1. I think Martell actually has the best shot (possibly James Jones…). Travis Outlaw, if he stays (and I hope he does), I think is better suited to being a sparkplug off the bench. They could possibly bring in someone else, and to be honest, I could see them trading for a point guard this summer and then using the leftover cap space next summer to consider a small forward upgrade (consider is the key word there).

2. There is no way that in two seasons all three of these players remain on the roster (unless of course we determine that Travis is in fact a power forward- a decision I would question at this point). Each of three is too talented to be 11th or 12th men. As much as I hate to provoke ann and sabonis, I fear that Travis is the odd man out as bait for a point guard- I hope not, but that is the way I see it rolling.

This does not immediately pertain to the specific questions that Dave asked, but I think it factors in to the small forward quandry. One of our biggest concerns with a Roy and Rudy backcourt is the ability to defend quicker point guards. I remember back in the old Phoenix-San Antonio series, Phoenix had Marion guard Parker and San Antonio had Bowen guard Nash with some success. Likewise, the Spurs are now trying (with much less success) to contain Paul with Bruce Bowen.

Back to the subject at hand: if in fact we use a starting backcourt of Rudy and Roy, perhaps we would want a longer and laterally quicker small forward (none of whom exists on the roster currently) to match up on those quick (Paul, Nash, Parker, etc,) or oversized point guards (DW, Billups, etc.). Just throwing that out there, what do you guys think?

where there shouldn’t be any change…..unless something mind-blowing arises of course. they’re all still relatively young, let em grow, see who and what works for another year. the main concern is who is going to guard d will and c paul for the next 10 years? throw in d rose as well. honestly, jack isn’t that bad a defender, so far, he’s played them well. he seriously stepped up to skinner too, and i haven’t seen a blazer do that for a while (not since joel). i say keep him for another year as well, unless…of course,,,something mind-blowing arises

1. one of two options, IMO: Travis or somebody else entirely. With the lineup we have, we need a good perimeter defender more than anything, so I would predict that somebody else entirely will take the slot. I like the idea of someone like Josh Childress. He’s an RFA and Atlanta isn’t going to want to pay him as much as he might get elsewhere (they have to sign Josh Smith already, who will get big bucks). We have a wealth of young talent—got to give some up to get something back. I’d do a sign-and-trade for Childress with Webster and Jack in a heartbeat. Put Childress in the first unit and Outlaw in the 2nd unit, where he has shown he can thrive.

2. I don’t see Webster dealing well with being in the 2nd unit. Last year there was a lot of talk about leaving Webs in the starting lineup because he would lose confidence or whatever coming off the bench. For this reason, I would include him in a trade for a whatever-it-takes kind of player (such as Childress). I think Jones will opt out, and we’d be foolish to let Travis go, unless we have the chance to get an all-star.

3. First and foremost we need a perimeter defender. Childress would be great, and obtainable, I think. We know the core: BRoy, LA and GO. We have some dynamic scorers to complement them: Travis and Rudy (yeah, I know, counting our chickens, but still). Good fit role players: Blake, Przy and Frye. Add in a perimeter defender, and we’re getting very close.

BTW, I’m no Martell hater—I like him, I think he has a future in the league. But if I’m doing a forced choice of what value to trade, I’d choose Martell and JJack.

With Jack being a GA Tech alumni he might be attractive to the Hawks as a back up to Mike Bibby. Childress would be a great player to get back in that trade and would fit the Blazers well. However, this leaves the Blazers without a player (besides Roy) who can get to the bucket at will and contribute from the free throw line. It may be dangerous to assume (remember Bellinelli was supposed to come in and contribute right away in Golden State) but Rudy could possibly fill that role. I think Jack’s a great player and I would hate to see him live up to his potential for another team but at least it would be a team in a different conference!

biggest need is perimeter defense, although it looked pretty good during the streak and I believe it was a zone.

I say let the three of them ride one more year and see the impact on that perimeter defense GO has.

All three have great attributes: for a while TO was Mr. 4th quarter, Jones was Mr. clutch, and MW, is still young enough to keep.

was pushing hard to try to get Danny Granger. Which fits pretty perfectly with what I think we need, which is a quality two way player at the 3, with defense being slightly more important than offense. Granger’s good but not the kind of core building block for rebuilding that Indiana needs - he’s a second or third banana, not the top dawg- so I think they might be receptive to a trade that involves salary relief, picks, and young cheap players. Maybe if we take some of their bad seeds to buy out using paul allen’s money, too.

Other possibilities: Josh Howard, Shane Battier (although Shane’s maybe a little too crappy on teh offensive end to call a 2 way guy – more pure defensive stopper ala Bowen or Bell). Dream player would be Tay Prince. I have high hopes for Jared Dudley, who I think will be another one of these players in another year or two, and who I think could be picked up real cheap. Martell could end up being the guy, but I wouldn’t be overly optimistic—maybe 1 in 2 chance he develops into what we want.

One thing to keep in mind is that guys who become this role are pretty easy to find in the late teens and early 20s of the draft—Shane is the only lottery pick of the guys I mentioned so far. Granger, Howard, Prince, Dudley were all quality two way players that everyone knew about in college, but without the kind of jawdropping athleticism that gets you into the early lottery. So if we want to be patient, we can probably keep looking for Phoenix to sell their picks and for our own picks to be used for trying to identify swing defensive/hustle/glue guys.

From what I’ve observed during the playoffs the good teams (Boston, Detroit San Antonio, New Orleans, Utah and L@kers) are having success on offense because of the following: They have at least one great if not unstopable perimeter scorer and a very good or better post scorer. In addition, the other 3 guys are all capable scorers either by slashing or spot-up shooting. In a set offense, the ball goes to the elite perimeter or post scorer, when doubled that player passes the ball and it keeps moving until it reaches an open man who takes his shot. An example we all know is Bowen in the corner for 3. I f the elite player isn’t doubled, then usually a good shot results from that player.

How do the Blazers fit this model? Well clearly Roy is our elite perimeter scorer and has shown he is more than capable of filling that role. Aldridge is not a clear-cut elite low post scorer as of yet, but he could very well become one with Oden next ot him on the court. Alternatively, Oden may very well be that unstoppable low post threat. In either case the Blazers are sitting in a good spot for their two main guys offensively. Now our other three guys just need to be able to swing the ball to find the open man. During our 13 game streak we showed that this is not only possible but also should be the normal operating procedure.

Now on to defense, The good teams only double team when they absolutely have to double, and their other guys quickly rotate to cover. This prevents any one guy from being left wide open. New Orleans has been beating SA on this strategy so far. The key is that perimeter defenders steer their man into help, this way defensive rotations are more easiy maintained and no one is left uncovered. SA got very few wide open looks after swinging the ball in Game 1 vs. NO; and many times it was Duncan who got the open look at least 20ft out. That’s the shot you wan them to have, not Bowen in the corner for 3 or Manu in the lane.

Again how do the Blazers stack up defensively? Nate got his guys playing excellent defense during the streak, on par with NO so far in the series with SA (IMO). However we have not been able to maintatin that defensive intentisty over the entire season. Rather, the Blazers had several laspes which usually favored slashers into the lane for layups.

I think in another season, the Blazers will show improved consistency on what they have already shown capable during the streak. This is without changing a single player from our roster. Now adding Oden to the mix, I think that our lapses will result in fewer layups at the rim and more outside jumpers. That is what we want. We don’t need a shutdown defender (allthough it helps), we just need good team defenders. This is the model that both Detroit and New Orleans have. I think we can be very comparable to these teams defensively, if not by the end of next season then in 2 seasons time.

In conclusion, I don’t think we need big upgrades at either PG or SF over what we currently have in Blake/Jack/Sergio or Webster/Trout/Jones. We just need to see improved consistency from game to game (and quarter to quarter) from all our players as a whole, beacuse if just one man misses that rotation, somebody is getting a wide open look. I think all we need is incremental improvement. However if we luck into Derrick Rose, I wouldn’t shed a single tear (excepting for joy).

I think James Jones will ask for too much money, and we let him walk.

I think Travis plays better in spurts off the bench, so we keep him to play 3 or 4.

I think Martell is athletic and improving, so he stays to play 3 or 2. I still think Martell is a shooter and it would be a waste of his talents to force him to become a “lock-down” defender although I think he may has the physical ability to be a very good defender. Let’s see him become a good defender and a great shooter.

The problem is too many/not good enough point guards. Who best complements Roy (and the rest of the team) when Roy is in SG mode? Does that complementary player shift when Roy is in PG mode? If Rudy is the best Roy complement when Roy is in PG mode (giant assumption), who is the best when he’s in SG? Nate said Blake, but I don’t think that will work, and I’m not sure Nate is willing to let go of Jack as the complement player when Roy is in PG mode.

So the SF problem is really more of one of “Who might we be willing to lose to improve the PG position?” rather than one of “How do we upgrade the SF position?”

Comparing stats, Outlaw out performs Childress in scoring per game, 13 vs 12, and both rebound the same at 5, and have the same assists at 1.5. Childress has better field goal percentage at 57 vs 43, but Outlaw shoots better from the 3 pt arc at 39.6 vs 36.7. Trading for Childress would be giving up our players for someone we already have.
Keep Outlaw and Webster. They are good together, good chemistry, team attitude. They are still developing. They both are important to the team and are improving. Focus on the PG and backup PF positions in the off season