Boom or bust?

by Steve The Hedge on May 12, 2008 4:15 PM PDT

OK, I'll admit it...I'm bored. In an effort to kill the last 30 minutes of my work day, I wanted to open the floor for speculation on this year's crop of talent. Specifically, who's a winner and who's a bust. Many 1st rounders will go on to lead productive, but unspectacular NBA careers. A few will rise to the top and many talented youngsters will never translate their potential to the NBA game for one reason or another. Now is your chance to foretell the future and predict the fate of people you've never met in a matter that is truely irrelevant. Feel free to include your sleeper 2nd rounder winners too.

Winners

Derrick Rose
DeAndre Jordan

Busts

OJ Mayo- headcase IMO
Brook Lopez- token 7ft taken early.
Kevin Love- in a game of athletes, he's not one.
Chase Budinger- all hop, no game.

Sleeper

Nathan Jawai- guy's as big as a truck (1st rounder on NBADraft.net)
Joey Dorsey- Rebounding machine and garbage man.

Only one more week until the draft lottery. One more week. One more week. One more week. Arrggg...finger cramp.

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Wow I cant disagree with you more

in some respects, Jordan is the biggest bust risk in the top 10. He has little or no BBIQ and will take 4-5 years of hard work with a great coach to even be a viable starter.

Lopez has a great touch and moves already and will be able to contribute pretty early. He is not super athletic but he can work on that.

Mayo will be a good player and how many other headcases (which I dont think he is) have gone on to good careers? Marbury, Artest, Sheed, Spreewell to name a few.

Love will take a while to come around if he ever does as it will take him a while to adjust to the speed and athleticism of the NBA game at best a borderline starter, 6th man.

Budinger I see like a poor mans Dunleavey, but at least he wont get drafted third.

Dorsey may end up like a Ben Wallace type player but he has little or no O skills.

My shot is Lester Hudson as a sleeper, although he is a bit more known than some as he was one of the leading scorers in the NCAA last year.

My deep sleeper is Alexis Ajinca as he is slated to go late 1st round and I think that he will be able to produce the same as a top 10 player.

by SpyderRyder on May 12, 2008 4:32 PM PDT 1 recs

Lopez and Jordan

Lopez is much more skilled and polished than Jordan. Jordan is the high risk, high reward pick. Lopez is less of a gamble IMO. I agree with Spyder on OJ Mayo. Other than that I mostly agree with Steve the Hedge.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on May 12, 2008 4:36 PM PDT up 0 recs

Lopez excellent

I have to agree with you on Lopez, I watched him tear up my Ducks and the rest of the Pac-10, and if we didn’t have Oden, that might have been the direction I would have wanted the Blazers to go in.

There are no stupid questions, only stupid people

by blazersfan50 on May 12, 2008 8:21 PM PDT up 0 recs

Artest, Marbury, and Sprewell had good careers?

As what, professional cancer cells?

by MiledAnimal on May 13, 2008 10:45 AM PDT up 0 recs

Yeah

Career Stats/Career High
Marbury: 19.7ppg, 3reb, 7.8ast,/ 23.4ppg, 2.6reb, 8.7ast
Artest: 16.1ppg, 5reb, 3.2ast, 2.1Stl/20.5ppg, 5.8reb, 3.5ast, 2.3stl
Sprewell: 18.3ppg, 4rebs, 4ast, 4 AS games/24.2ppg, 4.6reb, 6.3ast

Pretty good to me

by SpyderRyder on May 13, 2008 10:57 AM PDT up 0 recs

Spyder, ya gotta look up from your stat book sometimes

Marbury: Takes good teams head-first into the dumpster.

Artest: A serial head case.

Sprewell: Known as a choker.

I’ll put it to you another way: Would you want any of these guys in his prime on our Blazers?

by MiledAnimal on May 13, 2008 11:06 AM PDT up 0 recs

Yes

Artest would help the Blazers in a big way.

An in prime Spree is a good player also.

Marbury not so much, though he did have some good years… just not in NY.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on May 13, 2008 11:10 AM PDT up 0 recs

Yeah

Sprewell was not that bad. He just choked his coach, beyond that one incident, I’ve never heard anything bad about him. I know it is a huge incident, I just don’t think it means he’s a head case.

"Reality is for people who can't handle Blazers Edge." - MiledAnimal

by tominhawaii on May 13, 2008 11:19 AM PDT up 0 recs

What about the CULTURE?

CultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCulture STARBURY, ARGGH, IT’S A STARBURY!!CultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCulture RON-RON, RUN, IT’S A RON-RON!! CultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCulture SPREE, OH NO, IT’S A SPREE!! CultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCultureCulture

by MiledAnimal on May 13, 2008 5:10 PM PDT up 0 recs

So what is a "good" career?

I think is the question. I stated that they had good careers, winners? no but as for points, rebs, asts stls and possibly the most important stat $$ I would have to say that they have had “succesful” careers.

You are trying to make an entirely different point and while I agree with you that none of those players would ever suit up for a second in a Blazer uni, that was not the pont I was trying to make.

Just because a scientist does not become a Nobel prize winner, or a writer a Pullitzer does not mean that they have not had a “good” career, they are just not considered with the “greats” as players.

Like I said this all rotates on the question of them having a “good” career vs. would they be on the Blazers which are 2 totally different questions and in that respect we are BOTH right, yo animal :)

by SpyderRyder on May 13, 2008 11:16 PM PDT up 0 recs

Stats are only important in the context of the team

Zach had great stats, but he is not a great player. Compare him to someone like Luke Walton or Victor Khryapa, who have mediocre stats but whom everyone lauds for being “glue guys” and team players. I’ll take the latter every time.

When it comes to star players, they have great stats AND they are great team players. So yeah, I can agree with you to a point.

As for the other stuff that made Starbury, Ron-Ron, and Spree infamous, it is absolutely destructive to the team. It obliterates whatever value the players may have on the court.

by MiledAnimal on May 15, 2008 2:43 PM PDT up 0 recs

Those guys are professional Losers with a capitol L.

by bfan on May 13, 2008 10:56 PM PDT up 0 recs

Love

Love will be good. I don’t think he’ll be great, but his passing skills are off the tether ball pole. He can be an impact player off the bench. He’s too chubby and slow to be a starter, in my opinion.

"Reality is for people who can't handle Blazers Edge." - MiledAnimal

by tominhawaii on May 12, 2008 5:44 PM PDT 0 recs

agreement on Love

DL is going to be very good. The last pre-lottery mock draft I saw had Love going to the PTB at 13. If Bob W knew anything, it was that a team cannot have enough quality bigs. Once Love sheds his baby-fat, and has a few seasons under his belt, watch out.

I really hope KP isnt as trigger happy about making a trade as many Bedgers are, and suspect he is going to give Blake a chance to play with Oden, Fernandez and our already established core, as he intended to see last year.

If you dont talk to your cats about catnip, who will?

by bow4meow on May 13, 2008 8:55 AM PDT up 0 recs

I agree

I only want a trade if it thins the roster to create more playing time for all the young guys.

"Reality is for people who can't handle Blazers Edge." - MiledAnimal

by tominhawaii on May 13, 2008 11:02 AM PDT up 0 recs

yuck...

DeAndre Jordan is far from a winner, he was in the dog house most of the year and he was a blue chipper, so I dunno about him, definately don’t want to see him in a Blazer Jersey… Though I did have us picking him at the begining of the year, but now, please no.

I’ve been saying this forever it feels like, but OJ Mayo=JR Rider, I will wince and feel sorrow for whatever team ends up drafting him.

This whole draft seems very high risk, it could be one of those drafts where the best player ends up being a 2nd rounder ala Michael Redd. I think Oden easily has the heads up for Rookie of the Year, with Fernandez having a legitimate shot as well.

And here are my sleepers….
Shan Foster SG Vanderbilt
JR Giddens SG New Mexico
Brandon Rush SF Kansas
Ty Lawson PG UNC

Everytime Raef checks into a game, an angel gets its wings.

by Outlaw is Rejector on May 12, 2008 6:02 PM PDT 0 recs

I agree with you on Rush

He seems like a very safe, solid 2nd round pick.

by Sabonis4Ever on May 12, 2008 6:25 PM PDT up 0 recs

That is a horrible comparison

between Mayo and Rider, horrible. Mayo scored a 29 on his ACT about a 1350 SAT equivilent, Rider probably scored a 29 on his SAT. The only thing he has gotten in trouble with the law is riding in a car that had some pot in it. Tell me that you dont know someone or you haven’t been in a car yourself with pot in it (this is Oregon.)

Please see:
http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/2/23/203657/573
again.

by SpyderRyder on May 13, 2008 12:31 AM PDT up 0 recs

Horrible?

I don’t think ‘horrible’ is a very fair or accurate rebuttal to what I said out of pure opinion.

In no way was I comparing OJ Mayo’s intelligence to JR Rider’s, and you have no right to do so either, especially with a statement like “Rider probably scored a 29 on his SAT.”.

My point simple is that OJ shares various character traits with JR, and it;’s those traits that eventually lead to JR’s exhile from not only Portland, but the conscious of the NBA.

Spyder I respect you a ton on here, but you gotta be high. I never mentioned drugs, nor would I have.

Everytime Raef checks into a game, an angel gets its wings.

by Outlaw is Rejector on May 13, 2008 3:15 AM PDT up 0 recs

I Have to agree with Spyder

Mayo isn’t anything even remotely close to JR Rider.

Explain why you think Mayo is such a head case…...I’ve never seen it.

Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game

by iDea on May 13, 2008 7:28 AM PDT up 0 recs

Rider was a huge head case

with VERY severe issues. I don’ t know that Mayo has the same issues, but he certainly does have a lot of smoke following him. I don’t believe we have the tools to accurately judge whether there’s truth or not and any team looking into him would be wise to do some serious research. If he falls and KP passes him up, you know that he’s a guy you really don’t want.

Here's to being hated. Come on #1 pick!

by ratbastird on May 13, 2008 10:27 AM PDT up 0 recs

You have your opinion

and I have my opinion, but I dont feel that your assumptions have any base in the facts. You need to read some more into the situation

Rider is a sick man and has had multiple run-ins with the law.

Now read these articles and come back and see if you can tell me that “OJ shares various character traits with JR”

http://media.www.dailytrojan.com/media/storage/paper679/news/2007/09/11/Sports/When-Nobodys.Watching.O.j.Mayo.Not.Who.You.Think.He.Is-2960680.shtml
Here are some highlights:
“It’s funny how comfortable our society has become with making assumptions about people based on what they see on TV or read in publications…..............For someone with as much natural talent as Mayo, his work ethic is astounding….............If you look around to find a coach, or at least someone putting the bug in his ear to practice more, you won’t find one.

Mayo doesn’t smile on the court, he only speaks when there is an on-court matter that needs to be resolved, and he practices with a meticulous perfectionism difficult to comprehend.

You ask him about his long days in the gym, however, and he’ll shrug off their significance.

“[The biggest benefit] is probably just getting in shape,” he said. “Getting up and down the floor – it’s better than nothing.”

If Mayo’s practice routine is better than nothing, nothing must be a pretty remarkable state of being….....................
After my third night watching Mayo tear up the court adjacent to the one he hopes will be his personal playground come November, I biked back down Figueroa wondering how many athletes have been unfairly labeled as having an attitude problem.

It was 11 p.m. and I had finally spoken with Mayo after watching him play for three nights. I figured the chance to talk with him would have come an hour earlier, when the lights were turned out in the auxiliary gym. You couldn’t see your own hand.

Instead, I shuffled out, sat in a chair in the hallway and listened for 40 minutes to the constant rhythm of a lone basketball bouncing on the court, interrupted by a “swoosh” every 10 seconds.

The lights never came back on, but Mayo didn’t care. He didn’t need light to know where the basket was.

And I no longer need convincing to wish him the success he is destined to achieve. “

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/pac10/2007-11-07-usc-mayo-focus_N.htm

“Mayo, a 6-5 freshman guard from Huntington, W.Va., considered by some analysts to be the top player in his class since he was in seventh grade, might have been expected to arrive at USC with an attitude and an entourage.

He came with neither.

“The impressions he’s made on campus have been very refreshing,” USC coach Tim Floyd says. “O.J. was kind of sheltered from the media since the seventh grade, and he has been painted with a broad brush to be something he is not. We’ve taken the shackles off, and I think he has handled himself very well with the media and with others. Those who have spent time with him have walked away very impressed.”

Mayo, who turned 20 this week, says, “Yes, sir” and, “No, sir” and conducts the kind of thoughtful, interesting conversation that sets him apart from many college basketball freshmen ….....................”I’m just a ballplayer. Am I a competitive ballplayer? Yeah. Do I want to win? Do I really want to work harder than anyone? Yeah. But as a person, I’m just like the next man. I’m no better than the next man. I’m no better than the next student or the next person. I just have a God-given ability to play basketball, and I want to use that to the utmost to support my family and support myself.

“I’m no better than you,” Mayo says. “I’m no better than the man on the corner with a ‘Hungry’ sign. I just have a talent, and I want to use it.”

did he make a bad decision to take some money? Yes, but if you were given this gift, your mother struggled to make ends meet, your father was nonexistent in your life, in and out of jail and someone came to you and offered you some money what would you do? Now you and I have the luxury of sitting here discussing these players futures on our Macbooks,on our high speed internet or at our nice job, but if we didnt have all these luxuries both you and I would probably do the exact same thing as Mayo.

When I first started looking at the draft projections in the fall, I was TOTALLY anti-Mayo like you, but I dug and dug more into the situation and found the truth in the matter and now I think that he would be the best player that we could pick in this draft. I see Rose as a much better passer and athlete, but I see Mayo as a comparable defender but a MUCH better shooter and better able to work off the ball. I see Rose as someone who needs the ball more than Mayo and should take longer to develop than Mayo who should be able to come in play good D and shoot a good clip from 3pt land.

by SpyderRyder on May 13, 2008 11:41 AM PDT up 0 recs

Mayo?

I’ve always preferred Miracle Whip salad dressing. A sandwich just isn’t a sandwich without the fresh taste of Miracle Whip salad dressing.

"Reality is for people who can't handle Blazers Edge." - MiledAnimal

by tominhawaii on May 13, 2008 12:02 PM PDT up 0 recs

I'm with you on Spam

But Miracle Whip? Ugh! There’s only one decent mayonnaise around, and that’s Best Foods (Hellmann’s to you Easterners).

Do you put Miracle Whip on your Spam? Talk about a food oxymoron!

by MiledAnimal on May 13, 2008 5:15 PM PDT up 0 recs

I do

When I fry it and then make a sandwich with it. Spam is more of a breakfast meat to me though. I don’t like how mayonnaise gets all clumpy looking, like an old ladies thigh.

"Reality is for people who can't handle Blazers Edge." - MiledAnimal

by tominhawaii on May 13, 2008 5:29 PM PDT up 0 recs

Cheese Tom!

Don’t you know that it’s eating Spam that gives thighs that clumpy look? And furthermore, Spam is no respector of gender. So watch that Spam consumption.

"We comin along." Travis Outlaw

by annthefan on May 13, 2008 5:43 PM PDT up 0 recs

The main difference between Miracle Whip and mayonnaise

is the sweeteners: high-fructose corn syrup and sugar are the fourth and fifth ingredients, respectively, of Miracle Whip. Blecch! MW will put that cottage cheese on your thighs in no time, Tom.

by MiledAnimal on May 13, 2008 5:44 PM PDT up 0 recs

I am getting hungry for spam, though...

by MiledAnimal on May 13, 2008 5:45 PM PDT up 0 recs

Miracle Whip is the bomba!!

I like to make roast beef sandwich with cheese, MC and horse radish. That my friends …totally rocks

"Be wary of strong drink. It can make you shoot at tax collectors... and miss" Robert A. Heinlein

by 92wastheyear on May 13, 2008 7:58 PM PDT up 0 recs

I like me some Mayo

I thought OJ was a bit of a head case when he was in High School, but I have been watching him all year and I think the kid is going to be fantastic! you can be worried about the whole payola thing that is going on right now, but I wouldnt blink. He’s a kid that wants to be a winner, he is a lock down defender, and he’s a all around skilled player… dare I say he could be our best athletic player (outlaws just as atheletic, but Mayo will be a better player)

by Blazermaniac77 on May 12, 2008 9:06 PM PDT 0 recs

I like Mayo too

I just think he’s a shooting guard and we don’t need another one. I can’t fault a kid for taking free stuff. He’s just a kid, he’s been down on his luck, it’s tough – so tough.

"Reality is for people who can't handle Blazers Edge." - MiledAnimal

by tominhawaii on May 12, 2008 9:17 PM PDT up 0 recs

I'm just glad Berman isn't doing the NBA draft too ...

because I can’t handle anymore “hold the mayo” jokes.

by bfan on May 12, 2008 9:39 PM PDT up 0 recs

I think he may be able to become a better pg

Than anyone in the draft with the exception of Rose. People talk about how Westbrook is a good defender, Mayo will be better in the NBA, he’s got the size and athleticism to guard any PG in the league, and if not right out of college in a few years he will.

by Blazermaniac77 on May 13, 2008 1:11 AM PDT up 0 recs

Good question.

Locks:
-Derrick Rose (wow)
-Michael Beasley (double wow, but makes me nervous)
-Russell Westbrook (does one thing REALLY well-D, has lots of upside with other things-O)

Solid players (not stars):
-Love (fundamentally solid, big man can see the floor)
-Brook Lopez (also fundamentally solid, legit size, moves very well)
-Chris Douglas-Roberts (smart player, great mid-range game, can’t shoot FTs)
-Brandon Rush (solid D, good shooter, very smart)

Busts:
-Eric Gordon (too small, Nate Robinson without the nasty)
-Chase Budinger (stick to volleyball)

Sleepers:
JOE ALEXANDER (late bloomer, awesome post/mid-range game, can jump out of the gym, go-to player in crunch time)
-Courtney Lee (overlooked because he’s a senior, does everything well, great character, a lot like Brandon Roy)
-Mario Chalmers (shut-down defender, makes big shots when they count, is from my hometown-Anchorage, AK)

by bfan on May 12, 2008 9:38 PM PDT 0 recs

KP on radio says he thinks this draft is very deep...

Obviously KP can not mention specifics names at this point, but he was on the new 95.5 FM sports radio this afternoon talking a little about this draft. KP said that he feels that at pick 13, if that is where Portland ends up, the Blazers would be landing an impact player. KP went on to say that even teams drafting in the high 20’s will have the chance to land impact players. That being said, I feel very positive that Portland will be able to manuever to get a player who will be a “piece” of the puzzle.

Winners:
PG Derrick Rose (very obvious)
PF Michael Beasley (obvious)
G OJ Mayo (NBA playmaker)
G Eric Gordon (NBA playmaker)
FC Brook Lopez (refined skills, great size, high BBIQ)
PF Darrell Arthur (plays like Vin Baker when he was young)
GF Brandon Rush (more than solid addition to any NBA team)
GF Chris Douglas-Roberts (this dude can drive and score, athleticism is impressive)
F Donte Green (this is one upside player that is very exciting short and long term)

Busts:
C Deandre Jordan (time consuming project)
PF Anthony Randolph (very underdeveloped but very athletic, high risk project)
G Russell Westbrook (poor man’s Ben Gordon)
FC Marreese Speights (just another big who really won’t have impact)
G Ty Lawson (doesn’t seem to be anything special)
C JaVale McGee (drafted because he has

Sleepers:
SG Kyle Weaver (will be drafted as a defensive stopper)
PF DJ White (every year there are a few tough-guy type PF who slip to early 2nd round that are impact players in the NBA, DJ White I think is a can’t miss gamer picks 28-38)
FC Robin Lopez (this is the center you draft later in the first if you don’t want a bust)
FC Nathan Jawai (huge body can be gotten in the 2nd round, and he is allegedly very athletic for a 7’ 280pounder)

It looks like there are a few international prospects, but who can really tell on those guys? We don’t see them enough, but you know teams will spend their picks on them.

by Portland Dynasty on May 12, 2008 9:59 PM PDT 0 recs

What about

Jerryd Bayless?

"Reality is for people who can't handle Blazers Edge." - MiledAnimal

by tominhawaii on May 12, 2008 11:31 PM PDT up 0 recs

I think Jerryd Bayless will BUST...

T-I-H, I know a lot of people like the idea of Arizona guard Bayless, but I think he is going to be a bust. I watched him a handful of times this year and thought he wasn’t all that special. I left him off because I didn’t want to call him a winner or bust, he is just a mid-tier prospect to me. Will probably be a rotation player, but I don’t think he will be a PG or scorer in this league, leaving him doing what? exactly.

by Portland Dynasty on May 13, 2008 2:59 PM PDT up 0 recs

Yeah

I don’t know jack about him, I just see him as 3rd on a lot of mock drafts and not on your list or bfan’s list.

"Reality is for people who can't handle Blazers Edge." - MiledAnimal

by tominhawaii on May 13, 2008 3:12 PM PDT up 0 recs

Richard Hendrix

Ilike what you have done, but I would add Richard Hendrix to your sleeper type in the same mold as a DJ White/Carlos Boozer/Leon Powe type.

by The Graduate on May 13, 2008 12:40 AM PDT up 0 recs

Hendrix is a likely late first rounder, some where in the 20's.

I think he is solid, but I only saw him for one game this year. Drafted where he is likely be drafted, he won’t get too much of a shot early to impact, but seeminly will make a decent rotation player.

I left Kevin Love of the list, and I meant to put him in with the winners. I feel that K-Love is going to be a very important piece for whoever gets him. Love is 6’10” and 270lbs and very smart and skilled. Love doesn’t get much love from Oregonians or many scouts, but he is going to prove a lot of people wrong who are doubters.

by Portland Dynasty on May 13, 2008 3:03 PM PDT up 0 recs

I agree about westbrook

I hope the kids does well, I just don’t think he is as good as people think.

by Blazermaniac77 on May 13, 2008 1:13 AM PDT up 0 recs

Westbrook

is not going to be a bust. Probably.

If somebody hits you with an object you should beat the hell out of them.-Charles Barkley

by Winchester on May 13, 2008 2:13 AM PDT up 0 recs

can't argue with any of

these thoughts…it would be great to actually track who is right in a year or 2 or 3,,,because i haven’t seen all of then play an actual game., i’ve seen almost all of them but…you know what i mean. my picks…

locks: D rose,,,B Lopez…OJ Mayo…

busts: Beasley (zach randolph with athleticism…it depends largely on which organization draft him…could see him going to the clippers).

I actually need to see which teams these players go to or at least in what order the teams pick,,,otherwise this is purely based on speculation

uwe blab

by midget on May 13, 2008 1:40 AM PDT 0 recs

Absolutely

I see Beasley disappointing some poor team. Hopefully the Knicks….....

Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game

by iDea on May 13, 2008 7:32 AM PDT up 0 recs

I suppose it depends on what you call a bust...

I agree in that Beasley will never lead a team to a championship as the main man, but Zach Randolph with a SIGNIFICANT upgrade in athleticism sounds pretty good to me, and most teams in the league. Plus, Beasley actually plays some, if not a lot of, defense.

by The Graduate on May 13, 2008 9:35 AM PDT up 0 recs

I'm underwhelmed

I think there will be a lot of pseudo-stars, but I’m unconvinced this is a draft deep with superstar talent. Rose and Beasley included.

I think OJ Mayo has bad judgment, age notwithstanding. One incident, ok chalk it up to a mistake. Several incidents, eh now we’ve got something deeper. I’m not sure why some of you are so quick to write off mulitple instances of poor judgment, especially considering what we’ve gone through over the last seveal years. OJ Mayo knows taking money as a college athlete is totally unacceptable, and he did it anyway, possibly screwing over many others besides himself. Is this like the deal where Zach goes around town drag racing, sexually assaulting women (allegedly), lying to the team, brandishing firearms, punching teammates, etc and he’s not viewed as such a bad guy by Portland fans? Man, we’re a forgiving lot.

PS. Where are Mayo’s parents??

Love needs some serious work on his body and while I think he has the skills of a good NBA passer, I’m not sure what else he’s going to contribute. Nothing immediately, that’s for sure.

Brook Lopez shot 46% last season. As a 7-footer who shoots from the paint over college guys who are mostly shorter than he is, that is extremely worrisome.

I’m underwhelmed by the Arizona guys too.

Watch out for Rush, he’s my sleeper along with some of you. I think Ty Lawson has a chance too.

by leeroyjenkins on May 13, 2008 10:14 AM PDT 0 recs

Deep draft, but not top heavy

Other than Rose and Beasley, the lottery picks aren’t very impressive. I’m not excited by any of the shoot-first tweener guards (Mayo, Bayless, Gordon). Brook Lopez seems to be the consensus best center in the draft and he might end up as a descent player, but he doesn’t look anywhere near as good as the top center in last year’s draft (Oden). Kevin Love has the potential to do well in the NBA, but only if he is able to get in shape and stay that way. Jordan, Westbrook, and Batum are all projects that probably won’t be able to contribute much in the next few years. Danilo Gallinari is the most accomplished international player (other than Pekovic, who says he doesn’t want to play in the NBA), but he is still well below Rudy’s level at the moment and I am not convinced that his game will transfer over to the NBA very well.

However, even though the lottery doesn’t look very strong this year there are still some pretty good prospects to be found near the end of the first round. Some of the best players on the best teams (CDR, Rush, Chalmers) look like they may be going in the 20’s. These are players who I don’t think will become stars, but who do look like they will at least be solid role players. Basically, the difference between the #3 pick and the #30 pick looks a lot smaller this year then one might expect, especially if you are looking for good role player types rather than projects who could potentially become stars but also have a high chance of being busts.

by trk on May 13, 2008 5:30 PM PDT 0 recs