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Even More Playoff Lessons

A couple more reflections from the playoffs...

1.  Free-throw shooting is important!  The best teams, the ones that are hardest to beat and/or put away, have players who can draw and make free throws and offenses designed to take advantage of it when their backs are against the wall.  Not only do charity tosses boost your overall point production, they make it oh-so-hard for teams to come back on you.  Portland drew fewer foul shots this year than they had in any season since 2003-04.  Part of that was youth and lack of history with the refs, but a huge part was also our jump-shooting offense.  This is one of the reasons we'll not find playoff success without a more aggressive attack.  It's a definite area to work on.

2.  These are good teams...really good teams, but you can clearly see the difference between "really good" and "championship material".  The line is fine.  The distance is actually not that great...a few points here, a play or two there.  But that line is bright nonetheless.  In the NBA championship teams almost never surprise you by making a fortunate run through the playoffs.  The long, seven-game series all but prevent an accidental title winner.  Champions walk and play like champions coming into a series and dare you to knock them off.  Really good teams jump into the fray with them and hope to get some bounces. 

There's a dual point here.  First, you can't wait until your playoff run to start playing and acting like champions.  I'm not saying every game is equal.  You can have down stretches and nights off just like every team.  But basically you better have a consistent, reliable, championship-level game and focus from the get-go and then prove it for six months straight.  You better be tested and hardened before you make it deep into the post season.  Otherwise you're going to get broken.  Second, that kind of attitude doesn't take just one season.  You have to build a team to be a champion and not just pretty good.  It takes practice to be a champion and not just pretty good.  Those habits and that attitude have to be burned into your synapses until they become second nature.  You can't just conjure them up when you need them or they will fail you.  This is an important lesson for a young club like Portland.  It's also an explanation of some of the things Kevin Pritchard and Nate McMillan do even at these early developmental stages.  Sometimes we fans will say, "Why not take a flyer on this trade?" or "Why not play this guy?  It's not like it matters!"  Two years ago that may have been true.  Last year less so.  Now it's just not applicable.  If you're looking at Brandon Roy, Lamarcus Aldridge, Greg Oden, and some of these other guys as our future you have to realize that the shape of that future is already being decided.  We are far too young to be considered championship material right now.  But when we do develop to the point where we should be contending do you want these guys to have to learn a whole new mindset or do you want those championship habits to have been ingrained in them as if they've never known anything else?  These games and practices do matter.  The attitudes and lessons do matter.  If you start making incautious trades to get better quickly or if you start compromising philosophies in your rotation or style of play you're planting a seed in these guys' minds.  It may not flower immediately.  In fact it may look like you've made a short-term gain with your appeasement.  But someday these guys are going to have to walk on the court like they own it...to look at that NBA title as their right and their destiny which nobody is going to take from them.  The teams that win are the ones who don't doubt that.  They don't hope, they expect.  The opposition will attempt to compromise those expectations.  Our job is not to give them any cracks to crawl through, making it easy to break us.  A solid wall requires a solid foundation, which is exactly what management is trying to lay right now.  That's why you don't see the easy, compromise road taken.

I watched the L.A.-Utah game tonight.  I saw the comeback.  I saw the near-misses.  Jazz fans will play the "what-if" game all summer.  If only Korver had shot it instead of Okur five feet further back.  If only Williams' heave had rimmed in instead of out.  That's no different than Blazer fans back in '91 with Porter's shot or Uncle Cliffy's drop.  You know what else I saw out there?  I saw one team that knew it was walking away with this series.  Whether that was in six games or seven didn't matter.  They knew it.  I saw another really good team making desperate heaves trying to deny them, hoping that it would work.  It was only three points, but the wall between 108 and 105 might as well have been a mile high.

Someday that's going to be Portland against the L*kers or Hornets or Jazz or some other team.  We better decide now which side of that wall we're going to be on.  Then we'd better practice, play, and make decisions accordingly.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

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Agreed

There’s a fine line between the championship-caliber teams and the very good ones, but it’s pretty unmistakable. I was rooting for the (ughh) Jazz to knock off the Fakers, but I never really believed they could do it. It takes more than one great player (Deron Williams) and some good ones. Similarly, while I hope the Hornets can beat the Spurs in Game 7, I sense that they’re still a season away from serious title contention.

But if I’m a Hornets fan, that’s OK: they’re ahead of schedule, really. Hopefully the Blazers too can jump from missing the playoffs right to taking the defending champion to seven games in Round 2. I’d settle for that any day.

"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla

by hurryup09 on May 16, 2008 11:49 PM PDT reply actions  

The thing is

I think the Jazz have talent comparable to the L*kers. I think their coach is every bit as good as Phil Jackson. But there’s just something different about Kobe and company, and it’s more than talent (even Kobe’s amazing talent). It’s almost like a birthright…a drive that L.A. has and Utah doesn’t right now. And I think that drive in Kobe has been honed for years.

Some teams and players never get that drive. I think it can be developed but the longer it takes you to figure it out the smaller your chances are to succeed at the highest level. That’s why I love what we’re doing with these guys when they are in their early 20’s. Build that expectation NOW and don’t compromise it a bit. Walk around just like Kobe did when he first got into the league, knowing that it’s only a matter of time before you get a title. Then practice, play, develop, and drill…putting in the work to make it a reality.

—Dave

by Dave on May 16, 2008 11:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Good point

But it helps when you get Pau Gasol for practically zip. For all of Kobe’s undeniable talent and drive, the Fakers weren’t going anywhere this season without the Grizzlies’ remarkable generosity. Hmm: while Memphis is in the mood, maybe they’ll trade us the Derrek Rose pick for Raef’s expiring contract…

"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla

by hurryup09 on May 17, 2008 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

Or Rudy Gay

Mortimer and I agree. He is the bomb digity.

"I never worried if there would be an earthquake or something in Oregon, but now I can do." amlmart1

by Sabonis4Ever on May 17, 2008 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

Rudy Gay

is a talent on offense, but he plays just about zero defense.

If somebody hits you with an object you should beat the hell out of them.-Charles Barkley

by Winchester on May 17, 2008 6:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

You remind me the debate about Brandon resting

and our best players playing time versus other young players development.

I undertand it better now. No rest for the core: go out, play, learn, suffer, win!

Of those powders these muds went out.

by amlmart1 on May 17, 2008 1:00 AM PDT reply actions  

Absolutely.

The young guys we need to develop are not sitting at the end of our bench, outside the rotation. They are the ones who start and finish the games. The whole team needs to develop that hunger, that confidence in order to survive the playoffs. And next year, those playoffs are coming to Portland. We can only expect Portland to win if the players expect to win. Dave really did hit the nail on the head on this one.

One of Two Official Blazer's Edge Poets Laureate for the 2008-2009 Season

"Scholars have long known that fishing eventually turns men into philosophers. Unfortunately, it is almost impossible to buy decent tackle on a philosopher's salary." - Patrick McManus

by T Darkstar on May 17, 2008 6:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

You are right

It takes more than talent. MJ was probably not the most talented player ever but he was the most determined.

It is one reason I hope we keep Martell. He seems to have that fire to be the best and will take his teammates with him.

So how does Coach Nate & co achieve this? Seems to start with the bonding done this year. Accountability by everyone is another step. Then what?

Aldridge said. "We feel like we can beat any team. We feel like we can beat the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, whoever any night right now, and we'll still be here when those teams get old and their guys retire. We're going to be here for a long time."

by lee3022 on May 17, 2008 2:25 AM PDT reply actions  

Yet I remember last year when it seemed like the Spurs were

just mailing in their effort for the first half of the season and didn’t start turning it on until the end of the regular season. And still they won it all.

I also remember that 1977 was the first year ever for the Blazers making the playoffs, and still they won it all.

My points? I don’t really have any, expect I suppose that not all roads to success follow the same route.

And we can analyze all we want but the difference between Utah and the Lakers is Kobe Bryant. As Mychael Thompson recently opined, the Blazers look to be great in the near future with the players they have accumulated. But he expects the Lakers to find more success than them for the next 4 or 5 years because they’ll have Kobe still performing at a high level. After that, when Kobe likely slows down, he expects the Blazers to dominate.

by TwoDeep on May 17, 2008 7:18 AM PDT reply actions  

After a half-dozen or so championships

the Spurs qualify as knowing way more about what it takes to win one than I do.

However I bet if you want back to their first (or even first couple) they probably had that kind of attitude and dedication I’m talking about. Also Coach Pop DEFINITELY counts as the stickler-for-detail, make-the-right-decisions, no-compromise-on-quality guy.

—Dave

by Dave on May 17, 2008 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yes,

I think you’re so right about coach Pop. And we have some of that in Nate I’m pretty sure.

by TwoDeep on May 17, 2008 7:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

I agree with MT on this one

I see the same path for the Blazers. They will spend the next 4 years getting better and better, then come 2012, the real successes will start for the next 8 years or so. Funny, this is exactly what Fatty said during the summer, when is he making his return anyway?

by mark twain on May 17, 2008 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think

just before the 2008-09 season starts, can’t really remember.

by jamon51 on May 17, 2008 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Owning a game

That is the path to championships and I thank you Dave for the eloquent way in which you elaborate on this point. The Blazers are just starting to build their swagger. We own the Jazz already and we’re not far off from owning the L@kers (yeah we split the season series but Roy was out in both losses and Roy owned Kobe in the wins). Where we currently struggle is against the veteran elites; the Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, and Spurs. Next year I’m sure we’ll play them more confidently especially with Oden manning the middle. We greatly improved this year in games against Phoenix; sure we lost all 3 games but we were competative down the stretch whereas in the previous years we were routed. The big question to be answered is who will be our Kobe-esque player, the who who gets to the line whenever he wants. Obviously Roy is capable, but from this last season only Jack appears like he might be able to with development. If jack does develop (and I think Nate spends a good amount of time with Jack) he can be very good but he is still flawed as of yet (in four years He will be one of the better PG in the league (not top notch but possibly top ten). We have two more good hopes for guys who can consistently draw the foul: Oden and Rudy. Thank god because Jack can stimulate some good indigestion in his learning years.

by NWfan on May 17, 2008 8:08 AM PDT reply actions  

Jack

The thing about Jack’s game is that the areas that he struggles with are correctable, frustrating yes, but correctable. His strengths are not easily taught/learned. He could be a key role player for this team over the next five years if he watches tapes of his turnovers and focuses on not jumping and passing. He does have moments where he sees the floor quite well, when he finds LMA or James Jones trailing on the break. Those only open up because he is a threat to penetrate and score/draw the foul. He also has the toughness that will help the Blazers stand up to any rough play they face in the playoffs.

He may not be a star but I think he can be one of those role players that is key to winning.

PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04

by tssbro on May 17, 2008 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

To each point:

To the first point about free throws:
Let’s also specify that it’s bad-charity-stripe-shooting BIG MEN that seem to be the biggest liability.
Joel clearly got this, putting a priority on improving his free throw percentage last season.
Oden, take notice: If you can sink FT’s, your whole career will go much easier (more wins, more rings, less hacks).
Too bad that we don’t have any reliable indicator of what “improvement” would be with him;
I’d love to see him just not be bad in his rookie season, and improve from there.

I’ll go out on a limb and say Oden needs to shoot better than 65% next season,
or he’ll be looking like a hack target immediately.

On your second point, about champs clearly seeming champ-ish:
Boston doesn’t really seem to qualify, do they? Nor does Cleveland.
Detroit didn’t in the first round against Philly, but that dismissal of the Magic looked like what you’re talking about.
Personally, based on your observation, expect Detroit in the finals.
Either the Cavs OR Celtics will be Jazz-like against the Pistons’ L[xxx]rish guise.

And in the west, while your point applies to the difference between La-La and the Jazz,
what do we make of the Spoors and the Hornies?
From what I’ve seen, I think they both have the champ-like “it”. Game 7 should be a classic.
And the L[xxx]rs will have their hands full no matter who comes out of Monday night;
what got The Kobenauts through the first two rounds won’t get them out of the conference finals.
One great game on monday, followed by another matchup of champion-quality teams.
Winner gets the Pistons.

Blazers have a five-on-three...and they pull it back and wait for help.

by QualityPie on May 17, 2008 9:15 AM PDT reply actions  

I'd say

if Oden shoots 60%+ he would not be hacked. 65+ is pretty good for a 7 footer. But point taken.

by jamon51 on May 17, 2008 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, he IS a good free throw shooter.

That’s part of the package with him, why he’s a franchise-player top pick, with more promise than Durant.
He’s expected to shoot “pretty good for a 7 footer.”

And lest we forget, his shooting hand (right hand) was hurt for his Ohio State season; as per a NY Times article,
Oden “shot free throws left-handed until March, sinking 62 percent of them”!

And that’s part of the mystery for him: We don’t have reliable post-high-school stats on his shooting
on which to base expectations for his performance next year, since he was out this season
and shooting mostly left-handed the previous season in college.

Still, we know he’s exceptional: For a fundamentally-sound true center with a huge defensive impact,
he’s a great free throw shooter. Shaq can’t say that. Ben Wallace couldn’t say that.
62% when shooting with the wrong hand?!? YEE-HAW!

Blazers have a five-on-three...and they pull it back and wait for help.

by QualityPie on May 17, 2008 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

sounds about right

Between you and Dave and NWfan, you’ve got ti right.

by rburg on May 17, 2008 9:38 AM PDT reply actions  

Jack

I agree with NWfan and tssbro regarding Jack. He is only 23. He will improve. Really appreciated the past two “playoff reflections”!!

by yellowman1500 on May 19, 2008 9:05 AM PDT reply actions  

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