FanPost

Predictably Irrational : As it relates to us

Has anyone ever read the book "Predictably Irrational" by Dan Ariely?  He's an MIT professor who looks at why people make the decisions they do.  Here's a link:

http://www.predictablyirrational.com/

Anyways, he has a chapter about how people tend to way overvalue what they believe is "theirs."  He conducts an experiment after a Duke Bball ticket lottery.  He asks people who lost what they would pay to get a ticket.  The average was around $175 because they were thinking that, although the game would be fun, they could get a lot of other stuff for $200.  Because they didn't own the tickets, they had formed no attachment to them, and all other potential possessions held as much value.

On the other hand, he asked people who had won tickets in the lottery what it would take to sell them.  The average was around $2,500 because people felt the tickets were "theirs," and started to value them more.  The point was the difference between what people would give up and what people would have to give up was huge.

Dave touched on this when he talked about how we are never no way no how ever getting Chris Paul.  How many times have we read that "Jack + Trout + 13" could net us Rose?  Yet if you look at it objectively, there is no way that would happen.  Would you take two bench players and a low lottery pick for a potential Hall-of-Famer? 

This is why so few trades actually ever happen.  And a superstar getting traded is usually an act of desperation where one team gets completely screwed (See: Minnesota, Memphis, Phoenix, Dallas etc...). 

This doesn't mean that a deal can't get done.  Just that what we have isn't nearly as valuable as we think it is.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Blazer's Edge

You must be a member of Blazer's Edge to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Blazer's Edge. You should read them.

Join Blazer's Edge

You must be a member of Blazer's Edge to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Blazer's Edge. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker