Rudy's impending arrival raises questions

by BlazersOrBust on Apr 3, 2008 3:46 PM PDT

That 90% figure sounds like savvy media-work to me (hat tip to SpyderRyder for the timely diary immediately below) -- Rudy Fernandez will be a member of the Portland Trail Blazers next year.

However...he just may arrive as a player with a few strings attached. This has recent historical precedent; it's fairly common knowledge that Yi only acquiesced to playing in Milwaukee after receiving a playing time guarantee from Bucks management. According to the article cited in SR's diary, Rudy is requesting significant playing time to offset the economic losses he'll be suffering by coming in on the rookie salary scale.

Which raises the question...to what extent should Blazers brass take into account Fernandez's desire? If Rudy says, "I'm not coming unless you guarantee me 20-25 minutes a night", should KP and Nate capitulate? On the one hand, it sends a lousy message to the rest of the team that minutes ought to be earned and not doled out like Middle-Age indulgences; on the other hand, Rudy has every right to lay out his own terms and put the ball in the Blazers' court, especially considering the money he's leaving on the table. Does the potential exist for KP and Nate to clash on this issue? -- KP might very well be of a different mind about guaranteed playing time than the coaching staff.

Considering Sergio's somewhat tenuous situation here and Rudy coming over with certain court-time expectations that may not be met, I could see our Spanish contingent being quite upset with the red-and-black next year.

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I would trade them both

and try to get someone proven who earns their minutes if those demands were put to me. I guess that's why I'm not a GM.

by fatwansaboni on Apr 3, 2008 3:56 PM PDT 0 recs

Dangerous

If you're trading someone because you need to get rid of him for some reason, you'll get nothing but lowball offers... and then you'll end up taking one. I salute the Milwaukee Bucks for taking Yi and saying, "You know what? If Team Yi doesn't like Milwaukee, tough nuts for them."

Trade Freeland!

by rockingharder on Apr 3, 2008 4:19 PM PDT up 0 recs

I don't think it's an issue.

Rudy's talent level is above most people he'd be competing against on the Blazers, so he'll get his minutes, by beating people out. I don't think the Blazers guarantee anything, but KP will try to sell him on that point, as well as the fact that the NBA is his dream league. It's smart of the Blazers to keep sending people like KP and Paul Allen and later the coaching staff to Europe to keep trying to sell him on the party line.

by ranma on Apr 3, 2008 4:03 PM PDT 0 recs

Chinese government

I think it's safe to say that Yi's demands were more because of his Chinese gub'mint handlers than Yi himself. Houston is a major market with a decent-sized Chinese population; Milwaukee, not so much. The Rockets organization had won a couple championships (and the accompanying PR) in recent memory; the Bucks...well...at best, they've been 'meh'.

Rudy's decision will be a personal one. Yi went/goes where the Chinese government tells him to.

But to your question, no minutes should be guaranteed. Period. If he's as good as advertised, commercial sponsors will toss in money to expose him to the US market, which will help somewhat.

Anybody know if rookie contracts can include performance incentives? That'd be the way to deal with it.

by grimc on Apr 3, 2008 4:12 PM PDT 0 recs

I'm pretty sure that the rookie salary is set in

stone. You can pay them 120% of the rookie salary but no more. Here is some more info

http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#61

But we are over the cap and will not be able to offer aa large incentive as the only reason we can sign him is that he was a draft pick and we have the rights to him at a set rate.

That being said, I think that he will be able to average the same amount of minutes AT LEAST here as he does in Spain as I thikn he only averages like 20 mins anyway.

The NBA

Where Kyle Korver happens.

by SpyderRyder on Apr 3, 2008 4:22 PM PDT up 0 recs

Thanks for the 120% info ...

I had never heard that.

As for minutes, looks like Rudy averages 28 per. http://www.acb.com/stsacum.php?cod_competicion=LACB&cod_edicion=52&cod_equipo=JOV&totale s=0

I don't know of many rookies that step in and play 28 minutes per game ...

by bfan on Apr 3, 2008 5:30 PM PDT up 0 recs

OK I take that back about the minutes part.

Actually a lot of rooks come in and play 28 MPG, they just happen to be the top 10 picks.

This year

Durant= 34.1
Horford= 31.4
Moon=28.1
Green=27.4
Thorton=26.4
Navarro=25.6
Conley=25.6
Yi=24.9
Scola=24

Of course mose of those teams are bad and have nothing to loose by throwing their rooks out there (ahem, Seattle) but out of those 10 2 are on playoff teams=Moon and Scola, both of whom share a similar background with Rudy as they were internationally experienced as well as the fact that, Scola won the ACB MVP in 2007 and Rudy should be the 2008 MVP.

To add to those, Navarro and Yi both are very internationally experienced and JCN won the ACB MVP in 2006.

So we should expect at least 24 MPG for Rudy, which is on par with Scola and Navarro.

The NBA

Where Kyle Korver happens.

by SpyderRyder on Apr 3, 2008 11:35 PM PDT up 0 recs

So what can the Blazers offer?

And what should Rudy be asking for?

If the Blazers are limited in the salary of a 24 pick, can they provide other financial incentives to fatten the pot? Can the Blazers give "no-show" jobs to other family members? Rent a McMansion to Rudy for $1 per month? Do other less-than-ethical (but maybe legal) measures?

And if Rudy can't get any more money, what should he ask for?

It seems like a legitimate worry to me to come to a team that is at the bottom of the league in fast-break points when one of your strengths is running. And, aside from Sergio, would you be wild about coming to a team that is already overloaded with guards and a coach that seems to favor one guard regardless of performance? Rudy won't replace B-Roy at the 2-guard position, so will Roy move over to PG? What do the Blazers do with all those guards? Would people rather hear an ultimatum to trade Jack and Wafer before he signs?

What can Rudy legitimately ask for/demand? Some guarantee of playing time seems pretty mild compared to what he might want/demand.

I do hope Rudy signs/plays for the Blazers next year, but I also hope the Blazers play a style of game that brings out the best in him. I'd have more than a 10% doubt that the Blazers as currently configured and run are the best fit for him.

by vcubed on Apr 3, 2008 4:26 PM PDT 0 recs

If money really is the most important thing,

Rudy is staying in Europe.

The Blazers are banking that it's not, and playing up every non-financial angle they can without guaranteeing playing time.

by ranma on Apr 3, 2008 4:30 PM PDT up 0 recs

whhy?

If money is the most important thing, he would come here. Yeah the rookie contract is not what he can make in Europe, but it is millions less than the money he can make here over the long term.

He will have to pay his dues at some point here through our contract system, but it's ludicrous to suggest he would stay there for the money. There is way more money to be made becoming part of the NBA, just a solid endorsement deal would probably equal a European contract.

"Stick a knife in 'em, their done!" ~ Mike Rice

by courtsideerrandboy on Apr 3, 2008 5:37 PM PDT up 0 recs

Risk.

He could get injured. A 25 million contract in the hand is worth a lot. That's what KP said European teams were likely to offer him. The difference between that and the total of his rookie NBA contract, which is like 3 million, is $22 million. NBA stars make more than that, but there are no guarantees he becomes a star, or even an established player, and if he doesn't know that now, he will know as soon as KP and the Blazers refuse to commit to granting his request for a lot of minutes and tell him he has to earn playing time. The safest monetary investment would be to stay in Europe.

To top everything off, the value of the dollar is falling against the Euro.

by ranma on Apr 3, 2008 5:51 PM PDT up 0 recs

i think i get it

so.....25-22 = 3. I think I'm catching on. You are good at this analysis stuff....

"Stick a knife in 'em, their done!" ~ Mike Rice

by courtsideerrandboy on Apr 4, 2008 3:28 AM PDT up 0 recs

Snarky comments aside,

the important thing is the contracts he can get now. He could play out his $25 or $30 million contract and then come to the NBA, you know?

by ranma on Apr 4, 2008 7:53 AM PDT up 0 recs

The contract he turned down from ...

CSKA Moscow last summer before resigning with DKV Joventut was for a reported 20 million EUROS over 3 years. That's 30 millions dollars, which = way more than an endorsement deal for an unproven player who can't speak good English yet.

I think it's debatable that he will make more in the long term over here, unless he plays really well and earns near max money at some point. 10 million per is nothing to sneeze at, and they have endorsement deals over there too ...

That said, I think it is and always has been his desire to play in the NBA. He'll fall into line when he sees the team we have ...

by bfan on Apr 3, 2008 5:54 PM PDT up 0 recs

okay

so what your saying is players will begin staying in Europe because the dollar is failing and teams offer more money for them to play there than here.

Could be an interesting future between the two leagues (and the world) if dollar continues to plummet. Go Iraq.

"Stick a knife in 'em, their done!" ~ Mike Rice

by courtsideerrandboy on Apr 4, 2008 3:26 AM PDT up 0 recs

KP doesn't guarantee anything ...

From day 1 he has stress competition and hard work. Rudy will either fall in line or find another home. Simple as that.

I wouldn't worry about any of this, though. Once he comes and sees how good the team will be and how much the city loves them, he will realize this is a great situation. Playing winning basketball will earn him more money in the future than playing big minutes on a bad team.

If not, we can just ship him to New York or Memphis.

by bfan on Apr 3, 2008 5:34 PM PDT 0 recs

Why Doesn't

Paul Allen start a shoe company and "endorse" Rudy for a couple million every year?

Rudy strengthening a perimeter already very powerful, the goal of the Blazers is to pursue everything.

by hightide on Apr 3, 2008 7:17 PM PDT 0 recs

Better yet,

Get Larry Miller to phone in a "favor" with Nike.

by ranma on Apr 3, 2008 7:20 PM PDT up 0 recs

I'm thinking that the NBA might frown on that

never, ever split tens

"It just showed once again that half the world doesn't know how the other three quarters live." -P.G. Wodehouse

by T Darkstar on Apr 3, 2008 7:22 PM PDT up 0 recs

Just a minor quibble

Medieval indulgences actually cost a fair amount, proportionately. That's part of why people got fussy about them.

--Dave

by Dave on Apr 3, 2008 7:26 PM PDT 0 recs

True.

It never made Tetzel a popular guy.

"It just showed once again that half the world doesn't know how the other three quarters live." -P.G. Wodehouse

by T Darkstar on Apr 3, 2008 7:29 PM PDT up 0 recs

You'd think that

with seven years of Catholic-affiliated education, that would be something I'd know. Strangely (not so strangely?), in all those years, they never taught me a thing about indulgences or the pre-Protestant Revolution church...go figure. That Tetzel quote is hilarious, btw, TDarkstar.

by BlazersOrBust on Apr 4, 2008 3:06 AM PDT up 0 recs

Shoots

If I was KP, I'd tell him he'll be the starter and average 40 minutes a night. Then the day he gets here I'd say, "Sike, earn your playing time like a man."

I'm tominhawaii and I approved this message.

by tominhawaii on Apr 3, 2008 11:41 PM PDT 0 recs

Just wondering....

...if Rudy's father is going to apply for Bill Bayno's position.

My guess is Rudy might get a gentlemen's agreement from KP/Nate that he'll get something like a minimum of 12 minutes a game for the first 20 games of the season. My guess is that will be enough of a guarantee. If he isn't extremely confident of showing he'll succeed, he wouldn't risk the money and come.

I'm frequently right, but always certain

by jscot on Apr 4, 2008 3:17 AM PDT 0 recs