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Lottery Time

Next Tuesday, May 20th, marks the annual ritual of ping-pong ball counting to determine the future of the NBA.  In case you're not familiar with the standings and odds, here is the list of teams and number of combinations they'll each have out of 1000:

  1. Miami Heat    250
  2. Seattle Supersonics 199
  3. Minnesota Timberwolves 138
  4. Memphis Grizzlies 137
  5. New York Knicks 76
  6. Los Angeles Clippers 75
  7. Milwaukee Bucks 43
  8. Charlotte Bobcats 28
  9. Chicago Bulls 17
  10. New Jersey Nets 11
  11. Indiana Pacers 8
  12. Sacramento Kings 7
  13. Portland Trail Blazers 6
  14. Golden State Warriors 5

As you can see, the odds of another Portland leap into the Top 3 are tiny.  Which is good.  Because I'm here to state, even as a Blazer fan who bleeds red and black and desires nothing so much as another championship in Portland, I do not want those picks.  Of course it would be nifty for the Blazers to get one.  We'd be in far better position for talent and trades.  But you'll have a hard time convincing me it's better for the strength, credibility, and health of this league for a team like Portland to nab a Top 3 pick over Minnesota or Seattle or even the Knicks.  As a Blazer fan I am not afraid to say that would be a travesty.  I am not afraid to bring up again that having 14 teams eligible for the number one pick is silly and that the lottery should be two-tiered, with only the seven worst teams getting chances at the top three spots.  Sure the chances are small for any individual team from the 8-14 slots to move up, but taken collectively those teams have 82 chances, which puts them as a group in 5th place overall this year.  It doesn't seem right for the Warriors, Blazers, Kings, Pacers, Nets, Bulls, and Bobcats to be sandwiched in between the Grizzlies and Knicks in terms of lottery probability.  None of those teams should get a high pick.  All of them (save perhaps the Kings) have a higher future potential than any of the worst five teams.  What the heck are those names doing in there?

Of course there's a temptation to say, "Whatever is good for the Blazers is what's right."  You can think of 100 reasons why Blazer fans are longer-suffering, why our team is more noble and deserving of luck, why our close misses (among all of those league-wide) should all of a sudden be turned into wild success by this bouncing ball of fate.  But you know what?  Talk to a Bucks fan about that, or a 'Wolves fan, or a Sonics fan.  They haven't suffered also?  They haven't dealt with close calls and dashed hopes?  There's no nobility in any of those franchises?  How would an outcome which put Portland's name above theirs be better in the grand scheme of things?

I am not a hypocrite.  I realize that this lottery system brought Greg Oden to Portland.  But I hasten to point out that we, too, were a bottom-seven team when that happened.  There's no conflict between that event and the assertion that only the worst teams should have a shot at #1.  I made this claim when Portland was in the worst tier and the system potentially worked to their disadvantage.  I stick by it when Portland is in the better tier and it could conceivably work to their great advantage.  It just...shouldn't...happen.

Would I take the pick if Portland wins it?  Of course...I'd have to.  Would I celebrate?  Part of me would.  But part of me would also think that's a real shame and somewhat of a crock.  If a team with the brightest cadre of young stars in the league gets one more while some of these other teams limp along in misery something isn't right.  You may say they made their own beds, which is true, but they're supposed to be able to find a way out of them as well.  Theoretically the draft is their vehicle.  It would be a shame if our fortune got in the way of that. 

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

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not trying to be smart..

I really like what you said, noble and just minded. That is good. I can see how with as strong as the west is, just how much of a black eye it was for the nba to send the 2 franchize players to the pacNW, to 2 relatively small markets, and keeping an imbalence to the “forrce”. But wouldn’t it make tanking even more likely? I really don’t know how that would affect things posatively. I keep thinking that the law of averages will give the worst team the best pick the major majority of the time, but to ensure that teams dont specificaly try for that role ala celtics last year the check and balence system of a good old fasion b!#@&slap every now and then would keep it interesting. I never got to read your original posts, so if there was further explations on how this would play out appropriatly, well I just don’t know. i almost dont want to post, but I wont get to adress my lack of knowledge about the draft proscess, and how this feeds and affects the future of the nba with out specificaly asking why.
i feal like a 5 year old. Why?

"Could we make a deal right now to make us a 50-win team? No question," Pritchard said. "Will that get us a championship? That’s what we always have to evaluate."

As the great Vonnegut said, more or less... "You are what you pretend to be, so you must be very careful what you pretend to be."

by timbo on Apr 29, 2008 7:33 AM PDT

by ptwnblzr on May 15, 2008 11:49 PM PDT reply actions  

Greater good

Dave’s really raising larger ethical issues here. Is it right to eat at a fancy steakhouse when kids are starving in Africa? How about at Olive Garden? More specifically, why are people accorded a higher “personhood” as a result of their geographic, familial, or cultural proximity to ourselves? If I give money to a Portland charity, is this really the most efficient worldwide use of the money?

This is an interesting issues as it relates to sports. We want the Blazers to succeed, even though their likely plodding style and (we hope) monotonous playoff success will possibly cause a net average drop in nationwide enjoyment of the game of basketball. Is it our problem that the rest of the country would see our getting the #1 pick as the equivalent of hearing that their CEO just won Powerball?

Perhaps the point of basketball is that we spend our time, money, and energy to have a “time out” from all this stuff. Anyway, my head hurts. Maybe there’s yet another Devin Harris vs. Calderon diary to read…

by Engineering Problem on May 15, 2008 11:52 PM PDT reply actions   2 recs

Engineering Problem the sweet dime to Dave for 2!

Ok, I can feal that, and applaud the altruistic nature of the post. Admittidly, there is some grey, I do want the Blazers to do well, selfishly wanting to vicariosly be a wourld champ, and I don’t feal bad if there are less Blazers to enjoy the celabration, then for example, almost any other team. But i do agree that we or any other shouldn’t be too agressive in our goals, unfaily stepping on others. And as long as compatition and sportsmanship didn’t suffer, I would be open.

"Could we make a deal right now to make us a 50-win team? No question," Pritchard said. "Will that get us a championship? That’s what we always have to evaluate."

As the great Vonnegut said, more or less... "You are what you pretend to be, so you must be very careful what you pretend to be."

by timbo on Apr 29, 2008 7:33 AM PDT

by ptwnblzr on May 16, 2008 12:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

If Beasley

could be coached to share the ball and play team ball, what a SF he would be for us. The future PG function could be shared between Roy an Rudy. Just Dreaming!

by spencerbutte on May 16, 2008 12:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

Don't like Lottery at all really

Why even have a two tiered system? Your logic would suggest that it is right to have bad teams get the higher picks, so why have a lottery at all? I guess it is to keep teams from tanking. Does it do that? Not really. So again why have it at all if the goal is fairness/equality?

PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04

by tssbro on May 16, 2008 12:49 AM PDT reply actions  

Two tiers

would protect against tanking while not flirting with crass inequity every off-season. The lottery will never go away now because it’s become a huge media/fan deal.

—Dave

by Dave on May 16, 2008 1:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

how can two tiers protect against tanking??....

when it actually makes teams that know they have no chance of making the playoffs to tank the season so they can get into the “worst tier” or ”#1 tier” whatever u wanna call it, to have a better chance at the top 3 picks…your theory just doesnt make any sense…...there is no perfect solution to the NBA draft, but i think this is the best way to handle the draft, except for maybe give the top 3 teams with the worst record more chances and lessen the chances of the last 11 teams in the lottery….
#1- 300 combos
#2- 250 combos
#3- 200 combos
#4- 81 combos
#5- 66 combos
#6- 40 combos
#7- 25 combos
#8- 15 combos
#9- 8 combos
#10- 5 combos
#11- 4 combos
#12- 3 combos
#13- 2 combos
#14- 1 combo

by simon1823 on May 16, 2008 10:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

Nothing "protects" against tanking entirely

but two tiers would help because you’d have to go farther down (into the worst 7) to get a shot at #1. It’s not worth tanking to get a shot at #8 so if you’re not going to be in the worst 7 anyway it’s not worth worrying about. Those teams are all going to be worrying about making the playoffs far more than they worry about getting the #8 position in the lottery. Thus you give fewer teams advantages for losing. Basically tanking, if it happened, would only happen among the worst teams (which would also happen big-time under your proposal).

Basically those combos for the better teams in the lottery, be they the 82 in the current system or the 38 in your system, aren’t going to keep anybody from tanking if they decide it’s to their advantage. They do have the potential, however, to really screw up a draft. (Imagine Phoenix having gotten the #1 pick last year-and Greg Oden-because they once made a trade with a mediocre team.) The advantages don’t outweigh the potential disadvantages. I’m pretty sure the NBA knows this also, but the lottery is only partially a tanking solution. It’s also a huge publicity stunt. They like having newspapers and fans in 14 cities talking about the potential odds. That can also be achieved in a two-tier system though.

—Dave

by Dave on May 17, 2008 1:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

Explained in simpler terms

Let’s say you’re #10 in the lottery standings. Right now you get an advantage if you get to #9, #8, #7, etc. Every game you lose potentially gives you more shots at those high picks.

In a two-tier system if you’re #10 you don’t get any advantage as far as getting a Top 3 pick unless you’re sure you can tank all the way to #7. And even then your chances of getting a premium pick from the #7 spot are small compared to the #1-#6 teams. So really you’d need to tank to #5 or lower to make it worthwhile. That’s a tall order. Could you tank to get a better shot at the #8 pick? Sure. But my guess is you’re going to look the other direction and say, “Let’s just try to win as many as we can and maybe make the playoffs or at least sell some more tickets. #8 won’t fill up the stands as much as a better record would.”

—Dave

by Dave on May 17, 2008 1:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

Your right

It will never go away now. The goal isn’t really fairness or equality. The goal is to get Blazer fans(or any fans) to dream about the small chance that they might get a better pick than they deserve.

I have been trying to figure out why the NFL doesn’t worry about teams tanking games to improve their draft status. What is the difference? less games? draft position isn’t as important? more choices of quality players from the college ranks? One player can have a bigger impact in NBA than the NFL? NBA’s choice to market stars instead of teams?

I guess all of these play into it.

The two tier system does improve the lottery if the goal is to make it a bit more tank proof. I am with you on that. I just don’t think that is the goal.

PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04

by tssbro on May 17, 2008 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

So, how does the lottery physically work??

Do they start with the number pick, put all the ping-pong size balls in some container, mix them and someone hands pick a ball out? Then once this is done, remove all of that team’s balls, and do the same thing for the #2 pick…??

Anyone know??

by hotstuffdb22 on May 16, 2008 4:11 AM PDT reply actions  

from Wikiperdia
To determine the winner, fourteen ping pong balls numbered 1-14 are placed in a standard lottery machine and four balls are randomly selected from the lot. Just as in most traditional lotteries, the order in which the numbers are drawn is not important. That is, 1-2-3-4 is considered to be the same as 4-3-2-1. So although there is a total of 24 orders in which the balls numbered 1-2-3-4 can be picked, they are all treated as the same outcome. In doing this, the permutation of 4 balls from 14 becomes the combination of 4 balls from 14. That is, the total of 24,024 (14! / 10!, or 14×13x12×11) possible permutations is reduced by a factor of 24, to 1,001 combinations. Of these, 1 outcome is disregarded and 1,000 outcomes are distributed among the 14 non-playoff NBA teams. The combination 11-12-13-14 (in any order that those numbers are drawn) is not assigned and it is ignored if drawn; this has never occurred in practice.

In the event a lottery pick is traded to another team, the record of the original team (whose pick it was before the trade) still matters in determining eligibility for the lottery, and assignment of chances.

by spencerbutte on May 16, 2008 7:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

They keep pulling number combinations out until they get the #2, then the #3—and if they pull a team that has already been selected they just re-draw. No big deal. It’s only 3 picks, after all.

by jamon51 on May 16, 2008 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Unfortunately for everyone else, we will win it.

Perhaps this will pave the way for changing the system to be more fair, both in terms of the lottery and playoff seeding. They’ll probably name the new rule after us. I wouldn’t mind the Bucks coming up with pick #2. I hope their new GM can work something out of that mess.

One of Two Official Blazer's Edge Poets Laureate for the 2008-2009 Season

"Scholars have long known that fishing eventually turns men into philosophers. Unfortunately, it is almost impossible to buy decent tackle on a philosopher's salary." - Patrick McManus

by T Darkstar on May 16, 2008 4:16 AM PDT reply actions  

What about the middle?

It seems like tanking would still occur, but in addition to tanking for the most balls, middling teams would start tanking to make the bottom 7 as well. I mean was there really much difference between CHA and MIL this year? Both teams have talent and underperformed, but I doubt one was objectively worse than the other. Yet this system would only give one of them a shot at the #1 pick.

I lead where your heart is at Dave, but I don’t think a two tiered system is the answer.

And if you really want change then you should root for Portland to land a top 3, as that would guarantee some sort of shakeup from what is now being employed, or at least that is my take for this year.

by Devenex on May 16, 2008 8:37 AM PDT reply actions  

my thoughts exactly

If it fills a need, if it fills a rebuilding situation. And my goal is to fill and rebuild and I am not going to be shortsighted.
- Isiah Thomas

by JTDuck22 on May 16, 2008 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks Dave, now I have guilt...

I totally agree with your post, but, well I’m selfish. What do you guys think about a two tiered system like you mentioned but no difference in the odds for the worse team compared to the 7th or 8th, or however many are in the first tier. maybe that way you wouldn’t see so much of a tanking situation.

by monkeybones on May 16, 2008 9:16 AM PDT reply actions  

Blame Houston

In the now infamous Jordan draft (Hakeem draft) ...Houston tanked outragously to end up tied with Indiana for the worst record in the league. The Blazers who had accquired Indy’s pick in a trade for Tom Owens (Tom Owens? Are you kidding me?? Why doesn’t Indy get more crap for trading that pick). The Blazers lost a coin toss for the right to pick Hakeem (and took Bowie as we all know). That all brings me to my real point…..if we do win the lottery this year it will be because we DESERVE it. It will be a karmic equalization (I just made that phrase up BTW). Don’t feel bad Dave. Rejoice in the fact that the universe would now be back in balance.

"Be wary of strong drink. It can make you shoot at tax collectors... and miss" Robert A. Heinlein

by 92wastheyear on May 16, 2008 10:15 AM PDT reply actions  

i couldn't agree anymore...

Our time has for good fortune in the draft, now, Dave, you wanna say we shouldnt deserve to get this because the system of the draft is crap?....and you wouldnt be celebrating it??.....i love your posts and opinions on everything, Dave, but sorry i cant agree with ya on this one????

by simon1823 on May 16, 2008 10:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

As much as I'd like to share your altruism

Can’t do it.

If we win that lottery, I will feel NO guilt whatsoever.

by AndrewD on May 16, 2008 10:22 AM PDT reply actions  

You've made poker references

before. At some point, no matter how much of a rock you are, you’ll draw to an inside straight or a backdoor flush. You’ll be embarassed, but it’s happened to you. Take the money, quietly stack the chips. Hope it puts the bad beat on titl. Who knows what Danny Ainge would do if we won again?

I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich

by hobobob on May 16, 2008 10:32 AM PDT reply actions  

I have no problems about getting lucky again.

I don’t worry about starving kids in Africa when I go out to dinner.

There are numerous things in life to worry about. The fact we live in the US means that for most of us, our worries are considerably less than for much of the world. Even with that, there is still enough to consider without taking on silly stuff like worrying about the health of the NBA or the feelings of fans in another city. I have absolutely no control in how the NBA is operated or how the draft is constructed. Nor have I ever dictated to any individual that they must be a fan of some sports team. Do I feel bad for Bucks fans? Sure. I’ve rooted for teams that have experienced long droughts from being a winning organization. I’ve even atch my team get sold and relocated. So I have some sympathy for other fans. But not so much that I’d feel bad if my team gets better at their expense.

There is a simple little rule to follow in life. And it’s this – Life is hard, and then you die. That is all each of us can truly expect. The fact that most of us really don’t know how hard life is is a blessing and something we should appreciate every day.

by timg56 on May 16, 2008 10:47 AM PDT reply actions  

I think Dave has got empathy

for the people he is in contact with because they share their blogers passion and they have a lot of need where we are really wealthy. I understand we can´t worry about others but … I never worried if there would be an earthquake or something in Oregon, but now I can do.

Of those powders these muds went out.

by amlmart1 on May 16, 2008 11:01 AM PDT reply actions  

I love you

For some reason, everything you write, sounds like it is from some sort of Blazers Edge Bible. It is truly inspirational.

Oh where oh were could my Jscot be
The cops took him away from me
He's gone to prison so I've got to be good
So I can see my Jscot when I'll leave this blog

by tominhawaii on May 16, 2008 10:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

The problem with your argument

is that those teams were t-a-n-k-i-n-g. Miami sure as hell doesn’t deserve any lottery riches, after rolling out teams made up exclusively of NBDL guys for the last three months of the season—you seriously don’t think wade, marion, and haslem plus a few miscellaneous parts can’t go .500 in a bad eastern conference? They tanked worse than the celts last year; we’re just not paying as much attention to it around these here parts since we were paying attention to playoff standings instead of lottery standings.

Ok, the Wolves, Bucks, and Grizz definitely do suck, and the Clips obviously had a bad year with brand being down all season. Other than those teams, I don’t think any of those teams should’ve gone much below 35 wins. I will feel absolutely no guilt if we get a top 3 pick.

by howlingfantods on May 16, 2008 11:20 AM PDT reply actions  

I don't really want another top 3 pick ...

because I just really want to see what KP does this year. I want to see someone else get pritch-slapped.

But if we were to receiver another gift from the basketball gods, I would not cry for the rest of the league. I would laugh, and lift my glass high.

by bfan on May 16, 2008 1:33 PM PDT reply actions  

Are u crazy???

Bfan, you seriously dont want another top 3 pick and possibly landing Derrick Rose???....

by simon1823 on May 16, 2008 10:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't want

other teams’ fans say “the only reason you’re good is because you got lucky.”

I’d rather that our team’s success be based on hard work, a good strategy, a good culture, and a little bit of luck.

by jamon51 on May 16, 2008 1:55 PM PDT reply actions  

Who cares what other fans say...

You could say that the only reason the Spurs have a dynasty is because David Robinson was injured for a year and they won the right to choose Duncan. There is more to their success than that but you could argue that none of it would happen without luck.

PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04

by tssbro on May 17, 2008 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

I disagree, Dave

The nation, nay, the world, wants a team that can regularly pound Kobe and the L*kers into submission.

by MiledAnimal on May 16, 2008 2:45 PM PDT reply actions  

Huzzah!!!

Agree. Concur. amen and so on

"Be wary of strong drink. It can make you shoot at tax collectors... and miss" Robert A. Heinlein

by 92wastheyear on May 16, 2008 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Altruism is fine so long as it does not help the Sonics!

My hope is that they get bumped down three spots! So that must make me the antithesis of Dave (or just plain mean). If all three lottery spots go to leastern conference teams (except NY) I will be semi-happy. If Portland wins 1, 2 or 3 it gives Kevin Pritchard a bigger pile of chips to bargain with so all the better. I don’t know if there is even a player in the lottery that KP wants. But he can turn sows ears into silk purses at the blink of an eye so it would be fun to watch him work even more.

My final hope is that Golden State does not get one of the three top spots because I think that is the only event that will cause the Blazers to lose a spot.

Aldridge said. "We feel like we can beat any team. We feel like we can beat the Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Mavericks, whoever any night right now, and we'll still be here when those teams get old and their guys retire. We're going to be here for a long time."

by lee3022 on May 16, 2008 8:11 PM PDT reply actions  

Here is how it should go down

The worst 14 teams have to have one of their current player join a best of three tournament of either bowling, badminton, or Bocce. The game played would be chosen by a lottery, to keep teams from having ringers on their roster. The winner of the tournament receives the first pick, and the rest go in order, by their placing in the tournament.

Oh where oh were could my Jscot be
The cops took him away from me
He's gone to prison so I've got to be good
So I can see my Jscot when I'll leave this blog

by tominhawaii on May 16, 2008 10:53 PM PDT reply actions  

I think David Stern should just decide...

who gets to pick in what order. He is so wise and all-knowing that no one would ever be upset with his totally unbiased and fair selections

PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04

by tssbro on May 17, 2008 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

That's a good one

I don’t see any problems with that. It would be a sports writer’s dream. That’s easily 10 extra columns a year.

Hugs are free, please share.

by tominhawaii on May 17, 2008 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

I thought he already did that.

I mean that corner didn’t get bent all by itself, did it? He almost got frost bite from drawing that one card.

"Be wary of strong drink. It can make you shoot at tax collectors... and miss" Robert A. Heinlein

by 92wastheyear on May 17, 2008 8:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Funny, I like it.

PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04

by tssbro on May 18, 2008 8:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

Other options?

Although probably less practical than simply tinkering with the lottery
system to make it more equitable, enforcing penalties against teams
that are blatantly taking would be another option.

Last year, for instance, you could have a neutral doctor examine D. Wade’s
knee (or whatever his problem was) and have it compared to the
Miami doctor/training staff’s decision to sit him for the rest of the season.
Or, similarly, David Robinson’s injury during the season where they secured
the no. 1 pick for Duncan. Etc.

And granted, to prove indisputably that a team is tanking would be next
to impossible, but it could at the very least serve as a minor deterrent for
a team that otherwise has nothing to lose by simply telling someone, or a
few players, to sit for the rest of the season. Which is the number one way to tank
as things stand currently.

by lyleleander on May 17, 2008 3:33 PM PDT reply actions  

It will be interesting to see what the Blazers do in the draft. Do they trade the pick for a veteran that come in and spot Aldridge or Oden. This team does not have many holes other then their youth. At 14, not sure what type of value they can it in terms of someone coming in and making an immediate impact.

by 10starpicks on May 19, 2008 7:42 AM PDT reply actions  

Impressive advertising

Except we have the 1st pick. Not the 14th.

"I never worried if there would be an earthquake or something in Oregon, but now I can do." amlmart1

by Sabonis4Ever on May 19, 2008 10:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

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