Right now they have a possible 5 core pieces and they are not necessarily all 5 starters.

Martell is playing out of his natural position at SF. Granted there are not huge differences between SF and SG, and there are a lot of swingmen in the NBA, but Martell is better matched up against other teams’ shooting guards than he is against some of the league’s small forwards. Martell also is not ideally matched up with Nate as a coach; he would thrive in a more loosey-goosey scheme than he has in Nate’s more structured style of play. In Houston, for example, playing for Adelman and with Yao on the inside, Martell could become an All-Star (provided he found any minutes on a roster that has T-Mac).

But at SG, the Blazers have B. Roy. The Blazers are about to have Rudy F., and - if he is the best player on the board at 13 and the Blazers previously have not made any moves, two BIG ifs - the Blazers well could have another Brandon R(ush). So it seems all but certain that Martell’s only future with Portland is out-of-position as SF, the way Mychal Thompson by necessity spent most of his Portland career at C when, had Walton stayed healthy and on the roster, Mychal could have developed into one of the great PFs in the league.

Meanwhile, #25 is a natural SF who has shown great adaptability to play some PF; but the reason Travis usually was slotted in at PF last year was that Jones and Martell were dividing most of the SF minutes last season, and Frye took longer to get into a groove at PF than anyone anticipated he would. I am predicting Frye to be a pleasant surprise this year as LMA’s back-up, which means that #25 can go back to creating mismatches on the smaller SFs in the NBA.

Martell may become a very, very good player in the NBA, but I think his future is elsewhere, both for his sake and for the Blazers’.

After reading all the posts I still don’t see how all these talented SG/SF can co-exist for an extended period of time. With the (everyone seems to agree) lack of playoff caliber PG being the last Core starter then someone has to go. Whether we are talking about a draft pick or a trade. We need to let some inventory go. We all loved what happen last year but to go to the next step trades will have to take place. Not only for PT but also for chemistry, growing to the next level (playoffs) placing the last couple of players for our top 8 or 9 deep positions but also for future cap purposes. Remeber we have to pay all these players. The Blazers can’t go and blow what they have focused on from the beginning of the transfomation. Talent and Cap. This is what they wanted so lets see how they use it. It’s going to be a great draft (I hope).

on draft night this year.

We will be in the second round of the playoffs next year. At the least.

I don’t believe we need to maximize the value of our players for trade. I believe we maximize our team for wins. These guys get along and another year will show another big jump with Greg and Rudy very significant additions. If a trade is made it still can be made in February to free up more minutes for younger players. Outlaw is not going to lose value. Martell is not going to lose value. Both are on a steep up curve and until Coach Nate believes they cannot develop into what he envisions for them (and who knows when that occurs?), they need to remain.

I do know most here are clamoring for another PG. I have also heard KP and Coach Nate say they highly value flexibility. And KP has said he wants to get more athletic in the back court. With Martell, LMA, Outlaw, Rudy and Roy you have great flexibility. Rudy and Roy can play together and the other team has the matchup problem. Kopenen and Sergio are both athletic (with Peteri also able to play 2 positions). We also heard KP say with Greg and LMA we need shooters. Martell gives us better defense against post up and perimeter scoring, better rebounding and should be ready to explode this year, especially on defense.

The more likely pick is a great perimeter defender. That might be Westbrook or more likely Rush because KP is talking too much about Westbrook I smell smoke. It could also mean we use a pick on a center. Boston sure needed one tonight. Injury and foul trouble need to be factored in to every team. A trade down to pick up a center and a perimeter defender or a 1st rounder next year would make more sense to me. There are several big centers in this draft lower down who should be happy to practice and play sparingly for a couple more years before taking Joel’s place on a contender. Patience my friends. All will be well!

Here’s an exercise: Take every championship team for the last 30 years. Look to see how many players the team has in common with the team three years prior. I’m too lazy to do this, but my guess is in most cases, you’d find mostly only the stars and the unmovable contracts are constant.

Ergo, if the Blazers are three years out, look for Roy, LMA, and Oden to stay and most everyone else get moved out in trade or free agency. The Blazers are too soon to be thinking about a championship bench. I’d bet they would trade every non-big 3 player on the team for a true fourth piece.

Your 2nd statement concerning Outlaw and Webster, “Unfortunately with the addition of Oden and Rudy there will not be enough time for them both.” is problematic. Considering a lineup of Roy, Rudy, LMA & Oden why would there not be room for both Webster & Outlaw? One would start one would be 6th man.

For my money Jack & Frye are the most redundant players and most likely to be let go.

The other faulty premise is that it’s necessary to maximize trade value of your players. It’s akin to the sentiment of needing to trade an expiring contract rather than just letting it run out. There is value in deciding to allow players to fully achieve their potential even if it results in the determination that they had less potential than you thought as it may turn out you were correct in your initial assessment that they had stellar potential.

Dynasties generally require patience and confidence in your long term vision rather than reacting to the events of the last few months.

I think Portland should Purchase the #15 pick, trade the three second round picks to Orlando for the #22 pick and then package the #13 pick, #15 pick, and the #22 pick and trade for #1 pick or #2 pick. May be a stretch but we could even throw in Jack or Sergio.

I thought Miami, Minnesota, and Seattle are rebuilding so I am a little surprised that none of them would be interested in getting three good players for one good player. Assuming that you are right then I would like to discuss what additional players would get you to #1 or #2. If we would end up with #13, #15 and #22 I think we should go after Eric Gordon, Joe Alexander, Chris Douglas Roberts, Marreese Speights, or Alexis Ajinca. I realize this does not get a PG but all are athletes. Thoughts?

In my opinion Blazerholic made the most relevant post here in stating that it is unreasonable to expect to allocate significant minutes to players who as yet have not played a single minute in the NBA. This on a team that already has a minutes crunch.

I believe that Pritchard is already on record as saying that the Blazers don’t need to get any younger. That having been said, not ignoring the rumor that KP is shopping #13, perhaps it would be useful to move beyond the possibilty that the team will actually make a pick this year. I know, I know, what would there be to talk about?

The better question, which goes back to the original post, is who goes and what might KP want in return. Let’s assume for a minute here that #13 will be traded and that it won’t be used to trade-up. Might it be reasonable that Jack, Martell, or Outlaw be packaged with #13 to get either 1) someone elses’s #1 pick next year or 2) an actual player with NBA experience?

We now know that Phoenix is working hard to get another player in the top 15, and that might make Barbosa available. We also know that the word out of Chicago is that if Rose is drafted, they’ll keep Hinrich and Gordon will be out, because his $9 million salary doesn’t work with the need to also sign Deng and Rose, as well as everyone else. Then we have the fact that a number of GM’s, including KP, seem to think that their isn’t that much separation between 3 and 15-20. This would indicate that teams like Minnesota, the Nets, and the Knicks, all of whom have been rumored to be talking trading up, may do so because they think that someone at #13 is almost as good as someone at #7. This would imply that the price for KP to get into the guard territory he might want to get into, may not be as expensive as in other years. He might even get their with his picks and one good second player, such as a Jack to a team like the Nets who can still get their muscle at 13, and get a solid second PG or another player. And for that, they might trade up a few spots. All told, if you think a Barbosa or Gordon would be good in the rotation, or think you’d need to move up, then KP has the kind of draft he needs to do it.

However, my bet is this. If he wants a pure PG, he’ll move to the spot needed to take Augustin. He’s the only certain one not named Rose, and he’s better than Connely was last year – and I don’t hear any whispers about a veteran PG right now that’d be worth the price. But barring that, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him trade out and pick up someone like a Gordon or Barbosa, who he knows can give the team 18 – 20 ppg, and give the Blazers a strong shooter.

It’s now 4 days until the draft, and if the mock drafts tell us something, it’s that they don’t have any more of an idea what’s going to happen, than we do. And KP and a number of the GM’s that might know, aren’t talking. In fact, other than Phoenix floating the Barbosa/Webster rumor, and a few other such tidbits, about all we know is that a lot of these GM’s say the same things. We do/don’t want to get younger, we’ll keep the pick or trade, etc. They are, in sum,keeping all their options open. Memphis is a lock for Love – but they aren’t. Augustin will go to NY at 6, or he’ll go to Sac at 12. Gallinari will go to NY at 6, or he’ll go to the Blazers at 13. Alexander will be gone by 8, or is it 6,, or he’ll drop to 12. Westbrook will go at 5, or he’ll go at 11, Lopez will go at 6, or he’ll go at 11. Jordan and McGee may go by 13, or 12,, or they may go by 18.

Frankly, we only actually know several things in general. The #13 is the last lottery pick we’ll have for a long time. We have cap space coming next summer – a lot of it. Some will have to be used to keep the core we have, some can be used to find – not a star – but a solid contributor who can give us 15 – 18 points a game, and supplement Roy, Oden and Aldredge. KP knows that you have no reason to keep players on the bench in the 10-15 spots as insurance if they have more value now to someone who can use them in the rotation at the 6 – 10 spots, because you can always get insurance players to fill in those spots in the coming years. And that’s what they are, 8 – 10 minute insurance players. He also knows that it’s better to trade someone when they’ve been playing 20 + minutes every game and look like a 6 -10, than when they are putting only 8 – 10 minutes in and look like a 10 -15. In the coming years, we can use the picks we will have in the 20 and up range, buy other picks, or work cap’/salary deals to get such players. Our history on #2 picks is that, so far, none of them have ever made the lineup in the 1 – 10 spots. So, to us, they may have value, but in practice, they don’t.

KP knows his job. Each year he has surprised everyone and virtually none of it was predictable until draft day. One constant is that he has always said that if they see a player they want to target – then they’ll go after that player. But, he’s also realistic. The current chips given Oden and Fernandez are the #13, Jack/Sergio at guard, and one of Webster/Outlaw/Frye at the SF/PF position. This, in turn, can be adjusted depending on who the target is – as they will fill a spot. Trading 2 players likely slated for the 6 – 10 spots, and a 13 that may also fit that role, means we’re trying to trade 3 rotation players for one starter. Since those in the 1 -5/6 often think they’re getting an all-star (Beasely, Rose, Bayless, Mayo, etc), it’s more likely we will have to settle for someone in the 6 – 10 range where we’ll find a good complementary starter, but not necessarily an “all-star” possibility.

What we don’t know is if he sees such a player. Further, we also don’t know if he believes he can trade out of the draft and get an equal player, nor who that player is.

His worst case is to use the 13 and players to get someone now who will have the same over-all value as this set next year when the cap space clears, and to then use that player/draft pick etc and the cap space to get the complementary starter he’s looking at then. And he may very well do that. Such a player will help for a year, and then be gone next year. It’s a chess game, after all.

The one thing I do expect is that he’ll use the 3#2’s, possibly purchase a 1st rounder as he did last year, and then package that to get a player that he can leave in Europe who, by next year, may have some additional value. He’s done well this way. Fernandez was a 25 – now he’s moved up 10 -15 spots. Koponen was a 30, but now he’d likely be a low 20. If he does this again, he’d then have not only cap space, but a young player in Europe who might be seen as another 10-15 next year, giving him more trading leverage.