FanPost

Rating the Draft

The trick to the NBA Draft is that it's very difficult to say how strong they really are until years later.  We all think the 1984 draft was one of the strongest of all time.  Many people think the 2003 draft was just as strong. It's been five years, has enough time  passed to judge the 2003 draft?  I think so.  For the purposes of this evaluation, I'm using six categories, ranking zero to five.  At the top - Super-Star, then All-Star player, Starter, Rotation (>12 minutes a game), Bench (in league for at least 5 years), and Washout.  Players with chronic injury issues are numerically knocked down one level.

  1. LeBron James - Super-Star (5)
  2. Darko Milicic - Starter, injury issues (2)
  3. Carmelo Anthony - All-Star (4)
  4. Chris Bosh - All-Star (4)
  5. Dwyane Wade - Super-Star, injury issues (4)
  6. Chris Kaman - Starter (3)
  7. Kirk Hinrich - Starter (3)
  8. T.J. Ford - Starter, injury issues (2)
  9. Mike Sweetney - Washout (0)
  10. Jarvis Hayes - Rotation (2)
  11. Mickael Pietrus - Rotation (2)
  12. Nick Collison - Starter (3)
  13. Marcus Banks - Bench (1)
  14. Luke Ridnour - Rotation (2)
  15. Reece Gaines - Washout (0)
  16. Troy Bell - Washout (0)
  17. Zarko Cabarkapa - Washout (0)
  18. David West - All-Star (4)
  19. Aleksander Pavlovic - Rotation (2)
  20. Dahntay Jones - Washout (0)
  21. Boris Diaw - Rotation (2)
  22. Zoran Planinic - Washout (0)
  23. Travis Outlaw - Rotation (2)
  24. Brian Cook - Bench (1)
  25. Carlos Delfino - Rotation (2)
  26. Ndudi Ebi - Washout (0)
  27. Kendrick Perkins - Starter (3)
  28. Leandro Barbosa - Rotation (2)
  29. Josh Howard - All-Star (4)

Second round notables (non-washouts) are Kapono (2), Luke Walton (2), Steve Blake (3), Willie Green (3), Pachulia (2), Bogans (2), Bonner (1), Mo Williams (3), James Jones (2), and Korver (2).

Overall, while the total first round score is a 59, six points better than the 53 of the 1984 draft (which, it should be pointed out, had only 24 picks), the depth of the draft was extraordinary, as a stunning 10 players are still in the league from the second round, all but one of them as starters or rotation players, adding 22 more points for a total of 81.

In comparison, the draft of 1984 had only a few later round players of note - Jerome Kersey, Ron Anderson, and Rick Carlisle.

Surprisingly, the 2004 draft first round was on paper a little stronger than the 2003 draft, at 60:

  1. Dwight Howard - All-Star (4)
  2. Emeka Okafor - Starter, injury issues (2)
  3. Ben Gordon - Rotation (2)
  4. Shaun Livingston - Starter, injury issues (2)
  5. Devin Harris - Starter (3)
  6. Josh Childress - Rotation (2)
  7. Luol Deng - Starter (3)
  8. Rafael Arujo - Washout (0)
  9. Andre Iguodala - Starter (3)
  10. Luke Jackson - Bench, injury issues (0)
  11. Andris Biedrins - Rotation (2)
  12. Robert Swift - Starter, injury issues (2)
  13. Sebastian Telfair - Rotation (2)
  14. Kris Humphries - Rotation (2)
  15. Al Jefferson - Starter (3)
  16. Kirk Synder - Rotation (2)
  17. Josh Smith - Starter (3)
  18. J.R. Smith - Rotation (2)
  19. Dorell Wright - Starter (3)
  20. Jameer Nelson - Starter (3)
  21. Pavel Podkolzine - Washout (0)
  22. Viktor Khryapa - Washout (0)
  23. Sergei Monia - Washout (0)
  24. Delonte West - Starter (3)
  25. Tony Allen - Rotation (2)
  26. Kevin Martin - Starter (3)
  27. Sasha Vujacic - Rotation (2)
  28. Beno Udrih - Starter (3)
  29. David Harrison - Rotation (2)

One difference is, this draft had a more typical 7 additional points in the second round via four players, Anderson Varejao, Royal Ivey, Chris Duhon, and Trevor Ariza, for a total of 67.  As you've probably read elsewhere, the thing that made the 2003 draft amazing was the sheer number of good players available.

Still, I think it's too early to evaluate the 2004 draft.  Not only are there players there who look like possible to likely future All-Stars (Deng, Iguodala, Jefferson, Josh Smith, Kevin Martin), there are others who are probably going to wash out of the league and whose present value may be inflated versus an analysis done at the end of their careers.  That said, another difference between the 2003 and 2004 drafts, and the reason for the higher score is that there were fewer busts in the latter.  Still not a sterling testimonial for Nash, the 2004 draft.

Speaking of which, all of this is a separate question from the draft value of players to the teams that actually held their draft rights when draft night was over, which is a better measure of the performance of drafting team GMs.  Of course, the real measure of a GM is does he bring home a championship trophy.  Say what you want about Danny Ainge, such as, that he's a no talent hack who happens to have a good friend who was willing to give him KG for Jefferson, some draft picks, and filler.  But the Celtics are poised to win a title.  The same argument could be made about Kupchak regarding the Gasol trade.

What about this draft?  I guess we'll have to check in five years.