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Predictably Irrational : As it relates to us

Has anyone ever read the book "Predictably Irrational" by Dan Ariely?  He's an MIT professor who looks at why people make the decisions they do.  Here's a link:

http://www.predictablyirrational.com/

Anyways, he has a chapter about how people tend to way overvalue what they believe is "theirs."  He conducts an experiment after a Duke Bball ticket lottery.  He asks people who lost what they would pay to get a ticket.  The average was around $175 because they were thinking that, although the game would be fun, they could get a lot of other stuff for $200.  Because they didn't own the tickets, they had formed no attachment to them, and all other potential possessions held as much value.

On the other hand, he asked people who had won tickets in the lottery what it would take to sell them.  The average was around $2,500 because people felt the tickets were "theirs," and started to value them more.  The point was the difference between what people would give up and what people would have to give up was huge.

Dave touched on this when he talked about how we are never no way no how ever getting Chris Paul.  How many times have we read that "Jack + Trout + 13" could net us Rose?  Yet if you look at it objectively, there is no way that would happen.  Would you take two bench players and a low lottery pick for a potential Hall-of-Famer? 

This is why so few trades actually ever happen.  And a superstar getting traded is usually an act of desperation where one team gets completely screwed (See: Minnesota, Memphis, Phoenix, Dallas etc...). 

This doesn't mean that a deal can't get done.  Just that what we have isn't nearly as valuable as we think it is.

2 recs | Comment 18 comments

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Let me get this straight.

My lump of crap is worth more than your pile of gold? Sweet. Time to hit the stock market.

"I never worried if there would be an earthquake or something in Oregon, but now I can do." amlmart1

by Sabonis4Ever on May 19, 2008 10:46 PM PDT   0 recs

Sure

But I’m not convinced that this sort of behavior is necessarily irrational. Folks have fantasy discussions such as ‘would you trade Roy for Paul’. And my answer is: never. Why is this? Because even if Paul were objectively, measurably better than Roy (which he may be, although that is debatable), I am emotionally invested in this team. I want to watch THIS team win: lead by Roy, Oden, Aldridge. There simply is nobody in the NBA that I would trade any of these three guys for, period. And I’m serious about that—nobody. Call it irrational, but I just call it optimizing a different function than the folks that would trade one of them for Dwight Howard or LeBron. I just don’t want that team, I want this one. Which is good, because it’s the one we got. Does this mean I’m overvaluing them? Well, depends on how the value is calculated.

Now, ask me how I feel about the rest of the club, and sure I’m happy to do some wheeling and dealing—we have too many young players, not enough playing time to go around. Several quality players must go to even make time for Rudy and Greg, and that’s the NBA. But (with a couple of exceptions) I would just as soon sit tight with what we’ve got, which I’m enjoying a lot.

by BrailleTaser on May 19, 2008 11:11 PM PDT   0 recs

Umm..

Making decisions based strictly on emotions is practically the definition of irrational.

by wepto on May 19, 2008 11:56 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Not

the definition is more along the lines of: ‘not supported by reason’. One can include emotions in the discussion and still reason and make sound decisions. I’m just saying I’d choose to stick with these guys even if they never win a championship. Does that mean that I’m irrational in this respect? Not at all, I just value winning the championship (slightly) less than watching this particular core develop. I believe that they’ll be winners, but even if they fall short (like the great Drexler teams) it will be worth it, no regrets.

by BrailleTaser on May 20, 2008 9:42 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Okay, I guess I'm making a fundamental assumption

That we would rather win a championship with different guys than not win one with these guys.

Under those circumstances, you’d be a fool not to trade Roy for Paul if NO was offering.

by AndrewD on May 20, 2008 12:00 AM PDT   0 recs

I think emotional attachment is being undervalued.

A toddler would much rather have the toy that has crusty oatmeal on it, has been dragged through the dirt and is missing an eye than a new one. The old fishing vest that no longer quite fits, smells a little funny and has a tear in it is worn fishing instead of the brand new one that his wife bought and put in the closet for him. It costs more to keep oil in the old dented up car than it does to make payments on a new one.

The constant between these three is love. The child has invested a lot of love into the teddy bear and does not want to let it go. The fisherman’s vest was given to him by his grandfather who taught him how to fish right before he passed away. The car owner’s son was born in the back of that car on the way to the hospital. What looks like absolute junk to everyone else means the world to the person who has it. Many today call that crass sentimentalism. But sentimentalism is hardly crass, because when an object reminds us of the love we’ve given, it makes us all the more willing to love others as well. And that is worth more than money.

Ariely’s example is flawed, because winning a lottery creates a large emotional attachment to an item that is worth more than money. Each time the owner looks at the tickets, the excitement of winning comes back again and again. Each game they attend they hold special, because they easily might not have made it. The reason that the price goes so high is that it would take that much money offered to sufficiently replace the emotional high of the event. I know someone offering me $2,500 would make me pretty excited.

It’s much more than simply being theirs. The emotions that go with it are quantifiable with other emotional experiences. The problem is that emotional response varies from person to person. One man’s excitement is another man’s yawn-fest. It is only in this way that emotions defy quantification, because everyone places a different value on them. I’m guessing Ariely placed a different value on winning Duke ticket than did the ones who won them. And since emotion is not reasonably quantifiable, it is often derogatorily deemed irrational.

These examples are with mere objects, but it is equally applicable to people as well. We don’t want just any child, we want our child, because we love them. To a much lesser degree, we do the same things with our sports teams. They are a collection of people whom we love. The more we watch them and allow ourselves to get emotionally attached to them, the more we value them. For me, I would rather watch our group of guys play well and not quite make it than watch another group of guys make it all the way. Some people are more emotionally invested in the trophy itself than who gets it.

But I think the vast majority of fans care who is on the floor. Using myself as example again, I was far more emotionally attached to the 89-93 team than any of the others until today. Who we had mattered to me. The JR Riders and Bonzi Wellses really turned me off from the team. I nearly missed the 2000 run because of who was playing. What Ariely, and I read you advocating is exactly what Bob Whitsett brought to this team. Win, because that we can objectively quantify, and everything else doesn’t matter. That is certainly an approach one can take, and it is valid. But it’s the kind of approach I can’t get excited about.

So do we place more value on Jack and Outlaw than other teams do? Heck yeah! Because we have spent the last few seasons pouring our love and affection on them through our cheering. That they are good, quality, stand-up guys makes it far easier to do that. The only way we want them replaced is if we get someone who fills the emotions like they do. That is why Travis, Jack and the #13 for Rose is acceptable to many. The excitement in getting Rose balances the emotional loss of losing those players. But trading that same group for Andre Miller leaves us cold. Any equation of humanity that leaves out the emotional aspects is only capable of calculating half of the human experience.

One of Two Official Blazer's Edge Poets Laureate for the 2008-2009 Season

"Scholars have long known that fishing eventually turns men into philosophers. Unfortunately, it is almost impossible to buy decent tackle on a philosopher's salary." - Patrick McManus

by T Darkstar on May 20, 2008 5:24 AM PDT   0 recs

Absolutley agree.

Emotions are the substance of which human´s life is made of. Time is unsubstantial.

It never rains for everibody´s pleasure.

by amlmart1 on May 20, 2008 8:20 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Our resident philosopher, not to mention poet laureate. You expressed this very well.

I wish I could put stuff in to words that way. I’d just like to add that, because they are so young, this bunch evokes the same sort of feelings that you might have towards a group of kids you watch grow up. You care about them as people and want them to succeed. It goes beyond wanting your team to win because it makes you happy. You also want them to win because it makes you happy that they succeeded in what they were trying to achieve as individuals and as a team.

"We comin along." Travis Outlaw

by annthefan on May 20, 2008 4:28 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

T

You tha MAN!!
41&41 team, insert #1 draft pick and euro mvp =_ (a) championship contender
(b) championship team
(c) a decade w/o a lottery pick
(d) dynasty
(e) all of the above

What did Oden say to the stork?. "Admit that you have got lost". amlmart

by ptwnblzr on May 22, 2008 3:03 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Wow

I don’t know which is crazier—-that you wrote that or that I actually read all of it.
Good points. Although bear in mind people must see something in Jack and Outlaw, as both received 6th man of the year awards. And the 13th pick is a place where you can get a starter. So that’s three startable players for most Eastern teams, and some solid role players for Western teams.

Thanks PA, KP, Nate, BRoy, LMA, GO, 'Tell, Trout, JJ's, Buffet, Blake (not Blakey), Thrilla Hundred-dolla Billa, McBob (just 'cuz you're cool), Sergio (just 'cuz you've got flash), and Raef (ummm...just 'cuz)....and Dean Demo, Maurice, Monty (You rock Monty!), Bill Bayno (good luck with your new job), Bobby, Jay, and everyone else I'm forgetting (scouts, other front office people) who made the Return of Rip City possible, including the media (Mike B., Casey, Dave, Ben). And tominhawaii. Can't forget him.

by prezofdeath on May 20, 2008 6:53 AM PDT   0 recs

Correction

Sixth man of the year votes

Thanks PA, KP, Nate, BRoy, LMA, GO, 'Tell, Trout, JJ's, Buffet, Blake (not Blakey), Thrilla Hundred-dolla Billa, McBob (just 'cuz you're cool), Sergio (just 'cuz you've got flash), and Raef (ummm...just 'cuz)....and Dean Demo, Maurice, Monty (You rock Monty!), Bill Bayno (good luck with your new job), Bobby, Jay, and everyone else I'm forgetting (scouts, other front office people) who made the Return of Rip City possible, including the media (Mike B., Casey, Dave, Ben). And tominhawaii. Can't forget him.

by prezofdeath on May 20, 2008 6:53 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

When human beings are involved...

I would have to say this (ir)rationale most likely goes even further in the case of our sports teams because human beings are involved. We’re not just talking about Roy as if he were a ticket to a fun event (although metaphorically he may be); rather, he’s a human being whose personality suits us as much as his abilities. This is why Roy, Aldridge, Oden, etc. may never, in our minds, be worth trading. That’s even what makes it difficult for me to advocate trading Jack, because, for all his apparent deficiencies, I really LIKE the guy.

Ultimately I still end up advocating a trade of Jack because the overall TEAM is made up of a lot of human beings I feel attached to. My greater concern becomes the health of the whole, even at the cost of one. Still, odds are my perceived value for Jack is higher than what another fan for a different team feels.

Nice post. I love the psychological stuff.

by ChrisB803 on May 20, 2008 6:57 AM PDT   0 recs

Irrationality is the norm among fans

but I hope that KP makes the best decisions for the team. That’s why he’s payed big money.
The other GMs can be irrational, I don’t mind. ( plenty of them are).

ps. I read the book and it is very interesting.

by Falcao on May 20, 2008 11:22 AM PDT   0 recs

Read Foucualt's "Madness and Civilization"

Rationality’s merely a concoction of specific interests. The poster above was dead on when devaluing rationality because any rationality is only a means to an end. The end is emotionally selected for good or for worse. The only time it’s worth talking about rationality is when a specific choice seems to go against the percieved goal. In those cases, though, you’ll generally find that we simply misunderstood the goal.

I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich

by hobobob on May 20, 2008 12:45 PM PDT   0 recs

Nice

You basically found scientific evidence to explain all the silly trade proposals you see on blogs. Science matters, even if you you don’t believe in it.

Hello, I am tominhawaii, think of me as the irritating tobacco ads of Blazer's Edge.

by tominhawaii on May 20, 2008 9:42 PM PDT   0 recs

I want to respond

...but I’m not sure what we’re being (ir)rational about.

by Gargen on May 20, 2008 11:22 PM PDT   0 recs

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