This year's sleepers

someone who performs much better than expected, or simply should have been drafted higher than he was. Too hard to look at rotations and what not, I think, because a good rookie on a really good team may not see the floor, but a so-so rookie on a bad team will get lots of PT.

Anyway, in order of sleeperness:

1. Joe Alexander. I think teams will wish they had taken him top-10.
2. Brandon Rush. Does lots of things well, though nothing great. Shades of Brandon Roy without the ball/finishing skills.
3. Mario Chalmers. Lights out shooter, tough defender. And he’s from my hometown to boot.
4. Courtney Lee. Great player on a mid-major, will get looked over.
5. Robin Lopez. Not as polished as his brother, but there simply aren’t very many big men who are this mobile. Shades of Varejao. Plays much tougher than Hibbert, but without the finesse.
6. Jamont Gordon. Just a big, tough PG. Needs to improve shooting, but can play D and handle the rock. Could be a solid backup PG.

CDR is going to make everyone look foolish. I hope he ends up on the Pistons so they can get another title and wear those WWF belts to every home game again. Or not.

Weaver played incredible defense on every NBA prospect guard in the Pac-10. Whether or not he scores at the next level is irrelevant, he will contribute.

Hibbert? I know everyone’s sick of people saying how old Oden looks, but at least Oden plays young. Hibbert plays old. Real old. Dude looks like he’s been suffering from arthritis for two decades already. Hopefully his agent has a drawer full of aleve.

Consider the 90-92 squads: Only Buck Williams (#3, 1981) was a top ten pick.

Drexler went #14.
Porter went #24.
Duck, Kersey, Ainge, and Cliffy were all second rounders. (Duck was drafted by SA, Ainge by Boston)
Drazen Petrovic was a third-rounder, as was Michal Holton (drafted by Golden State).

Now compare that to the current squad, where we have Oden (#1), LMA (#2), Webster (#6), Roy (#6), and Blake (2nd round, Wizards). Off the bench is Frye (#9, Knicks), Prz (#9, Houston), Raef (#3!, Denver), Outlaw (#23), Jack (#22), Jones (2nd round, Pacers), and Sergio (#27). Possibly add in a 13th pick this year.

with that, here is the official list.

Kosta Koufos (if picked in 20s): No one is talking about him, but a Okur clone who may have a higher upside. Could be convinced to play major minutes in Greece instead of a bench role in the NBA. Has worked hard on his game.

JaVale McGee (if not in lotto): Big man who actually likes playing basketball and has worked hard getting ready for the draft. Knock is he’s raw and doesn’t have a back to the basket game. His mom played in the WNBA and his dad was drafted in the second round by the Portland Trail Blazers (never played a game though). His mom stressed learning the game from the outside in and that may account for his lack of back to basket skills.

Lester Hudson (if he falls to the 2nd round): A lot like Rodney Stuckey, but maybe a JJ with a better shot and longer arms. Not a true point but a great scorer, still he played in a weak division and is 24.

Nicolas Batum (If in 20s): Great role player in Europe with skills to transfer that to the NBA. Should be dominating but doesn’t. Still, some people complain that prospects chuck up too many shots up to get noticed, when they should be training for becoming a role player in the NBA. Hence, his role player status is fine with me.

DJ White (2nd round): Not greatest upside by is Millsap like.

James Gist, and, if he ends up with Utah, Roy Hibbert. I wouldn’t mind Portland taking any of them, except Hibbert, because I don’t think they need him and the whole “Portland is such a soft team” is really annoying.

Best player in the second round.

Pritchard’s comment about adding quickness and shooting got me thinking. If there is a trade involving Webster, an additional shooter would need to be added. I don’t know how high Foster will go in the draft (could go as high as #20). But as far as I can tell, he’s the best shooter coming out.

If anyone knows of a better 3pt shooter, please tell me. With Oden and LMA down low and Roy spreading the floor, the Blazers can’t have too many shooters.

The quickness part of Pritchard’s quote would seem to me to be directed at the PG situation. This is one reason that I think Mike Barrett and the “Add only Oden and Rudy” crowd is wrong. With no moves, Rudy would have a LOT of pressure to be the answer. I think that he is part of the answer, not the end all, beat all.

Maybe I have my Duck Fan Blinders on or it’s the sort of athletic white guy tweener thing.

Luke Jackson has had injuries, but the NBA just hasn’t worked well with him.

Courtney Lee is my sleeper pick, but as a reserve who plays a lot or a starter for certain teams. He could be perfect for New Orleans.

On a side note, I recently saw Luke at Jameson’s in Eugene (about a week ago) for a late night drink.

I generally keep up with ESPN Insider Draft profiles, rankings etc. Also read draftexpress.com, nbadraft.net, and mynbadraft.com. I hadn’t seen Joe Alexander anywhere near the first round by any scouts until the tourney this year. I read a story by Chad Ford months ago about being weary of those upper-classmen whose play in the Tourney brings their prospect status up to First Rounder caliber.

Joe Alexander is getting a lot of buzz. So did Adam Morrison… but who I remeber most in this scenario is Chicago drafting Marcus Fizer. What a stud in the tourney, total bust in the pros. Who is your most notorious Zero to Hero tourney rising star that was a bust after being the buzz on draft day?