2008/09: Setting the Table
by douglast on Jun 27, 2008 10:53 AM PDT
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PrintWhile it's still possible we could make another big move this summer, I don't see it happening. We've trimmed the roster to 13 players, not counting Koponen and Batum. Our 2008-09 opening roster is set. More importantly, I think our 09-10 and beyond 9-man rotation now looks like this:
Guards: Rudy, Roy, Bayless
Bigs: Oden, LMA, Joel, OPEN
SF: Outlaw or Martel, OPEN
That leaves 2 spots open in a 9-man rotation. We could have both of those guys on our current roster or we could have none. I think the first half of 2008-09 is about finding this out. We could have made some guesses about Martel and Outlaw now, but in the end we decided to take a bit more time to be sure. Let's take a look at the rest of the 08-09 roster and the guys who are competing for these spots in our championship rotation:
Small Forward:
Travis Outlaw: Travis needs to prove he can play primarily at the SF position. If he's going to stay with us long term, it's at that position. I think he also needs to prove he can fit in with our starting unit. If not, and Martel's not the answer either, than he may be the price we pay at the deadline or next summer to get a starter at the 3 spot. Odds on being on the opening 2009-10 roster: 80%
Martel Webster: I think Martel has about 30 games to prove he belongs in the long term plans. If he doesn't, then he'll be a guy we are shopping hard at the deadline. We don't want him taking up $11.4 million of cap space while he's shopping for a contract next summer. Odds: 35%
Bigs:
Channing Frye: If he shows the same type of game he did the last part of last season, and he's willing to be a career backup, then I think Channing is a safe bet for the 4th big spot. Working against him is his lack of inside game on both ends of the court, his contract situation, and the fact that he is LMA-lite rather than a changeup banger type. Like Martel, if he looks to be the odd man out, he's a trade deadline candidate. Odds: 50%
Ike Diogu: Unlike Channing, he is a changeup at the backup 4 spot. He plays down low on both ends, brings muscle, and isn't afraid to bang. Fairly replaceable skillset and role on this team, and he's in the same contract boat as Martel and Frye. Odds: 20%
Other Current Players:
Steve Blake: Ideal backup point guard for us. Can hit the spotup three. He's a guy you are not afraid to start and play more minutes if needed due to injuries. Has a team option at around 4.5 million for 2009-10. I think ultimately whether or not that option is picked up depends a lot more on what Sergio and Koponen do than what Blake does. We know what he brings to the table and it isn't going to change. Odds: 75%
Sergio Rodriguez: Sergio is at a crossroads. He either comes in this year with his buddy Rudy and proves he deserves some playing time, or he comes in pouting that we drafted another point and doesn't earn time. If it's the former, he could be an exciting change of pace on the 2nd unit, and could make Blake expendable. If it's the latter, then he's done. Odds: 20%
RLEC: He's either moved in a deadline deal, or expires. Odds: 0%
Overall Options:
More dealing this summer: We could still package some combination of Outlaw, Martel, Frye, and RLEC for a starting SF we really like. Conceivably, Bayless could be packaged for a veteran PG we really like as well. I think the first one will probably be explored, but not happen. I think we drafted Bayless because we want him, so I don't see that happening either.
Summer 2009: If we like any of Martel, Frye, and Diogu for our 9-man rotation, we match them or sign them ourselves. The others we could let walk if we want to preserve our immense cap space to make a big splash, either in free agency or through unbalanced (salary-wise) trades.
Trade Deadline Deal: I think this is our first choice. We can go into summer 2009 with the cap hold of any one of Frye, Martel, or Ike and STILL have around $15-$20 million in cap space. The holds of any 2 of them together though really kills most of our space. I think we take the first 30 games this year to figure out which one of the three we want to keep, and try to move the other two, either for a veteran guy we really like at the 3 or 4 or for younger guys who have more time left on their rookie deals. We could also package them with RLEC for a starter-quality player if we find someone we are really in love with.
Whichever way we go, we are sitting in the catbird's seat. We really can't lose at this point, no matter what we do. Any "frosting" yet to be had is going to be at the small forward position. If Martel and/or Outlaw aren't the guy, then bammo - we have all the tools to get the guy.
Assuming no major injuries, I predict 50-55 wins this year, 3rd to 5th in the west, and a 1st round win. We come back in 09-10 with our roster and rotation questions answered, a bit more experience, perhaps a new high-profile player, and we are ready to make a push for the 2010 title.
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This gets a rec
I agree yo…
I cant wait 127 days till the start of the 2008/9 season!!!!!!!!!!
too bad im a poor college student/single mom and cant afford season tix lol :)
That which prematurely arrives at perfection soon perishes. - Marcus Fabius Quintilian (35-95AD) Roman Rhetorician, Critic
Excellent analysis, as usual
I always appreciate your thoroughness. You get a rec from me.
I won’t be surprised to see Martell, Channing, or both get an extension this summer, though. I think they’ve both shown enough to get a moderately priced extension, and if they are willing to take it, it will happen.
I think you underrate Martell’s chances significantly. I think you overrate Sergio’s chances slightly. Otherwise, you are spot on, IMO, even to your point about Blake’s future being somewhat dependent on Sergio/PK.
Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo
thanks for the compliment
I put Sergio as high as I did primarily because of his contract. He’ll have 1 year left on his deal after this one, at very little money. He could be a throw-in piece in a deal, but if not, he comes back and sits the bench again. I put his odds of cracking the rotation at a much much lower number.
You are probably right on Martel. I’m personally quite a bit higher on him, but I just have a weird vibe that it’s either going to be Travis or Martel, but not not both. Primarily due to Martel’s contract deal, which Dave detailed the other day.
I agree - at least for Martell
We can draft backup PFs easier than starting SFs and Martell likely has done enough to earn a three year $5M per contract. Diogu and Frye will still have to excell to survive and likely won’t like the $ offered here ($3-4M for one of them?).
Aldridge said. "We feel like we can beat any team. We feel like we can beat the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, whoever any night right now, and we'll still be here when those teams get old and their guys retire. We're going to be here for a long time."
i think frye and blake fill those open spots this year with in the future if they pan out
Koponen and Batum eventually earning the spots
Leaving this blank 'til I think of something funny
this does mean i think that we are going to use a four guard rotation
at least for a while. I think that Blake will start at the beginning of the season next year with Bayless quickly earning the starting spot. I think if Batum makes the rotation in the future we will use Travis as a big/sf
Leaving this blank 'til I think of something funny
I think you're spot on
Our future three guard will be Roy, Bayless, and Rudy.
Finland may stay but will be back up to those guys and Blake will help Bayless Settle in. Can Bayless be a starter this year? If so… wow.
Ford: Bill, you're claiming victory already? Have you had a "Mission Accomplished" banner printed yet?
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/columns/story?page=DraftDebate-080624
The Fifteen Man Roster
I was going to put this in a diary, but since you already started one, I’ll just rec yours and put it here:
Last season, we ended the year with Pryz, LMA, Web, Roy, Blake, Frye, Outlaw, Jones, Jack, Sergio, Raef, McBob, Darius Miles’ ghost, Wafer, and Oden.
We now have subtracted from that list five players: Jones (FA, though might come back), Jack (trade), Miles (waived), McBob (trade), and Wafer (FA, probably gone for good).
We have added two on draft day who will, barring further deals, no doubt be on the opening day roster, in Bayless (#11 pick), and Diogu (trade). In addition, everyone expects Rudy Fernandez to show up.
That leaves two open roster slots. Wild cards include Nicholas Batum (will we see any of him?), Koponen (is he ready), and a few other euros stashed overseas, including Joel Freeland. We could also decide to add an inexpensive veteran—James Jones, should we re-sign him, or some other journeyman player who’s been ‘round the block.
One other interesting note-John Canzano is again stirring the pot, pronouncing Trout as the Blazers starting SF next year. While he will no doubt compete for the job-I don’t think Martell is shoved aside that easily. Also, Trout has done better coming off the bench, whereas Webster seems to do better in the starting lineup. The SF quandry will be interesting to see.
So, some questions:
1) How do you guys think we should use the open roster slots? Two vets? Two Euro prospects? One of each?
2) If we do go after a vet, how hard do we target James Jones? Is he this year’s Ime Udoka?
3) Martell or Outlaw at the SF?
4) While I expect Blake to be the starting PG on opening day—who will be the starter next to Roy by the end of the year? Blake? Bayless? Rudy? Sergio!!?
by EngineerScotty on Jun 27, 2008 11:23 AM PDT reply actions
answers
1) One Euro, leave one open (which KP again said on the radio this morning he prefers)
2) Not sure we do, unless we don’t sign any of our Euros. If so, I think JJ33 would be good, but unlikely to happen (same as Ime – he’ll want more years than we want to offer)
3) Martel should start. I think he’s a better fit with the starting unit, and I think Outlaw fits better with the 2nd unit.
4) Bayless
Canzano is "stirring the pot"
That’s perfect language for what he’s constantly trying to do.
As far as #3 goes, I think the answer is both. Martell should start, with Trout being our super-sixth-man. Trout has shown that he doesn’t perform that well as a starter, and he brings some great energy off the bench. I see the two of them playing a similar number of minutes, but Martell will start.
Trade Freeland!
by rockingharder on Jun 27, 2008 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions
My answers
1) Koponen gets one of the spots, so he doesn’t sign a bad contract with a big Euro team and get lost to us forever. Batum gets the other if he wants it.
2) I doubt we go after a vet. If so, we don’t target Jones. He’s got a better deal lined up, or he wouldn’t have opted out, and he’s not worth a better deal to us with this lineup. He’ll go with a strong team somewhere that feels like they need a 3 point threat off the bench.
3) I think Martell will start. If I had any doubt, now that Canzano says Travis, I’m sure of Martell.
4) I have no clue who will start next to Roy, either opening day or in the WCF. Could be Blake. Could be Bayless. Could be Rudy. I sort of expect Blake. I expect Bayless to be starting within a year and a half, though.
Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo
my opinion on the webster/ outlaw situation
I like both of them long term. If martell improves again next year, it just doesnt make sense to trade him…..
as far as the starting position. I’m a believer that you put your best five on the floor to start…Outlaw is the fourth best player on our team. That says it all….While he is great coming off the bench, i think he could be used just as effectively to crush teams early…...then of course, when it comes to crunch time,..outlaw already has proven himself. He is Mr. Fourth Quarter and all
by BroyTheTruth on Jun 27, 2008 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions
sidenote
i love the jerryd bayless pick..I think he could fit the mold of devin harris, that so many blazer fans were hoping for…and from what i can tell, he is a better scorer…..great pick kp
by BroyTheTruth on Jun 27, 2008 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Travis doesn't have the stamina to play all those minutes
He plays well int he 4th because he is rested.
Boston coach Doc Rivers said he was surprised by the firing of Saunders.
"I don't understand it," Rivers said. "It makes coaching not fun."
Great post
Pasting my comment from earlier to add to a conversation that’s not about to slip off the page:
We should keep this roster (every key player) until the trade deadline at the very least, and maybe the whole season if the team is gelling and nothing great comes up with trades. The only trade I would like to do during the summer to consolidate a little bit is Sergio and Diogu for an expiring contract we can put on the inactive list and a good future first round pick. That leaves us with two units of:
Bayless/Roy/Webster/Aldridge/Oden
and
Blake/Fernandez/Outlaw/Frye/Pryzbilla
while
Koponen and Batum pick up the remaining scrap minutes and the rest are inactive
No reasons to complain; every single player in that rotation is quality. That roster itself could develop into a championship contender. If we stick with the roster for the season and it still has major issues to address, we can evaluate where we are and make moves with our cap space next summer. We’re in a pretty nice place right now.
Diogu is an expiring contract
Isn’t he? I think having him around is about as good as we could hope for. Frankly, I am LOVING this lineup from top to Batum.
Or Bantum.
NB?
BATMAN
I think I’ll do a mockup for our new Cult Hero.
Boston coach Doc Rivers said he was surprised by the firing of Saunders.
"I don't understand it," Rivers said. "It makes coaching not fun."
Paul Allen is Batman
Rich bachelor with nerdy gadgets.
President of the Petteri Koponen fan club.
by Sabonis4Ever on Jun 27, 2008 10:49 PM PDT up reply actions
I think that "White Unit" lineup
would be able to beat the Blazer’s starting 5 from a couple years ago.
I love this draft
partially because it sets us up really well for a deadline deal, where RLEC will have the most value and when a couple of teams might be a little desperate and make a bad move (see Memphis, Pau Gasol). I suppose something could happen over the summer, too, but that makes less sense to me because some of our valuable trade assets (Martell, Outlaw, Frye, even Sergio maybe) will have a chance to increase their value during the first half of this season.
I see the first half of the season as a chance to get Oden in game shape and showcase some of our young talent for a deadline deal. Whatever space is left on the roster we can fill in with some of our promising Euro talent. Then we make a push with our shiny new piece for one of the lower playoff seeds in the West. We make a series of it and get some experience under our belts, although I don’t see how we can win a series, before reloading for a deep run in 2010.
Also, I think Bayless is a steal and am really excited about his future in the backcourt with Roy. All he needs to do is run the break OK and set up Roy to handle the ball in the halfcourt. And the guy can shoot, which is another requisite for that position. I’m not too high on the “pure point” need, we need someone to be the BJ Armstrong to Roy’s Jordan and I think Bayless is that guy.
Time to Learn
We’ll address the next step before the trade deadline in early spring prior to the end of the season. KP did a great job of improving the team yet keeping all of our options available. My guess is that the way you solve cap issues is you re-sign the players you want to keep early, and trade the others. Who-ever that is. KP’s not going to let it get out of hand. Even if we like what we’ve got after 40-50 games, you know very well he’ll sit down with every cap player and make a deal then – not wait. Right now, we have the cap space, 4-#2’s, and a number of pieces. I don’t see any movement right now on Blake, Roy, Fernandez or Bayless. Nor on Oden, Aldridge, Pryz or Frye. Outlaw and Webster make up the 10 KP said he really liked. The rest, such as Koponen, Sergio, Diogu, LaFrentz and Batum are in the third unit. Only if we’re not happy with the Outlaw/Webster production, will we likely package one with the cap/#2’s/other players from the third unit, and then pick up a SF. But we have 40-50 games to figure that out. At the same time, the word on Batum is he wants to stay here – as it is on Koponen. If that’s accurate, then they’ll pick up the last two spots on the roster. As far as Batum goes, KP/Mac liked him. They’re also aware that the way he was used in Europe only gave him 7.6 shot attempts a game. If he’d had 20, like a lot of these American youngsters, his points would have more than doubled. I think they see something I may not – just like they saw something with Fernandez no-one else really zeroed in on. As a result, we may start to be pleasantly surprised as the season gets underway. KP hasn’t wasted one of those 1st round low picks yet.
first post I ever recced
But I don’t know how to spell recced. Maybe it’s with a ck instead of a cc.
Curious to see what happens with bah-Tooom. If he makes the roster he won’t get many minutes, but maybe he’ll be exciting. Don’t know nothin’ about his game.
Winning is everything.
I wreck lots of posts
but they are always my own.
Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo
Good stuff, douglast
I still think the team would benefit greatly from being able to make one more deal – a veteran SF. Think Caron Butler or Tayshaun Prince or perhaps even Mike Miller.
I’d be open to trading Martell Webster in a package for any of those 3 – then let Outlaw do what he does best – coming off the bench to backup the SF and PF positions.
Such a deal might cut into cap space in 2009, but so be it.
In fact, I put a scenario together where the Blazers trade Przybilla, Webster, Sergio and a 2nd round pick in 2009 to Minnesota for Mike Miller and their 2010 1st round pick (top 15 protected). Then sign Frye to an extension this summer (he’ll make $6 million in 2009-10) and get Rudy, Batum, Bayless and Koponen all under contract this summer. You let LaFrentz and Diogu walk at the end of the year as UFA’s and renounce their rights. That would leave about $13 million in cap space in July of 2009 ($18 million if the team didn’t pick up Blake’s option). That’s not a bad scenario, IMO.
thanks
I like Miller too. I wouldn’t have been sad to see us get him yesterday, and I won’t be sad to see us get him now.
I’m not holding onto the 2009 cap space as a holy grail anymore. The number of guys who are going to be UFAs that I even like is small. The number of those that would fit a need on our team and our team culture is even smaller—it might be zero. The cap space, if used, will be used for taking back more salary in a trade for a guy we like, NOT in a free agent signing.
I think we wait for now though. Miller might still be there for us at the trade deadline, for a package very similar to what you are suggesting. And I don’t think we trade Joel until at least then, unless we get back another center who can duplicate what he gives us.
No
And the Rockets won’t give him to us for cheap. Plus he’s 30.
Maybe we need to get rid of one SF like Travis or Martell but not now.
Boston coach Doc Rivers said he was surprised by the firing of Saunders.
"I don't understand it," Rivers said. "It makes coaching not fun."
I think you're right
For a long time I have been proposing trades to get Battier. I think that he doesn’t fit age wise. 26 or 27 years old tops. I have begun to search for that one special player, and I can’t find him yet. LeBron is the only one, but he would have to demand a trade to Portland (not likely) and Cleveland would have to fall off the map (also unlikely).
Childress
was a popular name. I don’t see him as a huge upgrade in anything but the hair department. But seriously, getting that fro on this team would be HUGE for morale after losing JJ’s ‘stache.
Batum is supposedly a lockdown D guy
I think his pick was very good as he was projected to go in the top 14 last year.
He supposedly has freakish sthleticism, good footwork and long arms. He has good BBIQ and with those arms can get in passing lanes. During the 2007 nike world hoops summit, which BTW is like a 5th of our new roster, (Batum, Kopo, Bayless) Batum had 4 steals:
http://www.insidehoops.com/hoop-summit.shtml
I think one of the reasons that KP took Batum as that he had been highly rated as a D’er, as much as I liked Arthur and Dorsey, they were more low post D’ers and with Oden and Pryz anchoring the post D Arthur and Dorsey, while nice, are redundant. In going Batum, KP can get a perimeter defender like Pippen, who is Batums fav player and who he has modeled his game after.
We have offense at the SF position now with Webster and TO, Batum can add that D presence on the wing hopefully.
by SpyderRyder on Jun 27, 2008 10:49 PM PDT up reply actions
You don't think Martell is defense?
It would seem to contradict what Coach Nate has said but his statements were in the “become” context rather than “arrived”. Martell appears to be a better athlete than any of those players except LeBron. This year will tell how Martell has embraced that role.
Of course in two or three years Batum may have blown by him!
Aldridge said. "We feel like we can beat any team. We feel like we can beat the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, whoever any night right now, and we'll still be here when those teams get old and their guys retire. We're going to be here for a long time."
Why would we trade Joel ?
You don’t trade a selfless, athletic C who rebounds, sets picks and
anchors your interior D. GO is going to be GREAT, but will have foul trouble
and or (fingers crossed) injury possibilities. We have the best one-two
Center combo and you don’t mess with that advantage.
Martell would be heading into his senior year in college. He has bought into
Nate’s vision of being a lock-down defender and improved in that regard this
last season. He’s already got the outside shot (needing to add more consistancy),
has shown improvement in moving without the ball and with his stated
emphasis on improving his ball handling this summer will be taking the
ball to the rack more. We’ve seen that he can finnish at the rim, but with GO
& Smooth drawing more doubles, he’ll have more room to attack the rim or
get his shot off. Get over the bias of taking him instead of Paul/Williams and
allow him to blend into our unique chemisty/TEAM. Rip City !!!!
BRING BACK OUR BLAZERS TO SO. OREGON !!!! COINCAST SUCKS !!!!!!
It's GO time !
Central Oregon as well!
I can see DISH getting it if Comcast were not so greedy. Recently Comcast has made deals in other areas of the country for NBA coverage carriage for much less than they are demanding in Oregon. Blazers are still pretty dumb in the PR department to allow this to drag on.
Aldridge said. "We feel like we can beat any team. We feel like we can beat the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, whoever any night right now, and we'll still be here when those teams get old and their guys retire. We're going to be here for a long time."
What to do with RLEC?
All of that cap space we could have is interesting assuming RLEC is allowed to simply come off of the books. However, if we are looking to sign a big-name free agent (and I’m assuming it would likely be a small forward) what available big-time small forward is out there that fits our timeline? The only one that is remotely close who will be a free agent after this season is Shawn Marion. However, he is already in that 30 year old range. Is there someone else I am missing?
The other option is to trade his expiring contract before the february trade deadline. Our best case scenario is to find someone who is in the process of gutting their own roster and doesn’t mind sacrificing big time expensive talent. Otherwise we are going to have to throw in about $5-6 million dollars worth of players salaries along with Raef’s contract, and draft picks to pick up this mega free-agent if it occurs via trade before this year’s trade deadline. That would probably mean Raef + Webster + Frye + $ + future draft picks. Then you just have to hope other teams go for it.
Can I buy you a fish sandwich?
Summer 2009 Free Agents...
Oregonlive link to Free Agents of Summer ‘09
Don’t forget we stil have to sign Roy, LMA in ‘10 and GO in ‘11 to possible max deals.
Channing Frye developing himself into a swing 3-4 like Robert Horry.
I heard Channing on the radio a week ago.
He was saying that he approached Nate and asked him how he could get on the floor more. Nate’s response was that Nate looks to have 5 guys on the court at crunch time who can score the basketball. So, Channing has stated that he is not a banger and needs to stop banging, so he is working to become a “Spread-Four”... in other words a big man with great range on his shot who can run and create mismatches while opening the lane for guards.
Channing said he has been working non-stop on his shooting consistency at 3-point range, mid-range, free-throws and working on his ball-handling and passing.
This is exciting that Channing is picturing himself as a very versatile option for the BLazers. He could fill three roles with one roster spot. 3rd string SF and 3rd string Center and 2nd string PF.
He has the talent and skill set to become that type of player… Robert Horry Jr, minus the Jerk-off-streak that Horry has.
by Portland Dynasty on Jun 27, 2008 5:54 PM PDT reply actions
I like Frye
his attitude is perfect. If he accomplishes that goal, lock him into that 4th spot in the big rotation.
Good for Chanaling
Bad for Sacramento.
Boston coach Doc Rivers said he was surprised by the firing of Saunders.
"I don't understand it," Rivers said. "It makes coaching not fun."
Maybe not so much a Horry, so much as a Bench Sheed
Blazers have a five-on-three...and they pull it back and wait for help.
Yes, I heard Frye, too...
My first reaction… Great, a guy in love with 16 foot jumpers (as an ostensible “power forward”) wants to start jacking 3s… Terrific…
BUT, the acquisition of the low post weed whacker in the Indiana now makes it OKAY. Now Nate (assuming he starts paying attention to the low post more!) has the option to go with a versatile, LMA style PF OR with a masher, depending on game situations. If Chris Bosh is eating the Blazers’ lunch, we don’t have to go soft with Frye, we now have a thumper option with Diogu.
In terms of Blazers’ rotation, I think it’s a really nice mix now. KP is signaling that he likes it also. You’ve got your PG of the future in Bayless (who can score it), Roy, Rudy, Marty, Blake, and Travis to cover the 1/2/3 slots. And Oden/Pryz in the paint, with LMA/Frye or LMA/Diogu at the 4, depending on opponent. And there’s an ultra-small-ball option in the works of Bayless/Roy/Fernandez/Outlaw/Oden in case anybody tries pulling that crap… That group should match up with the smallest and the quickest of ‘em.
A very nice mix of players.
t
"You don't live by the jumpshot, you die by the jumpshot." ---Charles Barkley, 2/7/08
I like having "The Thumper Option"
Diogu may not be part o f a “Nine Man Rotation” but I like havin’ a “Banger on The Bench” to use as needed.
"Lenny Suckerpunch Never bet on me" - Elizabeth "The Lizzard" Lowblow
by Lizzy Lowblow on Jun 28, 2008 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions
It'll still be a 9 man rotation...
......................... but not necessarily the same 9 every night.
Depends who the opponent is. If you’re playing the Jefferson/Love team, you don’t play Frye…
t
"You don't live by the jumpshot, you die by the jumpshot." ---Charles Barkley, 2/7/08
When we are in "The Play Offs" next year
This becomes very important.
"Lenny Suckerpunch Never bet on me" - Elizabeth "The Lizzard" Lowblow
by Lizzy Lowblow on Jun 28, 2008 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions
In other words . . .
. . . Diogu = 6 fouls.
Blazers have a five-on-three...and they pull it back and wait for help.
Hard uns I'm hopin'
"Lenny Suckerpunch Never bet on me" - Elizabeth "The Lizzard" Lowblow
by Lizzy Lowblow on Jun 28, 2008 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions
True dat
"Lenny Suckerpunch Never bet on me" - Elizabeth "The Lizzard" Lowblow
by Lizzy Lowblow on Jun 28, 2008 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Nothing supports your predictions.
50 to 55 wins? A division championship or the 4/5 seed? And a 1st round playoff victory? I can understand your wide-eyed optimism, for your team is deep, talented, young, and athletic. Nevertheless, aside from Aldridge and Roy, the Blazers are a band of unproven, inexperienced prospects and erstwhile journeymen. If the notes on the Blazer rotation are supposed to be some sort of testament as to the quality of your play next year, then I do not find it very persuasive. In any case, I don’t really see an argument that supports your prediction. Where is it?
You ought to present a substantive argument, if your aim is to be taken seriously, unless this is some postmodern exercise in performance art, and your desire to be mistaken for an intoxicated superfan is deliberate and by design.
So, how did you conclude that the Blazers will be superior to Utah next year(at best) or (at worst) superior to at least 4 other playoff contenders, namely Los Angeles, New Orleans, San Antonio, Phoenix, Houston, Dallas, Denver, and Golden State?
"I've hacked into your brain. You're throwing a party and no one's showing up."
the post wasn't about my prediction
The post was about our current roster, our long term roster, and the players on the current roster vying for the final slots in the long term roster.
the prediction itself was just a throw in at the end of the post, and thus I never set out to try and substantiate it in any way. Is it optimistic? Yeah, it is. It assumes that we have no major health issues and that our 3 new guys all perform at least to expectations.
That said, I’ll point to the 2007-08 New Orleans Hornets as reason 1-A why it’s possible and even plausible. If you want a more sustained argument, then perhaps someone will start a fanpost for that.
strike plausible
that’s a strectch. I stand by the rest.
I understand where you are coming from.
I thought your notes and roster projections were well done and informative, but I hope you can see where I am coming from also.
After free agent negotiations have passed and rosters have been solidified, a projection of where the Blazers will be at the end of the regular season will be a topic that is sure to be discussed.
"I've hacked into your brain. You're throwing a party and no one's showing up."
Another comment about this highly tangential portion of the post...
I think douglast’s prediction is optimistic but certainly not the ravings of an intoxicated superfan (I think a slow start and the sustained excellence of at least five other Western Conference teams will keep us out of the WC upper tier for at least one more year - and no, I won’t provide you with a detailed analysis).
Then again, maybe most of the media consists of intoxicated Blazer superfans as well, because I’m hearing lots of dynasty talk about the Blazers and it isn’t coming from Portland.
This franchise has been cursed ever since Walton’s ankle exploded in April of 1978. Yes, lots of great memories and a 19 year sellout streak, but ultimately cursed, culminating in the embarrassing Jail Blazer era. Now the franchise is on the verge of breaking free, and it’s amusing to see people coming out of the woodwork (not you ignign*kt), piling on the team and the fans, before they have even had a winning season.
Even Dave, who is a pastor for crying out loud, wrote a post that gave me as a Blazer fan a lot of humility and appreciation for what might come (by comparison to the trials and tribulations of others), was accused of becoming “smug” over at Blog-A-Bull. “Smug”? Pot (aka Bulls/Bears/Cubs fan), meet kettle.
MLB2PDX!!! (someday...)
by The Cactus Leaguer on Jun 27, 2008 8:51 PM PDT up reply actions
We are in a pretty unique situation
We had the #1 pick in 07, right?. Now up to that time, the team who recieved the #1 averaged a 11 game inprovement over the previous year. We ended up up 9 games better than previous year ….but the #1 didn’t play. What that means for next year….beats me..but getting to 50+ games doesn’t sound out of the question at all, even with all the rookies.
GO says " Sir, you fornicated vertically…observe the consequences!
by 92wastheyear on Jun 28, 2008 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions
This reminds me of The Mid to Late Seventies...
...with KP draftin’ like absorbin’ the ABA.
I’m just a Waitin’ ‘n Hopin’ for it to Rip.
"Lenny Suckerpunch Never bet on me" - Elizabeth "The Lizzard" Lowblow
by Lizzy Lowblow on Jun 28, 2008 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions
I have lots of proof:
1. Teams that add the #1 overall pick improve an average of 10 games better the next year so the law of averages says that we should improve by 10 games, add to taht Oden is one of those once in a generation players, even the most pseeimistic fan would agree, 10 games is at least the Blazers should improve next year aking 51 very possible.
2. There has been a precedent before. The hornets improved from 39 wins to 56 this year and were 2nd in the west improving 17 games. This is due to a combin ation of things. Chris Paul coming on and having a MVP level season in his 3rd year, Stojakovic having a healthy year and shooting 40%+ from 3pt, and West improving that much more.
3. Last year as the youngest team in the league and the 3rd youngest team in the history of the NBA, we crushed the 1st and 2nd youngest teams records, 2000-01 Chicago with 15 wins and 1953-54 Baltimore Bullets with 16. We came in at 41 wins with a team led by two sophomores who are only going to get better.
4. Utah, Los Angeles, New Orleans, San Antonio, Phoenix, Houston, Dallas, Denver, and Golden State?
3-1, 2-2, 2-2, 0-3, 0-3, 0-4, 2-2, 2-2, 2-2those are are records against each team and of the teams that we got swept by 2 of them are very old and should be fading away, while one had 2 perpetually injured players. Add to that the age of Dallas, the contract situations of GS, and the overall turmoil that is Denver, I’d say we far pretty well against all of those teams. Of the teams that we split with, only LA and NO pose a threat to us so I could easily see us coming in at 3rd or 4th seed.
5. In addition to Oden, we are adding the best player in Europe, Rudy Fernandez, who would be a top 10 pick this year and a player that inexplicablly fell from being listed as the 4th pick on many mock drafts to 11 where we snatched him up much to the dismay of Sac, losing only one of our marginal players, Jack and our human victory cigar, McRoberts.
6. Our starting lineup of
Blake-
Roy-All star
Webster
LMA-in the running for most improved player
Oden- best big man prospect in 10 years
alone this is an upgrade from last year as Oden actually has some offensive capibilities from Pryzbilla, and our 2nd team will consist of
Bayless- a top 10 pick that somehow slipped to us
Rudy-best player in Europe
TO-top ten in 6th man voting
Frye-8th pick in the draft
Pryz- one of the top 3 R/min in the league
Our second unit is better than some starting units out there, can you honestly see
Farmar
Vujacic
Walton
Radmanovic
Turiaf
competing against them?
Yes we have unbridled optimism for the upcoming season, and we have every right to expect a 50+ win season, we went from 21 to 32 to 41 and 51 is not only what the #1 overall brings you, but our statistical average win progression as well.
by SpyderRyder on Jun 27, 2008 11:33 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
+1
Don’t Worry Be Happy
A Time For Heroes,
It's not right for young lungs to be coughing up blood
And it's all
It's all in my hands
And its all up the walls
Well the stale chips were up and the hopes stakes were down
Until Kp came into Town!
'Sing it Petey!
+1 .....as seen above
D’oh
GO says " Sir, you fornicated vertically…observe the consequences!
by 92wastheyear on Jun 28, 2008 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions
+1
Well played.
MLB2PDX!!! (someday...)
by The Cactus Leaguer on Jun 28, 2008 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Well..
Point #1 is predicated on the fact that teams have the first pick to begin with. We’re a bit of an anomaly this year, getting our first selection a year late. Generally, teams with the first pick are in the NBA’s basement and have nowhere to go but up. This year, getting those ten extra wins will be more difficult.
Still, I predict ~50.
"Well, Travis just showed us that we can go to Travis Outlaw." - Nate McMillan
1. There seems to be a correlation between receiving the #1 pick and an improved won-loss record, but correlation does not imply causation. You can’t simply assume the Blazers will improve by 10 games, given that there are cases where the number of wins declined despite a #1 pick.
There are even puzzling cases where teams improved despite a disappointing season from their #1 pick. How do you explain the Wizards improving by 17 games? Kwame Brown, I’m lookin’ at you.
2. A healthy team will play better than an injured one. Brilliant. Make a case for why Roy will play MVP basketball for an entire season. I don’t really see Aldridge regressing, and I’m curious about how Oden’s presence will impact his teammates. I know he can rebound and defend; what do you see Oden doing positively for both himself and his teammates on the offensive end? And how does that translate into more victories?
3. Congratulations on being the best 3rd youngest team ever, or whatever that was. What was that? Why isn’t Aldridge a better rebounder? He’s 6’11.
4. The West
a. Stoudamire hasn’t even hit his prime yet. Phoenix is still a force to be reckoned with.
b. Yeah, well I’d be worried if my team were swept by an injury-plagued Rockets team. And were it not for that ankle, Manu would probably have put the Spurs on his back and taken the Lakers to the limit.
c. Dallas isn’t that old; ok they’re pretty old. But Kidd now has a year to gel with the team. Yeah but they’re not looking so hot or very deep. I’ll give you that one.
d. Philly may make a run at either Ellis or Biedrins. Baron wants to stay. G-State started the year off 0-7 because of Stephen Jackson’s suspension. With him in the lineup, they went 48-24. And they have the Power of Youth, like your beloved Blazers. That’s got to count for something.
e. Maybe this is the year Carmelo grows up and leads his team to the 2nd round. Or maybe this is another slacktastic year and the Nuggets still win close to 50.
f. For the sake of accuracy, please refer to the Lakers in all future postings as a level 5 threat.
5. I don’t know anything about Rudy Fernandez, and I’m curious about how Bayless will be able to develop because of the logjam at both guard spots. X-Factors for sure.
6. If you see Farmar, Vujacic, Walton, Radmanovic, and Turiaf on the floor, someone is being blown out. (Hint: not the Lakers). I really like Travis Outlaw. I’m not crazy about Frye or the Vanilla Gorilla. We also have Trevor Ariza. I’m going to suspend my judgment until I get a closer look at your backup guards.
I think 51 wins is a reasonable estimate. 8th place in the Western Conference. A first round matchup with the Lakers would be great.
"I've hacked into your brain. You're throwing a party and no one's showing up."
Why I think we will be in the playoffs
1. Kwambe is a scrub. Greg Oden is looked at as possibly the best center of this generation. The coaching staff think he’s going to be a hall of famer. Adding him, the second best PG prospect of this draft, and the best player in Europe should at least be +10 in the win column.
2. Oden can catch the basketball and dunk on anyone. Oden also gets up and down the court extremely well for a big man just like Aldridge, he should be a beast in transition. This is about 50x the offensive production Joel Pryzbilla can bring. God bless Joel Pryzbilla but he has oven mitts for hands. This means we on’t have to play 4 on 5 on offense. Hoooray. I also think the stuff about Oden being really raw offensively is mostly speculation, I think he will surprise some people.
3. Most teams are just better on paper than they are on the court. Look at SA they are arguably the best team in the league and they have 3 good to great players and a bunch of role players.
The Blazers are better on the court than they are on paper. Our starting lineup last year had a point guard who really should be backup, a center with teflon coated hands, and an inconsistent 21yr old at SF. Meanwhile on the bench we lacked a backup shooting guard, a backup center, and James Jones was injured like 1/4 of the season, oh and we played Travis Outlaw at the 4 more than anywhere else. With that hodgepodge lineup we won 41 games.
3. It’s a young team but it’s a smart team, with good basketball instincts, and one that never quits. You don’t win 41 games on accident, the only Blazer that really regressed last year was Sergio Rodriguez. Expect LMA to average 20pts a game and Brandon’s play last year really wasn’t a fluke, he can ball. Just because you are tall doesn’t make you a good rebounder, LMA was still a little too small to really bang around the post, I expect him to average about 8-9 a game this season.
4. A. Amare is an amazing talent but he isn’t a winner, he’s selfish and isn’t committed to playing on both ends of the floor.
B. The Spurs lack depth. Really besides Duncan, Parker, and Manu who is going to put up points? Michael Finely? Bowen? Vaughn? Manu broke down late in the playoffs because he was taxed from his rigorous regular season, it took a toll, it wasn’t just a coincidence, and this year he is training for the olympics. I expect the Spurs to play poorly at the start of the season (then again it seems like they always do). The Rockets should be better this year but who knows with Yao and the Olympics, and it’s not like Tmac is AC Greene or anything.
C. Yeah…they shot themselves in the face. Oh and they need to fill 8 roster spots.
D. You really don’t thin the Blazers are better than a team that plays defense by jacking up thress faster than you can get it up to the half court line? Oh and Joel Pryzbilla demolished the warriors inside last season. Just think of what Oden will do.
E. Right, before or after his DUI trial finishes? They don’t have a single decent point guard on the team and AI really has no idea what to do in half court. Oh and no one besides Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin plays defense.
F. Lakers will be better than last year.
5. Rudy is better than Gallinari. There’s no logjam at PG. Steve Blake and Bayless split the minutes.
6. Bayless and Farmar should be about equal. Rudy>>>Sasha. Frye is about as good, if not better than Ariza. Travis is as good if not better than Walton. Pryz is a better rebounder but isn’t an energy like Turiaf.
A Time For Heroes,
It's not right for young lungs to be coughing up blood
And it's all
It's all in my hands
And its all up the walls
Well the stale chips were up and the hopes stakes were down
Until Kp came into Town!
'Sing it Petey!
Welcome to Blazers Edge
On the Postin’ side o’ it.
An agressive first post, elicitin’ response. Nice move.
“Keep On BEdgin’”
"Lenny Suckerpunch Never bet on me" - Elizabeth "The Lizzard" Lowblow
by Lizzy Lowblow on Jun 28, 2008 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions
What I mean by intoxication.
I was delighted when Kupchak stole Gasol. What Laker fan wouldn’t be? But, shortly afterward, a lot of fans began to openly fantasize about the return of Bynum, furiously masturbating to championship fantasies. And it got worse. Laker fanblogs turned into orgiastic circle-jerks. Three game losing streak? Just wait ‘til Bynum gets back. Outmuscled by Utah? Wait ‘til Bynum gets back. Completely dismantled by Boston? Just wait ‘til next year, Celtics! Bynum!
That’s what I mean by intoxicated. Just kind of being drunk with potential excellence.
Based on how reasonable you both are being, I’m pretty certain you aren’t “intoxicated.” It’s just that sort of behavior that I find really irritating. My first post was a knee-jerk reaction. My mistake.
But there’s good reason to be optimistic if you’re a Blazer fan. You’ve got a shrewd GM, a passionate owner, a respectable coaching staff, and a treasure trove of young, gifted players down low and on the wing. That’s a formula for a dynasty. But it’s also a recipe for crushing disappointment; I can attest.
And as any long-suffering Celtics fan will attest, a championship is worth the wait.
"I've hacked into your brain. You're throwing a party and no one's showing up."
-1
You have cursed twice in one comment.
I won’t tell ya how ya done it.
Your assignment; Find Your Curse word and please. don’t use it again.
"Lenny Suckerpunch Never bet on me" - Elizabeth "The Lizzard" Lowblow
I've been sent to the back
TWEET !!!
"Lenny Suckerpunch Never bet on me" - Elizabeth "The Lizzard" Lowblow
by Lizzy Lowblow on Jun 28, 2008 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions
There is precedence for the argument
of significant improvement from a #1 pick obtained by an already good team. San Antonio was one of the best teams in the league with David Robinson. When he missed all but 6 games in 1996-1997. the Spurs dropped to 20-62. That gained them the #1 pick of Tim Duncan which then vaulted them to a 56-26 record the following year and the championship the 2nd year with the league’s best record of 37-13 (shortened year). Now immediately we say whoa David Robinson isn’t here to play with Greg! But LeMarcus is and, top to bottom, we have much more talent than that 1997-1998 team but net as much experience. Robinson and Duncan combined for 44% of their points and 48% of their rebounds because nobody could cover either one-on-one. Shows what two dominant bigs can bring.
So the addition of the 2nd great big man along with two more scorers and another year of maturity for these guys makes all things possible.
Where I disagree with your premise it that Martell has better odds than Travis and Martell will be given the time to continue to grow. My best estimate is that he will be asked to sign a 3 year extension starting at $5M per year prior to October. If he believes in himself and wants to win some championships he signs. If not, he is trade bait in February. I think he will sign. Travis is not part of the salary cap protection so I predict he stays through his current contract (2 more years). Martell is 90% and Travis is 80%.
So many believe we must have a point guard on the floor at all times but I disagree. The abckup to Roy will get 12-13 minutes average like this year. That is simply not enough for Rudy or for Bayless. Rudy and Roy must play some together and at times will also be teamed with Bayless to go small. Ultimately if both Rudy and Bayless are the players we hope for, I believe the three will eat up most of our guard minutes.
Aldridge said. "We feel like we can beat any team. We feel like we can beat the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, whoever any night right now, and we'll still be here when those teams get old and their guys retire. We're going to be here for a long time."
I hope marty signs that type of deal too
for one, it should give him some confidence and security. for two, it improves our options whether we want to keep him or not. if he doesn’t sign, we almost have to shop him at the deadline unless he blows up this year – in which case he’s going to most definately put that 11.4 cap hold on us next summer for awhile while he shops. but if he signs the deal, we can afford to give him the whole season.
That said, I think 90% that he is with us starting 09-10 is way high, and is more reflective of wishful thinking than the actual odds. He has the tools and potential to be a long-time option for us. Time to grow he no longer has due to his contract situation and it’s coinciding with our cap situation. If he doesn’t get resigned this summer he’s got about 35-40 games to earn his 09-10 roster spot. And a mild improvement from this past year won’t do it. He needs a breakout similar to what Travis just had. Saying it’s 90% likely that happens is just not plausible.
My 90% is predicated on the expectation
that he signs by November. Otherwise it is below 20%.
As I look at college players that are coming I see none as accomplished as Brandon Rush and we traded him. As I look around the league there is none that I think we want (except for LBJ – not the dead president) within our salary scale and age needs. Tayshaun Prince is a very good player but not the athlete that Martell is and Joe Dumars has him among those who are up for auction. Aging veterans such as Robert Horry and James Posey can come in and give a contender a boost at the 3, but not as starters. The key ingredient is defense. Paul Pierce played some defense this year. Not so much LA or Hornets starting 3s. So Boston wins. I believe our biggest need is to find a great perimeter defender who can guard either the 2 or the 3 with quickness and length and strength together with desire to play defense. Those are mighty rare. Maybe the best young one after Martell is Julian Wright and he is third on their depth chart and much less productive while being the same age (5 months younger) than Martell. Do you have anyone else in mind?
Aldridge said. "We feel like we can beat any team. We feel like we can beat the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, whoever any night right now, and we'll still be here when those teams get old and their guys retire. We're going to be here for a long time."
Yeah the only people who question Oden
are people who are afraid that he is the second coming. People in the know who are not on our team, I would imagine that they are scared honestly.
The thing is that the NBA is the only sport where the draft plays THAT much of an importance in how well your team can play as if you can get a player that is better than your starter, you have automatically upgraded 20% of your starting roster, and that is why teams that get the #1 pick can improve so much.
I also agree about your G rotation as there are only 96 mins to go around, 61-66 if you include Roy’s 30-35 guarenteed mins leaving Bayless and Rudy with ~30 a piece when they are fully acclimated to the NBA. Unfortunately that means that for Blake, Sergio and PetKo their mins will be limited or elimated in future seasons, I would imagine that one, will be kept as the backup, possibly Blake but if we can move him for another piece, he may go and we take a chance on Sergio or PetKo being able to hold the fort if one of RRB are injured. If we can move Blake for a future 1st from like Bos or SAS, make it top 25 protected for the first 3 years and then unprotected the 4th, right when they are set to fall back into the lotto we could garner a lotto pick in 3 years to replenish our stock.
A 3 G rotation of Bayless, Rudy, and Roy would be devastating as all are good scorers, good passers and smart with the ball. You could not play off either of them, nor could you play them tight. You cant double Oden or LMA as they should all be able to hit 40% or so from 3. The possibilities are endless.
We are now stuck with the problem(?) of having too much talent and possibly having to give up some of that talent. What I predict will happen is that PetKo and Batum will get a condo in Boise and will continue their hoops summit game from 07 wearing Stampede jerseys, allowing them to develop and not rot on the bench. We go through the season and see how we are developing and then if needed make a move for a vet at the trade deadline possibly using RLEC and possibly Webster, Blake or Sergio to grab a player from a crappy team who wants to cut salary and is not in the playoff hunt, say if Hou sucks it up move to get Battier or a move like it.
If not let RLEC go away for the summer of 2009 look for some vet FAs and/or trade some pieces away for a heavily protected future first like the Blake deal above.
Where we improve.
1. Aldridge average 17+ point and 7.6 rebounds in his second year, and in his first year of actually starting. The complaint that he didn’t get “enough” rebounds ignores his age and experience. He can and will improve because he’s got the mentality. He’s very close to being a 20/10 player and will almost certainly get there as he is working out, adding muscle and some weight, and learning the inside game he has to play. Predicting this for an NBA sophmore isn’t much of a stretch. We’ll be better at PF – particularly given we have Diogu if we need a hard headed banger.
2. Pryze only played 24 minutes a game. For the other 24 minutes we got basically 5 rebounds and 7 points (Frye). If Oden plays 24 minutes, and Pryz plays the other 24, its not much of a stretch to think our man-child will improve those number for his 24 minutes. 12-15 points and 8-9 rebounds for this time is not at all a stretch – but its a big improvement. Then toss in blocked and altered shots.
3. Blake and Roy are back and their production will be stable. Jack played 27 minutes a game and produced 10 points and 3.8 assists. We’ve added Fernandez and Bayless. I’m willing to bet that in 27 minutes of playing time, that Fernandez and Bayless will score more than 10 points, and generate more than 3.8 assists.
4. At SF we’ve lost Jones who missed 24 games but gave us 8 points and 3 rebounds in the 22 minutes he played in the 58 games he was healthy. Now, 8 pts in 22 minutes isn’t bad, but it’s hardly earth shattering. My bet is that Outlaw/Webster, each playing more minutes, will generate more points and rebounds in those 22 minutes than Jones did. Outlaw gave us 13.3 points and 4.6 rebounds in 27 minutes last year per game, and Webster gave us 4 rebounds and 11 points in 28 minutes. If they “don’t” improve, then the production at SF will still be slightly better. If they do improve, we’ll pick up another 4 or 5 points and several rebounds a night.
All told, I don’t know about wins, but I expect that at center we’ll pick up 6- 8 more points and 3-5 more rebounds, at guard we’ll pick up 5-6 points, at PF we’ll add at least 2-3 more rebounds and 3-5 more points, and at SF we’ll be the same – or better.
Now, none of this is much of a stretch. All told, we could easily add another 14 – 20 points a game and 5-8 rebounds. And that wins a lot of games.
After all, our center production when Pryz was out wasn’t very good, Jack’s numbers were barely average for the NBA , and Jones had the three down – but his over-all numbers were only about average. And frankly, Oden, Bayless and Fernandez are just “average”.
OOPs
Meant to say “Oden, Bayless and Fernandez are NOT just average players.
Blake n' bake
Thanks for the post. I completely agree with you that the first 30 games are gonna be the make or break period for some roster movement … especially for Martell/Frye/Diogu. However, I do think that we’re over-estimating th likelihood of Blake sticking around. Knicks fans are all up on him as a replacement/stop-gap solution if Marbury and/or Lee are dealt in some fashion. Check it: http://www.theknicksblog.com/
We’re LOADED at the PG with mediocrity. While I like Blake as a person and a complimentary piece of the team, let’s not mistake that, so long as he continues to meekly defer to his teammates and drive the lane w/out scoring or dishing for a basket he is a reserve at best. Almost all of his assists are on the perimeter. Rodriguez will never develop until he gets some minutes. Kopponen is HUNGRY and is gonna fight for a roster spot this year. Add that with an account from J.Bayless on his Morning Sports Page interview, saying that Coach McMillan supposedly is ”... looking to play an up-tempo game this year,” and Blake begins to look like the odd man out with some value on the free market.
Couple the above with the fact that we’ll likely shop for a proven younger PG the likes of D.Williams, D.Harris for ‘09-10 and what do we have to lose by shopping Blake?
This is the Hot Chicks Room. The breakfast table is just over this way...
Blake
As I’ve opined a lot in various threads over the past few days, Blake is going to at best our 4th guard in the medium to long term. He’s a guy you would love to have as your 10th or 11th man if need be. Not sure if that’s enough for him to want to stick around, but it might be. He likes it here by all accounts.
Still, for NOW, he is the ONLY guy on our 15 man roster who has any amount of experience playing pure point in the NBA. there is absolutely no way we are going to trade that away this summer unless we get a similar guy with PG experience back. Now, by mid-season, that could change. Bayless could prove he’s ready to play big minutes with Roy and Rudy and have better pure PG skills than he seems to at present. Roy and/or Rudy could prove they can handle big runs at the PG spot. Serg and/or PKo could prove they can play adequately enough should the need arise. But non of that has happened yet, and until it does, we have to have a contingency plan at the most important position on the floor to start the season. Blake is that contigency plan.
What we have to lose by shopping him is potentially starting the season with 3 rookies who aren’t ready to play the point for big minutes (Bayless, PKo, Rudy), a 3rd year guy who still isn’t (Sergio), and an all star who gets worn down trying to be our do-everything guy while at the same time trying to take on full-time PG duties, because no one else can. That’s a lot to lose. That’s not a risk that KP and Nate are going to take.
Blake may not be here a year from now, but he’s 100% guaranteed to be on our opening day roster, barring us bringing in another veteran PG to replace him.
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