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Why we should draft a Center (and who?)

Most of the draft discussion has been around point guard with occasional mentions (good) of power forward and small forward but almost nothing about Centers. The conventional wisdom seems to be that we have Joel and Greg and we are already good there.

Here is the missing link: 12

Star-divide

Yes, twelve fouls between Greg and Joel and we are done. We need a physical shot-blocking, rebounding center who can come in and give 10-15 minutes when foul trouble sits the others. He can also provide relief minutes 2-5 minutes at a time against Shaq, who I still see as a force to be countered. I think we have all seen that LaMarcus and Channing need to play PF most of the time.

What stats are meaningful? To me, rebounds, blocks, ball handling, fouls and shooting % are all important for a reserve Center in that order. Shooting is more FT% than FG% (anyone this size can dunk on smaller players) because you want to use this center when ahead and still hurt the other team for intentionally fouling. Ball handling is both assists and turnovers. There is a wide disparity of A/TO in this draft. Personal fouls should be adjusted by 1.2 times to account for 6 fouls in NBA (4 fouls of 5 is 80% of limit so 80% of 6 is 4.8) since games with 5 fouls stop counting for these players in college or Euroleague when they foul out. One player is from NBL in Australia (Jawai) and 3 from EuroLeague (Pekovic, Asik, Erden) Ajinka is on the list because he played well at the Nike Summit this year (foreign players against USA HS seniors). Ajinka did not play much in EuroLeague but he can sure block shots!

1st round or 2nd round is unknown since we do not need a starter at this time but can begin planning for protection for the end of Joel’s contract in three years. If the best player available is a Center at #13, maybe we take one there but, more likely, one in the 2nd round. I have listed below the Centers projected by Draft Express for 1st round and for 2nd round. I would like to hear if you think any of these would be especially desirable (consider the cost - we probably have a shot at all but Lopez at 13 and all from Pekovic down in the 2nd round without moving) and any that you think would definitely not fit our need. Also add players not listed below.  Perhaps this can remain as a resource for Centers until the draft.

Brook Lopez (20) 7’0” 260 10.6TR 2.7BL 0,64A/TO 3.2PF 46.8%FG 78.9%FT

DeAndre Jordan (20) 7’0” 260 11.9TR 2.5BL 0.28A/TO 3.8PF 61.7%FG 43.7%FT

Kosta Koufos (19) 7’1” 245 9.9TR 2.7BL 0.36A/TO 3.2PF 65.0%FG 68.0%FT

JaVale McGee (20) 7’0” 237 10.7TR 4.1BL 0.26A/TO 3.6PF 52.9FG% 52.5%FT

Alexis Ajinca (20) 7’1” 225 no meaningful stats

Roy Hibbert (21) 7’2” 272 9.7TR 3.4BL 0.46A/TO 4.1PF 60.9%FG 64.6%FT

Robin Lopez (20) 7’0” 255 9.2TR 3.8BL 0.4A/TO 4.3PF 53.4%FG 65.2%FT

Jason Thompson (21) 6’11” 250 14.0TR 3.1BL 0.94A/TO 56.0%FG 58.1%FT

DeVon Hardin (21) 6’11” 250 12.4TR 2.1BL 0.46A/TO 55.4%FG 63.6%FT

Nikola Pekovic (22) 6’11” 243 10.2TR 0.8BL 0.39A/TO 58.4%FG 77.3%FT

Nathan Jawai (21) 6’10” 282 12.2TR 1.3BL 0.76A/TO 57.5FG% 64.5% FT

Omar Asik (21) 6’11” 230 11.8TR 4.5BL 0.30A/TO 3.7PF 59.5%FG 52.7%FT

Trent Plaisted (21) 6’11” 240 10.8TR 1.4BL 0.26A/TO 54.2%FG 54.2%FT

Semih Erden (22) 7’1” 240 8.9TR 1.8BL 0.38A/TO 6.5PF 50.0% FG 57.5%FT

David Padgett (23) 6’11” 240 8.1TR 1.9BL 1.31A/TO 66.7%FG 66.0%FT

Sasha Kaun (23) 6’11” 243 9.7TR 2.8BL 0.25A/TO 5.4PF 61.9%FG 54.1%FT (added by me)

 

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nah

Raef is good enough to be the 3rd string center.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on May 18, 2008 9:58 PM PDT   0 recs

I don't know, JK

I tend to agree with our friend Lee3022. There is no question that our team would be strengthened by adding a bruising third string center. A young tireless rebound hustle machine who throws quick accurate passes.

I guess you are assuming, Lee, that Love will not be available at 13. I heard that his stock is rising because of predraft workouts. I wonder what your position is on maybe trying to move up in the draft if we have a chance to grab Love. Say, if Love is available at # 10 or # 11. What is your move? Which assets would you be willing to trade for the chance to draft Love?

Moving along to your list, I gotta say I haven’t done a lot of research but I’m leary of almost all those names. The only one that I have confidence in is Koufos. But I don’t know if I’d use the #13 to take Koufos. I just don’t think there will be a center available at # 13 that is worthy of a # 13 pick. Lopez (the good Lopez) will already be gone, as will Love. The others are either second rounders or very risky low lottery picks like Koufos and DeAndre Jordan.

As for the second rounders, my motto is “Just choose the bruisers.” Find a bruiser hustle guy with a decent mid-range jumper and lockdown defensive chops. Maybe that’s what McBob will turn out to be. Gotta admit he looks a bit pasty though.

Nature bats last.

by fisheyes on May 18, 2008 11:48 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

For months, I've been advocating that KP snag a bruiser

But not a center. I think in terms of the Millsap, Maxiell, Bass type. You refer to Love and-potentially-McRoberts-as the type the Blazers need. But neither of those guys are centers-at least, not in the NBA.

"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla

by hurryup09 on May 19, 2008 4:07 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I like love's outlet passes

but I am not convinced he will be a center and I am not thinking he will be happy third string. If he drops to 13 then we will see what KP thinks of Love. Draft Express has Love at #8 right now. I don’t think we trade up for him.

Aldridge said. "We feel like we can beat any team. We feel like we can beat the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, whoever any night right now, and we'll still be here when those teams get old and their guys retire. We're going to be here for a long time."

by lee3022 on May 19, 2008 10:07 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Hmmm?

As for next year, we don’t need to worry about centers fouling out and yes Raef is good enough at 3 (though he might get stashed on IR a lot) and LA and Fry can fill in here and there if needed.

Oh and Shaq is done. He won’t be in the league for much longer. I’m guessing next year will be it for him but he might push it too two years. Those knees have been hauling around 300 pounds around the hard wood for a looooooong time.

BUT, if we could get like a Hibbert or Brook Lopez should we draft at the 13th spot it might be a good idea. We should keep Zilla for sure next year but he’s such excellent trade bait that KP will be too tempted to send him out in our runs at LaBron/Paul or someone awesome and more realistically attainable. (though I do not agree with most ya’ll edgers who think there is zero chance at attaining those mega-stars. Psst, our team owner has wicked bank and we’re going to be the place for championships in the years to come) So if we have a great young center around, even if we don’t trade the thrilla, we’d be in great shape after next year when LaFrenz is gone with our three headed mega center.

by Blazersaurus on May 18, 2008 10:38 PM PDT   0 recs

Aldridge filled in nicely

after Przybilla was injured. Not enough minutes leftover for a rookie draftee to develop if one was drafted.

by spencerbutte on May 18, 2008 10:42 PM PDT   0 recs

I agree with you

I’m not all that worried about the magic number “12” getting reached very often to boot. And as you said, in the unlikely event that somebody channels Wilt and fouls out both our starting and our backup center (which might happen, what, once next year?) LMA could fill in admirably.

It’s not that I think having a young hungry center backing up two guys who have been plagued by injuries is a bad idea, not by any stretch of the imagination. But I think there are better uses for a lottery pick than that one—as spencerbutte accurately pointed out, getting 3-4 minutes a game isn’t a great way to develop a young big man. Just ask Patrick O’Bryant (remember him?) or Johann Petro or Robert Swift or…

If Westbrook isn’t available at #13 or isn’t in trade play even with our sizable assets, then I’d like to see us bank the pick—trade it for a future first-rounder or something. But that’s why KP is the GM and I’m just some schlub who posts on message boards.

by BlazersOrBust on May 19, 2008 10:11 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

We have a guy named Greg Oden coming next year....

And my only concern with him is health. I think this foul trouble paranoia is way overblown. Most people point to the Summer League, but if I can remember right, he could barely breathe in the two games he played. He was exhausted from it and that has a tremendous effect on how you play the game. Oden hacked and clawed more than he normally would have due to this. And if this whole “Superstar calls” myth is true, then I think once Oden establishes himself as a premier superstar big man, then he will get slighty more respect from the refs, if you know what I mean. It’s a superstar league.

But the point being, I think this whole severe foul trouble thing that people are worried about is only going to be temporary, if at all. Joel can always be the guy to come off the bench and take fouls in the distant future. I don’t think we have the room on our roster or the need to waste a pick on a garbage big man. we ca always sign guys to 10-day contracts for that kind of stuff.

Oden+Roy+Aldridge+Rudy=Dynasty. Believe

by OdenRoyLMA on May 18, 2008 11:03 PM PDT   0 recs

Rookies don't get respect from refs

And Andrew Bynum (assuming he returns), Tyson Chandler and numerous lesser lights are also big and strong and skilled at drawing fouls. Sometimes we forget that Greg has 1 year playing out of high school. As a big he has so much to learn. The foul trouble is not so much 12 but 4 in the 1st quarter (2 apiece). Suddenly that scenario is replayed 20 times as teams learn where we are exposed.

Aldridge said. "We feel like we can beat any team. We feel like we can beat the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, whoever any night right now, and we'll still be here when those teams get old and their guys retire. We're going to be here for a long time."

by lee3022 on May 19, 2008 10:16 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

LMA will be bigger and stronger next season

That’s another near-seven footer (with long arms to boot). Plus there’s Raef & Frye. Further, I disagree with those who assume Oden’s summer league foul trouble is indicative of what we’ll see from him next season. He was exhausted and overeager. By contrast, GO will be going into the coming preseason in top shape and with a year spent studying how NBA refs officiate. Sure he’ll pick up plenty of fouls—but nothing like what we saw last year.

Of course, you can never have too many big bodies in the NBA. But I think the Blazers’ greater needs are at the guard and forward positions. Two quality centers is enough.

"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla

by hurryup09 on May 18, 2008 11:29 PM PDT   0 recs

I hope to see LMA exclusively at Forward

This guy is going to be better than David West but needs to study and play forward. If he gets big like Jermaine O’Neal will he be able to out-quick his opponents? Reading of Coach Nate’s comments regarding Greg’s size this winter leads me to believe that is not the plan.

Aldridge said. "We feel like we can beat any team. We feel like we can beat the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, whoever any night right now, and we'll still be here when those teams get old and their guys retire. We're going to be here for a long time."

by lee3022 on May 19, 2008 10:21 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

rookie centers

only brook lopez, deandra jordan, and roy hibbert excite me from that list. we don’t really need another rookie big man. I’d rather have a playoff tested guy like joe smith

Woof

by Charles Barkley McLovin on May 19, 2008 12:53 AM PDT   0 recs

It certainly is an option

that we add a free agent Center but that cuts into our salary cap and likely does not get us the instant energy of a younger Center.

Aldridge said. "We feel like we can beat any team. We feel like we can beat the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, whoever any night right now, and we'll still be here when those teams get old and their guys retire. We're going to be here for a long time."

by lee3022 on May 19, 2008 10:23 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

How many times did Thrilla foul out this year?

Not very many. With limited minutes behind GO, that should go down even more. Do the blazers need another center when we have 2 good ones, plus Frye and LMA? We’re already squeezed for roster space.

If all else fails, McBob could win games 1 on 5. He’s that good.

Thanks PA, KP, Nate, BRoy, LMA, GO, 'Tell, Trout, JJ's, Buffet, Blake (not Blakey), Thrilla Hundred-dolla Billa, McBob (just 'cuz you're cool), Sergio (just 'cuz you've got flash), and Raef (ummm...just 'cuz)....and Dean Demo, Maurice, Monty (You rock Monty!), Bill Bayno (good luck with your new job), Bobby, Jay, and everyone else I'm forgetting (scouts, other front office people) who made the Return of Rip City possible, including the media (Mike B., Casey, Dave, Ben). And tominhawaii. Can't forget him.

by prezofdeath on May 19, 2008 6:44 AM PDT   0 recs

He had 2 fouls in the 1st quarter

a number of times (from memory) and as our only Center we sucked as soon as Thrilla sat down. Injuries happen and when they do a 3rd player at the position is essential.

Aldridge said. "We feel like we can beat any team. We feel like we can beat the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, whoever any night right now, and we'll still be here when those teams get old and their guys retire. We're going to be here for a long time."

by lee3022 on May 19, 2008 10:25 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I wouldn't be surprised...

if KP did select a big guy to stash at the back of the roster, simply because they maintain their value better than any any other position (KPs words, not mine).

Although I think this is about on par w/ trading the pick (which I think is very likely), since we would basically be punting this year’s draft to help smooth out making a deal in the following years.

by Devenex on May 19, 2008 8:16 AM PDT   0 recs

I have been thinking the same thing. I am generally of the opinion that you always take BPA available, but in our case, I don’t really want an all around player who might develop into a starter. I want someone who can come in an fill a specific role. For that, I like the idea of Robin Lopez. He is an athletic big who can provide good energy and defense off the bench. He doesn’t have much offense at the moment but we will have time to develop him before he needs to get into the rotation to fill Joel’s role. I would send him to the d-league for a year then have him fill Raef’s role for a year then step up to Joel’s role. Joel should be a great trade asset in the next couple of years. If we have a capable backup ready to step in that frees us up to make a move. If we could trade down a few picks an grab him while picking up a future pick or other consideration I would be happy.

Brett Pill - Lord of the double.

by malarky on May 19, 2008 9:21 AM PDT   0 recs

you're all wrong

You trade for future first round picks… unless we get a player that we want.

We have too much playing time to juggle and PF’s and Centers a plenty already.

Here's to being hated. Come on #1 pick!

by ratbastird on May 19, 2008 10:14 AM PDT   0 recs

P.S.

the below comment was supposed to be to you. Oops.

by BlazersOrBust on May 19, 2008 10:39 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Dear ratbastird

“If Westbrook isn’t available at #13 or isn’t in trade play even with our sizable assets, then I’d like to see us bank the pick—trade it for a future first-rounder or something.”

Now who’s all wrong? Huh? Huh????

by BlazersOrBust on May 19, 2008 10:39 AM PDT   0 recs

My only hope

is that we find a stiff 7’er with the uncanny ability to get dunked on while fouling for the and-one.

BLZRS FRVR

by nightbluefruit on May 19, 2008 10:55 AM PDT   0 recs

I want Kevin Love and Sasha Kaun just because he has such a cool name.

Hello, I am tominhawaii, think of me as the irritating tobacco ads of Blazer's Edge.

by tominhawaii on May 19, 2008 2:44 PM PDT   0 recs

No

It’s just cause you like white guys. Racist.

"I never worried if there would be an earthquake or something in Oregon, but now I can do." amlmart1

by Sabonis4Ever on May 19, 2008 3:00 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

You got it backwards

I think I’ve gone on record that I don’t care for haoles. 30 empty seats on a bus and a haole will sit with me. Hippie haoles with their hemp necklaces and North Face backpacks always ask the bus driver too many questions, trying to get to the north shore. Dang haoles stole the Native Hawaiian’s land. A lot of haoles treat locals like they’re stupid because they speak a little pidgin. I could go on, but I don’t think racist rants are BE friendly. I want Sasha Kaun because his intro music could be I Feel For You. That would be so cool.

Hello, I am tominhawaii, think of me as the irritating tobacco ads of Blazer's Edge.

by tominhawaii on May 19, 2008 3:43 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Sasha Kaun

Please see my above comment wherein I proclaim:

” My only hope is that we find a stiff 7’er with the uncanny ability to get dunked on while fouling for the and-one.”

Hence, I mirror your desire for Sasha Kaun

BLZRS FRVR

by nightbluefruit on May 19, 2008 4:09 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Ah

Good one. I can’t see YouTube at work so I wasn’t sure who you were talking about. I see the 3rd center as 6 more fouls. Raef is good for that.

Hello, I am tominhawaii, think of me as the irritating tobacco ads of Blazer's Edge.

by tominhawaii on May 19, 2008 4:31 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Sasha is better than people know

He was the best defender in rotation bigs for KU and has good rebounding and pretty good scoring moves. He was very efficient with his possessions. That said he was not so good at catching passes (remind you of anyone named Joel?).

Aldridge said. "We feel like we can beat any team. We feel like we can beat the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, whoever any night right now, and we'll still be here when those teams get old and their guys retire. We're going to be here for a long time."

by lee3022 on May 19, 2008 10:29 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't see center as being a critical position to fill.

It’s a sign of how good we have it when the topic of discussion is “Do we need to develop a third string center?”

My answer is no. LaFrenz is more than adequate to fill that role next season. And I agree with hurry that Aldridge can be available to eat center minutes, particularly when you consider we have Frye and Outlaw to provide minutes at the 4.

But I am definitely in agreement for using a 2nd round pick on Jawai or even Koufos (although I think the latter might be gone by early in the 2nd). I like Nathan Jawai as a PF or center prospect with some nice upside and the option to keep stashed overseas for a year or 2. It’s a low risk, high reward scenario that fits our current situation of a crowded roster.

by timg56 on May 19, 2008 4:05 PM PDT   0 recs

And when KP cashes in Raef at the deadline?

who is going to fill in for injuries? I love Raef but we all know Raef is done.

Aldridge said. "We feel like we can beat any team. We feel like we can beat the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, whoever any night right now, and we'll still be here when those teams get old and their guys retire. We're going to be here for a long time."

by lee3022 on May 19, 2008 10:31 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Good Point

It would be nice if the new guy had a year under his belt when Raef’s contract expires.

Hello, I am tominhawaii, think of me as the irritating tobacco ads of Blazer's Edge.

by tominhawaii on May 19, 2008 11:42 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

We don't know that LaFrenz will be traded.

There are good arguments for keeping him and letting his deal come off the books.

Besides, by the time February rolls around, we could very well find we have two healthy and productive bigmen who we are trying to get at least 50 minutes a game.

This is the sort of topic I actually prefer to the endless point guard dreck. That’s because the underlying message is that we believe we have a really good team and are left to just tweaking around the edges.

by timg56 on May 20, 2008 6:18 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

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