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Player-by-Player: Travis Outlaw

Minutes--  Last Year: 22.9  This Year: 26.7  Change:  +3.8

Points-- Last Year:  9.6  This Year: 13.3  Change:  +3.7

Field Goals Attempted--  Last Year:  8.5  This Year: 11.7  Change:  +3.2

Field Goal Percentage--  Last Year: 43.4%  This Year: 43.3%  Change:  -.1%

Three-Pointers Attempted--  Last Year: 0.6  This Year: 1.2 Change:  +0.6

Three-Point Percentage--  Last Year: 27.0%  This Year: 39.6%  Change:  +12.6%

Free Throws Attempted--  Last Year: 2.7  This Year:  3.6 Change:  +0.9

Free Throw Percentage-- Last Year: 79.0%  This Year:  74.1% Change:  -4.9%

Effective Field Goal Percentage-- Last Year:  44.3% This Year: 45.4%  Change:  +1.2%

Offensive Rebounds-- Last Year: 1.0  This Year:  1.2 Change:  +0.2

Defensive Rebounds-- Last Year:  2.3  This Year: 3.4 Change:  +1.1

Overall Rebounds-- Last Year: 3.2 This Year:  4.6 Change:  +1.4

Assists-- Last Year:  0.8 This Year:  1.3 Change:  +0.5

Steals--  Last Year: 0.9  This Year: 0.7  Change:  -0.2

Blocks-- Last Year: 1.1  This Year:  0.8  Change:  -0.3

Turnovers-- Last Year: 1.0  This Year: 1.3  Change:  +0.3

Salary Status:  One year at $4.0 million and then a team option for one year at $4.0 million

 The easiest way to understand Travis Outlaw’s season is to point out some of the milestones he reached:

 --This was his first season playing in all 82 games.

--This was the first time his scoring average cracked double figures.

--This was by far his highest per-minute scoring production of his career.

--This was the fifth consecutive season (every one of his in the league) that his scoring and rebounding averages both rose.  (Though take this with a small grain of salt as his per-minute production has been up and down through those years.)

--This was the highest rebounding season of his career.

--This was the highest per-minute rebounding season of his career if you don’t count his 8-game rookie year.

--He got and made more free throw attempts this year than at any time in his career.

--He got and made more three point attempts this year than at any time in his career.

--He had a career high in assists and assists per minute (the latter again discounting his truncated rookie year).

--He fouled less than any time outside of his rookie season.

--He came within 0.4% of his career high three point percentage.

--He shot 74% from the foul line, second only to his 79% clip of the year previous.

--He played more minutes this year than in any other season.

--He played more fourth-quarter minutes this year than in any other season.

Overall that’s a pretty good body of work for a guy who heretofore had caused people to waffle more than a breakfast shack.  Travis showed why the Blazers were willing to have patience with him all these years.  (He is the longest-tenured Blazer on the team, or on the coaching staff or in the high-profile front office positions for that matter.)   He finally started getting predictable shots from consistent positions.  He found that his extraordinary leaping ability got him clear looks just as much when he was under control as it did when he was playing randomly.  He found more of a place in the team structure as well.  At times we fell prone to getting him the ball, clearing out, and watching but seldom were those his best performances.  This season was as distinct for him fitting in as it was for him standing out…neither of which he had been able to achieve with any consistency up until now.  The game-winners and fourth-quarter spurts were bonuses.

This is not to say all was sunshine and light for Travis.  For all we’ve mentioned, he’s still only half of a player.  His defense has improved but still needs work.  His rebounding is marginal.  His production is still inconsistent compared to mature players.  While he cut down his extreme bonehead plays by a factor of 10 this year his recognition is hardly airtight.   He has serious flaws as either a power forward or a small forward.  Overall he still falls into the category of player you hope for rather than player you trust.  That’s the next step in his maturation.

That said, Travis is a truly unstoppable force on offense when he gets cranking.  Those don’t come along very often.  At $4 million per year Travis is well worth developing for the next couple of seasons unless someone makes us a crazy trade offer.  If his averages keep rising he’ll be quite the asset.  If not, little harm.

Verdict:

Travis_medium

                                   Don't tease us, Baby! 

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

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Toughest Player in the World to Predict

I love Travis, he is a Blazer, and he is amazingly gifted physically (if ya know what I mean wink wink). He can definitely score, so he’ll always be good as a 6th man, but I have zero idea how his career will go otherwise. We can all HOPE he’ll improve and HOPE he’ll have another jump like he did this past season, but who can tell with him? Most guys don’t take 5 years to become a rotation player, even out of high school. Travis’ path has been different than most, and there isn’t exactly a lot of precedent to get a good idea of what he’ll become.

With Martell, you got better scoring/shooting numbers and improvement in all areas of the game. You can expect more of the same as experience and confidence rises. With Roy/LMA/Oden, you expect all aspects of their game to improve. Can we assume the same for Travis?

And this isn’t necessarily a knock on Travis, as I really really like him the person and him the player. He could become an allstar-level talent, or he could always remain a scoring curiosity who occassionally goes off. There is even less certainty than normal with the kid, and it makes it a doubly edged quandary when you think about trying to get a better PG, and that Outlaw is possibly our most valuable semi-available asset… but is there more to Travis we haven’t seen that makes him worth keeping at all costs? I sure as hell HOPE so, but I am the least certain about what he’ll eventually become over any other Blazer.

In general, I am for keeping a promising young player until you know what you got. Even after 5 seasons, we don’t know what we got in Travis Tiberius Outlaw the IV, esq., and as we move further towards the turning point in our team where we transition from decent to good, his mystery becomes frustrating and intriguing. Do we make him the center of a trade where we get a guy we KNOW is good and WILL help us win? Do we hope Travis fulfills his immense potential? What IS his ceiling?

I got no clue with this kid. I think it would hurt to see him in a different uniform.

One of my favorite things about Travis is that he seems like a guy who will ALWAYS be happy to come off the bench. That is pretty valuable for team harmony, and gives us greater depth and consistent scoring. Humble, talented dudes aren’t exactly a dime a dozen…

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Apr 28, 2008 1:09 AM PDT reply actions  

In some posts I've read, people question Travis' intelligence. That always

pizzes me off. He may learn differently than others but that doesn’t make him stupid, slow or any other of the perjoratives some want to label him with. If one takes the time to notice, he has improved his game tremendously in just the last year alone. In the first 2 or 3 years of his tenure as a Blazer the atmosphere was not exactly conducive to learning to be a part of a team or knowing where to fit. In fact, he’s the longest tenured Blazer and he’s only 23. I’m not even sure those early years should be counted when discussing his growth. He was a kid from a very sheltered childhood who happened to be tall and very athletic and suddenly found himself in the NBA on a very dysfunctional team. As I said, he may learn differently, but that’s okay. So did Einstein. I think Travis is one of those people who learns in a very linear way. If you’ve noticed, he seems to take one thing at a time and learns it very well. I may be a little sensitive here because I have a child who was labeled learning disabled in the first grade. As it turned out she has an IQ that’s off the charts. She just learns differently.

"We comin along." Travis Outlaw

by annthefan on Apr 28, 2008 2:10 AM PDT reply actions  

I agree, Ann

I agree that once Travis gets it, he gets it. He seems to be coming out of his shell more this past season, showing a sense of humor in interviews and appearing more comfortable on the court and off. Like you said, it was a tough transition for a sheltered, shy, asthmatic Southern kid who really hadn’t played much super structured basketball. He almost had to learn real basketball from the ground up, and didn’t always catch on right away—but he’s getting there.

Part of the speculation about his intelligence is caused by his shyness in past interviews, and some of his more boneheaded plays and defensive lapses over time. People question Jack like this, and he seems FAR from dumb to me. The more we get to know Travis, the same is definitely true for him. He is not dumb at all, and as he continues to learn the NBA the rookie mistakes will fade away. Every person in the real world learns differently, and it should be obvious that the same is true for NBA players. Travis needed more hands on development and guidance, and it is working.

All of these things just make Outlaw more loveable, if you ask me.

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Apr 28, 2008 2:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

Mort, I'm sorry if it seemed I was going off on you. It wasn't you at all. It was the end of my day

and I had just read a comment in another fan post that triggered my diatribe. Thanks for your observations on Travis. They made me feel better. I guess I’m kind of protective, huh.

"We comin along." Travis Outlaw

by annthefan on Apr 28, 2008 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh, do not let worry weigh down your mind and keep your spirit from soaring

Your post just reminded me that I didn’t really mention how Outlaw has been criticized for being “dumb”, and while he has made plenty of boneheaded mistakes on the court and has been slow to develop, I agree that he isn’t a stupid guy at all and just needed to come along differently.

I didn’t think you were yelling at me, no matter how much I deserve it. :-(

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Apr 28, 2008 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

A good point

about him being a young kid dropped into a a rat’s nest. Who among us could have learned anything from that group of bozos?

by raoulduke on Apr 28, 2008 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

I don't know anything about Travis specifically

But I think there is such a thing as intelligence, and not everyone we know and care about is above average, as we might like to pretend. Why is it okay to say a player is slow runner, but it’s not okay to say he’s a slow thinker? We are being dishonest if we always say that the players we like are not dumb, just because we like them and we don’t think it’s polite to say.

by pualo on Apr 28, 2008 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Aren't these supposed to be color coded?

All the delta’s are showing up as black, which supposedly means that all of Travis’ changes from last season are insignificant.

That doesn’t look right.

by timg56 on Apr 28, 2008 6:07 AM PDT reply actions  

Sorry

I forgot that step on this one. My bad. Consider anything significant to be color-coded.

—Dave

by Dave on Apr 28, 2008 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

Thank goodness.

I was afraid I might be going color blind.

by timg56 on Apr 28, 2008 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks, that worked.

Now everything looks appropriately red or green.

by pualo on Apr 28, 2008 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

I never realized how high Travis' 3pt % was.

I knew he hit some big ones a few times, but nearly 40% is pretty good. Percentagewise, that’s better than Webster. Of course, Martell has a bigger body of work to judge from. Still, if Outlaw becomes recognized as a legitimate 3pt threat to spread the floor, becomes more consistent, and improves his defense, I think we have the starting SF of our dreams not named LeBron.

All the trade rumors concerning Outlaw will be squelched when we win the number one pick in the 2008 NBA Draft and take Derrick Rose for our Future PG. Until then, though, Travis is going to be the most valuable piece we have who isn’t one of the big three. As long as the dreams of Calderon and Harris still dance in people’s heads, Travis is the only piece we have with which those trading partners will be enticed.

"Scholars have long known that fishing eventually turns men into philosophers. Unfortunately, it is almost impossible to buy decent tackle on a philosopher's salary." - Patrick McManus

by T Darkstar on Apr 28, 2008 6:16 AM PDT reply actions  

Martell is more of a threat in the catch and shoot

The 3pters Outlaw took were mostly in the corners. I wonder if he can extend his range to whole court.

BINGO, BANGO, BONGO

by blzrfan on Apr 28, 2008 6:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

That would be a dream come true.

I don’t know if it will happen though.

"Scholars have long known that fishing eventually turns men into philosophers. Unfortunately, it is almost impossible to buy decent tackle on a philosopher's salary." - Patrick McManus

by T Darkstar on Apr 28, 2008 6:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

Outlaw's role in the future is fuzzy

I can’t imagine Outlaw being our backup PF again next year. This year, due to our attrition at the bigs, his production increased because he was able to take advantage of matchups at the PF position. Unfortunately, we gave up tons of second chance opportunities and didn’t rebound the ball well.

With Oden back, we don’t need to play Outlaw at PF. The question is then, can he continue the same type of production at SF?

The other problem for Outlaw is his ability to play in a team offense. He’s most effective in iso situations, most of the time, settling for contested fade away jump shots. If he’s off, then he’s not going to be very effective.

Hopefully next year, Outlaw continues to grow and mature as a player. I would like to see him be more effective in transition and off the ball.

BINGO, BANGO, BONGO

by blzrfan on Apr 28, 2008 6:19 AM PDT reply actions  

Travis led the Blazers in 4th Q minutes

I was surprised when I looked at Brian Hendrickson’s expanded stats that Travis led the Blazers in 4th quarter minutes with 777 (Jack was second with 709 and Roy third with 650 and highest average of 9.56). Why surprised? I’m among those who question Travis’s B-Ball IQ, but he really was one of the critical go-to guys at the end of games.

While I didn’t have the faith that Nate has in Jarrett Jack to be a 4th-quarter closer, Travis usually rose to the occasion. If there was ever a single play that made a player’s season, it would have to have been Travis’s shot to win the game in Memphis. How crushed would have Travis, the Blazers, and fans have been if that shot were .01 second later (i.e., not in time)? That really started the amazing streak, and, really, amazing play from the whole bench.

Nate tolerated Travis’s mistakes, and I think he grew a lot by being on the floor. I think it is really tough for these straight-from-high-school guys to make it under the best of circumstances and Travis has needed more help than he has gotten in the past.

I hope he’s around next year and plays more SF either as a starter or as a sixth man. I think he plays his best when the offense has him as a primary focus and, as a starter, he’d be behind LMA, GO, and B-Roy and I think would get lost.

While he does have great athleticism, he does seem to get gassed with his asthma so fewer, but focused, minutes might work best for him. I’d like to see Travis add a bit of bulk and develop better ball handling as well as being in the best conditioning his asthma allows.

Weren’t those two dunks in the closing minutes against Memphis the perfect “book-end” close to Travis’s season? Hope he is back next year and he is not fodder to capture some point guard who may not be any better than Jack. Blake, Sergio.

by vcubed on Apr 28, 2008 12:05 PM PDT reply actions  

I love Travis

I don’t know much about babies, but that baby looks like he’s concentrating on one of the 4 things babies do. The others being sleep, cry, and eat. It’s a cute Dr. Evil like photo, but I know what that child is doing.

I sure hope Travis is here next year. I don’t know who will replace his production off the bench. Maybe Frye if he gets to play power forward with Joel at center.

"Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla are the next Yao Ming and Dikembe Mutombo." - Some guy on an elevator

by tominhawaii on Apr 28, 2008 1:08 PM PDT reply actions  

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