Searching for Derek Fisher...
In light of the recent Sergio Rodriguez article and the countless opinions regarding the future of Jarrett Jack (and Petteri Koponen, Steve Blake and Brandon Roy) at the point guard position, I thought it would be interesting to map out what I believe Nate McMillan looks for in a point guard and then make an educated guess at who best matches this profile...
First of all, Nate McMillan is an old school throwback coach who prioritizes efficiency and defense above all else. We get a sense of his need for steady efficienct play in the way he uses Steve Blake. Yes, Nate may have favored Jack in crunchtime, but there was no question that Steve Blake was our half-game horse this year. In my eyes, though, Jarrett Jack was given such a long leash this season because he had shown that he was, or can be, moderately efficient (more so referring to the "get the ball to Zach Randolph" years) and he has the physical tools to become a gifted on-ball defender. This is a stark contrast to Steve Blake (who is an average defender that has pretty much hit his peak) and Sergio Rodriguez (who does not play defense).
In seeing the progression of Martell Webster, we can discern that Nate McMillan believes the difference is made on the defensive end. You don't take a "pure shooter" 6th in the draft and then put him on the shelf until he becomes a defensive stopper, unless you believe that anyone in the NBA on any given night can light up the scoreboard. To be more cliche - Nate probably goes to bed at night saying "Offense gets the glory, but defense wins the game..." (See also: Oden over Durant)
So, who are the top defensive point guards in the NBA? Who are the players that fit Nate's mold for the prototypical point guard?
Who wouldn't want these guys: Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and Tony Parker... Not so much that they are "Nate's Type" but no coach would turn down an opportunity to land these 3 guys. Likewise, their respective franchises would need a full fifth of Bacardi 151 and a couple trips to Seattle in Rasheed Wallace's "we smoked it all up" Yellow Hummer before they let these guys get away...
Near perfect examples (but unlikely to land here): Chauncey Billups, Derek Fisher, and Andre Miller... Billups seems like Nate's dream as a point guard, which is even more interesting because Jack was frequently compared to a young Chauncey during the 06-07 season. He's a floor general, he distributes, scores and plays defense, but he's probably the fourth "least touchable" point in the league. Derek Fisher is prototypical in that he's a great on-ball defender (led the league in Charges Drawn this year) and has a steady hand in the offense, but he's the same age as Harrison Ford. Andre Miller is also an example of a steady point guard who plays better defense than he's given credit for. This past season, Miller posted an average PER that was 6 points better than his opponent but after his playoff run, it'd be a tough trade to pull off. Is Sweet Lou the future for the 76ers? If so, that does give us a window of opportunity.
Solid options (and arguably attainable): Jason Terry, TJ Ford/Jose Calderon, Devon Harris, Monta Ellis/Baron Davis... I guess call this the "fatal flaw" category. Baron Davis has massive contract demands that will basically force GS to choose on of the two. Ellis isn't a great defender, but he has the speed to match up with the elite point guards of the league and if Davis is the casualty, then it seems like a trade with the foundation of Raef's expiring contract, a young talented player and a couple draft picks could make it work. Calderon and TJ Ford are in a similar situation in Toronto. Yes, TJ has injury concerns (of the spinal variety!) but let's face it- we're already going to need some luck on the injury front to make our title hopes become a reality. It was the same way with the '76 Blazers. Ford's speed and ability to drive would be a positive, and he also posted a postive PER against his opponent. Jason Terry would be an interesting (and possible acquisition) if we were set on Brandon Roy playing the point. Terry could not man up on the CP3 and D-Will's of the world, but he'd be a strong outside presence next to Roy.
It might just work: Sebastian Telfair, Raymond Felton, Mike Conley Jr/Kyle Lowry, Chris Duhon, Raja Bell/Leandro Barbosa... This category is drawing at straws and going on potential, with a few exceptions. If there's a fire sale in Phoenix, it seems like Barbosa could be available for the right package, maybe even Bell too. The former would give us a speedy guard to play opposite Roy and at least give us some hope at a fastbreak attack. Duhon is probably the most available of any point guard in the NBA, but I hardly think he's an upgrade. Memphis has a slew of young point guards and a probable chance at grabbing another one (Derrick Rose) but none of them have proven anything. Same with Telfair and Felton. I may get blasted for this, but the only difference I see in Tony Parker and a player like Sebastian Telfair is environment and work ethic. With his speed, Telfair could be a top tier point in the NBA, but he has never "figured it out." Felton averaged 14.4 points and 7.4 assists per game this season and we've seen a substantial improvement in his game over the past 3 seasons. Although not a good three-point shooter, he's a step up athletically over Steve Blake...
After looking at players and stats all morning, I definitely think our point guard situation could be worse, but it could also substantially improve... What does it take to land a player in the "Solid Options" category? Do any of the young guys listed look interesting?
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Great rundown
However, I’d move Felton into a more untouchable category.
by robrun2 on May 13, 2008 12:49 PM PDT 0 recs
Yea I am not so sure
that a defensive point guard defense is necessary, or even that Nate thinks it is. While I think that your examples and classifications of players are right on, a point guard who plays excellent defense is not as necessary as a PG who plays good offense.
If you look to the different defensive styles the Spurs have been using in the Hornets series, you can clearly see what works and what doesn’t work. When the Spurs were playing tough point guard defense (with double teams on CP3) they lost by large margins. When they started using their best defensive players on the other guys on the Hornets, all of a sudden they are winning by large margins.
Teams figured this out a while ago with Steve Nash, and really the only point guard in the league that I feel this strategy doesn’t work for is Tony Parker. While I do not think that he is the best pg, if you give him his space, he can carry the team. But at the same time you can’t design a team around one other team, or a single player.
We will have the ability to stop anything in the paint with Greg,. Martell really is playing a lot better defense this year, not to mention letting LMA use his more natural defense of guarding just inside the perimeter, instead of hounding the paint with Joel. The only really glaring defensive issue we have is at the SG, and we are obviously not going to do anything about that, with both Roy and Rudy being glaring defensive weaknesses, but absolutely necessary offensive pieces. While it would seem natural that we would then need some sort of defensive guard, the way to win games is net improvement.
While the defensive stats for Chauncey, Andre, and Derek are skewed (since they are playing against the starters) none seem to make a marked contribution in being defensive stoppers, and their presence on the offense is much more noticeable (except Miller for some reason, and his defensive stats also look horrible, no idea why). I would say that being a perimeter defender is not nearly as important as being agressive offensively on the perimeter. Despite what Nate may feel about defensive point guard skills, team-building is done by KP, and he has to understand that from a PG perspective it is much more important to have an good offensive PG, then an excellent defensive PG. (All stats from 82games.com)
(Woody)
by TheOdenator on May 13, 2008 1:25 PM PDT 0 recs
I would argue a couple points here...
First off, it’s tough to say Shooting Guard is our weakest defensive position when Brandon Roy got a couple votes for Second Team All-NBA Defensive Team. Granted he didn’t “make the team” but Carmelo Anthony and Joe Johnson can both testify that his defense improved dramatically from year 1 to year 2…
Furthermore, I would argue that by matching up Bruce Bowen and Chris Paul (like the Spurs did in games 1 & 2), the Spurs sealed their own fate. Once they put Tony Parker on him, who has substantially more speed, and put Bruce Bowen on Peja, their defense improved dramatically. I agree that we do not need a “defensive stopper” point guard, because there just flat out aren’t that many, but having someone with the speed to match opposing guards is incredibly important.
Right now, players like Jamaal Tinsley, Raymond Felton, Nate Robinson, and TJ Ford (circa 06-07) absolutely kill us. It’d be nice if we could at least cover the PG position (by covering, as my analysis implied, I’m saying that ideally our PG would have a higher PER than his opponent on a per game basis but we would be fine if this position was equal)...
"I was a huge Dr. J fan, so I was upset when Maurice Lucas and Bill Walton beat up on him in the Championship. But now Portland has a good young nucleus and with Greg coming on next year, they'll be a team I'll follow throughout the season." Obama
by RoyGoesTheDynamite on
May 13, 2008 2:18 PM PDT
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Well allow me to retort...
The teams that stop players like Felton, Nate Rob, Tinsley, and Ford are the teams that don’t have to be constantly watching the rim and playing soft so that they won’t just get blown past on the way to the rim. Just by having an immense paint presence our perimter defense will get better.
And the fact that it is ridiuclous that we should build our roster around stopping any of these players, as none have anything even close to resembling a supporting cast on their teams. (Except for 06-07 Ford, but saying that he’s not as much of an issue anymore is a bit of an understatement).
And just two quick points on your first two paragraphs: Chris Paul’s field goal shooting has increased considerably in the 2 Hornet losses, while his assist rate has plummeted, meaning that Chris Paul is much better for his team when he is getting the ball into his teammates hands, rather than taking the shots himself, and when the Spurs stop that from happening (by guarding his teammates rather than himself) the Hornets are much worse as a team.
And finally, Baron Davis got a vote as well, I will grant you that Brandon is twice the defensive player that Baron is.
(Woody)
by TheOdenator on
May 13, 2008 2:53 PM PDT
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Who let Stephen A. Smith in here?
The teams that stop players like Felton, Nate Rob, Tinsley, and Ford are the teams that don’t have to be constantly watching the rim and playing soft so that they won’t just get blown past on the way to the rim. Just by having an immense paint presence our perimter defense will get better.
For instance, teams like the Denver Nuggets, who have the 06-07 Defensive Player of the Year in Marcus Camby hanging out around the rim? Having Camby down low doesn’t stop ‘Melo and AI from getting ran through like hot Indian food. Having Oden will provide an aspect of intimidation down low (a la Tyson Chandler of the Hornets), but we still need the rest of our team filling lanes and playing dedicated team defense.
The difference is that if you have a point guard dedicated to defense (while still contributing steady offense), you’re center doesn’t have to become an island (think 06-07 Joel Pryzbilla with Randolph down low – remember that?). Instead, he can play help defense, which usually turns into highlight reel blocks… More recently, if either James Posey or Paul Pierce would’ve stayed in front of Lebron, would Kevin Garnett have “Wilson” on his forehead right now (referring to “The Dunk in the 4th quarter last night)?
Also, I’m not saying we should build our defense to stop Jamaal Tinsley (or TJ Ford or Nate Rob, etc) but if on average we’re allowing our opponent’s point guard to 18.8 points and 8.3 assists per game (per 82games.com), then these are inherent problems that are going to be exposed in the postseason (or prevent us from getting there altogether)... In thinking about “the next step,” we’re going to have to face Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Tony Parker, Steve Nash, Allen Iverson, Jason Kidd’s corpse, Rafer Alston (not even a joke there), and/or the Derek Fisher/Jordan Farmar combo and, more importantly, we’re going to need to find away to slow them…
If we can’t stop Jamaal Tinsley, how will we stop these guys? Should we, as your logic seems to suggest, just let them score at will and slow everyone else?
As for Baron Davis, I’m not going to mince words here. He’s not a stud defender by any means, but he does guard 4 positions in the Warriors system, which is impressive and probably worth one vote. I once saw him bench 750 pounds and then eat live baby…
"I was a huge Dr. J fan, so I was upset when Maurice Lucas and Bill Walton beat up on him in the Championship. But now Portland has a good young nucleus and with Greg coming on next year, they'll be a team I'll follow throughout the season." Obama
by RoyGoesTheDynamite on
May 13, 2008 3:44 PM PDT
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18.8 points per game?
Thats not so bad. On average an NBA team’s point guards score 19.3 points per game.
A lot of people seem to think that the Blazers are very bad at stopping point guards from scoring. In reality, though, the blazer’s defense against point guards is average. We do allow opposing point guards to get a relatively high amount of assists with a relatively low number of turnovers, but I think that is something that the whole team needs to work together to correct rather than something that can be fixed just by getting a better defensive point guard.
by trk on
May 13, 2008 8:47 PM PDT
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True
But average isn’t good. You don’t visit the coast, then ask where you could get some average seafood. I could have went anywhere with this analogy. It is just that in an hour or two, I’ll have fish for dinner.
"Reality is for people who can't handle Blazers Edge." - MiledAnimal
by tominhawaii on
May 13, 2008 9:13 PM PDT
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Also, consider pace
We were next to last in the NBA in game pace, making for less possessions, less shots, making it more likely averages would be lower than normal. Taking that into account, I don’t think being at the average is that good. Not horrible, but still a problem, and probably a worse problem than it looks with that stat.
Even if 19 points a game doesn’t seem like much, it was clear that opposing PGs were running us roughshod up in our damn stupid fat faces. We just couldn’t handle ‘da quickness.
I agree that the team will have to work together to limit the damage a Chris Paul does in the future, with funneling and smart defense and Oden and LMA being beastly down low. PG troubles were a concern this year, but perhaps next season it will be solved by one Greg P. Oden, Esq.
Mortimer
by Mortimer on
May 14, 2008 3:56 AM PDT
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Baron Davis
and Monte Ellis should be upgrade on your scale. We could lose jack and still have another guy who could get to the basket. Our shooting would improve and with Oden coming in next year I don’t think our defense would suffer much at all.
Monte Ellis would double our fast break points and drastically increase our points in the paint. Everyone in the west is getting hurt by quick point guards. I don’t think there is a point guard alive who can stop Chris Paul.
Plus, with either of those guys we would be much more entertaining to watch.
If somebody hits you with an object you should beat the hell out of them.-Charles Barkley
by Winchester on May 13, 2008 5:33 PM PDT 0 recs








