It's only a few days before the NBA draft, but the analysts at ESPN are still cranking out various player ratings and mock drafts.  John Hollinger has unveiled a regression analysis that attempts to predict 3rd year PER of the current draft prospects based on their college stats.

The page for perimeter players (wings and point guards) can be found here: Perimeter Players

And the page for the post guys can be found here:  Big Men

I'm pretty sure it's a free insider preview, so everyone should be able to read it.

The page for perimeter players should be of  the greatest interest to the folks around here.  However, Hollinger's statistical predictions are not a welcome sight for those who are in favor of drafting Mayo, Westbrook, and Gordon, among others. 

Of course, there are plenty of reasons to discount or doubt the relevance of Hollinger's system, including his prediction of Roy's and Aldridge's PERs, but there are also plenty of reasons to agree with what this analysis is telling us.

So, I return to the title of this post....Is this the kind of red flag that should be heeded? I've been a fan of drafting Westbrook for a while now and this gave me some reservations.

Thoughts?