Old, Young, and One-Sentence Fun
by Dave on May 28, 2008 9:25 PM PDT
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PrintIt was a barrel of fun doing the podcast yesterday with Gavin and Casey. (The link is one post below this one.) It’s amazing how a little back and forth can spur thoughts and analysis. In that spirit, I’d like to explore and clarify one of the things I said on the topic of the Travis Outlaw and #13 for Mike Miller trade. At some point in the conversation I observed that one of Miller’s drawbacks was his age. I doubted we’d be thrilled about trading young Mr. Outlaw and a first-rounder for a guy who was 28. It wouldn’t surprise me if this caused some folks to scratch their heads a little because…
A. 28 isn’t old, it’s right fat in the NBA prime. And…
B. I’ve said repeatedly that the Blazers should be interested in acquiring some veterans.
One might be forgiven for thinking, “Wait a minute! Are you suggesting that the age range for trades is that limited? Should we only look to acquire players between the ages of 25 and 26? You’re off in Loopytown, Blogger Boy.”
Indeed that is correct. I am off in Loopytown, as any reasonably long-term reader could tell you. Nevertheless that is not what I’m suggesting. The age argument is more nuanced than a simple choice between older and younger.
The Blazers do need veterans. Mike Miller is a skilled, athletic veteran and would be a great asset to this team. Nevertheless he is too old to be in the sweet spot of our wheelhouse. Why? Because of his position. Miller is a small forward. Most NBA small forwards have a pretty simple job description: 1. Jump out of the gym. 2. Score like crazy. Indeed Miller’s primary value is offensive and his surprising athleticism is second only to his sweet stroke in his admittedly impressive toolkit. But athleticism is the first thing to fade with age. I’m not suggesting Miller won’t be in the league when he’s 31. I am suggesting he won’t be quite the same Mike Miller when he’s 31. Unless you believe he is the piece that accelerates us into championship mode immediately, that means our window even with him at small forward still opens 3-4 years down the road. You’d love what the 28-year-old Miller did for this team now, but would you take the 31-32-year-old Miller as a starter on your championship team? What’s more, would you prefer him making the run with you for the half-decade beyond or would you prefer the then 26-27-year-old Travis Outlaw? Given the requirements of the position, I’d pick the latter, especially when you consider we’d also be losing a mid-range rookie pick in the deal.
On the other hand, last week I said it might be worth taking a look at Kirk Hinrich. Hinrich is 27 years old, only 11 months younger than Miller. I’m not being inconsistent. It’s not the 11 months that makes the difference, it’s the position. Good point guards generally age well. Their job description lends itself more to veteran status. If you think Hinrich is a helpful asset (and I’m not necessarily saying I’d want him, but if you did) you could be reasonably comfortable with the 30-year old Hinrich as well. You wouldn’t necessarily toss out the 35-year-old version in the thick of a championship battle either.
The point of all of this is simple: The Blazers don’t just need veterans, they need the right veterans at the right positions. It’s not just a matter of glomming a couple of guys in their prime onto the roster. Especially if you’re looking at adding starters you don’t want those guys to come back and bite you later by expiring before you’re through with them. Because of cap restrictions and mediocre draft rank it’s going to be much harder for the Blazers to acquire talent on a grand scale four years from now than it is today with a lottery pick and a ton of young, cheap, talented players on hand. Ideally whatever pieces we add shouldn’t just be more experienced, they should be more experienced yet capable well into the future. Hinrich would have a good chance of fulfilling that condition compared to some of the talent or contracts we’d have to trade to get him. Miller not so much.
This brings up an even larger philosophical point: this business makes sense--maybe even sometimes what you’d call common sense--but that sense isn’t always as simple as it seems. We’re tempted to reduce the issue to one sentence: “We need veteran help.” It’s not quite that easy, as not every veteran helps.
In that spirit, the discussion item I’m throwing out today is this: We can think of a hundred one-sentence truisms spouted by armchair GM’s about prospering in this league. We’ve all uttered some ourselves. I’d argue that 99% of those one-sentence truisms are going to fall apart under the relative complexity of actually negotiating the environment. Which ones belong to that other 1%? Name me a one-sentence statement--one you’ve heard or even one you’ve invented--that accurately describes a truth about the NBA. No complex, compound sentences with six clauses containing built-in exceptions either. Just give us a short, sweet statement under a dozen words or so describing an almost-always-accurate truth about the league…something we can rely on year in and year out. You can make it Blazer-specific or league-wide, whichever you choose.
Have fun!
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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david stern will always love big market teams
i.e. MORE MONEY
I used to play sports, then I realized you can buy trophies, now I'm good at everything, even checkers - Demetri Martin
A classic from the Schonz
“You’ve got to make your free throws”
my first thought as well
well done
"Honor Terry Porter." Email me with your TP stories and memories.
by Ben Golliver on May 29, 2008 8:08 AM PDT up reply actions
is that...
when the blazers went 0/0 from the line, and he said, “this just reinforces, you’ve got to make your free throws”
?
by 50backflips on May 29, 2008 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions
I've said it before
“The draft is a crapshoot.”
"As far as having a chip on our shoulder - we all have that." Martell Webster, May 15, 2008.
At least craps has the best odds of any game in the house.
They still favor the house slightly, but it’s more fun than roulette.
One of Two Official Blazer's Edge Poets Laureate for the 2008-2009 Season
"Scholars have long known that fishing eventually turns men into philosophers. Unfortunately, it is almost impossible to buy decent tackle on a philosopher's salary." - Patrick McManus
Uh, blackjack
I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich
Ultimate truth:
Winning is everything
by Croatian_Sensation on May 28, 2008 9:40 PM PDT reply actions
blazers
hard work beats talent when talent fails to work hard
by blackandwite323 on May 28, 2008 9:41 PM PDT reply actions
Best one so far
Current team + Greg + Rudy = Blazers losing narrowly to the Spurs in the 2008-2009 Western Conference Finals. Book it.
Sorry if this is OT
But I really agree with the Hinrich idea. I’ve said so before, but I really don’t think he’s over-paid. Look at the other great defensive point guards in the league (look closely, since there are very very few of them). If we could score Hinrich, I think that’d be the clincher on a long championship run.
The real question regarding him is not his play, not his pay, but his way. If he brings the losing and depression that clouded Chicago the Blazers, I’d rather have Raef Lafrentz at PG, but if the change of scenery reinvigorates Hinrich, Captain Kirk could be great for us.
Good point
a very big if, but i believe that if we do get Hinrich, Brandon and Lamarcus and Greg and Nate will make sure he has the right attitude. I mean, come on, who doesn’t want to play for the Trailblazers right now?
18 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, 0 turnovers, 80% FG, 66% 3PT FG. Can my boy get some love?
Worry Not
It just happens, kind of the flavor of the week. It will be someone else soon enough.
Surprisingly, most nuns can take a punch.
The one truism in all sports
“Defense wins Championships”
Just ask the Suns, Yankees, Penguins, Patriots, Memphis Tigers, and so on…
by Stumptown Doug on May 28, 2008 10:04 PM PDT reply actions
This would be mine as well.
Nothing is truer for me than defense wins championships.
Perfect practice makes perfect.
The “Missing Veteran Leadership” component is acquired cheaply, if past its prime.
(Derek Harper, Mario Elie, Robert Horry, Bob McAdoo, Oscar Robertson, Mychal Thompson, Clyde Drexler, etc. etc. etc.)
MLB2PDX!!! (someday...)
by The Cactus Leaguer on May 28, 2008 10:33 PM PDT reply actions
Amendment
What I wanted to say (but went over the 12 word limit) is that it CAN BE acquired cheaply, if past its prime. That’s why I thought the Shaq and JKidd deals were terrible, because both teams overpaid for players past their prime (although with Shaq, at least you sold a lot of jerseys, and Marion was gone in a year anyway).
MLB2PDX!!! (someday...)
by The Cactus Leaguer on May 28, 2008 11:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Who lives by the jumpshot
dies by the jumpshot.
"If OJ Mayo falls to the 2nd round We should risk one of our 3 second round picks on Mayo". Mortimer.
How about
Brandon and Greg and Lamarcus will lead us to the Promised Land. YES, 12 exactly!
18 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, 0 turnovers, 80% FG, 66% 3PT FG. Can my boy get some love?
So happy no one posted this yet
My personal favorite truism:
“Whoever scores more is going to win.”
Or its variants:
“You gotta score more points than the other team to win.”
“The team with the most points wins.”
etc, etc, etc
This was mine as well
Outscore the opponent in 2 of every 3 games.
Aldridge said. "We feel like we can beat any team. We feel like we can beat the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, whoever any night right now, and we'll still be here when those teams get old and their guys retire. We're going to be here for a long time."
waiiiiit
even better than my 4 words, 3 letters…. memorable, and says it all…
C.T.C
Ati toi, fumier de lapin...
I've always heard it as "You can't coach height."
You seem a little hallucinated with these comparisons.
The Blazers are the Best Team in the History of the Universe
Truer words have never been spoken.
I was gonna say what PoliSam said—Whoever scores more wins the game. Cuz it’s TRUE if ya think about it!
Here’s some off the top of my head:
-It is better to be better than the other team, than it is to be worse.
-Only one team can win the Championship, unless there is a tie of some sort.
-Undersized SGs who are forced to play PG suck real bad.
-Being the team with the most offensive rebounds means you are the team that misses the most shots.
-The Lakers suck worse than anything that has sucked ever in the history of the universe
(even worse than Sucktron-7 from the sucky gas planet of Suctionsylvania-2000).
-Awesome dunks should be awarded 5 points instead of just two.
-Getting younger isn’t bad if you are getting the right young player.
-Chris Sheridan is wrong about whatever he says.
Those are bad, but it was just off the top of my head. All are 100% true.
Mortimer
Just to add one more.
NBA Talent is better sent on the court than overweight construction workers.
Stating the obvious is so effective because no one else thinks to do that, obviously.
One of Two Official Blazer's Edge Poets Laureate for the 2008-2009 Season
"Scholars have long known that fishing eventually turns men into philosophers. Unfortunately, it is almost impossible to buy decent tackle on a philosopher's salary." - Patrick McManus
Only to keep you from getting a big head
with the recent wave of adulation you´ve been enjoying will I point out that grabbing the most offensive rebounds does not necessarily mean you are the team that misses the most shots. The Blazers miss 40 shots and gets 20 offensive rebounds. Huzzah! The other team misses 45 shots and gets only 10 offensive boards, because they´re terrified to venture into the paint against Oden and have to scurry back on defense like little scurrying mice to keep us from leaking out and throwing down five-point dunks every possession. Until JScot decrees otherwise, 20>10, but 40
by BlazersOrBust on May 29, 2008 7:25 AM PDT up reply actions
Oh fine
You MIGHT be right. I just remember us last year, with Z-Bo, that we were one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league. Yippee, we’re the best! It only meant we couldn’t shoot and had more offensive rebounds to get.
Now my bright shining star will come back to earth, and instead of Kevin Pritchard I’ll be compared to a mixture of the lesser qualities of Ruben and Steve Patterson :-(
It was only a matter of time before someone pointed out Mortimer wears no Blazer clothes :( :(
Mortimer!
"I’ll be compared to a mixture of the lesser qualities of Ruben and Steve Patterson :-("?
What? Trade your nanny for Wesley Person?
"Be wary of strong drink. It can make you shoot at tax collectors... and miss" Robert A. Heinlein
by 92wastheyear on May 29, 2008 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions
20 is not better than 10
in golf. Scots like golf.
Other people don't have as much practice at being wrong as I do -- HT, timbo
When you listen someone´s opinion about sport
your brain starts to work to give a new point of view. Until you realize that it was your own voice. ;-)
"If OJ Mayo falls to the 2nd round We should risk one of our 3 second round picks on Mayo". Mortimer.
I overheard Eva Longoria
say the same thing about Tony P. as Dave did about M. Miller: “His surprising athleticism is second only to his sweet stroke in his admittedly impressive toolkit”.
Hey, don’t blame me, I didn’t say it. That’s what she said
My truism:
the team that got the player with the bigger name in a trade got the better deal.
Unless your name is the Knicks, Mavs, or Suns.
Current team + Greg + Rudy = Blazers losing narrowly to the Spurs in the 2008-2009 Western Conference Finals. Book it.
Oh Hell yeah
I definitely second that, along with everyone on that Eastern Conference coverage team except Mike Wilbon(sp?) VanGundy and Mark Jackson should be fired for being idiots.
Shut. The. Hell. Up.
And I’m usually a nice guy, these guys are just so annoying.
It must be an East coast thing.
Actually it is ESPN
that needs to be fired – revamped from the top down to create value.
Aldridge said. "We feel like we can beat any team. We feel like we can beat the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, whoever any night right now, and we'll still be here when those teams get old and their guys retire. We're going to be here for a long time."
Universal untruth - and we'll prove it
Nice guys finish last.
Or 7th or whatever the actual quote is.
"As far as having a chip on our shoulder - we all have that." Martell Webster, May 15, 2008.
Rasheed had some interesting thoughts last night.....
Bleep cats flopping bleeeeep bull bleep bleep cats calls bleeeep.
Sorry Dave, I couldn’t resist
2-4 the who
Basketball is a business.
This is the core truth. All else flows from it.
Wherever you go, there you are.
Steve Nash
Is the most unathletic player in the league.
If it fills a need, if it fills a rebuilding situation. And my goal is to fill and rebuild and I am not going to be shortsighted.
- Isiah Thomas
That's absurd.
Athleticism means more than just jumping high. He’s got an excellent motor, incredible reflexes, amazing open court speed, great first step, pretty much everything except for leaping ability.
by howlingfantods on May 29, 2008 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions
It is absurd
It is one of Bill Walton’s favorite things to say, so I thought I’d mention it.
"My, that is a handsome fella. He must be the offspring of a Greek God!" - Bill Walton calling a Clipper's-Laker's game as Luke Walton checks in.
Seen that commercial where he soccer kicks the basketball into the hoop?
That’s athletic. There’s more to it than jumping high, as howlingfantods says.
You seem a little hallucinated with these comparisons.
HERE'S A FEW FOR YA...
1. The game is won and lost in the paint.
2. “You don’t win by the jumpshot, you die by the jumpshot.”—Chuck
3. Great rebounders have to WANT to be great rebounders.
t
"You don't live by the jumpshot, you die by the jumpshot." ---Charles Barkley, 2/7/08
by timbo on May 29, 2008 8:41 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Correct Chuck quote in my footer. Duh.
"You don't live by the jumpshot, you die by the jumpshot." ---Charles Barkley, 2/7/08
Smooth.
Current team + Greg + Rudy = Blazers losing narrowly to the Spurs in the 2008-2009 Western Conference Finals. Book it.
by prezofdeath on May 29, 2008 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions
When you slice things this fine
you spend all your time looking for the holy grail of the perfect role players, and there’s really no such thing.
Look at the spurs - their spare parts aren’t perfect, but they’re good and they bring something to the table to help support their three stars. Not every night, but often enough so that one of some combo of Oberto, Bowen, Kurt Thomas, Udoka, Barry, Horry or Finley is doing something that eases the pressure on their stars - playing tough defense or digging out boards or hitting their open corner threes.
And these parts aren’t perfect, which is why they cycle through them so often. Nazr Mohammed, Beno Udrih, Nick Van Exel, and Rasho Nesterovic were supporting cast playing 18 minutes + just two seasons ago. A few years before that, it was Stephen Jackson, Malik Rose, Steve Smith, and Steve Kerr. Things change fast in the NBA.
All that is to say, don’t get too bent out of shape about making sure that the role players we get are the exact correct age, and don’t get too attached to our role players. The only constants for the next 6 years is going to be Roy, Oden, LMA, and I’m not even totally planning to get too attached to LMA.
For the record, I like Mike Miller—nice player, good guy to have on your team. Not really the kind of “veteran leadership” I’m looking for. I don’t think you’re a “veteran leader” in this league unless you’ve been a prominent starter deep in the playoffs. I wouldn’t have made this trade either, unless I was looking to move Miller for another trade after this one.
Dave really doesn’t sound as geeky as I’d expected. I don’t know if I’m relieved or feel let down about that.
by Jarrett Jack's Booty on May 29, 2008 9:16 AM PDT reply actions
His voice sounds geeky but his words are wise.
You seem a little hallucinated with these comparisons.
I thought he'd be louder and funnier.
He almost sounded like an analyst or something.
Current team + Greg + Rudy = Blazers losing narrowly to the Spurs in the 2008-2009 Western Conference Finals. Book it.
by prezofdeath on May 29, 2008 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions
The grass is always greener on the other side of the fence
Our roster looks pretty darn good the way it is…
....okay..and more..
How about “You’ve got to make your free throws.” ? That’s a good one.
Beyond that, I agree with what Dave is saying about age and “playing style”, some players games age better than others. I disagree with the contention that PG’s generally age better than SF’s, I think it all depends on the genetics of the individual and the physical style of play they reflect and even perhaps how dedicated an athlete they are outside of the season. So I have to look at longterm viability on a person by person basis. I remember players like Kevin Johnson and Rod Strickland, both had excellent games, Kevin Johnson remains one of my favorite Non-Blazer players, but the style of play he executed for himself, the fearless kamikazi drives to the middle, the all or nothing dunks over Hakeem could you imagine that game aging well? I think you can generally say PG, SF, SG are often the higher paced positions, but how a player is going to age at any given position might have a lot to do with DNA, Genetics of the individual and how much their game relies on physicality vs. knowledge. Kareem played forever and always kept a good level of affectiveness on the court, but as he aged he relied more on set moves and his years of basketball knowledge to keep him on the court. Unfortunately for fans, the fearless dunks and bold play of the “little” Kevin Johnson made his career significantly shorter.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
thats an excellent one
the truth speaks volumes
If you dont talk to your cats about catnip, who will?
submission and a vote
I’m not sure if my submission counts because it’s somebody’s ID… but… here it is: Sabonis4Ever
so i’ll put in my vote for:
majikj0n – Basketball is a business.
Here's a short list
One game at a time.
The playoffs are a whole ‘nother animal.
We’re talkin’ ‘bout practice!
R-i-i-i-i-p-p CITY!
Refs don’t call fouls in the last seconds of a tight game.
The coach is always the first to go.
Throw it DOWN, big man!
West is best, East is least.
The NBA season is too long.
NBA fans to lottery teams in March and April: No tanks.
It’s the culture.
Move your feet and keep your arms up on defense.
Better a Blazer in the lottery than a Laker in the finals.
You seem a little hallucinated with these comparisons.
Most of those are good
but the NBA season is too long? I don’t think so.
"My, that is a handsome fella. He must be the offspring of a Greek God!" - Bill Walton calling a Clipper's-Laker's game as Luke Walton checks in.
I prefer quality over quantity.
And I have a short attention span.
You seem a little hallucinated with these comparisons.
by MiledAnimal on May 29, 2008 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions
“You can’t coach speed.” – I forget who said this.
I would add -
"You can't coach desire."“The NBA Playoffs—Where over-priced crybabies happen.”
“You only need to lead in one statistical category to win.”
“Refs can decide games well before the 4th quarter.”
“It now takes 4 steps to be called a travel.”
“Dunking should be 1 point. Half-court or more? Worth 4.”
by Heizer on May 29, 2008 11:09 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
"Where over-priced crybabies happen."
Priceless.
Current team + Greg + Rudy = Blazers losing narrowly to the Spurs in the 2008-2009 Western Conference Finals. Book it.
by prezofdeath on May 29, 2008 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions
A small market team needs to be 10 points better than a large market team
(re: playoff road games, otherwise the “corporate” refs will come into play)
knight-ly
If the NBA were on channel 5 and a bunch of frogs making love were on channel 4, I’d watch the frogs, even if they were coming in fuzzy.
—Bobby Knight
Irony
“If all I’m remembered for is being a good basketball player, then I’ve done a bad job with the rest of my life.” – Isiah Thomas
The best dishes require patience and simmering to meld the flavors together
Aldridge said. "We feel like we can beat any team. We feel like we can beat the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, whoever any night right now, and we'll still be here when those teams get old and their guys retire. We're going to be here for a long time."
Oh yeah, Snappers
Has anyone said, “Ball movement and player movement?”
Surprisingly, most nuns can take a punch.
"Its not about the name on the back of your jersey...
but about the name on the front of your jersey”....(spoken in a deep, stupid voice belonging only to Kevin Garnett)
I saw that on a shirt this weekend.
And i thought, huh? It’s all about adidas? I’m a little slow, I guess.
Oh I got another one
It’s a dog eat dog world and I’m the lawn mower.
Surprisingly, most nuns can take a punch.
by tominhawaii on May 29, 2008 6:16 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Make like a tree
and get out of here
"Be wary of strong drink. It can make you shoot at tax collectors... and miss" Robert A. Heinlein
by 92wastheyear on May 29, 2008 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions
hope I dont repeat anybody- only warning
Bad calls are a part of the game
If you dont talk to your cats about catnip, who will?
universal truth according to David Stern
Fans want to see a Celtic vs Lakers Finals
If you dont talk to your cats about catnip, who will?
here,s one
Players knowing where to be on the floor
Well-worn truisms...
“It’s not the size of the dog in the fight – it’s the size of the fight in the dog.”
“Losing stinks!”
“Good offense starts with good defense”
G.O. Knows
yes a ripoff of the BoJackson Nike commercials, but it works
Regular season - playoffs
Heart and hustle wins in the regular season,
talent and experience wins in the playoffs.
"I'm a buffet of goodness."
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