How Long?

is perhaps a wildly optimistic take, but I think we’ll make noise in the playoffs next year. We’re gonna win 52 games, Oden and Rudy should both be hitting their stride down the stretch after figuring out the NBA game for the first two-thirds of the season, and we’re gonna go into the playoffs with all cylinders pounding and striking fear into the heart of whatever team we’re matched up with in the first round.

I see no reason why we can’t be next year’s New Orleans. I won’t be disappointed if we’re not, but this team is something special, and another quantum leap ahead in 08-09 wouldn’t surprise me whatsoever.

“Omens and omen texts. “The most primitive, clumsy, but enduring method…is the simple recording of sequences of unusual or important events.” (1976:236) Chinese history offers scrupulously documented occurrences of strange births, the tracking of natural phenomena, and other data. Chinese governmental planning relied on this method of forecasting for long-range strategy. It is not unreasonable to assume that modern scientific inquiry began with this kind of divination; Joseph Needham’s work considered this very idea.” I think Dave´s Omen is scrupulously documented too.

In another Chinese reference, I fear our way would be the Chinese Long March.... Wait, that March only took two years, a short term for a NBA team to win the NBA Championship. But also two too long years for me. It´s gonna be hard times when we´ll loose in the two next playoffs.

.... I can’t help thinking we might be surprised next year.

By all accounts, Greg Oden is a difference maker. The sort of player that is so good that he wins games by himself. It’s possible he plays to the level of Lebron James’ rookie year (20 pts, 5.5 rebs, 6 ast). Then again, he’ll have more support, so his line might be more on par with Dwayne Wade’s rookie season (16, 4, 5) with considerably more rebounds and maybe an assist or two less. At worst, I expect him to match Dwight Howard’s initial season (12 & 10).

Then there is the effect his presence will have on the rest of the team. LaMarcus Aldridge should have a field day. He’s going to be seeing single man coverage most nights. Defenses won’t be able to isolate on Brandon Roy. Our jump shooters could have a half second more time to get set. Pryzbilla, Travis, Frye and Rudy could end up outmanning the bench of most teams every night. I think I’d take those 4 over the starters of a couple teams (the Knicks come to mind).

I’m not going to be disappointed if the Blazers only improved by 5 – 6 games in the standings next season or just miss the playoffs. I realize all of the things Dave mentions apply. But I can’t help thinking this team is looking at another 10 game improvement, possibly more and even a first round playoff series win. So yeah, I’m setting my expections high. I just won’t complain if they aren’t met.

...to add. I think You’re dead on with the potential time line and the rebuilding steps. Hopefully most fans can enjoy the process, it should be fun. The only thing I might add to the mix is that I think we probably will meet with some unexpected good fortune, as well as the inevitable unexpected setback. How we take advantage of the good and how we react to the unforeseen negative might change the story a little. One thing I really like about the franchise right now is the intelligence of management and the seeming commitment to talent, character and chemistry. Up, down or indifferent I feel The Blazers will continually work to improve the team and that makes supporting them all the easier. Sometimes you don’t see the 13 game winning streaks coming or the unexpected micro-fracture surgeries but knowing that we have an owner, GM and management that I think is dedicated and competent is a great foundation.

If luck has anything to do with it. Our front office is one of the best in the league.

I am looking forward to the Blazers competing for a playoff berth next season. But let’s be realistic.

Hornets (getting better with experience)
Lakers (getting better the more they play together)
Houston (assuming Yao and McGrady are both healthy - go Rick!)
San Antonio (still have another year or two)
Jazz (up and coming - need another piece to really improve)
Phoenix (still have a couple years left)
Mavericks (still too strong? or will Cuban blow them up?)
Warriors (whither art thou, Baron Davis?)
Nuggets (okay, this team should blow itself up)

So I admit it is possible we make the playoffs next season. But with Oden’s youth in his rookie season, with working Rudy into the mix (hopefully!!), and to fully resolve the question of whether we need to invest at the point or hand it to Roy, it may take a year to get things humming. I predict 48 wins and at most a first round exit to legitimate a title contender.

But look at the aging of the West! Making matters worse (better for Blazer fan!), both Phoenix and Dallas sold the future for the present, and they didn’t get to open any! The following year, it would surprise me if more than five Western Conference teams could out-compete us. I see 50+ wins and at least one playoff series win.

After that, sky’s the limit, Baby. Portland, N.O., and LALA Land.

As for the team leader and stud, I would be surprised if Oden takes that from Roy in the next two years. There is a reason Roy was a stand-out in the all-star game.

I agree with Dave. This team still has some holes and we don’t know which holes will be filled next year. The Blazers played progressively worst as the season wore on, there was a stretch of 20 games near the end of the season where our offense completely sputtered. Just because we beat the Lakers and Mavericks at home near the end, people are left with an optimistic feeling. We won a bunch of games in December from hot shooting and a gimmick zone. Once teams adjusted to us, we couldn’t adjust.

I think we will have a better record next year, but I rather see the team improve as the season wears on. What I imagine is a slow start as the team learns to play with Oden and Rudy. Then as the season progresses, the team progresses to become a real force to be reckon with.

That’s a lot to put on Greg Oden’s plate. Can his knees handle the weight of the franchise? Have you ever watched him walk?

I expect improvement next year, because everyone should be better, not because of Oden. I love Oden, he’s a swell guy, it is just that I haven’t seen him play basketball in over a year. Maybe he forgot how to dribble or dunk the ball. I can’t talk about winning championships until I see Oden on the court. Without Oden’s help, it doesn’t matter if the window is open, because no one can reach the sill to climb out.

This is actually my second post ever, though the first one with my new moniker. Very soon I hope to scan a picture of my two cats (who are no longer with me) for my icon. I’ve enjoyed lurking here, but it’s time to enter the fray.

Oh, and I’ve been a Blazers fan since the championship, when I lived in Niagara Falls. I’ve been in Eugene since 1978 except for 8 years when I lived in the East Bay and could get cheap, nearly front-row seats at Warriors games when Clyde, Jerome, and Terry came to town.

Now, let’s consider what Greg will bring next year. With Joel on the bench, interior defense and rebounding was weak. That will no longer be the case. Between Greg and Joel, we will be extremely solid in the paint. Solid enough that on average we should allow, say, 5 fewer points per game. The combination of improved and/or steadier shot blocking, shot changing, and defensive rebounding should make at least that great a difference.

On offense, it’s been said that Greg will need time to adjust to the NBA, and we shouldn’t expect much. But, think about all those passes that bounced off of Joel’s hands under the rim. With Greg in there, those passes translate to easy field goals and a parade of foul shots. Or, how about those times when it seemed that the other team had the basket surrounded, and we got only one shot during a possession. Shouldn’t happen anymore. On average, I think we’ll score on more possessions and get more second tries. Just taking advantage of the offensive opportunities that come to him naturally, Greg should make a big difference. Shall we say a difference of about 5 more points per game?

Taking into account improvements in both defense and offense, I think we may be looking at a point differential of around 10 points per game. There was only one team in the league this year with that large a margin, the Celtics. I think the Blazers can be that good.

Now consider that we may be adding a very skilled shooter/slasher named Rudy, and that many of our young players will continue to grow and improve. This year, our team showed they were capable of playing at a very high level, and I think only the Spurs and Celtics managed to escape being beaten at least once by the Blazers. Given the additions and improvements, we could see the Blazers winning at least 50 games and reaching the finals or going all the way next year. I believe that only major injuries, especially to Greg or Brandon, can prevent this team from ascending to greatness next season.

I´m going to post tomorrow about the reconstruction of our team by 2020. It´s hard to restart from zero after have won so many titles.