FanPost

Unconventional wisdom

So I go away for a few days to an undisclosed location and upon returning find that, once again, many of us are calling for trades to remedy one or more imagined weaknesses. According to the conventional wisdom:

(1) We need to upgrade the starting PG

(2) We need to upgrade the starting SF

(3) We need more experienced players

(4) We need tougher players

(5) We need better perimeter defense

(6) There won't be enough minutes to go around next year

I'm not going to exhaustively dissect each of these points. You can make good arguments for all of them. However, I believe we could see reasonable improvement in all cases with, at most, some minor roster fiddling. Here's why:

To (1) and (2), I say you don't have to dominate at every position to win. In particular, you don't have to have an all-star at PG if you play good team basketball and have other players who can shoot, pass, and penetrate effectively. Surely we have people already on the team, previously drafted, or obtainable at #13 this year who are good enough.

To (3), I say experience may be over-rated. Stockton and Malone had lots of experience, for what good it did them. We just need talented guys that work hard to win. Regardless, the Blazers are not getting younger -- they're maturing and they're hungry to get into the post-season.

As for (4), I am not worried that the team is too nice or too soft. These Blazers are competitors, and they want to win. I was proud of how our guys reacted to physical play and bullying tactics this year. Outlaw and Webster, for example, both showed a tendency to get even instead of getting mad. Our team is coming back with confidence and bigger, stronger bodies. And really, can you imagine anyone intimidating Greg Oden?

Point (5) is often stated in terms of the need to prevent easy penetration for layups or dunks. With Oden in the middle, opposing teams will find it more difficult to finish around the hoop. I don't recall a lot of teams beating us by bombing away from the 3-pt line, so I'd guess that our overall defense will be at least decent next year. Besides, this is an area that Nate really stresses, and if the team is willing to work hard at it, they will see good results.

The final point, (6), is definitely true, but it shouldn't concern us greatly. If players have talent, work hard, and are willing to accept narrower roles, fewer minutes, and possibly less money than they might get elsewhere in order to be part of a great team and win a championship, then it's a no-brainer to keep them. If, on the other hand, they'd rather start or play more or make more money, then more power to them, and we can certainly accommodate them through trades or letting them go as free agents. Meanwhile, I trust KP to keep the pipeline filled with new young talent and quality veterans.

Here, then, are my predictions for the team through draft day. They are based on the hope that the Blazers management demonstrates some unconventional wisdom and does not tamper overly much with the team:

* Wafer will not be re-signed. He seems like a good guy and is not untalented, but we have better options. Along with Miles' slot, that gives us at least two positions to fill.

* Rudy joins the team. Ole!

* Koponen is signed, and will play in the D-League with McRoberts. Both these guys could be important to us in a year or two. Petteri seems to have the talent and work ethic to succeed in the NBA, but needs to face better competition than he did in Finland. If we don't sign him now he may be lost to a long-term Euro contract. Josh is an intriguing prospect. He has an uncommon skill set, but so far hasn't demonstrated the seriousness you would hope for. We can certainly give him one more year to develop. If Frye finds the buffet is tastier elsewhere, McRoberts might be our guy behind Aldridge.

* If James Jones re-signs, the #13 pick will be used for a Euro-player, that African prodigy, or somebody else we can keep on ice. Alternatively, KP might be able to trade #13 for a good future first-rounder. I'd like James to stay with the team if he wants to be here. I do worry about his unpredictable knee injury status. Ultimately, I trust that KP can evaluate the risks and benefits and offer him what makes sense for the Blazers.

* If Jones does not re-sign, we use the #13 pick for a forward who would join the roster this year, maybe Rush.

* If any other player is to be traded, then it is Jack, along with the #13, in order to get somebody they really like this year, either a guard or a forward. I think Jack will improve his game, and I'm not averse to keeping him. However, I was struck by some of his comments this year, indicating to me that he is not exactly the team-first kind of guy we say we want.

I don't have any idea what KP will do with the second-round picks we have, but I'm prepared to be pleasantly surprised.

Next season, barring serious injuries to the principal cast, I predict Greg stomps, Rudy romps, and the young and talented but year-older and considerably hungrier Blazers wreak havoc in the west and ascend to the NBA throne.

Sorry to go over 75 words.