12:19 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I think fewer wins will get in

Minnesota will be better. Seattle ought to be. Memphis will be. Brand will be healthy, so the Clips will be tougher. So there will be fewer easy wins for Western Conference teams.

Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo

by jscot on Jun 27, 2008 1:29 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree

but 47wins still isn’t landing anything above a 7 seed.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Jun 27, 2008 1:34 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Agreed

I just think it will be irrelevant for us next year. We’ll be a top four seed, last year’s Hornets.

Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo

by jscot on Jun 27, 2008 1:42 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

47 gets us 6th seed at best

I’m predicting we upset two teams in the playoffs before losing to the Rockets.

by Kelsoballa on Jun 27, 2008 2:48 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Also, Stern mentioned changing the rules so that the better teams overall make the POs

I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich

by hobobob on Jun 28, 2008 8:01 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

link?

I’ve heard him say nothing but the opposite

by douglast on Jun 29, 2008 10:51 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

48 wins, 7-8 seed, 1st rd exit

Agree with jsnake99 that this won’t get us deep into the playoffs, but I have to be a little bit of a homer and say we’ll make the playoffs. We’ll be heavy underdogs and make a series of it in the first round, I’ll predict 2 playoff wins.

by kickbrass on Jun 27, 2008 12:45 PM PDT   0 recs

Either

I think it will be either exactly 50 wins and 32 losses OR 55 wins and 27 losses. Both fit nicely in the pattern we’ve held to in the last six years or so.

by chezgrin on Jun 27, 2008 12:50 PM PDT   0 recs

52 wins

there’s just something about that number….

by Bskey on Jun 27, 2008 1:16 PM PDT   0 recs

56 Wins

One up on you, because who wants to be below jscot?

I agree with David Thorpe that we have 4 of the top 20 rookies in the league. I also think that we have the best 10-best player in the league, giving us amazing depth. Finally, all of our young guys from last year, who did very well, are getting older fast—in a good way.

56.

by pualo on Jun 27, 2008 1:22 PM PDT   0 recs

Maybe the most potential 10 per team

but the 10 best would need to factor experience.

Aldridge said. "We feel like we can beat any team. We feel like we can beat the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, whoever any night right now, and we'll still be here when those teams get old and their guys retire. We're going to be here for a long time."

by lee3022 on Jun 28, 2008 9:41 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Well, I believe last year we may have had the best 9th man in the league.

I’m a bit of a stat geek, and I found that our 9-man rotation extremely solid compared to most other teams. Often, teams employed a guy who really didn’t deserve many minutes at the end of their rotation. We didn’t have that same problem. I think Houston might have been equally deep, however.

Adding a few more nice pieces could potentially give us the best 10th man. It’s kind of funny pondering this, but it’s kind of fun too. The 10th man in our rotation (Bayless or Frye or someone else?) is better than your 10th man!

by poster on Jun 29, 2008 2:19 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Not only that

Roy and Aldridge will be over their sophomore slump. :-)

Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo

by jscot on Jun 27, 2008 1:30 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

If you call an allstar appearance a slump

I will happy to take another slump year from Roy.

by koyote on Jun 27, 2008 1:39 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

That was tongue in cheek

I, like an idiot, predicted a sophomore slump for Roy.

I think it lasted about four games.

Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo

by jscot on Jun 27, 2008 1:43 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

2 of those games he was away on family leave

That which prematurely arrives at perfection soon perishes. - Marcus Fabius Quintilian (35-95AD) Roman Rhetorician, Critic

by BlazerFan1 on Jun 27, 2008 1:57 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

we need to Rec this Fanpost

keep it up on the top.

by douglast on Jun 27, 2008 1:50 PM PDT   0 recs

52

western conference finals, lose in 6 to the lakers.

myspace.com/marktwainindians

by mark twain on Jun 27, 2008 6:44 PM PDT   0 recs

08/09 wins

we will win the first series and lose in western semi conference series in game seven over time

by billyjoejack on Jun 27, 2008 7:10 PM PDT   0 recs

sorry

we get 54 wins which gets us in the playoffs

by billyjoejack on Jun 27, 2008 7:11 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

P.S.

IN Rudy’s second year and Roy’s fourth year 09/10 The Potland Trail Blazers Play for the NBA ChampionShip

by billyjoejack on Jun 28, 2008 8:28 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs