Random Thoughts

As we know, Pritchard likes to talk about "his guys."  He says the team does its homework, makes its decisions, and based on that they have one, maybe two players up at the top of the board the team considers "our guys".  In 2006, they were Aldridge and Roy.  In 2007, our guy was Greg Oden.  They were thrilled when his best friend was available to the team as a second round pick, but McBob wasn't "our guy."

As we come up on Thursday, I've been musing whether the Blazers have identified one or more of the players in this draft as "our guy(s)."  I'm going to assume for the moment that past performance is predictive of future performance.  In the past two years, Pritchard has drafted only among the players the team has brought in to work out - no player that has not worked out for the team has been drafted (and kept).  But, to quote Freeman, "...over the past 22 days, the Blazers have held 13 private workouts and evaluated 52 prospects."  Again, just speculation here, but if the Blazers draft anyone to keep, chances are it'll be one of those players.

So that eliminates deals that involve people like Bayless, Gordon, Mayo, Beasley, Love and the like.  Those players didn't work out here.  Pritchard is not going to draft them, and he's not going to trade for them from a team who drafts them for us.

We know the team has serious long-term concerns at the point guard spot. There has been a lot of talk about the team "not getting any younger."  Well, I don't think the organization expects to win an NBA title next year, either.  So if a point guard is taken, and they get significant minutes next year, they'll be coming up to speed with the rest of the team's time line.  To my mind, this is consistent with Roy getting more minutes at point guard too, as the Quick chat today attributes McMillan as saying was likely.

There has also been a lot of talk about the team needing "veteran experience."  Players with a proven track record of playing and winning on playoff and championship teams, and of taking mentoring roles on those teams, are few and far between.  Among point guards, Billups fits the description, but he's BYC and would make for a tricky deal.  Still, it's possible.  I like Andre Miller at PG too.  Philly might be willing to let him get away for some players more appropriate to their curve.

Assuming the ESPN rumor is true, the Blazers have five draft picks now, a mid-first rounder, a late first rounder, and three in the second round.  You don't need to be a genius to know they can't draft and keep five players on the roster.  If they want to draft a point guard, I think the guy has got to be Augustine or Westbrook, and those players aren't on the board at #13.  So if they want a point guard, they're going to have to move up.  Packaging the #13 and #27 along with a player (probably one of the ones with the salary cap hold issues) for a higher pick, say between six and ten, seems like a definite possibility.  I get the feeling "our guy" in the draft this year is not a point guard, though.

People have been saying that the Blazers have a problem at small forward.  To the extent this is true, I think the primary problem is getting defensive intensity and consistent offense from the position.  Experience will help there.  If McMillan is talking about giving Outlaw minutes only at the SF position next season (also mentioned in today's Quick chat), it must be because there are going to be minutes available there, and few minutes to go around at PF.  That implies that Webster is on the way out, and Frye is going to be kept.  So I'm going to venture that the player dealt with the picks to move up, if that happens, is Webster.  But drafting another young player for the PF slot just strikes me as unlikely, too.

Among veterans, Richard Jefferson has been to the finals, isn't a relic, and is available for the right price.  He also fits nicely into the possible hole trading Webster would create, allowing Outlaw to continue to come off the bench (which he prefers).  And New Jersey is rebuilding.  He would potentially fit the culture here.  On the other hand, he's had some injury issues, and would need to fall in line behind Roy's team leadership - possibly a tough pill to swallow for an All-Star and seven year vet.

Then there's still the overseas picks from previous drafts to think about, Koponen and Freeland.  Will they be part of any deals?  You've got to expect at least a couple of the second round picks to be.  In my many random thoughts, I have one thing that I'm fairly sure of - when the draft is over, the average age of Blazer players on the roster will be older, not younger.