Myth of RLEC and Standing Pat
by blzrfan on Jun 13, 2008 4:46 PM PDT
Email
Print
08/09 Expiring Contracts Above 8.4 mil.
Allen Iverson $21.9 mil
Stephon Marbury $21.9 mil
Jason Kidd $21.3 mil
Mike Bibby $15.2 mil
Lamar Odom $14.5 mil
Rasheed Wallace $13.6 mil
Wally Z $13.0 mil
Raef LaFrentz $12.7 mil
Andre Miller $10.0 mil
Rasho Nesterovic $8.4 mil
Contracts expiring in 08/09 if they don't opt out this year
Elton Brand $16.4 mil
Shawn Marion $17.2 mil
Baron Davis $17.1 mil
Ron Artest $8.4 mil
*Gilbert Arenas and Corey Maggette have already opted out.
Bibby, Odom, Wallace, Wally, and Raef are all strong candidates to be traded this year. Which means our nice expiring contract doesn't hold as much value as most people think. The Gasol trade was once in a lifetime deal.
I think we should make our move on draft night packaging the #13 + RLEC for a starting PG or let it expire next season and use the cap room to trade for a PG using the trade exception. This will be valuable to teams hoping to jump in the monster free agent pool in 09/10. There are no free agent PGs worth signing long term in 08/09 offseason.
Pritchard is in a tough position to upgrade the PG. If there is a trade for Hinrich, it'll be on draft night. I doubt the Bulls will go into the season with Rose, Hinrich, Thabo, and Gordon competing for playing time. Otherwise, I believe we'll draft a PG and let the contract expire and use the cap room for a trade instead of signing a free agent. One unlikely scenario is trading Outlaw, Sergio, Jack + RLEC or some combination to net us the PG during the season providing they are still here.
To all the people who say to stand pat. It won't happen. We have too many forwards(JJ3 stays) and young guards with Rudy coming over. Sergio, Jack, Frye, Outlaw, RLEC, or #13 will be traded. If Pritchard does nothing, those players will lose value due to lack of playing time.
What an exciting Draft coming forth!
25 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Interesting salary information
thanks. It appears to be a buyers’ market with all those expiring contracts dangling out there…I agree with you that a move will be made to clear out players—IMO both a guard and a forward will be gone, cuz the minute crunch has been well-documented.
I don’t think any trade will involve Raef. Thirteen mil off the cap isn’t just for free agents—getting that far under the cap is like having both snow AND extra presents under the tree on Christmas for the devilish duo of Tommy and Kev-O. We don’t have to match salary in trades, we can play the middleman and receive somebody’s crap in a three-way to pick up sweet future first-round picks, and probably dozens of more options I’m not smart enough to know about. Raef walking = room to play.
What is the big deal if they lose value?
I think they have already shown this last season tat not only are they a competent bench, but they are one of the better benches in the league. Now, I agree we could have used better starters in at least two positions but I think Oden will fill one of those nicely, if not next season then soon. If they lose value, that means we don’t have to pay them as much to stay on our bench. And if they don’t end up being useful, don’t resign them in 2009, and get more of that ever-lovin’ capspace.
Although, I do understand what you’re getting at. If we can trade them more something more valuable, then shouldn’t we? Sure, but one needs to take into account how the move will affect our chemistry, not just ‘is player A better than player B?’ Also, does a trade negatively influence our capspace? Is it good enough to be worth it? If Penn and Pritchard think that it’s worth it, then that’s fine, they know a lot more than I do. But I’m all for letting them all stay next year to see if they are worth keeping or are salarycap fodder. Because, as bench players, they don’t have that much value to anyone else anyways.
One of Two Official Blazer's Edge Poets Laureate for the 2008-2009 Season
Chaplain of the Jarrett Jack Fan Club
"Scholars have long known that fishing eventually turns men into philosophers. Unfortunately, it is almost impossible to buy decent tackle on a philosopher's salary." - Patrick McManus
... Seriously, WHAT IS the big deal if they lose value?
I agree, worst case scenario for some of these players on the white-squad is that we will be able to use them in the future to move up a few slots in the first round. We don’t need to get like-for-like or even be Pritch-slapping the heck out of other franchises with our moves. We need to retain and develop the best FIT players to our system and with our Big-3 of Oden, LMA & B.Roy.
There is no way I would let Travis Outlaw be traded. Or, Martell Webster for that matter. Both proved to be more than serviceable this past season and next season will be their “consistency” building season.
Jarrett Jack could be a major asset for us on the court in the future or in the green room this off-season. If we hold pat on J.Jack for another year, I believe he will still have value.
Sergio, he is so young and such an unknown commodity that there is some value there, but if he doesn’t pan out so be it. He cost Allen some money, but… dare I say, who cares.
Frye loves Portland. He isn’t better than LMA, but he IS amazing insurance for him. If we trade him now, he definitely has some teams that will want to move. If we wait and he is buried on our bench… More power to us!
James Jones is a great specialist, but I am not sure what Trade value he has other than fitting in with salary comps in a trade. He is a solid shooter, but doesn’t have enough anywhere else in his game for him to be anything but a throw in. If he sits and waits to play for us, no problem. I would love to have J. Jones on the bench behind Martell and Outlaw long term.
After participating in the B-Edge Mock Draft today, I seee that Portland IS going to need to make a move if we want a point guard. BUT, the good news is that with the picks we have #13 (first round) and #’s 33,36 and 55 should be enough to move up 1,2,3,4,5 or six slots to get one of the very EXCITING GUARDs in this draft (Augustin, Gordon, or Westbrook are very feasable). We don’t HAVE to trade any of our peices. But, we will need to accomodate room on our roster. Not if we only draft one player though.
Think of our roster with the addition of one of the above guards and no other changes to what we already have:
Brandon Roy
LaMarcus Aldridge
Greg Oden
Travis Outlaw
Martell Webster
Joel Pryzbilla
Rudy Fernandez
INSERT DRAFTED GUARD HERE
Jarrett Jack
Channing Frye
Steve Blake
James Jones
Sergio Rodriguez
Josh McRoberts
Reaf LaFrentz
That is 15 players. And Raef will expire next season to give us room for another first rounder to join the team. IF a player likes Portland and wants to play ball here and be on this winning squad, let them stay. We have a lot of value on our team. Of course, if some of these developing guys don’t pay out, get rid of them later. But, we have 2 to 3 seasons of development to get Greg Oden and Rudy Fernandez up to speed, so what is the hurry.
If, we added Westbrook, Gordon or Augustin to the roster above, I would be VERY VERY VERY EXCITED for next season and next 10!!!
So what if those white-squad guys lose value in the trade market, as long as they retain bench value to Nate, KP and our Starters.
by Portland Dynasty on Jun 13, 2008 8:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Perceived value is important in trading.
First, I’ll just say that I don’t agree that our 3 second round picks will help us move up from #13 unless we add one of our young players. Second round picks are not that valuable, I think the best we could do is package two of them and get a late first rounder from a team that doesn’t want a guarantee contract. I doubt we would do that unless we saw a foreign player we really like and stash him overseas.
If we stand pat, the team will get squeezed in minutes. Young players who produced last year and sit on the bench next year will lose trade value. I do believe our bench has trade value due to their production last year and relative potential. We are most likely going to trade for a PG either in this draft or upcoming year, we should maximize their trade value. I’m not attached to the younger guys on the bench because they are ultimately replaceable.
Here’s my reasoning why each these guys could be or should be traded.
Sergio – Aside from obvious shooting and defensive deficiencies. He doesn’t fit into Nate’s half court offense, Sergio needs to play uptempo and he will never succeed in Portland under Nate. Some team may want him due to his potential and uptempo game.
Jarrett Jack – I think we will trade him this year. He’s in the last year of rookie contract and will become a restricted free agent after the season. With Rudy, Blake, and Roy, Jack may be the one who gets squeezed out of minutes especially if we attain another PG. Better to trade him before his production falls further because we won’t be able to trade him next year.
Frye – Outlaw – Jones – This has been discussed ad infinitum. One of them will be gone, no minutes to go around. Frye and Outlaw have trade value so they might be the most likely candidates if Jones is with the team.
BINGO, BANGO, BONGO
Value of 2nd round picks...
The last couple years Portland has purchased 1st round picks for around $3million. The value to some teams of first rounders is cap penalties, or guaranteed contracts that they don’t want to carry. So, teams will get rid of them for cash… something no team really needs.
If a team is rebuilding, they do not want to sell picks, they want to acquire picks. In today’s NBA, drafting players really makes and breaks teams. The more chances a team has to get a prospect, the better. Besides, many current teams have been building their franchises up by drafting International prospects in the 2nd round, or late 1st and letting them develop overseas. The Blazers current 2nd rounders #33, #36 and #55 all would be valuable tools to help a team trying to add talent, depth and options.
The value of those 2nd rounders is MORE THAN ENOUGH to entice a team to move back 3,4,5, or 6 slots if there is a good chance the player they would like to target is still going to be available. A team can move back, still get the player they would have drafted if they would have stayed pat and add 2 or 3 2nd round prospects. Heck yeah a GM would do that.
Any team getting PTB’s #33&36 would have a chance to add two international players for down the road. That is a huge bonus in today’s NBA. Also, prospects like DJ White, DeVon Hardin and Davon Jefferson are going to be available. Those are prospects Leon Powe, Glen Davis and Jason Maxiell who slipped in the draft. They have definite value for teams.
by Portland Dynasty on Jun 18, 2008 8:25 PM PDT up reply actions
my post vanished...
did I break a rule? Mea culpa if so, just feeling some yuenging lager.
Blazer's fan since '84, Currently exiled in Tennessee and North Carolina
Please disregard the previous post
wrong thread… I can’t really blame that one on the beer can I? Ok fine, I blame Kevin McHale!
Also, David Stern decided that me posting in the wrong thread was in the best long-term interests of the NBA, though Tim Donaghy has testified that BlazersEdge moderators (read: officials) were influenced to move my post to an alternate thread, thus influencing the outcome of this fanpost. Next comes the “superstar calls” for tominhawaii and Mortimer… Bedge is fixed!
Blazer's fan since '84, Currently exiled in Tennessee and North Carolina
lol
I used to always say, “How they heck did that guy post in the wrong thread?” Then the other day while I was cheesin’ I posted a reply in the wrong thread. I think it is darn funny when it happens.
"lowest common denominator - every time I think you hit rock bottom you sink it deeper into the shale" -- bow4meow
This point has been raised before.
We have a lot of young talent to pair with RLEC, so I would say we’re in the best position of all the teams listed. Not only can we improve another team’s cap number, but we can make them a better team. The L*kers could probably say that also, as well as Atlanta, but neither of those teams have the depth that we do on the bench and so couldn’t afford to pair many pieces with the EC.
Basically what I’m saying is RLEC+Jack+Frye or something of that nature is WAY more valuable than say just Mike Bibby or just Lamar Odom or just Jason Kidd.
"These are dreams that we have." --Rudolfo Fernandez
Don't you think that all four of our picks this year moves into striking distance for the guard?
KP has the opportunity to get one of three great guards in this draft, and that would be a huge pull especially if Nate gets to keep his Jarrett-bear and we don’t risk losing our post depth by letting Channing go for less than he is worth. Trade all our picks, get a lottery stud and let Raef retire a Blazer. We will want that cap space and the trade exception that comes with it.
by Portland Dynasty on Jun 13, 2008 8:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe I'm wrong
I’m no NBA GM, but I really don’t think that all four of our picks this year moves us up to anywhere. There’s just not that much value attached to two relatively high second-rounders and a very low one. We might be able to move up one, maybe two spots, but any more than that is stretching reality IMO.
by BlazersOrBust on Jun 14, 2008 2:18 AM PDT up reply actions
I would guess
that a high 2nd rounder might well be worth moving up 1 or 2 spots, depending on the team and who they want to draft. You can get pretty good players early in the second round.
So together, we might move up to #10, and throw in some PA cash and we might make it all the way to #9. But I doubt anyone wants both of our high second rounders and our #13, so you would probably have to work a 3 team deal to make that happen.
Throw in a player, like a lot of people want to do, and we might move higher. It all depends on who KP is targeting, or if he’s trying to trade out of the draft entirely.
Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo
We should trade Raef for Wally just for the heck of it.
"lowest common denominator - every time I think you hit rock bottom you sink it deeper into the shale" -- bow4meow
No Standing Pat
The concept of standing pat and keeping everyone implies that we have everything we need – yet as last season proved, we don’t. The 41/41 record obscured the fact that the last 1/2 of the season was hardly scintillating. I for one think we have some holes to fill.
The minutes on teams are always absorbed by 8 – 10 players. For the rest, it’s their career and their money, and if you don’t play, you can’t affect your career or your income -and that doesn’t make for happy players. As much loyalty as fans have to some players, they are simply not as good as other players, and if you can add someone who is better, you do it.
The logjam the Blazers have isn’t going to get better, it will get worse, and, eventually, we’ll have to either cut or trade some players. We’re adding two rookies already, have the #13 and 3 # 2’s this year, and next summer, could have around $30 million in cap space. No matter how you cut it, Oden and Fernandez, the player/player(s) added via the draft or a trade this year, and the $30 million cap space next, adds up to 4 new players – minimum. And you can’t use those players if you don’t change the roster.
My attitude is that KP is fully aware of this. My bet is that over the next 15 months, at least 4 of the players whose names we mention, we’ll be gone. And, for all the right reasons.
Nice comments throughout this thread
15 months is the key to me agreeing with your last sentence in this comment. (Four players might be a little much but at least two maybe three.) It might happen this summer but I don’t think KP’s bargaining power is diminished if he doesn’t make a big move on draft day. If he doesn’t make a move, the roles will begin to be defined by the players in training camp and the first month or two of the season. Who doesn’t fit will become clear and trade value probably won’t diminish much just because they don’t fit into the Blazer’s rotation.
You have to be in major need of upgrades for the trade value to diminish and I just don’t see the Blazers as in a position of need as much as some seem to think. Upgrades at the 1 and 3 would be ideal but they can be achieved by guys on the roster now, stepping up into those roles.
The only role that I see that will probably be filled this summer is a veteran mid-level exception type signing. If Jones opts out, they would have a roster spot to fill with this type of signing. If he opts in, he fills the role of older guy/mentor.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
Further
If you go to HoopsWorld, you can look at all the pre-draft workouts scheduled by all the teams. The most interesting element of this is that the Blazers, hands down, bring in far more players. Many teams have only a few or handfull scheduled. Others, like Memphis, only have a handfull scheduled, and even with the #5 pick, were either turned down by or didn’t attract any of the top 10 players (with the exception of Love), which is a signal by the players that they aren’t excited about playing there. (Which I’d already heard). Some top 10 (Mayo/Gallinari), are also sending signals about where they will and won’t play, with Gallinari using the leverage of his very good existing contract to hint to teams that if he doesn’t like them – he’ll just stay where he is. Now how many teams will waste a top 10 pick if they can’t even get the guy on the roster? The rumors have players floating up, down and around. KP said from the beginning that the 5 – 20 was really fluid.
What we do know is that KP and his staff are outworking every other team. They look longer, harder, and at more players, and this has been the secret to his success. You really have to wonder about some of these teams. Obviously, they aren’t as organized or systematic as KP and his staff – and its been showing for the last two years.
This pre-draft buzz is just that. All the hype makes for good press, but year after year, that hype disintegrates once the rookies start playing. My attitude is that the Blazers, sitting at 13 in the middle of the 5 – 20 group, are just as likely to get a future starter as any other team in that group. And more likely, because they just out-hustle and outorganize most of those other teams. There’s a reason some franchises are always mediocre (Memphis, Milwaukie, New York, etc), and this is the major one..
by Eben Calder on Jun 14, 2008 7:25 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Yeah
They were good. I still say we stand pat until the trade deadline. What if we did a draft day trade of any of our guys and then at the beginning of the season, we see them kicking buts and taking names on another team, because they improved their game in the areas, Nate asked them to improve in the off season? That would be ever so tragic.
I personally think Jack is in the way and should be moved for his sake. I also think he has a lot of room for improvement because so much of his trouble is mental. If Sergio works on his jump shot and learns how to make layups or teardrop dumpers, then his value significantly increases. Adding defense to his game would be the icing on the cake.
That’s just two guys. KP needs to make some moves to clearly define roles and streamline the roster. I just don’t think he needs to do it until the trade deadline or next year. At the trade deadline, GM’s will be salivating for the RLEC. The 13th pick will still be the 13th pick at the trade deadline, and worth just as much as it is today, unless the guy gets hurt. If KP doesn’t trade the RLEC and some guys at the trade deadline, then I think we can all expect a big move next summer.
"lowest common denominator - every time I think you hit rock bottom you sink it deeper into the shale" -- bow4meow
Nice
I love typos like that. I don’t even want to try to explain what one of those are.
"lowest common denominator - every time I think you hit rock bottom you sink it deeper into the shale" -- bow4meow
Also
The core reason that I respect KP’s approach is that he approaches the draft with the realization that there is a reason that in some years, players like Malone and Kobe don’t get the attention that they, in retrospect, clearly should’ve had. These teams that only hold a few workouts, or who, because they’re drafting high, see no reason to look at anyone but the concensus top 6 – 10, would never bother to look at a Malone or a Kobe. Hence, they’d never draft them, which is how such players end up at #13. KP uses a different approach. His view is that they do exist, and that the pre draft hype and all the rest can often obscure this. Further, he’s a modern GM, by which I mean he understands that when a draft is made up of numerous 19 year old players, that the rules change. They don’t have 4 years of college – and even when players did there were a lot of mistakes made. And with 19 year olds, the likelihood of a mistake is magnified. After all, they haven’t yet matured, finished growing, developed the mental part of the game, or the like. For every Kobe, there’s a Kwame Brown. These teams that don’t get down in the dirt and dig, and keep digging, don’t find the Roys, or Aldridges, let alone the Fernandez’s who, for all practical purposes, was a freebee. And this is the difference.
Right now the player I think about is Serge Ibaka, 18, and from the Congo, who has increasing numbers of GM’s scratching their heads. At 6’10”, 220, and with less BBall experience than most of our own HS Seniors, he still has athletic skills that are superior to almost any other Forward in this draft. He’s one of those that in a few years could make every other forward in this draft look like a bad decision.
I like, by the way, the observation of drafting and then waiting for the trade deadline for the very reasons mentioned. KP is a player – so, let’s let him do it. No one cares more than he does about this team.
Reebok EuroCamp in Treviso...
is an annual meeting of young basketball players, initially oriented to the NBA. Luis Fernández, Director Internacional Scouting Director of Draftexpress.com, did this report 6/9/2008.
“Serge Ibaka is the player who gets more attention in this edition of the Campus, amazing to everybody whenever he takes off for one of his no-engine flights. He´s like a panther, graceful, flexible and powerful. And in spite of the lacks from which his game still suffers, it is difficult to escape to the illusion that his possibilities provoke. If he does not tackle already the NBA adventure (a bit too soon in my opinion), it appears that it he will play in the ACB the next season, where surely he would have more facilities to harden his still slightly ethereal game.”
The Midnight Rambler
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recommended FanShots
Recent FanShots
In Association With
Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sport
- Days of NBA Lives: Wherein Hamed Haddadi goes to the zoo
- David Stern changed the competition committee to push new rules, report says
- Nazr Mohammed films Oklahoma City Thunder fans welcoming the team back at 5:30 in the morning (VIDEO)
- The Orlando Magic finally part ways with both Stan Van Gundy and GM Otis Smith
- Mike D’Antoni breaks silence on New York Knicks exit: ‘An obstacle had to be removed’
