Rudy Prediction

by usmcr3049 on Jun 26, 2008 12:12 PM PDT

With help from John Hollinger I have cruched the numbers (hopefully correctly) and came to a conclusion on Rudy's projected Stats are for next season, (not his 3rd season, but his rookie year). I used the info provided by the following websites:

2007-2008 ACB stats

http://www.acb.com/stsacumjug.php?cod_jugador=B0X

2006-2007 Euroleage stats

http://www.euroleague.net/competition/players/showplayer?pcode=BMT&seasoncode=e2006

John Hollinger's article on projecting euro players production in their first year in the NBA.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3460365&name=hollinger_john

Here is a clip from John's article:

"The reason this works is that there's a predictable relationship between a player's stats in the Euroleague -- the highest level of European basketball -- and what they'll be in the NBA. Crossing the Atlantic does the following to a player's results:

• Scoring rate decreases 25 percent
• Rebound rate increases by 18 percent (there are more missed shots in NBA play)
• Assist rate increases by 31 percent (Euro scorers are tightwads with assists)
• Shooting percentage drops by 12 percent
• Overall, PER drops by 30 percent."

I used those number to calculate Rudy's projected stats based on both his 2007-2008 ACB stats, (which Hollinger says don't translate quite as well) and his 2006-2007 Euro league stats. Between the two we should be able to get an idea of where Mr. Hollingers system says Rudy's production should be next year. So here we go!

Using 2006-2007 Euro League stats.

PTS: 11.9, REB 4.5, AST 2.2, 2pt% 43%, 3pt% 31%.

Using 2007-2008 ACB league stats

PTS: 14.7, REB: 2.8, AST: 4.9, 2pt%: 47%, 3pt%: 29%

I think we can all agree, (at least those who watched Rudy in both years) that his game was decidedly better in 2007 than 2006, and these numbers seem to agree with that statement, however what about hollinger's statement,

"As far as the other prominent Europeans go, the forecast isn't nearly as positive. For starters, Ante Tomic and Alexis Ajinca didn't compete in Euroleague, so I can't tell you about them. Same goes for Marc Gasol and Rudy Fernandez, incidentally, although both put up strong 2007 numbers."

We all know the Euroleague is the top league, with the ACB argueably right behind it in skill level. So maybe Rudy's 2007-2008 numbers are a bit more inflated by playing against lesser competition, lets say that his real stats end up somewhere inbetween these two sets of projections. If that is the case, I believe we could have a strong case for Rudy as ROY, as well as a starting role on this Blazers next season, (maybe not at the start but at some point during the season Nate would have to adjust to it).

So do you guys think these are realistic numbers? Did I fail at math and complete misuse Mr. Hollinger's numbers?

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Comments

Well, I won't be double checking

but I did think the same thing when I read Hollinger’s article, I was just too lazy to crunch the numbers myself. Nice work!

If Rudy’s rookie contribution is closer to your ACB calculations, I’ll be a happy camper.

by shralpster on Jun 26, 2008 12:17 PM PDT reply actions

Fairly fair predictions

I’m excited to see how Rudy fares.

"Beards--they grow on you"

by prezofdeath on Jun 26, 2008 12:17 PM PDT reply actions

some good, some bad

(using the 07/08 projections)

I don’t see him averaging 14.7 next year. more like 10-12 I think. rebounds are about rights. Assists are too high. 2p% is too high, 3p% is too low.

I’m thinking 11 pts, 3 rebs, 3 asts, 44%, 37%

by douglast on Jun 26, 2008 12:17 PM PDT reply actions

Guaranteed some 25 point games once and a while.

President of the Petteri Koponen fan club.

by Sabonis4Ever on Jun 26, 2008 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions

Since he's a rook

And a great shooter, I’ll expect some 20+ games in 20 minutes, followed up by a game where he just doesn’t look the same and is kinda struggling to get it going.

But the 20+ games show that he’ll eventually be more regularly, and it’ll be fun, fun I say!

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Jun 26, 2008 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't know

he can score his points pretty quickly.

I think his totals will be dependent on the roll he takes on with the blazers. Bench spark or starting. I see bench, but with all the conversation, I have no idea what’s going on in blazer land.

Ford: Bill, you're claiming victory already? Have you had a "Mission Accomplished" banner printed yet?

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/columns/story?page=DraftDebate-080624

by ratbastird on Jun 26, 2008 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions

How about this...

I’ll tell you in about a year’s time what his rookie statistics will be.

Kidding. Sounds reasonable. I think he might have a decided advantage in that he’s got a somewhat developed game that few teams will have been able to scout in depth… he might have a surprise factor in his rookie year.

We don't NEED the draft. -Mortimer 6/18

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Jun 26, 2008 12:26 PM PDT reply actions

Numbers Check

For FG% I have Rudy shooting 47.6% in ABC last year (adding up threes and twos in both 2007-2008 seasons). Hollinger says that FG drops by 12%, which means Rudy is projected to shoot 35..6%, wihch seems a little low.

For scoring, Hollinger is calculating the scoring rate, which I think means pts per minute, not points per game, but I’m not 100% sure.

by PoliSam on Jun 26, 2008 1:15 PM PDT reply actions

The 12%...

Numbers is a huge weakness of mine, but doesn’t he mean 12% of 47.6, not deducting 12 points from 47.6?

So it’s… lessee… carry the 5… like 41%, right?

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Jun 26, 2008 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions

That makes more sense

Hollinger says “FG% drops by 12%” which in ordinary language could be taken either way. But 42% sounds a lot more reasonable. Still a little low. Good catch.

by PoliSam on Jun 26, 2008 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Its definately 42%, not 35.6%

That does looks a little low, but you have to remember that the percentage of 3s is pretty high, so the overall scoring efficiency isn’t bad.

by trk on Jun 26, 2008 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions

according to the link I posted.

It is the offical ACB website and it shows Rudy’s 2pt fg% at 59% for the year, and 3pt % at 41%. Those are the numbers I used, and I just subtracted 12% off them. I believe that is what Hollinger meant, because in his example of Danilo Gallinari, he stated that his shooting percentage would transfer over to about 37%. Looking up Gallinari’s Euroleague stats, http://www.euroleague.net/competition/players/showplayer?pcode=KRD shows he shoot 48%, (on 2pts) last season.

by usmcr3049 on Jun 26, 2008 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions

In the NBA

Ahh, we are circling closer. Most places do not report 2P FG%. FG percentage is all shots put together. My number is threes and twos combined. Since Hollinger referred to Gallinari’s overall FG% I thought this made more sense.

Checking Hollinger, he does report Gallinari’s overall FG% 3s and 2s combined *.88. So, in reporting the 2 and the 3s seprately, the numbers Hollinger projects would be 51% on twos and 36% on threes. 44% overall.

Rudy shot a ton of threes!

by PoliSam on Jun 26, 2008 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions

urgh

Edit. Last sentence should be 42% overall, as I said above.

by PoliSam on Jun 26, 2008 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Assuming no trades

occur which would change our 2nd unit, Rudy will need to share scoring responsibilities with Trout, an improved Frye, and whoever he is playing alongside (Roy, Blake, or Jack) This will probably lower everybodys individual stats, but raise the total scoring.

by crakarjack on Jun 26, 2008 1:32 PM PDT reply actions