J.Jones: A contrarian case for Team MVP?
by Throw is Darn Manly on Apr 21, 2008 1:43 PM PDT
20 comments
Hi. I've enjoyed reading the amazing commentary on this site over the season. Thank you! I'm something of a bandwagon, fairweather fan. I hope you won't think too ill of me if I admit that I found the jailblazer era pretty distasteful, and I ignored the team. Needless to say, I love the new look, and followed this season closely. I also am not very sophisticated with basketball. Since I don't really understand the game, in addition to all your commentary, I looked for new-school statistical measures to help me. I wanted to throw out something of a contrarian view for your collective expertise and criticism.
The story of James Jones’ knee and its impact on the team was one of
the most interesting stories of the season. I believe, in fact, that
James Jones' knee is in some ways more important than Brandon Roy to
the Blazers success. I enjoyed watching Roy and his cross-over dribble
for sure, but the vicissitudes of the knee was the big narrative arc
for me. Jones' level of excellence isn’t as high or as broad as Roy’s
– he’s not an All-Star in that way – but his success correlates more
strongly with Blazer wins than Roy’s success does. I find this
inversion very interesting.
Using “game score,” from Basketball-reference.com (an aggregate statistical measure of player productivity that uses
points, attempted and made field goals, attempted and made free throws,
offensive and defensive rebounds, steals and blocks, assists, personal
fouls and turnovers. 10 is about average. - Are there better measures
out there, btw?), I tried to determine player value in wins.
Roy’s game scores ranged from 30.7 to .6, with an average of
14.9. Jones’ ranged from 17.4 to -6.0, with an average of 5.9. As
you’d expect, by a substantial margin Roy has the broader and better
game. And if 10 is average, Jones doesn’t even rank as an average
starter – and, indeed, he’s not a starter.
But take Jones’ game scores and rank them in descending order,
and then divide them into thirds – so you get good games, average
games, and poor games. When Jones has a good game, the Blazers were
16-3, 84%. His average games yielded 12-7, 63%. And his bad games,
5-15, 25%. When he didn’t play, 8-16, 33%.
When I do the same for Roy – and his *average* game is even a
little better than Jones’ good game – Roy’s good games yielded 19-6,
76%. His average games, 14-11, 56%. And his bad games, 7-17, 29%.
Though when he did not play, the Blazers were practically guaranteed a
loss: 1-7, 13%.
When Jones has an average game or better, the Blazers were
28-10, 74%; when Roy has an average game or better, the Blazers were
33-17, 66%.
In crude terms, having Jones nail a few threes correlates with
a Blazer win more strongly than any other individual performance. In
wins, he shot 50% from the arc; in losses, 32%. (I didn’t do the
calculations for other players, but I looked for similar patterns, and
none of the other players have anything like Roy or Jones’ correlations
with wins. I mean, the streak started when he came back!)
By this measure his healthy knee (assuming the knee was the
reason for his shooting difficulties) is more valuable than Roy.
Basketball-reference also gives WSAA (win shares above
average). By this measure, with 3.0 Jones is the third most valuable,
behind Roy at 5.0 and Przybilla at 4.0.
Additionally, at 82games.com Jones has very good +/- marks in each player pair, only slightly behind the marks of Blake and Roy.
Each of these measures gives high importance to Jones and his impact on the team.
I wonder if he can repeat this, though. He may not be a good bet
for the Blazers to lock up with a multi-year contract. Before the
All-Star break Jones was shooting 48%, but after it he shot 39%. We
all saw the swoon. Jones is a career 40% shooter, and his season rate
this year of 44% was significantly higher – not to mention the stretch
where he was shooting 50% or better. The post-All-Star rate is more
consistent with his career rate. It’s true that the knee injury
hampered him, and it’s also likely that the situation in Portland in
terms of “culture” was conducive to a higher rate of production. But
was the improvement over the first half of the season more a streak of
random variation than a new plateau of sustained achievement? Hard
to say. Glad I’m not KP! What do you all think?
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Contract yr.
When Jones is hitting his 3-ball, it helps the team significantly…no argument. However, that’s true of the everyone on the team. Locking JJ2 up for a long contract would be a mistake. 3 years or less with a modest salary…ok. Remember this was a contract year (potentially) and athletes seem to have career years when they are about to test the market. If Martell can boost his consistency from the outside than we wouldn’t even miss JJ2 next year if he didn’t re-sign.
What he said
I think we can find someone who can shoot as well as Jones and can also do some other things a thousand times better. Might be Martell, might be someone else. I watched James Jones all season, looking for the greatness that so many others saw, and I never saw it. Nobody sane would ever argue that when Jones did have a great shooting game, it made the team much better on offense.
by leeroyjenkins on Apr 21, 2008 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree.
Why do you think the Suns were so cool with giving him up? It’s not like they didn’t know he could shoot the ball. I love him… but I love six of our other guys more.
I'm suprised
by the views of the comment and thought I was the only one who thought this way. I hope we don’t lock him up with a dumb contract and I have faith that we won’t.
I noticed your points too.
Our losing streak started about the time Jones came on. it ended about the time he went out again.
He had a nice effect on the team in both his points and directing traffic while he was out there and imparting experience.
I wouldn’t lock him up in large contract, but I’m glad I’m not the only one who’s noticed.
Oh, and i wouldn’t lock him up with a contract at all. I like too many other players more and that knee kept coming back.
"No way. I love this town. We're gonna bring back the glory years. These boys are my boys. This is my team and my town." - Greg Oden when asked about leaving.
Outstanding post!
Detailed statistical perspective and quality presentation.
What do I think? I’m not sure. I was sliding away from retaining Jones but your facts have me leaning back the other way now.
I hope you CC’d KP.
The big question is:
was this a fluke season or will he shoot this high percentage every year?
Looking at his previous year numbers he has never been this good of a shooter. If he can sustain a 45-50% 3pt shooting and finally heal his knee then he is worth a Travis-like contract. Nothing too long, nothing too high. Especially since he is our third SF.
Hopefully he gets surgery or somehow heals his knee so that he can play 70+ games a year plus playoffs ;)
Woof
by Charles Barkley McLovin on Apr 21, 2008 5:29 PM PDT reply actions
thanks for this post.
keep them coming.
jj3 provides toughness too. although his reputation is being cerebreal, he’s not one to back down. he will commit the hard foul and always spaces the floor well.
spacing will be even more important with oden next year so thats a big gold star next to his name (i worry about travis and martell both on this point).
caution on the contract is very good advice that will most likely be heeded. i don’t think he will be asking for the world asi think he wants to settle his family (young kids) here in portland.
"Honor Terry Porter." Email me with your TP stories and memories.
Excellent post.
While I wouldn’t go as far as to say Jones is our MVP, but I would agree that his season shows the importance of floor spacing in the NBA. Proper spacing allows the lane to open up considerably for drives to the basket, swing passes after double teams, etc. A spot-on outside shooter coming off the bench is a critical piece for any championship team, even if their minutes are limited.
With that in mind, Ben brings up an excellent point. I agree that Jones most likely wants to settle down, likes this Blazers team and won’t ask for too much. I’ll keep my fingers crossed to say the least.
Blazermania: back and better than ever
No No
I don’t think the Blazers need Jones.I don’t think he can repeat this season. To many knee Injurys and he don’t rebound well,don’t block shots,doesn’t play defense that well either. The 3ball is about all he does.Webster well make Jones look like a NBDL player in two years.If he doesn’t opt out I think we should trade his expiring contract.
Webster's contribution to wins
A couple of folks have mentioned Webster. I looked at him, and at least at present, Jones has some secret sauce that Webster entirely lacks. Webster’s gamescores range from 22.2 to -1.2. On the surface he appears to offer significantly more than Jones. But I found that in Webster’s good games (the top third ranked by gamescore), the Blazers were 12-13. They remained a .500 team! Even when Webster is shooting threes well, his success didn’t impact the team and contribute to a win. Consistency alone on the three won’t be enough. Moreover, his WSAA was -1.0. So it looks to me like it’s actually the other stuff that Webster needs to improve on. (That summer “homework,” I guess!)
As I read the statistics, Jones is the one who has skills beyond shooting threes – some of which are not skills captured by counting stats. Anyway, I really like Webster, and he had some nifty moves to the basket at the end of the season (and I loved that one monster quarter). But I didn’t see evidence that Webster contributes to wins yet.
Ryan Rowland-Smith - Throw is Darn Manly
by Throw is Darn Manly on Apr 21, 2008 7:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Can't compare them
Webster also played primarily as a starter while Jones was mostly on the bench. As was pointed out in a post on the main page, Blazers starters did not stack up well against other teams, but the bench unit did have better stats than opposing benches. Jones contribution to winning was probably artificially inflated as a result. Stick the more versatile Webster into his spot and I bet he ends up with better stats than Jones.
Jones is not our MVP
Your post is excellent and gives evidence to back up what many of us felt all along- Jones playing well was huge for this team.
The reason he’s not the MVP is that there were too many games where he didn’t play well (or was injured to begin with). He was crucial to many of our wins, but wasn’t nearly as good or as consistent as Roy.
Boomshakalaka
Jason Kapono for comparison
Kapono led the league in 3pt% and shot 48%. His gamescores range from 23.9 to -2.4. In his good games (top 1/3 by gamescore), the Raptors were 18-9, 67%. His average games and worse correlate strongly with losses. His season WSAA was -4.0. Interestingly, over his career, one year longer than Jones, his cumulative WSAA is -10.0. Jones cumulative is +5.5. It appears that even shooting a slightly lower percentage than Kapono, Jones is much more helpful to his team.
Ryan Rowland-Smith - Throw is Darn Manly
by Throw is Darn Manly on Apr 21, 2008 9:20 PM PDT reply actions
not buyin it
It seems that your stats give each player too much credit for the outcome of the game. If the Suns were winning 80% of their games, when JJ2 had a bad game, they probably won anyways. Whereas the teams Kapono played for (can’t remember where he was before the Raptors) were probably closer to .500 teams, and even in his good games, they were just as likely to be wins as losses.
James Jones is a keeper
Great analysis, intuitively we knew Jones had alot to do with our win streak, so it’s good to have stats to back that up.
Even at a modest salary Jones will want to stay. It will cost us relatively nothing to keep him as our 2nd or 3rd choice SF. Provided he stays healthy, JJ3 can be our consistent perimeter threat off the bench, he draws out defenders and creates driving and passing lanes. Contrary to some earlier posts, he actually can play lock down perimeter defence.
Martell and Trout will develop even more in the coming season, but I don’t see them improving that much more, and at this point they still have alot to prove. I’m of the opinion that one of them will have to be traded in ‘09 or ‘10. If we’re looking at an upgrade at point guard, and Oden, Roy and LMA are the cornerstones of our franchise, either Martell or Trout will have to go for salary cap reasons alone. Even with Miles and LaFrentz off the books we need cap space to resign key players and pick up a Chris Paul calibre point guard (or at least a Devin Harris with a jump shot).
To put it bluntly, even at the peak of their game, one of them will be attractive trade bait for the breakout 09-10 season. I love both these guys and would like to keep them both, but for the sake of team balance and acquiring the necessary contract upgrades we need to let one of them go.
A prescient post
http://www.blazersedge.com/2007/12/7/53017/1405
After the second game of the streak, I posted that the Blazers had turned the corner, and that James Jones’ contributions were a big factor.
When Jones played well, the Blazers won. When he was out, or played poorly, they lost.
He provided spacing, defensive toughness, and veteran calmness. He made a clutch defensive play that won the game at Chicago. He made hard fouls sometimes when they were needed. When T-Mac left the ball on the floor at the end of the Houston game, he picked it up and dunked it. That was a tacky move, and Jones sent a message that this won’t be tolerated, and it won’t be forgotten.
People think the Blazers are too nice, too easy-going. I don’t, but I do think you need some guys with some fire, and Jones has it.
I see Jones as potentially a long term role player on the team. He can be a decent backup SF for us.
But other players could provide what he provides, and we’ve got a lot of depth at SF. If Martell or Travis are traded for a PG, we may see Jones here for a long time. If not, I expect him to go elsewhere.
I doubt he opts out. He likes Portland. If we trade a forward this summer, KP may very well sign him to an extension for several years, at a reasonable price. If we don’t make a trade, there won’t be an extension this year, but it might happen next year, depending on what else happens.
When I rule the world, Isiah Thomas will be coach and GM of the L*kers, who will be owned by someone who no one respects whose first initial is "J".
We want to see Greatness in undeserving people
We want to see greatness in people that don’t have it because then it gives us the hope that one day we can be great. While Jones can shoot, and… well… I guess that’s all he can do. Fans and people in general want to root for the underdog, the little guy; but James isn’t deserving honestly.
He doesn’t drive this team like some believe, or steady the team (that’s what Roy does), he doesn’t anchor our defense, or keep the offense flowing (Przybilla, Blake, and Roy), he doesn’t get us a shot when we need it (if he hit a shot it’s because Roy, Blake, or Jack assisted on it), and he doesn’t have any of those “intangibles”, you know the “kind of thing that doesn’t show up on the stat sheet” that people always mysteriously see in players. Unless you consider fouling a player hard when he gets by you instead of playing real defense an intangible. That’s what we used to get so mad at Przybilla for last year.
I’m sorry but if all James can do is hit a couple threes and “provide spacing” (seriously are we talking up his value because he gets out of our good player’s way?) then I see him as a future vetaran’s minimum and 10 minutes off the bench player for us or not playing for us. Don’t waste our money on him when there are more deserving players.
I am the master of my fate, I am the Captain of my soul. - Charles Wesley
Intangibles?
James Jones is as loaded with intangibles as any player on this team. He provides some veteran leadership when he is on the court and helps mentor our younger players off it. The threat of his highly accurate 3-point shooting is enough to draw defenders away from the basket and make it easier for everyone else to score. He is not a very athletic defender, but he is a smart and determined one who always ends up in the right place at the right time. He draws offensive fouls at a pretty high rate, and doesn’t commit a lot of fouls unless it is necessary to stop an easy basket. The Blazers play better when he is on the court then when he is not, and has a good adjusted +/- score as well.
Team MVP? I think that is going too far. However, JJ33 is a good player and certainly played better than Martell did last year.
by trk on May 3, 2008 6:37 PM PDT up reply actions
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