Hey, I'm a long time BlazersEdge reader and this is my first post.  It's a synopsis of what we have and what to expect for next year.  Tonight I'll be the "Blazer Analyst" on the Shuttlecoque Sporting Hour on KPSU.com/1450AM.  The show is every Sunday at 6pm. Our segment will be at around 6:40.

I'd appreciate any feedback you all may have on my analysis below.  I apologize in advance... it's pretty long:

Name - Age - Position – Contract Remaining/Status* - Salary Per Year

*Contract Status Key:

UFA – Unrestricted Free Agent

RFA – Restricted Free Agent

PO – Player Option

TO – Team Option

Greg Oden - 20 - C - 3yrs/RFA - 5.0/5.4/6.8

Potential franchise center, rookie season derailed by micro-fracture surgery

Excellent strength, size, skill, athleticism for a 7-footer

Should be a prolific shot blocker

Will learn to stay out of foul trouble with body control

Underrated athelticism (block vs. Tenn, dunk vs. Dallas) - Very Explosive

Athleticism not as good as Dwight Howard, athleticism better than Andrew Bynum

Fills obvious needs from past season - will improve team rebounding, interior defense, points in the paint, fastbreak points

Eligible for Rookie of the Year award next season

Will grow into a potent offensive weapon before most people think, consistently drawing double teams

Strength and speed will translate into many easy buckets down low and he hits his free throws

Arrival will make the game easier for every player on the team

Moderate projected numbers - 15P/9R/2B

Maintains great blog on yardbreaker

Joel Pryzbilla - 29 - C - 2yrs/1yrPO - 6.3/6.9/7.4

3rd most efficient rebounder in NBA

Valuable defensive presence, very limited offensively, no range away from basket

Played in every game until broken hand ended season

Dramatically improved free throw shooting

Physical leader on the team

Excellent backup center will ease Oden's transition

Raef Lafrentz - 32 - PF/C - 1yr - 12.7

Huge expiring contract is an asset

Emergency big man off the bench

LaMarcus Aldridge - 23 - PF - 2yrs/RFA - 4.6/5.8

Very athletic big man

Made huge strides in the last month+ of the season

Doubled scoring in 1/3 more minutes

Sheed like - Developing deadly inside/outside game + back/facing basket game

Nate wants him to add more bulk this off-season

Oden's arrival allows him more freedom on offense and defense - who do you double?

Game will be much easier playing next to Oden

Could easily become team's leading scorer for next 10+ years

Outside threat (working on 3pt shot) opens up floor for guards/Oden, defenders can't cheat off of him

Long arms, fast, skilled, perfect weak side defender, can run break/finish

Channing Frye - 25 - PF - 1yr/RFA - 3.2

Absolutely loves Portland, maintains excellent blog/website (channingfrye.com)

Met with KP stating desire to stay for the long haul

Couldn't ask for a better backup PF

Outside threat (working on 3pt shot) opens up floor for guards/Oden, defenders can't cheat off of him

VERY underrated rebounder, great per40 numbers

Team-first attitude, but will he accept 10+ MPG?

Josh McRoberts - 21 - PF - 1yr - .5

Unofficial mascot, fan favorite

Friendship with Oden will probably keep him in town for a while longer

Good passer and athletic for a big man

Probably should have either left after freshman season or stayed in college

Travis Outlaw - 24 - PF/SF - 2yrs - 4/4

Took game to another level this year (Mr. 4th Quarter)

Ability to create his own shot is very valuable for white (2nd) unit

Developed 3pt shot, perimeter game

Played well at PF in small lineups

Nate (overstating) compares offensive potential to Bryant/McGrady

Trailblazer with longest tenure (6yrs)

Finally came into his own in his 5th season

Could stand to improve defensive consistency

James Jones - 28 - SF - PO - 3.2

Stepped in after injury and was a key piece of "the streak"

Elite 3pt shooter, good heady defender with long arms

Made several big plays on both ends of the floor mid-season, “Ime'd” key rebounds in close games

At times he was a calming presence on the floor, especially with "white unit"

Team-first player could look for an extension this summer

Great character, highly intelligent, finance major

Will he be happy with 10+ MPG?

Martell Webster - 21 - SF/SG - 1yr/RFA - 3.8

Showed flashes of brilliance this year (24 point quarter vs. Utah)

Very underrated athleticism, possibly best dunker on team

Has the ability to turn into an elite defender

Already had an NBA body coming out of high school, still only 21

Showed more desire/intensity to attack basket, be aggressive on offense/defense

Hesitant to trade for a Richard Jefferson/Dunleavy/Mike Miller type when Martell could be a much better piece/fit long-term and is at least 6 years younger

Must improve free throw shooting, should be 40%+ 3pt shooter next year

I see him as the starting 3 on this team for the long-haul

Rudy Fernandez - 22? - SG - 4yrs/RFA -

Best player in Europe

Ginobili type relentless attacker, draws a ton of fouls

Hits difficult and clutch shots

Very good at changing direction/stopping on a dime/pulling up/finishing strong

Very good 3 pt shooter, transition player, will help fast-break points

Not really a SF or PG, where does he fit with Roy?

Questions about defense/physical strength

Plays through injury

Can sign much bigger contract in Europe

Brandon Roy - 24 - SG/PG - 2yrs/RFA - 3/3.9

Set himself apart as the best player and heart of the team

Coaches voted him into ASG and he didn't disappoint

Ability so set the tempo, keeps team under control

Ability to change speed/direction/get to the hoop

Working on mid-range game as well as 3pt shot, should prevent injury

Ideally a SG with a complimentary PG, but possibly best PG on team right now

Plays through injury, absolute winner

Face of the franchise for the next 10+ years

Expect his rebounding and possibly scoring to decrease

Expect assists to increase

Jarrett Jack - 25 - PG/SG - 1yr/RFA - 2

Many fans think he's most likely to be traded

Questions about where he fits in with the team

He loves being a Blazer and his teammates love him

Passionate/intense player

Adequate shooter, strength to get to the hoop

Exceptional free throw shooter

Questions about his transition game/true PG skills - due to the way he's used?

Has the strength but lacks speed to be a good perimeter defender

Ankle still not 100% since college, how much difference will that make?

Steve Blake - PG - 1yr/1yr TO - 4.25/4.25

Excellent off-season addition

Timely shooting, ability to knock down the open three

Served purpose - brought ball up court to get the offense started, knocked down open shots, played good defense

Portland is his permanent home

Long term rotation guard?

Team could decline his PO to make room for a FA, could still sign with the team after release

Short term answer at PG, nice compliment to Roy

Sergio Rodriguez - 22 - PG - 2yrs/RFA - 1/1.9

Seemed to regress this year as 3rd rather than 2nd PG

Statistics down across the board, assists halved in 2/3 minutes

Lasting image of the 2 Alley-oops to Travis brings back memories of last year

May not make Spanish national team, possibly 4th best Spanish PG (Calderon, Navarro, Rubio)

Still 21 and shows very good court vision, handles, creativity, pass-first approach

Shooting and defense are suspect

Only effective in spurts

Von Wafer - SG - UFA - 0

Steve Francis - bought out - 1yr - 17.2mil

Darius Miles - SF – Waived, salary will not count against cap - 2yr - 9/9

Injury deemed career ending, just waived

Salary goes back on books if he plays in 10+ games with another team

Solid pool of unsigned FAs and questionable character should prevent that

May re-apply even if he plays 10+ games

Essential to 09' cap space plan

First Round Pick #13 (2% chance at top 3) -

possibly last lotto pick for a long time

deep draft, quality guards available

Possibly available at #13:

Collison - may be available well after #13, VERY fast, solid defender, should be available, solid scorer in key games late in the season for UCLA

Westbrook - currently projected to be gone just before #13, stepped up in Collison's absence, PAC-10 Defensive POY, very good size, speed, athleticism

Move up for:

Mayo - stock has risen again, natural talent, very good size, off the charts potential

Bayless - likely top 5 pick, very quick and athletic, good shooter, scoring instincts, defense, decent PG size

Second Round Picks #33, 34, 56 -

2 high 2nd round picks, 2+ picks possibly used to move up in draft

2009 Free Agent

Team has the flexibility to have more than enough to sign a free agent to a maximum salary contract. 

Summer trades

Will not make a lateral move

Deals most likely on draft day, esp. trading current for future picks, trying to move up/consolidate picks

Players like Webster or Outlaw will only be moved for a significant improvement at PG or possibly SF

Trades next season

Again, unless a trade significantly improves the team for the long-haul, don't expect Pritchard to move Lafrentz's contract, along with some of our youngsters, for a long-term contract.  Pritchard and Co. will allow his contract to expire, opening the door for a major free agent signing or a trade where (because Portland will be under the cap) we take more salary back than we send out.  The cap space is ultimately about flexibility even if it doesn't result in a major signing.

What to expect next year

5 Key Players

Next year is all about Greg Oden.  The Blazer faithful have rode a roller-coaster with Greg this year; the first jump ball of the next will be an emotional moment for many of us.  His presence in the middle will have a chain reaction down the roster, making the game easier for everyone, especially LaMarcus Aldridge.  Oden is simply too physically gifted and skilled to not have an immediate impact.  He'll still have a learning curve, but that won't stop him from becoming an upper echelon NBA center the moment he steps on the court.  His impact will first be felt the strongest on defense, but don't underestimate his impact on the other end of the floor.  Opposing players will think twice before attacking the basket and won't want to leave him on offense because when he establishes position deep he's always a risk to throw down a momentum-shifting monster dunk.  Look for Oden to be a contender or frontrunner for rookie of the year while putting up near double digit rebounds and over 2 blocks a game.

LaMarcus will pick up right where he left off.  He ended this season on a tear, displaying a new level of confidence and aggression.  He'll be stronger inside on offense and defense with more shooting range.  With Oden, LaMarcus will face less pressure and have more freedom on both ends.  This summer Lamarcus will primarily work on his strength and ball-handling.  Look for an increase in his scoring (20+ppg) and blocks next season as he establishes himself as what Rasheed could have been - a fluid big man with a deadly offensive repertoire.

Brandon Roy will continue his climb that may eventually lead him to become the most celebrated player in franchise history.  He will continue to provide the leadership, patience, toughness and character that his teammates will feed off of.  His assist numbers will climb with a new offensive option inside and his already underrated defense (see Joe Johnson desperation 3) will improve with two shot blockers behind him.  His primary goal this offseason is to become stronger and acquire a better 3-point shot.  The added strength should allow him to finish even better at the basket and increase his durability.

Martell Webster will be back after missing the end of the season with an irregular heartbeat.  Nate has stated his desire for Martell to become the lock down defender he has the tools to become.  Next year will be another of measured growth for Martell.  Look for him to display more consistency and aggression offensively and record his first 30+ point game.  His priority this off-season will be improving his ball-handling while working out with Luke Ridnour in his hometown of Seattle.  His 3-point shooting will increase with more attention paid to the big men on the inside.  Martell's shooting will continue to open up the lane for Travis, Brandon, and possibly Rudy to attack the basket; likewise, there will be plenty of opportunities for Martell to knock down open 3's on kick outs with those three attacking the basket.

Travis Outlaw will also be focusing on his ball-handling this summer.  Outlaw's main weapon this year has been a pull up jumper that he can hit consistently over the outstretched arms of almost any defender.  Increasing his ball-handling skills will allow him to diversify his offensive game and give him more confidence attacking the basket.  Look for Outlaw to solidify himself as a premiere 6th man next year.

5 Off-season Questions

1. Will Rudy Fernandez be in a Blazer uniform next year?  Just how good will he be?

2. What will Pritchard to on draft day?  The Blazers have their own lottery pick, two high second round picks, and a late second round pick.  They will have two open roster spots, one if Rudy Fernandez comes over.

3. What is the future of the point guard position?

4. If Travis continues to log minutes at PF, where does Channing Frye fit with this team?

5. If Fernandez comes over and Roy plays even more PG this year, where do Jarrett Jack and Sergio Rodriguez fit in? Steve Blake will continue to log minutes at PG, Sergio is still a project, what about Jarrett?

Team Prognosis

Barring significant injury the Blazers will be expected to contend for a playoff spot next season.  Nate McMillian has already stated that he expects the team to make the playoffs.  The Blazers are deep enough to withstand injuries, but will need to be healthy to make any noise in the playoffs.  Considering the general predictions for this last season, posting a .500 record is a significant accomplishment.  At the very least expect a 45 win team that narrowly misses the playoffs; at best expect a team that will challenge for home court in the first round in the deep western conference.  It's probably too early to expect a division title with mighty Utah in our division, but leapfrogging Denver is a real possibility.