The Official Blazersedge Draft Prediction Thread

Don’t let Mortimer play this contest.
I predict KP will trade the pick and Jack. and JJ33 will opt out. This is too hard. I give up.

because I’ve been saying they should all along. He fits what we need, now as an athletic, instant-defense-off-the-bench rookie, and later when he becomes the ideal combo guard to play with Brandon and Rudy.

The Blazers will have to trade up to get him. It will cost us Travis and Jarrett and the #13 pick. The Blazers will make the trade with the Knicks for their #6 pick.

Ok here its:

KP trades Jarrett Jack and the #13 pick to the Clippers for their #7 pick.

With the #7 pick in the 2008 NBA Draft the Portland Trail Blazers select DJ Augustine from the University of Texas.

KP the trades his three second round pics to Orlando for their #22 pick.

With the #22 pick in the 2008 NBA Draft the Portland Trail Blazers select either Brandon Rush from the University of Kansas or Chris Douglas-Roberts from the Memphis University. For the purposes of this “contest” I’ll say they end up with Chris Douglas-Roberts because Rush will have already been taken.

If Westbrook is still available at #7 it will be interesting to see if the Blazers choose him over Augustine, but I’m going to stick with Augustine as my prediction.

Also, if KP is able to put together enough to trade up to Seattle’s #4 pick without giving away any of our core (which to me includes Travis Outlaw, but not Martell Webster) I say he takes Jerryd Bayless. To me this would be the ideal pick in this draft, but I don’t see it happening.

So my official prediction is:
#7 – DJ Augustine
#22 – Chris Douglas-Roberts

For What It’s Worth:
Players a couple of players I like at the bottom of the first round or near the top of the second round are JJ Hickson and Gary Forbes.

I can’t wait to see what happens…

Portland already has its future point guard. His name is Brandon Roy. He’s not the fastest and quickest guy, but neither was Magic Johnson. What the two share is preternatural court vision, an ability to create a play, good passing, decent defense, good size, leadership qualities that elevate the play of team mates, unflappability, decent free throw shooting, and, beneath engaging personalities, indomitable wills. Kareen was behind Magic defensively and now Oden will be behind Roy.

Thus, JJ plus #13 get traded to the Clips for #7 and the opportunity to draft Alexander. This is why: Martell is a tall SG playing out of position at 3. He starts at 2 with Roy at 1 so long as Webster can keep Fernandez coming off the bench.

Blake backups Roy. Outlaw starts at 3, with Jones, if he resigns, relieving. With Martell at 2, Alexander has some opportunities to develop and even see playing time at small forward. Alexander is the best player available and could be the Jerome Kersey-kind of energy guy the team could use off the bench.

KP doesn’t waste his second round picks. He either trades them all away or bundles them into one second round pick that snares a European who can develop for a year or two abroad.

The unthinkable. Trades Outlaw, #13, and Jack to a nebulous Pistons (here, I’ll say it.. #25) for three years of Billups. Jack’s basically a mini-Billups w/ turnovers, so Detroit doesn’t lose a whole lot here, considering what they gain.

Then (or, potentially, before), KP flips the script and works a three-team deal to trade RLEC and two future 1st rounders to the Bucks, plus Pryz to the burning rivers of Cleveland for the #8 pick and the #19 pick, respectively. Neither the Bucks nor the hurting Cavs can turn this deal down, so we get Billups + new PG of the week (Westbrook, Gordon, Augustin or Sessions – don’t forget about Sessions) and the Thrilla’s replacement, Hibbert.

Either that, or there’s something even crazier than that, and I can’t prognosticate past multiple-three-team-deals. But, actually, THAT’S the likelihood upon which I’m banking – KP does something even crazier than that.

Either way, if the Chauncey + #8/Sessions + #19 trade goes down, I want my T-Shirt!

Our hopes for a title hang on Oden and not in a great backup who can be a starter in many teams. Toronto needs desperatedly Priz´s kryptonite, and its desperation is our hope.

Jack goes to Toronto to back up TJ Ford.

The 13 pick will make it more attractive for Toronto

Jose Calderon might be upset with the Raptors, his friend Garbajosa is gone and he want to play in a winner team more than money.

Next year there won´t be good PG free agents, so it wouldn´t be a good idea to wait.

Calderon might refuse Toronto´s offer this year to become a free agent next year, so Toronto can´t do its will against Calderon wishes.

This is unnecessarily long, but if I am going to accurately predict draft night, might as well do it in style. If you get bored reading this at any point, the bullet points are available at the end of the Epic.

Minnesota is doesn’t like picking #3. The top players available are OJ Mayo and Jerryd Bayliss whom the organization views as too similar to Foye and McCants to warrant a top three pick.

Portland seeing that it can’t possibly spend the $25.5M of cap space that it will have next year, KP with Paul Allen’s skeptical acceptance offers a trade to Minnesota where Portland takes on the remain $60M owed to Marco Jaric and Antoine Walker in exchange for the #13 pick, #36 pick, Martell Webster, Jarrett Jack and Raef’s expiring contract.

Minnesota sees an opportunity to emulate Portland. They would have a glut of young talent (Jefferson, Foye, Webster, McCants, Brewer) and a lot of cap space to work with before their young stars need to sign long term deals.

Commissioner Stern announces the trade to which sends Stephen A. Smith into a rant about the high draft picks that Portland has had. "They had the first pick in last years draft; they traded up from four to the two pick in 2006. They also acquired Brandon Roy who was taken with the fifth pick. They had to get the third pick… it is the only top 5 position they HAVEN’T draft from in the last 3 years."

Commissioner Stern than announces that "With the third pick in the 2008 NBA draft, the Minnesota Timberwolves select: O.J. Mayo, SG USC. The camera immediately pans to Spike Lee who is hanging his head because he still thought that there was a chance Mayo would fall to the Lakers at #6."

Does the story end there… no, of course not. KP can’t execute only one trade on draft night. Amongst a gallery of booing Knicks fans, who wanted Mayo, Pritchard picks up the phone to call Donnie Walsh. "So… how would you like this O.J. Mayo kid."

KP offers O.J. Mayo and Antoine Walker for #6 pick, Malik Rose and Nate Robinson. Walsh has two goals: acquire young talent and get under the cap. He has by now realized that he can’t move both Randolph and Curry, so the team will not be under the cap within the next three years. Since that is the case, acquiring another albatross contract that expires at the same time will have little effect on the managing of the team. Seeing an opportunity to get a bona fide star in the making/Knick fan favorite, Walsh accepts. The Knicks draft the best pure shooting combo guard whom they view as the perfect compliment to Roy at #6: Eric Gordon.

Having moved Antoine Walker’s contract, Kevin Pritchard looks to Tom Penn who has already determined that even with adding Marco Jaric’s contract, the Blazers will still be $18M under the cap next off-season and have acquired the best player they targeted in the draft.

Looking at the roster, there is still an obvious log jam at PG. Additionally, the trading of Martell Webster has left the team with no defensive option at SF. When the #20 pick rolls around Denver is disgusted that there are no viable PG’s available since Ty Lawson withdrew from the draft.

Kevin Pritchard calls Denver offering them a PG solution in Steve Blake (whom you all remember was the perfect complement to AI and Carmello Anthony). Denver won’t trade #20 for Blake, so Portland adds #33 pick. Portland sends Blake and #33 to Denver for #20 and Steven Hunter. With the #20 pick, Portland selects, Brandon Rush, SF, Kansas. Tom Penn also reminds KP that since Blake’s MLE ran through next season… he also just freed up $4.5M in the Denver trade.

All Trades:
Portland trades Martell Webster, Jarrett Jack, Raef LaFrentz, #13, #36 to MIN for Antoine Walker, Marco Jaric and #3(OJ Mayo).

Portland trades the draft rights to OJ Mayo and Antoine Walker to NYK for #6(Eric Gordon), Nate Robinson and Malik Rose.

Portland sends Steve Blake and #33 to DEN for #20(Brandon Rush) and Steven Hunter.

Final Roster:
PG: Eric Gordon/Nate Robinson/Sergio
SG: Roy/Rudy Fernandez/Brandon Rush
SF: Travis Outlaw/James Jones/Brandon Rush
PF: Aldridge/Frye/Steven Hunter
C: Oden/Pryzbilla/Steven Hunter

Marco Jaric: Contract Bought Out
Malik Rose: Expiring Contract

Salary Cap Space for 2009: $22M

If you have read through this entire message, congratulations, I couldn’t put forth the effort to reread it for grammar errors, so more power to you.

PDX trades Jack and 13th for Marvin Williams

OR

PDX Trades Jack, 13th, and Webster (and filler) for Josh Childress and a bad contract.

As Midget stated above, simply draft Rush at #13, but also purchase (or trade second rounders for) a late first rounder, whom we plan on stashing in Europe.

I think the Trail Blazers are considering only a few people, including: Rose, Bayless, Westbrook, and Mario Chalmers. The first three should be gone by #13, and it may be too costly for us to move up and get ‘em. It would be nice to trade for another vet, but with JJ as our only purely expendable player this idea is difficult to pull off (i.e. matchng salaries).

According to ‘Hoopshype’ the Wizards have a mere nine players under contract for next season.

So, we’ll swap our #13 pick and one of the early second rounders for Wizard’s #18 pick and a 2010 lottery-protected first-rounder.

Chalmers will be chosen at #18. We’ll get some unknown European player at either #33 or #36. Then KP will take TominHawaii at #55 for “culture” reasons—a real bargain.

so the only prediction I’m going to make is that somewhere in the mix we will draft a Euro who is probably not on anyone else’s radar. I’m basing this on Joel Freeland, Sergio, Petteri, and a few other names that have not resurfaced after the draft (even Rudy was less well known last year.)

and takes the best player available at #13… If he does package the pick in a trade, it will only include JJ, Sergio or RLEC. He will NOT trade Trout or Martell this year, at least not right now. Any trade involving them would only happen at the trade deadline, no sooner. No way we trade for Richard Jefferson either. We need a vet at PG, not SF.

who says we grab Alexander at #13.

Additionally, we trade 33&36 picks for a late first-rounder, and take someone from overseas to stash away.

Portland trades #55 for a future second-round pick.

I say we draft De andre Jordan after trading w/ Golden

Before this morning’s talk about trading the pick, Martell, and a player TBD for Barbosa, I thought the Blazers would trade with the Timberwolves to get the No.3 pick and draft OJ Mayo.

They want a big-man to get Jefferson over to PF, and J.Pryzbilla is from Minnesota. Add-in the no. 13 pick, and Martell or maybe Outlaw and it could have made sense.

I would love OJ Mayo if he stayed commited to defense. Plus, I don’t think Joe Alexander is going to be around at 13, so we should trade it away.

Chicago has Heinrich so they allow KP to wrestle away Rose and the #1 spot. What does KP have to give up to get it? I’m going with #13, Travis and Rudy. Of course with the #1 pick KP selects Rose.

This isn’t my official prediction but we might have to give up #13, LMA and change to get at Rose.

Happy daze … we’ll now have the best point guard in the league for the next dozen years.

Ok, I’ve got another prediction that I really like, this just for fun. I’m officially sticking with my original prediction for contest purposes.

Portland trades Jarrett Jack, Travis Outlaw, Raef’s expiring contract, plus all three of our second round picks, and possibly cash and scraps (ie Joel Freeland) to the Charlotte Bobcats for Small Forward Gerald Wallace and their #9 pick.

With the #9 pick in 2008 NBA Draft the Portland Trailblazers select DJ Augustine.

To me this move would be even better than moving up to #3 or #4 to take Jerryd Bayless.

KP will get caught up in a “Mannix” reruns marathon and forget all about it being draft night. Paul Allen will call him to fire him but will forgive KP when he hears the reason.

Portland will forfeit all its picks.

Too many options for Pritchard. Too hard to predict. I know whatever I’m going to say will be wrong. I’ll say that the player picked at 13 in the draft (whether by the Blazers or not) does not end up on the Blazers roster by the start of the season. I know that will not win me a T-shirt, but that’s as specific as I can get and still have a better than a 50% chance of being right… For some reason, I still want the Blazers to get Eric Gordon, but I doubt it will happen.

As for the later half of the draft:

-The Blazers trade the 33 + cash for Serge Ibaka.

-They trade the 36th pick as part of the trade that involves the 13th pick.

-They trade the 53 pick for a future 2nd rounder.

It’s all a smokescreen. Calderon can still be had.

Blake (4.2) and Outlaw (4.0) for Calderon (8.2). This will happen a week after the draft. I believe that Calderon has demanded a trade to Portland.

We’ll all be scratching our heads because Portland moves up to get Alexander at #10 (Jack and #13 for to NJ’s Awvee Storey and #10.)

Then Pritchard moves the #33 and #36 + 3 mil. to Washington at #18 for Koufos.

What in the world is KP doing, we’re all asking. Alexander and Koufos? Getting younger? It’ll make sence when FA begins.

Oden/Pryzbilla/Koufos
Aldridge/Frye/LaFrentz
Webster/Jones/Alexander
Roy/ Fernandez/Foster
Calderon/Surge

I looked in my backyard again this morning, and still the 7’2” 280lb Center With Skills Tree has yet to produce the same bountiful harvest as last years Oden crop. So it looks like we will need to pick this plum from the draft.

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Blazers select Anthony Randolph with the #13 pick. Trade him to Washington along with Jarrett Jack and the #36 for the #18 pick and next years #1. Top 3 Protected.
Blazers select Nicholas Batum.
The Blazers then trade the #33 and the #55 picks to San Antonio for their #1 pick next year.

Blazers then trade Martell Webster and Sergio Rodriguez to the Charlotte Bobcats for Raymond Felton.

So with Pritchs crazy wheelings and dealings we draft Nicolas Batum at 18. Add Felton in a trade, and have 3 #1s next year in order to wheel and deal for a star player or to get to the top of the draft for that LAST player who will put us over the edge.. new team as such

Felton/Blake/Koponen?
Roy/Fernandez
Outlaw/Batum/JJ???
LMA/Frye/McBob
Oden/Pryz/Raef
and a FA signing to get us to 15. McBob and Petteri ride the pine or play Dleague ball

My flavors lean towards Alexander and DJ Augustine.

The question then becomes, how will KP get them and which will he choose?

DJ is listed at 5’11” but with a LARGE reach advantage. This separates him somewhat from other short PG’s. His height real disadvantage is that taller PG’s will see over him, however, if he’s as good as indicated he’ll make up for that with his skills.

I strongly suspect that Alexander has the toughness mentality that we need and our looking for. We need an enforcer, and this could be our guy. He’s also started late, he’s a hard worker, and I suspect that his talent level will shoot up. Additionally his attitude and desire to play with us is huge.

Alexanders down side will be his lack of polish. He’s been playing for five years and still has a high learning curve. that said, he has talent AND a great work ethic. Possibly you draft him and develop him for a starter position in a few years.

I lean towards Alexander because he can play 3/4 and KP likes flexibility with players. Alexander has also shown he can change up his game to adapt to team needs. Also, when it comes down to it, I REALLY don’t like short guards. 6’ is my ceiling and DJ is 5’10”.

So, we need to move up or move down. I don’t think we’ll move down. KP believes that you find the guy and go after him. If we’re moving down, I think we’ll be trading out.

Alexander is SF while DJ is PG and PG is our biggest need. Of course we also have the Finland kid who we’ve stashed over in Finland. He’s been working on his body to make it NBA ready, thanks to his coaches and his countries desire for him to make it and succeed in the NBA. So Finland will be a factor in this debate. How much has he developed?

So I see DJ and Alexander as our key guys with the Finland kid and the question “what will webster become?” being our key deciding factors on who we really want vs what we need to give up.

So, can we get those guys and how, or do we do a trade and include 13 with the trade?

I’m going to go with Alexander. My reasoning is that I’ve been preaching Finland for the past year and I need to stick with it. I believe in the kid and I think we’ll need to snag him this year if he’s been getting offers from euro teens. he’ll need playing time and I think we’ll have a Roy, Rudy, Blake rotation with the finland kid cleaning up.

On the block we have Jack, Webster or Outlaw, Frye, and sergio.

What makes the most sense to me is Jack, Webster, sergio and Frye as well as our 2nd round picks that we really won’t be using, but is Alexander worth giving up Webster? What else might we get out of the deal? Can we work in future 1st round picks, which teams will most benefit from these pieces (all or some) and is it worth making the move? Oh, and lastly, are there teams out there that would LOVE to do a deal with us?

Two other factors to take into it are Barbosa and Calderon. Calderon wants to play with a winner and does not like playing second string and TJ will most likely be tough to trade. Barbosa does NOT want to leave phoenix, and terry porter is said to like him, but does he fit there?

So, I need to do some research but wanted to drop these thoughts out there while I do it so I can come back and review next week.

I say at 13 the Blazers take… Robin Lopez (don’t worry, it gets better)

The Nets at 10 take a falling Eric Gordon, and the Blazers and Nets swap players plus Portlands 36th pick.

At 33 KP stays put and takes a falling Euro, LIke Omer Asik or Serge Ibaka.

55 will either be traded for future consideration or used on some one boring like Hairston or Darnell Jackson.

1) The Blazers will pick up DJ Augustin – Best pure point that the Blazers can get behind Rose

2) We will trade up to #10 with the nets. Give up Jack and #13

I’ve been aching to hatch my “What Would KP Do” master plan, and this is the perfect outlet for it!

There’s a few reasons why I don’t see us making a major move right now. First of all, Raef’s Expiring Contract will increase in value by the trade deadline (more teams tanking, playoff position is starting to become more clear, etc) and we’ll have a better idea of the actual value of our young talent (at least 40 more games of Webster & Outlaw) to help us decide which player we’ll want to (or have to) depart with.

Secondly, I believe that all bets are off if the Blazers are in playoff position at the trade deadline next season, because KP isn’t going to miss a chance to get all of his young guys some playoff experience nice and early in their careers.

Because of this, I think KP sticks with a majority of the current roster at least until July 1st.

That being said…

The Trail Blazers package the #13 pick and the #33 pick to Orlando for the #22 pick and a 2009 lottery-protected first rounder.

Orlando has been looking to grab a second round pick in this year’s draft (they have none) and with this trade their able to grab a second rounder and move up 9 spots at the cost of a #22 pick and, most likely, a #20-25 pick next year.

With the #22 pick in the NBA draft, the Trail Blazers select Courtney Lee of Western Kentucky University.

He’s a 22 year old Senior that is 6’5” and can play both guard and small forward. Flat out, he’s a shooter in the mold of James Jones that can spread the floor and play some defense. His biggest knock is that he isn’t much of a slasher, but with Roy, Rudy and our Twin Towers down low, we can afford to just let him roam around the perimeter.

With the #36 pick in the NBA Draft, the Portland Trail Blazers select Goran Drajic of Union Olimpija Ljubljana.

Goran is a 6’4” point guard who has shown he can play tough defense against strong competition. He’ll need a season or two to polish his skills overseas (most notably, perimeter shooting and decision making) but he could definitely turn into another big guard that helps the Blazers down the road.

The Portland Trail Blazers send pick #55 to the Cleveland Cavaliers in exchange for a 2009 second rounder and cash.

Cleveland is another team that could use a late second round pick (they have none) to store a long shot talent overseas or add to the bottom half of their depth chart. Because I’m a homer, I would say that Kyle Weaver or Bryce Taylor are both players who could help Lebron James. Otherwise, it’s a European player that will come over right when Lebron makes his leap to the Big Apple…

Nobody trades with us because they are afraid of the dreaded Pritch-Slap. Therefore, KP is forced to keep the pick, and goes for the “best player available” – a player that will make an immediate impact and therefore be a valuable potential trade component down the road. Given how picks #1-12 are likely to go, I would think it would be Brandon Rush or Mareese Speights. Both could probably hold their own on the court next year (on second unit, limited minutes). Then, KP makes his big move near the all star break, using RLEC and a couple of his tradeable assets to acquire a frontline PG or SF. from a team that is under-performing and looking to dump a star player (like Memphis did this year).

So, my prediction is Speights.

Who in their right mind would select Speights? I mean the guy is a class-A, Fraggle-Rocking homo.

I think we take Ty Lawson.

Sorry, I was doing my best idiot flamer (as in chat room flamer) impersonation. I had to ask woodduck who Speights even was. Trying a little too hard to be sarcastic….

Petteri Koponen does well in Vegas and is signed to rookie contract.
Sergio gives up and goes back to Europe.
KP drafts Brandon Rush at 13.
JJ2sees playing time disappear and opts out.
2ND round picks :
#33 Best young euro available.
#36, #55 and 3 mil for Houston’s #25 pick. KP drafts BPA preferably EURO to stash
KP keeps young old guard together.
C-Best combo in NBA GO (All Star,ROY), Pryz, Rlec.
PF- Best combo in NBA. LMA (all star), Frye (1/2 of salary to be picked up by Portland Chamber of Commerce).
SF-Marty (spot up shooter and defender),TO (sixth man of the year),Brandon Rush.
SG-BROY (All Star), Rudy (2nd in ROY voting).
PG—Blake (perfect for getting ball to three All Stars and a spot up 3 shooter).
JJ will be fighting Petteri for minutes
Petteri Koponen PG for the future (tall, pure point guard, can shoot, Nate will teach defense.

1. We package the 13th pick, along with Martell Webster, to the Clippers for the 7th overall pick and select DJ Augustin (or Westbrook if Augustin isn’t there)
2. We trade the 33rd pick to Cleveland for a 2009 2nd round pick and cash
3. With the 36th pick, we take SG Kyle Weaver of Washington State
4. With the 55th pick, we take C Peja Samaradziski of Macedonia

I think the Blazers trade #13, #33, Outlaw and Jack to Detroit for Prince and cash (to make the salaries work, I think. I’m no Tom Penn so I have no idea what it takes to make the salaries work). We use the other 2nd round picks in trades for future picks. So, we draft NO ONE. We sign Kopenen to replace Jack.

We don’t….

—Who you think the Blazers will pick and why.
Darrell Arthur, because that’s who Charlotte our trade partner will want.

—Where that pick will occur in the draft order.
#13

I should just stop there right, and I win?
OK – I supposed I should say how and why we are trading with Charlotte. But’s that the tougher part. The Bobcats are the only team in the second half of the lotto that has an established starter at PG, and will be looking for a backup. MIL has Williams, Session and NJN have Harris, Williams. We could trade Jack to CHA and not have to accept any players back, because they are under the cap. Because that’s the simplest scenario put me on the record for that one.

I’m hoping the the promise Westbrook has is to be drafted by Charlotte, because they will swap picks with Portland and get their backup PG and a PF to play alongside Okafor. That way, Charlotte can fills two holes instead of one by keeping the PG for themselves. If Westbrook is not available, the Blazers will take Augustin. It could get more complicated, here’s my stretch projection, which I believe works but would have to be completed in July:

08/9 Salaries
POR:
Outgoing: LaFrentz, Outlaw, Jack ($18.7M), #13, #33, #36
Incoming: Prince, Harrington (waived) ($12.1M), #9

DET:
Outgoing: R. Wallace, Prince ($27.6M), #29
Incoming: G. Wallace, Outlaw, LaFrentz ($32.4M), #33, #36

CHA:
Outgoing: G. Wallace, Harrington ($12.1M), #9
Incoming: R. Wallace, J. Jack ($14.5), #13, #29

I have Portland shooting for Los Angeles Clippers Pick #7 so KP can trade up to get DJ Augustin or Eric Gordon, which KP favors DJ Augustin. In order to do that, KP also has to trade into the first round with San Antonio, then package that pick (#26) with our pick #7 and Jarrett Jack… but we have to take back Brevin Knight, uugh. Anyway, here are the moves that I think is likely to happen for the Blazers in this draft:

Move 1: San Antonio trades Pick #26 (forward JJ Hickson) to Portland for Pick #33 (center Ante Tomic), Pick #36 (forward Ryan Anderson), and Pick #55 (guard George Hill).

Move 2: Portland trades Pick #13 (guard Brandon Rush), Pick #26 (forward JJ Hickson) and guard Jarrett Jack to the Los Angeles Clippers for Pick #7 (guard DJ Augustin) and guard Brevin Knight.

Mark it Dude.

We trade all four picks for two future first-rounders, ideally one each in the 2010 and 2011 drafts.

But as for a prediction what the Blazers WILL do . . . ? I don’t think that’s it. There’s been np talk on that front.
I mean, why are we even bothering to work out so many players destined for the top 9 or so?!?
The only caveat to that opinion is, Pritchard very frequently does something that nobody was talking about;
last year it was the Zach/Franchise deal, the year before, it was getting a top-2 pick WITHOUT trading up from #6.
So if Pritchard were to bank the picks, well, it would be just like him to do that without advance rumor.
Still, if it happens as a surprise, let it be a surprise to me, too: My preferred action will not be executed.

Here are some other things that I believe will not happen:
- We trade down (have our highest pick be lower than 13).
- We trade REC (maybe that gets moved near the trade deadline, there’s a very low chance of a trade
involving the REC this offseason but after the draft, and there’s a great chance
we just let it expire and pocket the cap space this time next year).
- We move up into the top two (those are just not available).

Well, that leaves three possible things:
1) We move up into the 3-10 range, trading at least one role player and picking somebody targeted,
rather than taking a certain draft position and waiting to see who’s gone and picking the BPA;
2) Holding and picking at 13;
3) Trading the pick and one or more role players fort a vet.

Of those, one of the two that smells unlikely to me is #2 (holding the pick), just because it means
Pritchard does nothing except scout the prospects and pick the best one available, no trading.
That’s just not like him.
The other one that doesn’t feel right is #3, if only because we can get such a better player in a trade
involving the REC; if we add an existing NBA player, we’ll do it with BIG money,
either as a trade-deadline deal with the REC or as a 2009 signing using the cap space the expiring REC gives us.

So that leaves a move up in the draft, which is what a lot of people are betting on, too;
the only details of debate are, who do we trade with (for what higher slot), what Blazer(s) are also in the package,
and who do we pick, in particular as THE player that Pritchard targets?
Since it’s a targeted player, we work backwards: Start with the target, predict who we deal with to pick him,
and then decide what Blazer rounds out the package (the demands of the team we trade with will shape this).

Answers: Westbrook or Augustin, which dictates roughly a 4-7 range pick no matter which of the two it is;
as dictated by that range, I’ll say the team is . . . Memphis.
But this is where it gets tricky, because they’re the one team that REALLY can’t use JJ.
The Blazer needed to round out THAT deal has to be a frontcourter, and one that fits around Marc Gasol
better than any big man they could get at #5 (which I think is Brook Lopez; I see Mayo/Love going 3/4,
without knowing which goes where) OR a big they could get by trading up themselves, especially with Miami.

In other words, they’re gonna want Trout, and settle for no less than Frye (and probably not even settle for THAT).

You know what? Trout’s not available, and Memphis would insist on him. Deal-breaker. It does not get done.

So that leaves the best chance with Seattle. THEY, luckily, CAN use JJ.
But JJ alone won’t be enough. And Trout’s not available.
In this whole sequence, Trout’s value TO US becomes obvious, and Martell looks suddenly disposable.
So it’s JJ, MarWeb, and the #13 pick to Seattle for the #4 pick . . . and there’s gotta be more, just for matching.
Seattle throws in . . . what? WHAT?!? I don’t know! (Can we get Green now? I wanted him last year . . . )

We throw in our #1 next year to get Green in the deal, and Seattle bites.
Next year’s first-rounder, this year’s #13,JJ and MarWeb to Seattle for Jeff Green and the #4 pick for Westbrook.

[phew!]

all of the above and only Ralphzillo (sorry if I missed anyone) has an important take on this draft: There are only a few players even worthy of being a starter for us in the future using the pace adjusted win shares analysis. For more on this see this article.

My take is that KP decides how much he loves Love. If he wants him he moves what he needs to get him (likely #5 with Memphis who would be thrilled to have Outlaw and might give up a point guard in return) If Love is not the answer to our needs A trade down to pick up 1 or 2 players in the bottom half ot the first round and/or a first round pick in the future might be the result.

I also predict that only Chalmers is a candidate for PG for Portland in this year’s draft.

Finally there are two players at the bottom half or the 2nd round from KU (and no, I don’t think they get preference from KP by being Jayhawks ) namely Kaun and Jackson. Both players are good role players who can score and play defense. neither player would ever be a culture problem. They work hard, and have good solid fundamentals and good skill levels. So I can see KP getting one of them to at least compete in training camp. If we do not get a big earlier we might just take one here.

I think KP will just in general have a more difficult time pulling off trades as gms will second guess there part in any dealings with the league and pundit recognized,Mr. Pritchard Esquire Slapp, for the simple fear of failure. I’m sure he will aproach the right gm(s) with the proper measure of humility to pull something off, and regardless of what he does, his efforts will be regarded with enthusiasm and awe. He’s erned it. This guy has nailed it with autistic accuracy, to such a degree, that nomatter what he does, he will be reviered, at least for a couple of years anyway.

If Kevin wants carmelo, then I want carmello, if Kevin wants Tj, then I want Tj, infact I would follow this guy anywhere.

Now has anyone seen that web site where the guy trades a red paporclip through a series of barters for an effin house? I think that guy is a distant relative of Mr. P’s, and maybee was the inspiration of a dream I just had. I was going to cleen my house and workout, but somehow manefested this strange and convienient headache, so I took a nap. My phone rang and i woke up, you know the kind were you actually remember what you were dreaming about. It usually fades pretty quickly, but I still remember the important part. That Pritchard, through a series of barters and trades with multiple teems, in unpecidented fasion, pulled off the draft day move, that would nessessitate league wide rule changes (named in KP’s honer), to protect other gms from being so viciously taken advantage of, and acuired the number one overall pick in the draft, for 2 second rounders and von wafer.

In this draft, the Blazers will not make any 1st round draft picks that will make their 2008/2009 14 man roster.

Outlaw + #13 to Minnesota for the #3. That would net us Mayo, and if Miami wanted to play ball, we would have a choice between Mayo and Beasley. I think you would have to figure out a way to get Beasley in that situation and I think KP gets it done. Trading to get #3 could even get us to the promise land by trading #2 + additional considerations for Derrick Rose.

I really do think, though, that KP is working on getting the #3. From there he has the flexibility to go wherever he wants – Pritch-slapping the whole way there. I could see KP trading up to trade and fleece folks on his way down.

Three players I’d like to see in a Blazers draft day bonanza? OJ Mayo + Chris Douglas Roberts and a stashed-overseas Nicholas Batum, who I still think has a lot of upside (after a flurry of trades involving 2nd round picks and cash considerations).

I would be equally happy with Michael Beasley after trading for #3 (with Outlaw or Webster + #13) and then trade Mayo/#3 to Miami with some combination of Jack, Frye and McBob. For the rest of the picks KP goes with a flurry of 2nd rounder, future picks, end-of-benchers and cash trades to get CDR and some second rounders like Serge Ibaka and/or Nathan Jawai. I think it would be good to have some stashed big men ready to take over for Joel and RLEC when the time comes.

In all honesty the move I see Portland making is some sort of trade with Minnesota to get into the #3 spot involving either Webster or Outlaw but not both. From there here are some of the lineups possible:

(@= could be involved in trades)

PG: Mayo/Blake/Sergio
SG: Roy/Fernandez/Webster@
SF: Webster@/Outlaw@/Batum
PF: LMA/Frye@/CDR
C: Oden/Pryz/RLEC@

or

PG: Roy/Blake/Sergio
SG: Webster/Fernandez/JJ33@
SF: Beasley/Webster/Fernandez/JJ33@
PF: LMA/Frye@/CDR
C: Oden/Pryz/RLEC@

Either of those line ups just looks devastating even if you take out the @ players. I love Outlaw and Webster but the biggest, best back court in history would be 6’5” Mayo + 6’6” Roy = HUGE back court or the most dominating front line ever from 3 to 5 would be Beasley, LMA and Oden. Either of those setups would have me drooling and thinking deep playoffs next year.

KP gets it; KP gets it done. I can’t foresee his moves afterwards, but I say KP targets #3 and gets it done if humanly possible.

I know how KP operates, and he is not trading Outlaw. Not for anything, at least this year. Yes, he would tell you that if the right offer came along he would pull the trigger, but let me say this. KP’s value of Outlaw will always be more than ANYONE else’s value of Outlaw, so essentially no deal will be done for Outlaw this year. End of story.

If I had to guess, I’d say we swap picks with New Jersey, essentially moving us up 3 slots. We then take Westbrook or Alexander with the pick. New Jersey will get cash, our second rounders, or maybe even a player swap that benefits them.

So yeah, we pick @ 10 and get Alexander or Westbrook.

Hope you were takin’ notes, cuz’ that’s how it’s goin’ down.

is that the known proclivities of KP and Coach Nate, and the stated goals from them, are stepped on by the prediction. Here are five laws of player acquisition I believe will be followed:

1. Defense is important. A player that does not defend well must be an LBJ on offense to be tolerated. This is as much demonstrated intelligence and effort as skill.

2. Culture is important. The player must fit in and keep a clean record. In this regard we are not likely to add a player that wants this to be his team.

3. Age is important. Age 23-28 is ideal and younger only if proven. Older may be past prime when we are at the top but some low-cost veterans may help train the younger guys. .

4. We are not looking to develop a point guard. We have two in development already. There is a substantial lead time in point guard development and we do not know if Sergio and Peteri are already our long-term answer. In addition the new point guard has to be a substantial improvement over Blake and Jack.

5. We look for value with any acquisition – is the cost worth the benefit and does it help our team. We are not going to pay luxury tax for a JAG (just a guy).

Need to keep a high 2nd round pick for

RICHARD HENDRIX

need to add MUSCLE at PF

He may be the steal of the draft for us.

and it’s soooo simple!!!

We trade for rose.

We find a way to move up to #3 to make it happen. #3 is then the incentive, plus other parts, for Rose. Chicago picks up Beasley because miami drafted mayo and they need that post presence. As a matter of fact, let’s juggle the top three teams in the draft and the blazers plus one other team to make it all happen.

We give away Jack, Webster, McRoberts, sergio, the finland kid, and possible RLEC.

We’ll get some spare parts that we’ll be dumping ala francis. If possible we also take a swing at Alexander.

Oh, and DJ won’t be there after 6. Knicks take him. He fits with the new system and a little afro takes care of the height issues of people seeing over him and his wing span takes care of the rest.

It’s out there, but I asked myself “who would we really want?” and it came down to Augustine and Rose. It’s possible we’d go for Calderon somehow, as he’d be a fit too, but I think Rose is more likely.

This takes care of the cap issue for next year as we only keep Frye and we resign him. SF is a little weak but I suspect one of our parts will be a SF and JJ33 can hold it up if he’s healthy.

I lose my finland kid, but for Rose, I can live.

You heard it here first folks.

This is fun!

Raef, Jack, #13 (Koufos), pick #33 to the Spurs for Tony Parker.

Some other considerations to make it work for the $.

2008-09 lineup
SF – Prince/Outlaw
SG – Roy/Rudy
PG – Paker/Blake/PK
PF – LMA/Frye
C – GO/Pryz

Sergio gone before camp, McBob is a practice dummy

I think you’ll see KP drop the #13 and Webster or Frye to NJ for harris. Seems reasonable for both sides, and frees up at least one of those monster restricted contracts next year.

KP trades #13, #27 to New Jersey Nets for the #10.

KP drafts DJ Augustine at #10. Trades away two of 2nd rounders for future 2nd round picks and drafts Batum with #33.