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The Blazers should draft for need

Our poor Blazers have been getting reamed for decades now for picking Sam Bowie instead of Michael Jordan. In other words, drafting for need instead of taking the best player available (BPA). I think most of the time a GM must draft for need, not take the BPA.

Star-divide

One of the most common quotes you hear from players who have been getting sparse minutes for years who, when suddenly getting starter's minutes, produce great results is, "I knew I could do this if I just got the chance." Most bench players are probably getting the minutes they deserve, but no doubt there are guys warming the pines in the NBA or playing in the NBDL or in Europe who could be starters for a lot of NBA teams.

It's a chicken-and-egg thing: Players need lots of NBA minutes to develop their games to the NBA level, but coaches will seldom give big minutes to someone who hasn't already proven he can deliver the goods on the big stage. It makes me wonder how much talent is slipping through the cracks in the NBA system -- talent that, given the chance, would perform better than lesser players who have found a place in the league through luck, good timing, good management, etc.

The Blazers feel they are set for the next decade at center, power forward, and shooting guard; in both the white and black units. But what if the BPA at #13 plays one of those positions? If KP blindly follows the BPA strategy, the Blazers could end up with a guy who will never get a chance to earn a roster spot. In that case, he'll end up as cap filler in a trade or will be released and become another coulda-been.

MJ didn't become the GOAT overnight, and he was drafted into the perfect situation for him to develop the way he did. If the Blazers had taken Michael Jordan, would he ever have become MJ if he had had to beat Clyde for the SG job?

Any draftee is a crapshoot. He could be a stud or a dud. KP has said the team needs to upgrade at point guard. If he picks a point guard, even if he doesn't think that player is the BPA, the team will at least be getting someone who has a shot at becoming a starter or reserve with the team, because the current talent level at that position on the Blazers is not as high as at the other positions. If he's good, he'll get more minutes than a C, PF, or SG draft pick would, which means he'll develop his game more, get seen by other players and GMs more, and become a better and more valuable player, even if he's eventually traded, than would a C, PF, or SG who was more highly regarded in his draft class.

I think the only time a GM goes for a BPA regardless of team positional need is when the BPA is definitely head-and-shoulders above everyone else at that pick. In a draft like this, there is no clear BPA after the first two picks, so I say draft for need. What do you think?

 

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Ummm.

Drafting for need resulted in the Blazers taking Webster over Paul.

Sure, it turned out well with Oden, but the odds were slim. The right choice was Paul, even though we had Telfair already.

Wouldn’t you rather have Paul and Roy than Roy, Aldridge, and a 5.3% at Greg Oden?

Paul > Aldridge

by bleedingblackandred on Jun 16, 2008 6:50 PM PDT   0 recs

The Blazers did want Paul, but he muddied the picture

I remember that the Blazers actually were considering Paul and might have gone with him if Paul hadn’t said to the media that he did not want to play for Portland. The Blazers were in the thick of Jailblazer image problems and the last thing they wanted was their draft pick refusing to report for duty and going into detail why. That reduced Paul’s value to the Blazers.

Also, John Nash had a man-crush on Telfair. He had lobbied hard for him and drafting Paul would have made him look incompetent.

Wouldn’t you rather have Paul and Roy than Roy, Aldridge, and a 5.3% at Greg Oden?

If you’re going to assume we knew that Paul was going to be an MVP candidate in his third season, you also have to assume we knew we would win the Greg Oden lottery. And you still have to remember Paul’s comments about not playing in Portland. The memory of Stevie Franchise refusing to play for the Grizzlies was still fresh in Blazer management’s minds.

Oh yeah—Paul had slugged a guy in the nards a few months before the draft, and that was scaring Nash, Patterson, and Allen, too.

And we had no idea during the Paul draft that we would even have as much as a 5.3% shot at GO. He wasn’t even on the Blazers’ radar at that point outside of their fondest dreams.

"I don't trust lawyers." --David Stern

by MiledAnimal on Jun 16, 2008 7:19 PM PDT to parent up   1 recs

If I remember . . .

. . . it was that Pritchard (then just an assistant GM and scout) wanted CP3,
but Nash (possibly Patterson, too – remember him? It wasn’t just the Nash era)
was stuck on Bassy and MarWeb, and won out as GM.

Blazers have a five-on-three...and they pull it back and wait for help.

by QualityPie on Jun 16, 2008 7:33 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I dont remember reading this

do you have a source? I have been wondering about this for a while but have never seen confirmation on KPs wishes in 05’.

Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.

by jonestr on Jun 17, 2008 9:17 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

His Wikipedia article says so

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Pritchard (early coaching and management career)

But there is no source listed. Could be because he saw his potential, and it would have been the best thing to do in hindsight to create the scariest team on the planet (if at least we would have landed Oden and Roy afterwards too). You could even argue the second mistake that day was trading Linas Kleiza for Jarett Jack, but well…

Or it could be that somebody just added this in order to support the KP monument of a guy who can’t fail when it comes to evaluating and acquiring talent.

by Norsktroll on Jun 17, 2008 10:37 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I think KP is to classy

to let his views known on the Paul v Martell situation. Just my opinion though.

Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.

by jonestr on Jun 17, 2008 6:31 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

KP is Crazy

He gets credit for every good thing to happen to the franchise and he’s free of every bad thing. He drafted Walton.

"lowest common denominator - every time I think you hit rock bottom you sink it deeper into the shale" -- bow4meow

by tominhawaii on Jun 17, 2008 7:12 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

No...he wanted to sign Moses Malone

but who needs a quality back up center, right?

"My favorite relative was Uncle Caveman. Us kids would visit him in his cave. He would eat one of us from time to time. It wasn't till years later that we realized Uncle Caveman was a bear"

Jack Handy

by 92wastheyear on Jun 17, 2008 8:35 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Ok,

What I am saying is that, looking at that deal, because of a lucky shot, we have a better core than we would have if we had taken Paul.

I’m not assuming Paul would be an MVP candidate. I was saying, at the end of Paul and Webster’s second seasons, before landing Oden, it was pretty clear that Paul was the right choice, as Telfair was shipped out of town for Roy. I am assuming he would be better than Martell Webster and should have been the pick regardless of our PG situation at the time.

Landing Oden was clearly a franchise-altering moment, but, if not for beating the long odds, we still would be longing for Paul in a Blazers uniform as opposed to Martell.

It’s funny how things work out though. Now Paul is citizen of the year, has taken New Orleans to the second round of the playoffs, and reached MVP contender status; yet the Blazers wouldn’t take back picking Martell over him.

The NBA: where a 5.3% chance at redefining a franchise happens.

by bleedingblackandred on Jun 16, 2008 8:19 PM PDT to parent up   1 recs

Can you even say

Paul and Roy? Paul almost took OKC to the playoffs in his rookie year with a pretty shaky roster. I am not sure we even get Roy if Paul was the pg in 05’-06’. I do have a feeling we would have Roy anyway as that draft was supposedly thin and would have probably been easy to trade into.

Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.

by jonestr on Jun 17, 2008 9:19 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

We picked Roy

As part of a trade, not with our pick gained by having a poor record.

Telfair + TREC for Roy and RLEC.

So we would have had Roy.

by bleedingblackandred on Jun 17, 2008 4:06 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

That is true

but if we draft Paul does Telfair get to show anything that makes Ainge think he is worth trading for?

Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.

by jonestr on Jun 17, 2008 6:29 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Oden

We don’t know yet if it turned out right with Oden. It may appear that it turned out right but we cannot really say because Oden hasn’t played an NBA minute yet.

Need to stay honest. Oden may still turn out to be Sam Bowie version 2.0.

Winning is everything.

by MT Suit on Jun 16, 2008 9:01 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

There's no guarantee that if we draft for need the guy gets PT.

We needed interior toughness last year. McRoberts has a little bit, at least in comparison to the rest of the team sans Oden, but he was the human victory cigar.

...

Now I need to go update the BlazersEdge Dictionary.

One of Two Official Blazer's Edge Poets Laureate for the 2008-2009 Season

Chaplain of the Jarrett Jack Fan Club

"Scholars have long known that fishing eventually turns men into philosophers. Unfortunately, it is almost impossible to buy decent tackle on a philosopher's salary." - Patrick McManus

by T Darkstar on Jun 16, 2008 7:17 PM PDT   0 recs

Sure, but the odds are a lot better

Look at it this way: What if the best player in the draft at #13 is a SG? How much playing time is he likely to get behind Roy and Rudy? How about if the BPA is a center? That guy would have to play behind GO, Joel, Channing, and LaMarcus.

If KP believes the BPA at #13 is head-and-shoulders above everyone else, sure, take him, whatever his position. If not, take the BPA at your position of need.

"I don't trust lawyers." --David Stern

by MiledAnimal on Jun 16, 2008 7:25 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes right

A combination of the BPA matrix and the team need matrix. That is the proper methodology. A hybrid BPA-need methodology.

Winning is everything.

by MT Suit on Jun 16, 2008 9:02 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Kind of more like, BPA first, Need as the tiebreaker.

Because you know what?
At just about any draft position imaginable (first, thirteenth, fifty-second), there will be several players
who will be roughly equal for the title of “Best Player Available”, and then among them, Need will decide.

I’m not sure that Oden is definitively BETTER than Durant so much as, be it the Blazers or anyone else,
a franchise-quality center is so much rarer than a wing player – that is, for ANY team in that position,
Oden fits the “Need” criteria much better than Durant does.

There’s always a tie (or nearly so) for BPA.
Need breaks that tie.

Blazers have a five-on-three...and they pull it back and wait for help.

by QualityPie on Jun 16, 2008 9:17 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

our poor blazers????

Sorry, cant get past the first three words.

If you dont talk to your cats about catnip, who will?

by bow4meow on Jun 16, 2008 7:36 PM PDT   0 recs

If you think that's bad

don’t read MT Suit’s comment!

"I don't trust lawyers." --David Stern

by MiledAnimal on Jun 16, 2008 10:08 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

not following

whats wrong with MT suits comment? Our poor Blazers have been getting reamed for decades now for picking Sam Bowie instead of Michael Jordan… can we get over it?

If you dont talk to your cats about catnip, who will?

by bow4meow on Jun 18, 2008 4:17 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

You have a problem with "Our poor Blazers"

and have no problem with MT’s “Oden may still turn out to be Sam Bowie version 2.0”?

"I don't trust lawyers." --David Stern

by MiledAnimal on Jun 19, 2008 2:24 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Wait

You’re saying Michael Jordan became who he was because he was drafted into the perfect situation? Clyde would have just shifted over to SF. Jordan is a basketball absolute in any situation. He would have been great wherever he went – immediately.

by begottenson on Jun 16, 2008 10:16 PM PDT   0 recs

Jordan had it in him to be great

but he still needed the right situation, coach, teammates… and no star playing in front of him at SG. Maybe his eventual brilliance would still have emerged without those things… but maybe not.

"I don't trust lawyers." --David Stern

by MiledAnimal on Jun 16, 2008 10:26 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Do disrespect

but that is absurd. Float that one by the Blogabull folks, see how they feel about it.

by begottenson on Jun 17, 2008 9:22 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Wow - three incorrect assumptions here

First is the assumptions we drafted Bowie solely on need. It was a bigs centrist league then. The previous 7 years starting with our own Bill Walton had been won with dominant big men. Moses Malone, Kevin McHale & Robert Parish, Kareem, Wes Unseld, Jack Sikma were those players. To get past Kareem we needed center. Ralph Sampson was ROY that year and Houston getting Hakeem made it all the more critical for us to take size. Nearly the entire country at that time (other than NC alums) thought Sam Bowie was the 2nd BPA in the draft. Jordon proved you can win without a center but we didn’t know it then. So BPA is weighted by the production of positions as well as talent and skill and character. What we don’t want to do is reach (taking a player ahead of where he should be drafted). Reaching is in the eyes of the scouting and not in the eyes of BSPN.

Second the assumption voiced above that Chris Paul was BPA at 3 when we traded with Utah. Obviously Utah didn’t agree as they took Williams with Paul going 4th. And BPA includes character which was a real problem with drafting Paul. If we screwed up it was not staying and taking Williams. Webster is still young and cannot be fully compared. This year however is critical for him to prove he belongs in the top 10 of that draft. He just might do it.

Third the assumption that we take BPA at 13 even if we don’t need or like him. This is plain wrong. KP has proven that he will move spots to get a player at the correct BPA spot he wants. If that is not going to happen at 13 we move out.

Our poor Blazers have never been Pritchslapped. Poor league!

Aldridge said. "We feel like we can beat any team. We feel like we can beat the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, whoever any night right now, and we'll still be here when those teams get old and their guys retire. We're going to be here for a long time."

by lee3022 on Jun 16, 2008 10:39 PM PDT   0 recs

WHAT??

1.We had Moses and traded him, so please don’t mention him first among dominant big men.
2. Utah rights aside, Martell will NEVER be as good as Deron or Chris.. let’s face up.

Chris Paul/Deron was real opportunity that slipped through our fingers and that’s that. Perhaps we wouldn’t have been lousy enough to draft Oden, perhaps the Roy trade wouldn’t have happened, but I’d take CP3 any day of the week over potentials. I blame pre-KP management, personally. That, and simple human fallibility.

"Well, Travis just showed us that we can go to Travis Outlaw." - Nate McMillan

by 12sharks on Jun 17, 2008 1:56 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

"Martell will NEVER be as good as Deron or Chris"

Probably true statement. However…it was Martell and Jarret vs Paul or Williams

"My favorite relative was Uncle Caveman. Us kids would visit him in his cave. He would eat one of us from time to time. It wasn't till years later that we realized Uncle Caveman was a bear"

Jack Handy

by 92wastheyear on Jun 17, 2008 4:48 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

And the pick that became Joel Freeland a year later

though I fear he want qualify as a tiebreaker ;-)

Coach, I promise I wasn't running hard ...

by Norsktroll on Jun 18, 2008 7:53 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Joel Freeland=Stud

Joel Freeland=Stud

by hightide on Jun 18, 2008 3:07 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Haha

I was gonna say, “Watch out for Hightide he won’t like that talk” but you proved me right before I could say sumthin’!

Morty-murr

by Mortimer on Jun 18, 2008 3:18 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I gotta stick up for my buddy

Though, I am in no way saying that he is worth CP3, I’m not that crazy.

Joel Freeland=Stud

by hightide on Jun 18, 2008 6:44 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Always best player available

There is no rule saying you have to play 1 point guard, 1 shooting guard, 1 small forward, 1 power forward, and 1 center at all times. If the best player available is a SG, then maybe sometimes we play 3 shooting guards along with a power forward and a center. How many teams still start a traditional lineup? How many teams finish a game with a traditional lineup?

We just need to get the best players we can. Because this team has so much promise I think we sometimes forget that this team couldn’t even make the playoffs last year. In fact, has anyone on the team other than Blake, Jones, and Raef ever even been in the playoffs?

by zach2046 on Jun 16, 2008 10:55 PM PDT   0 recs

In the lottery? BPA, always

The drafting mistakes are nearly always stemming from drafting for NEED over BPA. In the lottery where the players are more elite and have value even if they don’t play right away, you draft BPA except in extraordinary circumstances.

Jordan would have destroyed any SG in front of him. I get your point, but I do think Jordan is a bad example. He would destroy them on and off the court, Jordan style. He very well might not have liked being in Portland or sharing with Drexler early on, but any situation would’ve been the right situation for Jordan. He was just so dominant MENTALLY, he’d take over any shooting guard of the day.

Let’s say we draft this year’s Jordan, DeAndre. He won’t play much behind Oden and Pryzzle, for sure. But he’s still a legit athletic 7 footer with a lot of value, and could get us something even better than having him on our roster. Hell, maybe he sucks—he won’t even get a chance to show he sucks. It’s a perfect crime!

Later in the draft, I think drafting for far off potential or current needs is just fine. But in the lottery, the talent is too high to merely go with need. Consider need into the equation, if all things equal go for need, but it can’t be the dominant factor into who you draft.

That’s how mistakes are made, and not just Bowie over Jordan.

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Jun 17, 2008 12:25 AM PDT   0 recs

Disregard part of my post

DeAndre Jordan is not a legit 7 footer. Dang dumb jerk.

He’s 6’11” in shoes, what a chump. My grandma is like twenty times taller than him.

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Jun 17, 2008 12:33 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Wow he lost another inch

by the next post he will be a 6’3” point guard and then we will be in business

"My favorite relative was Uncle Caveman. Us kids would visit him in his cave. He would eat one of us from time to time. It wasn't till years later that we realized Uncle Caveman was a bear"

Jack Handy

by 92wastheyear on Jun 17, 2008 4:51 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I took off an inch for the shoes

I used to have a pair of patent-leather, five-inch-tall platform shoes back in my pimpin’ 70s phase. If I were trying to get NBA teams interested in me, I’d get measured in those.

"I don't trust lawyers." --David Stern

by MiledAnimal on Jun 17, 2008 5:34 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Kevin Love musta' borrowed 'em

He’s the tallest 6’7” guy in the WORLD!

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Jun 17, 2008 6:04 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Webster is still improving.

Let’s not forget that Martell would be a senior in college this year.
Paul is a couple of years older and was mature when he entered the
league. PG’s are typically more prepared mentally/physically upon
entry into the NBA and high school shooter/scorers take longer to
come into their NBA skills, ie Rashard Lewis.
We all love and respect BRoy’s game/total package, but look at
what 4 years of college and hard work did for his game. In the end,
the Martell vs. Paul will be in the long run, not the beginning of
acclimation to the big/strong/fast NBA. Have patience !

COINCAST SUCKS !!! BRING BACK OUR BLAZERS !!!

It's GO time !

by walkoff41 on Jun 17, 2008 12:39 AM PDT   0 recs

BPA or Need

I like to run it though an equation, if
BPA*(Trade value exchange rate)>Need
Than go with the BPA.

Joel Freeland=Stud

by hightide on Jun 17, 2008 1:12 AM PDT   0 recs

That’s a really exact formula. Ha ha.

"Well, Travis just showed us that we can go to Travis Outlaw." - Nate McMillan

by 12sharks on Jun 17, 2008 1:59 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I like to say something

Without saying anything at all, its a gift.

Joel Freeland=Stud

by hightide on Jun 17, 2008 1:31 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Can we talk about BPA?

This term is fairly ambiguous. It seems like a lot of BPA is based on what happens after the draft rather than leading up to the draft. Does anybody remember any strong critics of the Sam Bowie pick in 84’ that addresses the issue of talent rather than just his leg injury? I would love to see some evidence that Sam Bowie was not BPA that came out prior to the 84’ draft.

Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.

by jonestr on Jun 17, 2008 9:30 AM PDT   0 recs

I remember that there was a lot of discussion about the Bowie/Jordan choice

I’m convinced the Blazers would have taken Jordan if they hadn’t already had Clyde. I recall that Bowie was not considered the BPA after Hakeem, Jordan was.

"I don't trust lawyers." --David Stern

by MiledAnimal on Jun 17, 2008 11:50 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

That's another reason why I love the NBA

Maybe the best sport for revisionist history. Tons of what if… stories? I love it. In hindsight it’s so easy to say who was the BPA/BPN/MVP/whatever in every draft and trade.

At the time they occured I’m sure there were tons of good reasons to draft high for Bowie, Chris Washburn (what’s in a name?), Shawn Bradley, the Kandi Man, Joe Smith, trade Kobe for Divac, trade Nowitzki for Traylor, etc. Or maybe they were just dumb. I don’t know.

Coach, I promise I wasn't running hard ...

by Norsktroll on Jun 18, 2008 8:10 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

It's an interesting topic for discussion

or argument. I don’t think it can be proven either way.

I do however agree with your points about how thin the line is from very good NBA regular to end of bench player. I’ve always been of the impression that there are always guys who are good enough to be playing, but don’t get the chance. The first two examples that leap to mind are a couple of my favorite former Blazers – Ime Udoka and Mario Ellie. I tend to think Khryapa fits in that category. Nate obviously saw something he liked in him and the guy earned a fair amount of PT. He then gets traded to Chicago and now everybody thinks the guy sucks. Yet someone with the Bulls must have thought enough of him to have him included in a deal to trade down two positions in the draft. My opinion is that Khryapa had Luol Deng and Nociones in front of him, plus the Swiss Mister who had just been drafted. In other words, the only way he’s see PT was if at least two guys got hurt.

by timg56 on Jun 17, 2008 9:31 AM PDT   0 recs

I guess I just disagree...

I don’t think a lot of talent is slipping through the cracks in the N.B.A. . It’s a crucibal of competition and everyone wants to win. Once in a while a guy will find opportunity in a different situation and then “seem” to come out of nowhere but in general if you have talent and are in a good system then 99% of the time the opportunity will arise. I also think history has shown time and time again that you draft BPA not for need. For several reasons. First of all you can draft BPA thinking it’s not a need and then suddenly find yourself due to injury or otherwise “needing” that player. Needs change. Also, of course, if you have a depth of talent it allows for trading for needs. I remember The Blazers drafting Walter Berry, whom we did not actually need, we had Kersey. But Berry had fallen in the draft and was College Player of the Year so we drafted him as BPA. Berry never worked out, for us or anyone in the N.B.A. BUT we were able to trade him based mostly on his reputation for Kevin Duckworth, who was a need. Bottom line for me is when building a team talent is the commodity of value either as a actual piece of your team or as a trading chip, I think you evaluate the entire picture, but then go with BPA and let the chips fall where they may. The deeper you go in the draft the more this tends to homogenize, in other words BPA becomes harder and harder to define. If your looking at two players with what you think are pretty equal potential as far as what type of impact and talent they posses, and one is at a position of need and the other isn’t then I think it’s fair to choose the guy that will fill a need but otherwise I think you have to look at obtaining the best and then use your assets to build the best team you can.

"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"

by Krang on Jun 17, 2008 10:33 AM PDT   0 recs

I'd really like to hear KP's thoughts on this subject

Another reason I hesitate to endorse the BPA-always view is that you can end up with trouble in the locker room when you have too many capable players at one position. It’s not always possible to trade an extra player or two. Sometimes you have contractural issues that require patience, or you want to wait to see which player is the cream that rises to the top, or you just can’t find a team that is willing to take that player or contract. Meanwhile, the BPA is watching his career stall, and some guys have a hard time dealing with that. Look at what happened with Jermaine O’Neal.

What about our current situation? You wrote that the deeper you go in the draft, the less talent differentiation from one player to the next. I think that is true even at the #13 pick. Recent fanposts have been discussing the BPA du jour, Joe Alexander. I want the Blazers to pick Russell Westbrook. Can anyone really say that either of these guys is better or worse than the other? In this draft, at our position, I would draft a point guard or combo guard.

"I don't trust lawyers." --David Stern

by MiledAnimal on Jun 17, 2008 11:45 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

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