chemistry. Everyone talked about it in the first half of the season, very rarely in the second half. Who of the listed players is going to have the attitude: whatever helps the team, I’ll do my best to fill that role. I may want more playing time, but I’m crazy about the team, and this is absolutely where I want to be. This is the critical dimension that folks are leaving out. With cap space in 2009, we could have a huge upgrade at SF by signing Shawn Marion. But I can’t imagine that happening, because he’d kill the chemistry that the team has.

When I look at your candidates on this list, the one question mark I have is about Martell. I don’t think he deals well with playing a diminished role. Lots of tip-toeing around not bruising his ego, hurting his confidence, etc. Frye, Jones, Przy and Outlaw can go in and out of the starting lineup, get in the doghouse, get out of the doghouse and all of the things that happen on basketball teams. Webster not so much. I think he would start to ‘want out’ in the way I gather Jack kind of ‘wants out’ because he’s not being used in the way he thinks he can best be used.

I think Webster has a lot of talent, he is a good guy, and I’d guess he’ll be in the league a long time. I like having him on the Blazers. But in a forced choice, he’s the odd one out for me, and it is the chemistry dimension that is key in that.

Because I believe he will opt out and not be resigned by the team this summer. I also believe we will use our #1 pick on a defensive point guard, then let this team play the year out and make the hard choices next year when the team has cap room. The only players I really don’t expect back are Jones and Jack.

Line up for next year only

Blake/Roy/Sergio/draft pick – this order could be different but these are the players that will man the spot.
Roy/Rudy
Web/Trout
LMA/Frye/Mcrob
Oden/Joel/Reaf

Agreed completely that Jones is the odd man out. He provided some great times, but after watching him for the whole season, it’s hard to believe that he will be able to produce like that consistently for the remainder of his career. Good luck to him if he goes. Also, I think Martell Webster is better suited to be the starting forward rather than Outlaw, although the backup SF should get solid minutes too. If it turns out flipped the other way, that’s fine too, but I think Webster’s sharpshooter game (that we hope will develop) is the perfect complement to our Big Three. Kind of like the winning-streak Jones with a little more versatility. Outlaw just seems like he will be the ideal leader of a 2nd unit to me, being the main option of the offense. He needs to learn the small forward position better though, since he can take only a little time at PF as that’s mostly Frye’s role. In my opinion, Frye will have a MUCH better time next season at PF, especially if April was any indication. And yes, I agree with those who said trying Rudy at 3 in occasional situations could and should happen. So here’s how I see the depth chart working out with the current roster without Jones:

PG – Blake/Jack/Rodriguez
SG – Roy/Fernandez/Jack
SF – Webster/Outlaw/Fernandez
PF – Aldridge/Frye/Outlaw
C – Oden/Pryzbilla/LaFrentz

We need to move two of those guys to clear the logjam. No way I see us getting rid of Joel this summer. Greg will be a 20 year old rookie center coming off major knee surgery. No way in hell are we going to go in with him as our only true center. That means there will be no minutes available for any of the forwards at the 5 spot (and certainly not at the 2 spot), so that leaves 96 minutes a game to divide amongst:
LMA
Frye
Outlaw
Martel
Jones

Now, I’m going to assume we play some 3-guard sets with Roy+Rudy+PG at times, so that 96 minutes goes down to lets say 90. LMA is going to get his 34-36 per night. That leaves about 12 minutes at PF to divide amongts Trout and Frye, and 42 minutes at SF to divided between Outlaw, Martel, and Jones. Figure Trout is worthy of 24-30 per night spread among both positions, leaving us with just 24-30 minutes to divide between Frye, Jones, and Martel. That’s enough to give ONE of them some regular minutes, and the other two start filling a lot of box scores with “DNP-CD”s

So, I think that fairly well establishes that we need to shed TWO forwards, or hope that both of them are happy riding the pine. Is Jones going to exercise his option and then be happy sitting his contract year on the bench? Frye and Martel are both on the last year of his rookie deals too. So, if we keep them all, we run a big risk of hurting our chemistry and/or killing any trade value these guys might have.

Best case, Jones sees the writing on the wall and opts out, and we let him go. This leaves Martel and Frye to divide up the 24-30 minutes per night. One of them is essentially the 10th man playing spot minutes to cover injuries and foul trouble. I guess it’s a nice insurance policy, but now you’ve just killed their trade value.

Having a lot of young talent only last so long. Sooner or later, you have to trade that talent or it loses all it’s value due to lack of PT. Case in point, Sergio this year.

I expect to see either Frye, Outlaw, or Martel traded this summer, most likely in a package deal with other assets such as Jack, Sergio, our #13 pick, and/or Raef’s expiring contract.

http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/3/28/124520/591

In that diary, I discussed the minutes crunch at forward (as well as other positions), and the loss of trade value for players who don’t play.

If James Jones opts out, and no trades, we’ll have a second team frontcourt of Joel, Channing, and either Martell or Travis (whichever doesn’t start). Joel will get 15-18 mpg, Channing perhaps 12 mpg, and Travis and Martell might split minutes at the 3. No disasters, lots of depth, good injury coverage. Some players have reduced minutes, but not to the point of dissension. If we are going to go this way, we probably need to extend Channing (at a reasonably low price) so he doesn’t get disgruntled at reduced minutes in a contract year. Possibly also Martell.

If Jones doesn’t opt out, KP will probably look to trade a forward this summer, if he can get decent value, rather than have someone lose trade value.

He might trade two forwards, but that leaves us thin. We would need to either have Josh really up his game, draft one with our lottery pick, or trade for a forward.

What might help:
1. Winning makes people happy—especially if they haven’t been winning.
2. Blowouts make people happy, and we should get more of those.
3. Blowouts mean more minutes for bench players, and help keep people happy. We should get some blowouts in which guys like Roy and LMA play less than 30 minutes.
4. Championships on the horizon make guys very happy. The guy who might think he can start on other teams may decide it is worth it to be a sub on a team that he thinks is going to win several championships.
5. Happy fans make guys happy. We got ‘em.