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2008-2009 Rookie of the Year

who's it gonna be? remember, Greg Oden and Rudy Fernandez will BOTH be considered rookies next year in accordance with the NBA rulebook.

Here's my prediction:

1. Michael Beasley> If he goes to Miami, they'll need to make some trades (moving Haslem) for Beaz to get some playing time, but he will be a

17 ppg 8 rpg 2 apg

2. Greg Oden> Won't get as much attention in Portland with BRoy and LA just lighting it up, but will get better numbers than Horford did last year. Oden would win the ROY if he was more of the go-to-guy on the team, but as the 3rd option at best, Beasley slips ahead and takes the trophy home

15 ppg 10 rpg 2.5 bpg

3. Eric Gordon> If he goes to LAC, he'll start right away.

18 ppg 3 apg 3 rpg

4. Kevin Love> if he goes to Memphis, he'll have a fine season

14 ppg 8 rpg 3 apg

5. Rudy Fernandez> comes off the bench for the first half of the year, slips into the starting lineup besides Roy to form a great backcourt

13 ppg 4 rpg 4 apg

Comment 41 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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Eric Gordon and Kevin Love

Over Rose?

President of the Petteri Koponen fan club.

by Sabonis4Ever on Jun 20, 2008 6:54 PM PDT reply actions  

Will be an interesting one

For better or worse, rookie of the year awards often go to the best stats. Even if Rose is the better rookie, he doubt he’s going to have gaudy stats, especially scoring, especially with a decent number of offensive options in Chicago.

by PoliSam on Jun 20, 2008 9:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Eric Gordon and Kevin Love?

Kevin Love? You heard it here first. He will be THE bust of the first round. Book it. (If this turns out to not be true, then forget I said anything)

President of the Petteri Koponen fan club.

by Sabonis4Ever on Jun 20, 2008 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

If I said the same thing as you.

I apologize. I did it unknowingly.

President of the Petteri Koponen fan club.

by Sabonis4Ever on Jun 21, 2008 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

Perhaps...

Rose is amazing.. i must admit. But I’m leaving him out because I doubt he’s gonna get the minutes and touches that he deserves at Chicago. Even if he starts (which in itself is not certain yet) he’d still split time with Kirk (unless he gets traded). but if Kirk gets traded , Rose jumps to #3 after averaging 14 ppg, 5 apg, and 4 rpg

by futurenba23 on Jun 20, 2008 7:00 PM PDT reply actions  

Sorry, I must disagree

Greg Oden is going to redefine the center position. He is so smart, strong, agile, fast and talented that people won’t believe their eyes or any other organs. By the end of next season, he will clearly be the best center in the league. After a period of adjustment, say 41 games, I’d expect his numbers to average around 20/15/5/5.

With apologies to G. Tirebiter, I’m always right and I never lie.

"Shoot, I don't even have anything to put in my own sig"

These are the modest words of pualo, posted on June 20, 2008.
Yes, pualo, an extraordinarily discerning BEdger with a knack for subtle expression.

by CatMan2 on Jun 20, 2008 7:17 PM PDT reply actions  

no wayyy not his rookie season

Oden...Aldridge...Roy.....THE REAL BIG THREE
Watch my brandon roy vid http://youtube.com/watch?v=RC3Byp4ID1E

by CroRupt on Jun 20, 2008 7:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Way!

"Shoot, I don't even have anything to put in my own sig"

These are the modest words of pualo, posted on June 20, 2008.
Yes, pualo, an extraordinarily discerning BEdger with a knack for subtle expression.

by CatMan2 on Jun 20, 2008 7:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hahaha!!

does that stat line include fouls? and I think the blocks are a little heavy. also with odin being able to break through double teams with pre-miami-shaq-ease, I dont see quite that many assists. i think he will have several games matching your stats, but am ashamed that my enthusiam doesn’t match yours:*( But just so you know, i have copy and pasted your statement, date and time, and emailed it to myself, and if you are even close to right halfway through the season, It will be my new sig, FOREVER

"In KP we trust" every Blazer fan ever

by ptwnblzr on Jun 20, 2008 11:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

dose of reality needed, CatMan

Oden’s numbers will be more like 10/10/2/2. I could see his 2nd half splits being ~14/11 but 20/15 is just not going to happen next year. He may reach that level eventually, but its certainly no guarantee.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Jun 20, 2008 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

Excuse me

Maybe you missed the part about “I’m always right and I never lie”?

But seriously, I cannot contain my optimism about the young feller. Did I mention he’s really tall? And good lookin’? Can I say that?

Just wait.

"Shoot, I don't even have anything to put in my own sig"

These are the modest words of pualo, posted on June 20, 2008.
Yes, pualo, an extraordinarily discerning BEdger with a knack for subtle expression.

by CatMan2 on Jun 20, 2008 8:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

I agree with you

He’s not like others, he wants it. Moreover, it’s expected of him to be great. He knows he can do it. He’s HUGE and FAST. The garbage he’ll be stuffing back on a regular basis is going to give us 6 to 16 points a game. The dude can just get to so much and put it down so easily. He’ll be that good. Not sure about the 5/5 part, but 20/15 is not a wild fantasy, even if it’s somewhat fantastic.

I love you catman2

I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich

by hobobob on Jun 21, 2008 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Roy 08-09

Oden blows every one away with 3.2 blocked shots,13.5 rebounds, 19.5points 56%shooting,80% from the line! This is what the Blazer brass is thinking. KP’s eyes show it,Nate’s body language says it MB stops just short of sayingf it and Rice says it.

Character +Culture = Chemistry

by Old School on Jun 20, 2008 7:57 PM PDT reply actions  

Oden's biggest obstacle...

...may be the voters. Even though he is “officially” eligible, I think it likely that some portion of voters will think of him as an rookie* (asterisk being the key), and thus will not vote for him at all, or will lower him a spot or two on their ROY ballot. Call it the Sabonis effect.

by douglast on Jun 20, 2008 8:16 PM PDT reply actions  

I agree with Beasley

Rose won’t be in ROY discussions simply because PG is the most difficult position to excel in for rookies. Rose will probably break out in year 2 or 3.

I drool at the projected stat line for Oden (20/15/5/5???), but he’ll struggle to break double digit ppg.

That leaves Beasley, who will make something like 20/9. That Miami team is screaming for someone to fill their frontcourt offensive void.

by LMA on Jun 20, 2008 8:21 PM PDT reply actions  

What makes some people think

that Oden won’t score 10 PPG off dunks alone? The man can dunk from like, 12 feet out, with his pivot foot on the ground.

Hubie Brown is my Idol.

by BigCelPhone on Jun 20, 2008 8:37 PM PDT reply actions  

Exactly

I think people are afraid to love again. They got so hurt last time

I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich

by hobobob on Jun 21, 2008 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

He could be rewarded though

for playing good, and on a good team. especially if we make it into the top half of the western confrence, or somthing like that. Just like the mvp, and allstar selection. that is why roy beat out t-mac, they hadnt gone on their winning streak yet.

by raging WebTed on Jun 20, 2008 8:40 PM PDT reply actions  

Maybe someone should ask Chuck Swirsky who the ROY will be

Dial 1-800-UPC-HUCK

"I don't trust lawyers." --David Stern

by MiledAnimal on Jun 20, 2008 9:29 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

When you hear anyone in the know talk about Oden...

Its always above and beyond what you expect to hear. They talk about him like he is going to walk right in and dominate easily, and most of the time these guys are biting their tongue a little. I think 13+/10+/2-3blks 50%+fg is reasonable to expect, provided he is healthy and can stay out of foul trouble. That coupled with him being a major player on a playoff team should be enough unless a Beasley/Rose/Mayo really breaks out and surprises some people…

RUDY > MJ

by myemic23 on Jun 20, 2008 10:15 PM PDT reply actions  

I agree. Most surprising was when I heard Mo Lucas quoted as saying

“Hall of Famer” when asked about Oden.

Channing Frye yesterday said right now Oden is the strongest player in the league.

by tweener on Jun 20, 2008 10:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

link?

"In KP we trust" every Blazer fan ever

by ptwnblzr on Jun 20, 2008 11:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

Dunno a link

But Frye has said it on various radio shows and stuff.

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Jun 21, 2008 4:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

For your listening pleasure(at least on the frye quote)

http://mikebarrettsblog.blogspot.com/2008/06/koponen-on-courtside.html

scroll down and listen to the Channing Frye interview and listen to him gush out the ears….

RUDY > MJ

by myemic23 on Jun 21, 2008 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

Can we make sure to keep Frye, he's awesome

I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich

by hobobob on Jun 21, 2008 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

link?

"In KP we trust" every Blazer fan ever

by ptwnblzr on Jun 20, 2008 11:42 PM PDT reply actions  

Greg Oden = The Big Apocalypse

Because for everyone else ‘sides the Blazers, it’s the end of the world as they know it

Greg Oden is going to be big. Maybe not put up the numbers instantly, but come on. If Shaq can dominate from 92 until 2005 ish, then Oden can dominate from 2008 until 2020. Yah. Run and hide, everyone else. Run and hide.

"Beards--they grow on you"

by prezofdeath on Jun 21, 2008 12:14 AM PDT reply actions  

Greg Oden will always get noticed

LMA and Roy are great, but Greg Oden is Greg Oden. He will get a lot of attention, and if he simply averaged a double double and our record improves greatly I’d expect him to win Rookie of the Year, even if Beasley scores 20 points a game.

Oden’s personality, his highlight reel dunks and blocks, all the voters will love him.

I love listening to KP and Nate or ANYONE associated with the Blazers and watching Oden practice every day, because you can tell (like Myemic says above) they are biting their tongue trying not to say so much. They WANT to just explode and gush and say how amazing he looks, and what they DO say is still above and beyond what they say when talking about a rookie.

Usually it’s “you know, he’s working hard, and he has a chance to be a special player”. Everyone just builds Oden up and up, then someone like KP will say “but, you know, we don’t want to put too much pressure on him, for the first 41 games”. They KNOW how awesome he looks, and you can hear it in how excited they are.

His offensive game was never that bad at all, and he has a soft touch. In the beginning, his sheer strength and athleticism will get him great position and enable him to use his soft touch or crunk dunking ability. Who can match up with him? He looks bigger and stronger than Dwight Howard. Shaq won’t be able to keep up with him.

I think, just because we have so many offensive options and Oden is still relatively raw (but only raw when compared to his eventual output, not Pryzbilla raw), he’ll score in the mid-teens but be capable of more on a bad team. LMA, Roy, Rudy, Martell, Outlaw, we got a lot of scoring. Oden will get a few touches and clean up a lot of garbage his rookie year, and he’ll be a great offensive rebounder. Think Z-Bo before he was a ‘star’, but insanely athletic and can jump over a squished grape.

If Oden was just “high potential PF” like Horford was, then I wouldn’t think he’d have much of a shot at winning rookie of the year. But, he is ‘hyped-since-he-was-13-#1-pick-center-of-the-decade-Greg Oden’, not just anybody. The Rookie of the Year award is his to lose.

Our record will help him, even if he only scores 10 points a game. His rebounding and blocks and effect on the team and FAME will get votes over crazy Beastly or plain Jane Rose.

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Jun 21, 2008 4:05 AM PDT reply actions  

I knew it

I knew Zach couldn’t clear a squished grape. My grandpa and I fight about this all the time. Could you email him?

I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich

by hobobob on Jun 21, 2008 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well said,

going back to the original post, it would be Very unlikely that rudy would score 13 ppg.
It would more likely be somewhere between 7 and 10, (10 if he is all that and a bag of chips.)

by raging WebTed on Jun 21, 2008 10:32 AM PDT reply actions  

Not that unlikely

Brandon Roy averaged 17 PPG as a rookie. Rudy Fernandez is a more prolific (and more efficient) scorer in the ACB league than Roy was in college, and I think that the ACB league has a higher level of competition than the NCAA. Its true that the Blazers are a stronger team than they were 2 years ago (less time/shots available for rookies), but I still think 13ppg is a realistic, or even a somewhat conservative, prediction for Rudy’s rookie year.

by trk on Jun 21, 2008 8:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

Manu scored like 7, 8 points a game his rookie year

And he was 27 years old and had a bigger frame than Rudy. He played a decent amount of minutes as well, comparable to what Rudy will likely play.

The transition to the NBA is just a tough transition, even coming from a great league like the ACB league. They caliber of play and BBIQ is better than the NCAA, but the level of athleticism is DEFINITELY not. That is what Rudy will likely struggle with: dealing with wing players, who are the most athletic players in the NBA, being quicker and longer than he is.

Rudy is a better shooter than Manu was/is, but I think they have somewhat similar games and even similar physical builds. Double digit scoring for such a skinny, young kid would be really amazing, I think.

In the long run, I think Rudy will be a great scorer. It’s a hell of an adjustment from Europe to the NBA though, and we should let him go through those growing pains without thinking there is something wrong with him.

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Jun 22, 2008 2:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

Prove it!

Come help me celebrate June 26th - Flush The Trades Away Day.

by tominhawaii on Jun 22, 2008 3:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

Manu was 25

But if you look at their stats, when Ginobili was in Europe he wasn’t anywhere near as dominant as Rudy has been. That’s why Ginobili almost went undrafted, he just wasn’t very impressive as a young player.

There are players from Europe who came over and had an immediate impact. When Pau Gasol entered the NBA at age 21, he averaged 17.6 points per game and won the ROY award. Scola and Navarro were also double digit scorers as rookies last year, and I think that Rudy is better than either of them.

by trk on Jun 22, 2008 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

It's not that I disagree with you

And I do think Rudy will be a good player, probably as good as Manu. I just don’t want people to be too disappointed if he doesn’t do great right away, and remind my fellow Blazers Edgers that even Manu didn’t light the NBA on fire.

I certainly hope Rudy does, and the homer in me believes it is very possible. I get how Rudy is a different player than the others, because of his age and skillset and mentality. He ain’t soft and loves to dunk. If we build him up too much though, and he DOES come in scoring 6 points a game, I don’t want my friends thinking sumthin’ is wrong, when it is just the transition period.

Know what I mean? I definitely ain’t trying to downplay Rudy’s longterm impact, or even his shortterm. I just think some have Oden-esque expectations, and that MIGHT not be fair and could hurt Rudy from a fan expectations perspective.

I personally think he could do 10+ to start off, if given 25 mins a night. I won’t think he’s a bust if he doesn’t, though.

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Jun 23, 2008 12:46 AM PDT up reply actions  

10 is not that awesome

I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich

by hobobob on Jun 21, 2008 4:01 PM PDT reply actions  

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