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2008/09: Setting the Table

While it's still possible we could make another big move this summer, I don't see it happening. We've trimmed the roster to 13 players, not counting Koponen and Batum. Our 2008-09 opening roster is set. More importantly, I think our 09-10 and beyond 9-man rotation now looks like this:

Guards: Rudy, Roy, Bayless
Bigs: Oden, LMA, Joel, OPEN
SF: Outlaw or Martel, OPEN

That leaves 2 spots open in a 9-man rotation. We could have both of those guys on our current roster or we could have none. I think the first half of 2008-09 is about finding this out. We could have made some guesses about Martel and Outlaw now, but in the end we decided to take a bit more time to be sure. Let's take a look at the rest of the 08-09 roster and the guys who are competing for these spots in our championship rotation:

Small Forward:
Travis Outlaw: Travis needs to prove he can play primarily at the SF position. If he's going to stay with us long term, it's at that position. I think he also needs to prove he can fit in with our starting unit. If not, and Martel's not the answer either, than he may be the price we pay at the deadline or next summer to get a starter at the 3 spot. Odds on being on the opening 2009-10 roster: 80%
Martel Webster: I think Martel has about 30 games to prove he belongs in the long term plans. If he doesn't, then he'll be a guy we are shopping hard at the deadline. We don't want him taking up $11.4 million of cap space while he's shopping for a contract next summer. Odds: 35%

Bigs:
Channing Frye: If he shows the same type of game he did the last part of last season, and he's willing to be a career backup, then I think Channing is a safe bet for the 4th big spot. Working against him is his lack of inside game on both ends of the court, his contract situation, and the fact that he is LMA-lite rather than a changeup banger type. Like Martel, if he looks to be the odd man out, he's a trade deadline candidate. Odds: 50%
Ike Diogu: Unlike Channing, he is a changeup at the backup 4 spot. He plays down low on both ends, brings muscle, and isn't afraid to bang. Fairly replaceable skillset and role on this team, and he's in the same contract boat as Martel and Frye. Odds: 20%

Other Current Players:
Steve Blake: Ideal backup point guard for us. Can hit the spotup three. He's a guy you are not afraid to start and play more minutes if needed due to injuries. Has a team option at around 4.5 million for 2009-10. I think ultimately whether or not that option is picked up depends a lot more on what Sergio and Koponen do than what Blake does. We know what he brings to the table and it isn't going to change. Odds: 75%
Sergio Rodriguez: Sergio is at a crossroads. He either comes in this year with his buddy Rudy and proves he deserves some playing time, or he comes in pouting that we drafted another point and doesn't earn time. If it's the former, he could be an exciting change of pace on the 2nd unit, and could make Blake expendable. If it's the latter, then he's done. Odds: 20%
RLEC: He's either moved in a deadline deal, or expires.  Odds: 0%

Overall Options:
More dealing this summer: We could still package some combination of Outlaw, Martel, Frye, and RLEC for a starting SF we really like. Conceivably, Bayless could be packaged for a veteran PG we really like as well. I think the first one will probably be explored, but not happen. I think we drafted Bayless because we want him, so I don't see that happening either.
Summer 2009: If we like any of Martel, Frye, and Diogu for our 9-man rotation, we match them or sign them ourselves. The others we could let walk if we want to preserve our immense cap space to make a big splash, either in free agency or through unbalanced (salary-wise) trades.
Trade Deadline Deal: I think this is our first choice. We can go into summer 2009 with the cap hold of any one of Frye, Martel, or Ike and STILL have around $15-$20 million in cap space. The holds of any 2 of them together though really kills most of our space. I think we take the first 30 games this year to figure out which one of the three we want to keep, and try to move the other two, either for a veteran guy we really like at the 3 or 4 or for younger guys who have more time left on their rookie deals. We could also package them with RLEC for a starter-quality player if we find someone we are really in love with.

Whichever way we go, we are sitting in the catbird's seat. We really can't lose at this point, no matter what we do. Any "frosting" yet to be had is going to be at the small forward position. If Martel and/or Outlaw aren't the guy, then bammo - we have all the tools to get the guy.

Assuming no major injuries, I predict 50-55 wins this year, 3rd to 5th in the west, and a 1st round win. We come back in 09-10 with our roster and rotation questions answered, a bit more experience, perhaps a new high-profile player, and we are ready to make a push for the 2010 title.

16 recs | Comment 79 comments

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This gets a rec

I agree yo…

I cant wait 127 days till the start of the 2008/9 season!!!!!!!!!!

too bad im a poor college student/single mom and cant afford season tix lol :)

That which prematurely arrives at perfection soon perishes. - Marcus Fabius Quintilian (35-95AD) Roman Rhetorician, Critic

by BlazerFan1 on Jun 27, 2008 11:09 AM PDT   0 recs

Excellent analysis, as usual

I always appreciate your thoroughness. You get a rec from me.

I won’t be surprised to see Martell, Channing, or both get an extension this summer, though. I think they’ve both shown enough to get a moderately priced extension, and if they are willing to take it, it will happen.

I think you underrate Martell’s chances significantly. I think you overrate Sergio’s chances slightly. Otherwise, you are spot on, IMO, even to your point about Blake’s future being somewhat dependent on Sergio/PK.

Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo

by jscot on Jun 27, 2008 11:10 AM PDT   0 recs

thanks for the compliment

I put Sergio as high as I did primarily because of his contract. He’ll have 1 year left on his deal after this one, at very little money. He could be a throw-in piece in a deal, but if not, he comes back and sits the bench again. I put his odds of cracking the rotation at a much much lower number.

You are probably right on Martel. I’m personally quite a bit higher on him, but I just have a weird vibe that it’s either going to be Travis or Martel, but not not both. Primarily due to Martel’s contract deal, which Dave detailed the other day.

by douglast on Jun 27, 2008 11:18 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree - at least for Martell

We can draft backup PFs easier than starting SFs and Martell likely has done enough to earn a three year $5M per contract. Diogu and Frye will still have to excell to survive and likely won’t like the $ offered here ($3-4M for one of them?).

Aldridge said. "We feel like we can beat any team. We feel like we can beat the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, whoever any night right now, and we'll still be here when those teams get old and their guys retire. We're going to be here for a long time."

by lee3022 on Jun 28, 2008 9:52 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

i think frye and blake fill those open spots this year with in the future if they pan out

Koponen and Batum eventually earning the spots

Leaving this blank 'til I think of something funny

by Zaron5551 on Jun 27, 2008 11:16 AM PDT   0 recs

this does mean i think that we are going to use a four guard rotation

at least for a while. I think that Blake will start at the beginning of the season next year with Bayless quickly earning the starting spot. I think if Batum makes the rotation in the future we will use Travis as a big/sf

Leaving this blank 'til I think of something funny

by Zaron5551 on Jun 27, 2008 11:19 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I think you're spot on

Our future three guard will be Roy, Bayless, and Rudy.

Finland may stay but will be back up to those guys and Blake will help Bayless Settle in. Can Bayless be a starter this year? If so… wow.

Ford: Bill, you're claiming victory already? Have you had a "Mission Accomplished" banner printed yet?

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/columns/story?page=DraftDebate-080624

by ratbastird on Jun 27, 2008 11:22 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

The Fifteen Man Roster

I was going to put this in a diary, but since you already started one, I’ll just rec yours and put it here:

Last season, we ended the year with Pryz, LMA, Web, Roy, Blake, Frye, Outlaw, Jones, Jack, Sergio, Raef, McBob, Darius Miles’ ghost, Wafer, and Oden.

We now have subtracted from that list five players: Jones (FA, though might come back), Jack (trade), Miles (waived), McBob (trade), and Wafer (FA, probably gone for good).

We have added two on draft day who will, barring further deals, no doubt be on the opening day roster, in Bayless (#11 pick), and Diogu (trade). In addition, everyone expects Rudy Fernandez to show up.

That leaves two open roster slots. Wild cards include Nicholas Batum (will we see any of him?), Koponen (is he ready), and a few other euros stashed overseas, including Joel Freeland. We could also decide to add an inexpensive veteran—James Jones, should we re-sign him, or some other journeyman player who’s been ‘round the block.

One other interesting note-John Canzano is again stirring the pot, pronouncing Trout as the Blazers starting SF next year. While he will no doubt compete for the job-I don’t think Martell is shoved aside that easily. Also, Trout has done better coming off the bench, whereas Webster seems to do better in the starting lineup. The SF quandry will be interesting to see.

So, some questions:

1) How do you guys think we should use the open roster slots? Two vets? Two Euro prospects? One of each?

2) If we do go after a vet, how hard do we target James Jones? Is he this year’s Ime Udoka?

3) Martell or Outlaw at the SF?

4) While I expect Blake to be the starting PG on opening day—who will be the starter next to Roy by the end of the year? Blake? Bayless? Rudy? Sergio!!?

by EngineerScotty on Jun 27, 2008 11:23 AM PDT   0 recs

answers

1) One Euro, leave one open (which KP again said on the radio this morning he prefers)

2) Not sure we do, unless we don’t sign any of our Euros. If so, I think JJ33 would be good, but unlikely to happen (same as Ime – he’ll want more years than we want to offer)

3) Martel should start. I think he’s a better fit with the starting unit, and I think Outlaw fits better with the 2nd unit.

4) Bayless

by douglast on Jun 27, 2008 11:27 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Canzano is "stirring the pot"

That’s perfect language for what he’s constantly trying to do.

As far as #3 goes, I think the answer is both. Martell should start, with Trout being our super-sixth-man. Trout has shown that he doesn’t perform that well as a starter, and he brings some great energy off the bench. I see the two of them playing a similar number of minutes, but Martell will start.

Trade Freeland!

by rockingharder on Jun 27, 2008 11:31 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

My answers

1) Koponen gets one of the spots, so he doesn’t sign a bad contract with a big Euro team and get lost to us forever. Batum gets the other if he wants it.
2) I doubt we go after a vet. If so, we don’t target Jones. He’s got a better deal lined up, or he wouldn’t have opted out, and he’s not worth a better deal to us with this lineup. He’ll go with a strong team somewhere that feels like they need a 3 point threat off the bench.
3) I think Martell will start. If I had any doubt, now that Canzano says Travis, I’m sure of Martell.
4) I have no clue who will start next to Roy, either opening day or in the WCF. Could be Blake. Could be Bayless. Could be Rudy. I sort of expect Blake. I expect Bayless to be starting within a year and a half, though.

Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo

by jscot on Jun 27, 2008 11:42 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

my opinion on the webster/ outlaw situation

I like both of them long term. If martell improves again next year, it just doesnt make sense to trade him…..

as far as the starting position. I’m a believer that you put your best five on the floor to start…Outlaw is the fourth best player on our team. That says it all….While he is great coming off the bench, i think he could be used just as effectively to crush teams early…...then of course, when it comes to crunch time,..outlaw already has proven himself. He is Mr. Fourth Quarter and all

by BroyTheTruth on Jun 27, 2008 2:21 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

sidenote

i love the jerryd bayless pick..I think he could fit the mold of devin harris, that so many blazer fans were hoping for…and from what i can tell, he is a better scorer…..great pick kp

by BroyTheTruth on Jun 27, 2008 2:22 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Travis doesn't have the stamina to play all those minutes

He plays well int he 4th because he is rested.

Boston coach Doc Rivers said he was surprised by the firing of Saunders.
"I don't understand it," Rivers said. "It makes coaching not fun."

by Dheepan on Jun 27, 2008 2:34 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Great post

Pasting my comment from earlier to add to a conversation that’s not about to slip off the page:

We should keep this roster (every key player) until the trade deadline at the very least, and maybe the whole season if the team is gelling and nothing great comes up with trades. The only trade I would like to do during the summer to consolidate a little bit is Sergio and Diogu for an expiring contract we can put on the inactive list and a good future first round pick. That leaves us with two units of:

Bayless/Roy/Webster/Aldridge/Oden
and
Blake/Fernandez/Outlaw/Frye/Pryzbilla
while
Koponen and Batum pick up the remaining scrap minutes and the rest are inactive

No reasons to complain; every single player in that rotation is quality. That roster itself could develop into a championship contender. If we stick with the roster for the season and it still has major issues to address, we can evaluate where we are and make moves with our cap space next summer. We’re in a pretty nice place right now.

by amitp06 on Jun 27, 2008 11:56 AM PDT   0 recs

Diogu is an expiring contract

Isn’t he? I think having him around is about as good as we could hope for. Frankly, I am LOVING this lineup from top to Batum.

Or Bantum.

NB?

by rmcdougall on Jun 27, 2008 10:23 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

BATMAN

I think I’ll do a mockup for our new Cult Hero.

Boston coach Doc Rivers said he was surprised by the firing of Saunders.
"I don't understand it," Rivers said. "It makes coaching not fun."

by Dheepan on Jun 27, 2008 10:32 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Paul Allen is Batman

Rich bachelor with nerdy gadgets.

President of the Petteri Koponen fan club.

by Sabonis4Ever on Jun 27, 2008 10:49 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I think that "White Unit" lineup

would be able to beat the Blazer’s starting 5 from a couple years ago.

by trk on Jun 28, 2008 12:18 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I love this draft

partially because it sets us up really well for a deadline deal, where RLEC will have the most value and when a couple of teams might be a little desperate and make a bad move (see Memphis, Pau Gasol). I suppose something could happen over the summer, too, but that makes less sense to me because some of our valuable trade assets (Martell, Outlaw, Frye, even Sergio maybe) will have a chance to increase their value during the first half of this season.
I see the first half of the season as a chance to get Oden in game shape and showcase some of our young talent for a deadline deal. Whatever space is left on the roster we can fill in with some of our promising Euro talent. Then we make a push with our shiny new piece for one of the lower playoff seeds in the West. We make a series of it and get some experience under our belts, although I don’t see how we can win a series, before reloading for a deep run in 2010.
Also, I think Bayless is a steal and am really excited about his future in the backcourt with Roy. All he needs to do is run the break OK and set up Roy to handle the ball in the halfcourt. And the guy can shoot, which is another requisite for that position. I’m not too high on the “pure point” need, we need someone to be the BJ Armstrong to Roy’s Jordan and I think Bayless is that guy.

by kickbrass on Jun 27, 2008 12:14 PM PDT   0 recs

Time to Learn

We’ll address the next step before the trade deadline in early spring prior to the end of the season. KP did a great job of improving the team yet keeping all of our options available. My guess is that the way you solve cap issues is you re-sign the players you want to keep early, and trade the others. Who-ever that is. KP’s not going to let it get out of hand. Even if we like what we’ve got after 40-50 games, you know very well he’ll sit down with every cap player and make a deal then – not wait. Right now, we have the cap space, 4-#2’s, and a number of pieces. I don’t see any movement right now on Blake, Roy, Fernandez or Bayless. Nor on Oden, Aldridge, Pryz or Frye. Outlaw and Webster make up the 10 KP said he really liked. The rest, such as Koponen, Sergio, Diogu, LaFrentz and Batum are in the third unit. Only if we’re not happy with the Outlaw/Webster production, will we likely package one with the cap/#2’s/other players from the third unit, and then pick up a SF. But we have 40-50 games to figure that out. At the same time, the word on Batum is he wants to stay here – as it is on Koponen. If that’s accurate, then they’ll pick up the last two spots on the roster. As far as Batum goes, KP/Mac liked him. They’re also aware that the way he was used in Europe only gave him 7.6 shot attempts a game. If he’d had 20, like a lot of these American youngsters, his points would have more than doubled. I think they see something I may not – just like they saw something with Fernandez no-one else really zeroed in on. As a result, we may start to be pleasantly surprised as the season gets underway. KP hasn’t wasted one of those 1st round low picks yet.

by Eben Calder on Jun 27, 2008 12:16 PM PDT   0 recs

first post I ever recced

But I don’t know how to spell recced. Maybe it’s with a ck instead of a cc.
Curious to see what happens with bah-Tooom. If he makes the roster he won’t get many minutes, but maybe he’ll be exciting. Don’t know nothin’ about his game.

Winning is everything.

by MT Suit on Jun 27, 2008 12:42 PM PDT   0 recs

I like Rec'd

Joel Freeland=Stud

by hightide on Jun 27, 2008 1:42 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I wreck lots of posts

but they are always my own.

Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo

by jscot on Jun 27, 2008 2:23 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Good stuff, douglast

I still think the team would benefit greatly from being able to make one more deal – a veteran SF. Think Caron Butler or Tayshaun Prince or perhaps even Mike Miller.

I’d be open to trading Martell Webster in a package for any of those 3 – then let Outlaw do what he does best – coming off the bench to backup the SF and PF positions.

Such a deal might cut into cap space in 2009, but so be it.

In fact, I put a scenario together where the Blazers trade Przybilla, Webster, Sergio and a 2nd round pick in 2009 to Minnesota for Mike Miller and their 2010 1st round pick (top 15 protected). Then sign Frye to an extension this summer (he’ll make $6 million in 2009-10) and get Rudy, Batum, Bayless and Koponen all under contract this summer. You let LaFrentz and Diogu walk at the end of the year as UFA’s and renounce their rights. That would leave about $13 million in cap space in July of 2009 ($18 million if the team didn’t pick up Blake’s option). That’s not a bad scenario, IMO.

by Storyteller on Jun 27, 2008 1:36 PM PDT   0 recs

thanks

I like Miller too. I wouldn’t have been sad to see us get him yesterday, and I won’t be sad to see us get him now.

I’m not holding onto the 2009 cap space as a holy grail anymore. The number of guys who are going to be UFAs that I even like is small. The number of those that would fit a need on our team and our team culture is even smaller—it might be zero. The cap space, if used, will be used for taking back more salary in a trade for a guy we like, NOT in a free agent signing.

I think we wait for now though. Miller might still be there for us at the trade deadline, for a package very similar to what you are suggesting. And I don’t think we trade Joel until at least then, unless we get back another center who can duplicate what he gives us.

by douglast on Jun 27, 2008 1:49 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

No

And the Rockets won’t give him to us for cheap. Plus he’s 30.

Maybe we need to get rid of one SF like Travis or Martell but not now.

Boston coach Doc Rivers said he was surprised by the firing of Saunders.
"I don't understand it," Rivers said. "It makes coaching not fun."

by Dheepan on Jun 27, 2008 2:55 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I think you're right

For a long time I have been proposing trades to get Battier. I think that he doesn’t fit age wise. 26 or 27 years old tops. I have begun to search for that one special player, and I can’t find him yet. LeBron is the only one, but he would have to demand a trade to Portland (not likely) and Cleveland would have to fall off the map (also unlikely).

by parkinglotj on Jun 27, 2008 9:59 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Childress

was a popular name. I don’t see him as a huge upgrade in anything but the hair department. But seriously, getting that fro on this team would be HUGE for morale after losing JJ’s ‘stache.

by rmcdougall on Jun 27, 2008 10:25 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Batum is supposedly a lockdown D guy

I think his pick was very good as he was projected to go in the top 14 last year.

He supposedly has freakish sthleticism, good footwork and long arms. He has good BBIQ and with those arms can get in passing lanes. During the 2007 nike world hoops summit, which BTW is like a 5th of our new roster, (Batum, Kopo, Bayless) Batum had 4 steals:

http://www.insidehoops.com/hoop-summit.shtml

Part-One-1994/” target=”_blank”>http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Nike-Hoop-Summit-World-Team-Player-Recap-Part-One-1994/

I think one of the reasons that KP took Batum as that he had been highly rated as a D’er, as much as I liked Arthur and Dorsey, they were more low post D’ers and with Oden and Pryz anchoring the post D Arthur and Dorsey, while nice, are redundant. In going Batum, KP can get a perimeter defender like Pippen, who is Batums fav player and who he has modeled his game after.

We have offense at the SF position now with Webster and TO, Batum can add that D presence on the wing hopefully.

by SpyderRyder on Jun 27, 2008 10:49 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

You don't think Martell is defense?

It would seem to contradict what Coach Nate has said but his statements were in the “become” context rather than “arrived”. Martell appears to be a better athlete than any of those players except LeBron. This year will tell how Martell has embraced that role.

Of course in two or three years Batum may have blown by him!

Aldridge said. "We feel like we can beat any team. We feel like we can beat the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, whoever any night right now, and we'll still be here when those teams get old and their guys retire. We're going to be here for a long time."

by lee3022 on Jun 28, 2008 10:39 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Why would we trade Joel ?

You don’t trade a selfless, athletic C who rebounds, sets picks and
anchors your interior D. GO is going to be GREAT, but will have foul trouble
and or (fingers crossed) injury possibilities. We have the best one-two
Center combo and you don’t mess with that advantage.
Martell would be heading into his senior year in college. He has bought into
Nate’s vision of being a lock-down defender and improved in that regard this
last season. He’s already got the outside shot (needing to add more consistancy),
has shown improvement in moving without the ball and with his stated
emphasis on improving his ball handling this summer will be taking the
ball to the rack more. We’ve seen that he can finnish at the rim, but with GO
& Smooth drawing more doubles, he’ll have more room to attack the rim or
get his shot off. Get over the bias of taking him instead of Paul/Williams and
allow him to blend into our unique chemisty/TEAM. Rip City !!!!

BRING BACK OUR BLAZERS TO SO. OREGON !!!! COINCAST SUCKS !!!!!!

It's GO time !

by walkoff41 on Jun 27, 2008 2:21 PM PDT   0 recs

Central Oregon as well!

I can see DISH getting it if Comcast were not so greedy. Recently Comcast has made deals in other areas of the country for NBA coverage carriage for much less than they are demanding in Oregon. Blazers are still pretty dumb in the PR department to allow this to drag on.

Aldridge said. "We feel like we can beat any team. We feel like we can beat the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, whoever any night right now, and we'll still be here when those teams get old and their guys retire. We're going to be here for a long time."

by lee3022 on Jun 28, 2008 10:42 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

What to do with RLEC?

All of that cap space we could have is interesting assuming RLEC is allowed to simply come off of the books. However, if we are looking to sign a big-name free agent (and I’m assuming it would likely be a small forward) what available big-time small forward is out there that fits our timeline? The only one that is remotely close who will be a free agent after this season is Shawn Marion. However, he is already in that 30 year old range. Is there someone else I am missing?

The other option is to trade his expiring contract before the february trade deadline. Our best case scenario is to find someone who is in the process of gutting their own roster and doesn’t mind sacrificing big time expensive talent. Otherwise we are going to have to throw in about $5-6 million dollars worth of players salaries along with Raef’s contract, and draft picks to pick up this mega free-agent if it occurs via trade before this year’s trade deadline. That would probably mean Raef + Webster + Frye + $ + future draft picks. Then you just have to hope other teams go for it.

Can I buy you a fish sandwich?

by silkybrown on Jun 27, 2008 3:21 PM PDT   0 recs

Summer 2009 Free Agents...

Oregonlive link to Free Agents of Summer ‘09

Don’t forget we stil have to sign Roy, LMA in ‘10 and GO in ‘11 to possible max deals.

by RoyDrexler on Jun 27, 2008 5:29 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

true, but

roy, lma, and oden signing have no bearing on our 2009 cap options.

well, other than Paul Allen’s willingness to go way over the cap and pay the luxury tax for years

by douglast on Jun 27, 2008 5:33 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Channing Frye developing himself into a swing 3-4 like Robert Horry.

I heard Channing on the radio a week ago.

He was saying that he approached Nate and asked him how he could get on the floor more. Nate’s response was that Nate looks to have 5 guys on the court at crunch time who can score the basketball. So, Channing has stated that he is not a banger and needs to stop banging, so he is working to become a “Spread-Four”... in other words a big man with great range on his shot who can run and create mismatches while opening the lane for guards.

Channing said he has been working non-stop on his shooting consistency at 3-point range, mid-range, free-throws and working on his ball-handling and passing.

This is exciting that Channing is picturing himself as a very versatile option for the BLazers. He could fill three roles with one roster spot. 3rd string SF and 3rd string Center and 2nd string PF.

He has the talent and skill set to become that type of player… Robert Horry Jr, minus the Jerk-off-streak that Horry has.

by Portland Dynasty on Jun 27, 2008 5:54 PM PDT   0 recs

I like Frye

his attitude is perfect. If he accomplishes that goal, lock him into that 4th spot in the big rotation.

by douglast on Jun 27, 2008 6:30 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Good for Chanaling

Bad for Sacramento.

Boston coach Doc Rivers said he was surprised by the firing of Saunders.
"I don't understand it," Rivers said. "It makes coaching not fun."

by Dheepan on Jun 27, 2008 9:10 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Maybe not so much a Horry, so much as a Bench Sheed

Blazers have a five-on-three...and they pull it back and wait for help.

by QualityPie on Jun 28, 2008 4:17 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes, I heard Frye, too...

My first reaction… Great, a guy in love with 16 foot jumpers (as an ostensible “power forward”) wants to start jacking 3s… Terrific…

BUT, the acquisition of the low post weed whacker in the Indiana now makes it OKAY. Now Nate (assuming he starts paying attention to the low post more!) has the option to go with a versatile, LMA style PF OR with a masher, depending on game situations. If Chris Bosh is eating the Blazers’ lunch, we don’t have to go soft with Frye, we now have a thumper option with Diogu.

In terms of Blazers’ rotation, I think it’s a really nice mix now. KP is signaling that he likes it also. You’ve got your PG of the future in Bayless (who can score it), Roy, Rudy, Marty, Blake, and Travis to cover the 1/2/3 slots. And Oden/Pryz in the paint, with LMA/Frye or LMA/Diogu at the 4, depending on opponent. And there’s an ultra-small-ball option in the works of Bayless/Roy/Fernandez/Outlaw/Oden in case anybody tries pulling that crap… That group should match up with the smallest and the quickest of ‘em.

A very nice mix of players.

t

"You don't live by the jumpshot, you die by the jumpshot." ---Charles Barkley, 2/7/08

by timbo on Jun 28, 2008 12:28 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I like having "The Thumper Option"

Diogu may not be part o f a “Nine Man Rotation” but I like havin’ a “Banger on The Bench” to use as needed.

"Lenny Suckerpunch Never bet on me" - Elizabeth "The Lizzard" Lowblow

by Lizzy Lowblow on Jun 28, 2008 12:35 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

It'll still be a 9 man rotation...

......................... but not necessarily the same 9 every night.

Depends who the opponent is. If you’re playing the Jefferson/Love team, you don’t play Frye…

t

"You don't live by the jumpshot, you die by the jumpshot." ---Charles Barkley, 2/7/08

by timbo on Jun 28, 2008 12:36 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

When we are in "The Play Offs" next year

This becomes very important.

"Lenny Suckerpunch Never bet on me" - Elizabeth "The Lizzard" Lowblow

by Lizzy Lowblow on Jun 28, 2008 12:42 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

In other words . . .

. . . Diogu = 6 fouls.

Blazers have a five-on-three...and they pull it back and wait for help.

by QualityPie on Jun 28, 2008 4:08 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Hard uns I'm hopin'

"Lenny Suckerpunch Never bet on me" - Elizabeth "The Lizzard" Lowblow

by Lizzy Lowblow on Jun 28, 2008 4:51 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

And

Everyone knows Lizzy like hard uns.

<-;-)

by tominhawaii on Jun 28, 2008 6:18 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

True dat

"Lenny Suckerpunch Never bet on me" - Elizabeth "The Lizzard" Lowblow

by Lizzy Lowblow on Jun 28, 2008 6:20 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Nothing supports your predictions.

50 to 55 wins? A division championship or the 4/5 seed? And a 1st round playoff victory? I can understand your wide-eyed optimism, for your team is deep, talented, young, and athletic. Nevertheless, aside from Aldridge and Roy, the Blazers are a band of unproven, inexperienced prospects and erstwhile journeymen. If the notes on the Blazer rotation are supposed to be some sort of testament as to the quality of your play next year, then I do not find it very persuasive. In any case, I don’t really see an argument that supports your prediction. Where is it?

You ought to present a substantive argument, if your aim is to be taken seriously, unless this is some postmodern exercise in performance art, and your desire to be mistaken for an intoxicated superfan is deliberate and by design.

So, how did you conclude that the Blazers will be superior to Utah next year(at best) or (at worst) superior to at least 4 other playoff contenders, namely Los Angeles, New Orleans, San Antonio, Phoenix, Houston, Dallas, Denver, and Golden State?

"I've hacked into your brain. You're throwing a party and no one's showing up."

by ignign*kt on Jun 27, 2008 6:03 PM PDT   0 recs

the post wasn't about my prediction

The post was about our current roster, our long term roster, and the players on the current roster vying for the final slots in the long term roster.

the prediction itself was just a throw in at the end of the post, and thus I never set out to try and substantiate it in any way. Is it optimistic? Yeah, it is. It assumes that we have no major health issues and that our 3 new guys all perform at least to expectations.

That said, I’ll point to the 2007-08 New Orleans Hornets as reason 1-A why it’s possible and even plausible. If you want a more sustained argument, then perhaps someone will start a fanpost for that.

by douglast on Jun 27, 2008 6:29 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

strike plausible

that’s a strectch. I stand by the rest.

by douglast on Jun 27, 2008 6:39 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I understand where you are coming from.

I thought your notes and roster projections were well done and informative, but I hope you can see where I am coming from also.

After free agent negotiations have passed and rosters have been solidified, a projection of where the Blazers will be at the end of the regular season will be a topic that is sure to be discussed.

"I've hacked into your brain. You're throwing a party and no one's showing up."

by ignign*kt on Jun 27, 2008 6:55 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I do.

In retrospect, I perhaps should have left that prediction throw-in out of the topic to not muddy the waters.

but I think it’s pretty clear that wasn’t the point of the post. Thanks for your thought-provoking comment

by douglast on Jun 27, 2008 7:04 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Another comment about this highly tangential portion of the post...

I think douglast’s prediction is optimistic but certainly not the ravings of an intoxicated superfan (I think a slow start and the sustained excellence of at least five other Western Conference teams will keep us out of the WC upper tier for at least one more year - and no, I won’t provide you with a detailed analysis).

Then again, maybe most of the media consists of intoxicated Blazer superfans as well, because I’m hearing lots of dynasty talk about the Blazers and it isn’t coming from Portland.

This franchise has been cursed ever since Walton’s ankle exploded in April of 1978. Yes, lots of great memories and a 19 year sellout streak, but ultimately cursed, culminating in the embarrassing Jail Blazer era. Now the franchise is on the verge of breaking free, and it’s amusing to see people coming out of the woodwork (not you ignign*kt), piling on the team and the fans, before they have even had a winning season.

Even Dave, who is a pastor for crying out loud, wrote a post that gave me as a Blazer fan a lot of humility and appreciation for what might come (by comparison to the trials and tribulations of others), was accused of becoming “smug” over at Blog-A-Bull. “Smug”? Pot (aka Bulls/Bears/Cubs fan), meet kettle.

MLB2PDX!!! (someday...)

by The Cactus Leaguer on Jun 27, 2008 8:51 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

We are in a pretty unique situation

We had the #1 pick in 07, right?. Now up to that time, the team who recieved the #1 averaged a 11 game inprovement over the previous year. We ended up up 9 games better than previous year ….but the #1 didn’t play. What that means for next year….beats me..but getting to 50+ games doesn’t sound out of the question at all, even with all the rookies.

GO says " Sir, you fornicated vertically…observe the consequences!

by 92wastheyear on Jun 28, 2008 11:53 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

This reminds me of The Mid to Late Seventies...

...with KP draftin’ like absorbin’ the ABA.

I’m just a Waitin’ ‘n Hopin’ for it to Rip.

"Lenny Suckerpunch Never bet on me" - Elizabeth "The Lizzard" Lowblow

by Lizzy Lowblow on Jun 28, 2008 1:02 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I have lots of proof:

1. Teams that add the #1 overall pick improve an average of 10 games better the next year so the law of averages says that we should improve by 10 games, add to taht Oden is one of those once in a generation players, even the most pseeimistic fan would agree, 10 games is at least the Blazers should improve next year aking 51 very possible.

2. There has been a precedent before. The hornets improved from 39 wins to 56 this year and were 2nd in the west improving 17 games. This is due to a combin ation of things. Chris Paul coming on and having a MVP level season in his 3rd year, Stojakovic having a healthy year and shooting 40%+ from 3pt, and West improving that much more.

3. Last year as the youngest team in the league and the 3rd youngest team in the history of the NBA, we crushed the 1st and 2nd youngest teams records, 2000-01 Chicago with 15 wins and 1953-54 Baltimore Bullets with 16. We came in at 41 wins with a team led by two sophomores who are only going to get better.

4. Utah, Los Angeles, New Orleans, San Antonio, Phoenix, Houston, Dallas, Denver, and Golden State?

3-1, 2-2, 2-2, 0-3, 0-3, 0-4, 2-2, 2-2, 2-2

those are are records against each team and of the teams that we got swept by 2 of them are very old and should be fading away, while one had 2 perpetually injured players. Add to that the age of Dallas, the contract situations of GS, and the overall turmoil that is Denver, I’d say we far pretty well against all of those teams. Of the teams that we split with, only LA and NO pose a threat to us so I could easily see us coming in at 3rd or 4th seed.

5. In addition to Oden, we are adding the best player in Europe, Rudy Fernandez, who would be a top 10 pick this year and a player that inexplicablly fell from being listed as the 4th pick on many mock drafts to 11 where we snatched him up much to the dismay of Sac, losing only one of our marginal players, Jack and our human victory cigar, McRoberts.

6. Our starting lineup of

Blake-
Roy-All star
Webster
LMA-in the running for most improved player
Oden- best big man prospect in 10 years

alone this is an upgrade from last year as Oden actually has some offensive capibilities from Pryzbilla, and our 2nd team will consist of

Bayless- a top 10 pick that somehow slipped to us
Rudy-best player in Europe
TO-top ten in 6th man voting
Frye-8th pick in the draft
Pryz- one of the top 3 R/min in the league

Our second unit is better than some starting units out there, can you honestly see

Farmar
Vujacic
Walton
Radmanovic
Turiaf

competing against them?

Yes we have unbridled optimism for the upcoming season, and we have every right to expect a 50+ win season, we went from 21 to 32 to 41 and 51 is not only what the #1 overall brings you, but our statistical average win progression as well.

by SpyderRyder on Jun 27, 2008 11:33 PM PDT to parent up   3 recs

+1

Don’t Worry Be Happy

A Time For Heroes,
It's not right for young lungs to be coughing up blood
And it's all
It's all in my hands
And its all up the walls
Well the stale chips were up and the hopes stakes were down
Until Kp came into Town!
'Sing it Petey!

by Dheepan on Jun 27, 2008 11:52 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

+1 .....as seen above

D’oh

GO says " Sir, you fornicated vertically…observe the consequences!

by 92wastheyear on Jun 28, 2008 11:55 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

+1

Well played.

MLB2PDX!!! (someday...)

by The Cactus Leaguer on Jun 28, 2008 1:39 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Well..

Point #1 is predicated on the fact that teams have the first pick to begin with. We’re a bit of an anomaly this year, getting our first selection a year late. Generally, teams with the first pick are in the NBA’s basement and have nowhere to go but up. This year, getting those ten extra wins will be more difficult.

Still, I predict ~50.

"Well, Travis just showed us that we can go to Travis Outlaw." - Nate McMillan

by 12sharks on Jun 28, 2008 3:31 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

1. There seems to be a correlation between receiving the #1 pick and an improved won-loss record, but correlation does not imply causation. You can’t simply assume the Blazers will improve by 10 games, given that there are cases where the number of win