TiH Statistical Breakdown of the Playoffs

by tominhawaii on Apr 17, 2008 11:41 PM PDT

I am sure you have all been anxiously awaiting my statistical breakdown of the playoffs. I recalculated all my stats, to make sure I took into account any roster moves that might have happened since my first TiH breakdown. The final conclusion is still the same as my original post, but I wanted to see how things will break down through each round. I highlighted all the winners in bold.

East First Round:

Boston – 499

Atlanta – 202

Cleveland – 266

Washington – 153

Orlando – 233

Toronto – 219

Detroit – 334

Philadelphia – 324

Eastern Conference Semifinals:

Boston – 499

Cleveland – 266

Orlando – 233

Detroit – 334

Eastern Conference Finals:

Boston – 499

Detroit – 334

West First Round:

Los Angeles – 211

Denver – 270

Salt Lake City – 298

Houston – 257

San Antonio – 225

Phoenix – 304

New Orleans – 258

Dallas - 371

Western Conference Semifinals:

Denver – 270

Salt Lake City – 298

Phoenix – 304

Dallas – 371

Western Conference Finals:

Salt Lake City – 298

Dallas – 371

NBA Finals:

Boston – 499

Dallas – 371

There you have it. The same results as my first post, just with the surprising Jazz making it to the Conference finals. I think most people have Boston and Detroit in their conference finals, so that is not much of a surprise. Actually, the biggest shocker will be a repeat of the eighth seed in the Western Conference knocking out the one seed two years in a row. I cannot wait to see how this all shakes out. Sorry I could not figure out how to put this information in brackets or columns for a better presentation.

Tweet Comment 34 comments | 6 recs |

Do you like this story?

Read More: tih, stats, 2008 nba playoffs

Comments

The scary thing

is that all of those results could actually happen.

When I rule the world, every fan post will be an encomium to the Blazers.

by jscot on Apr 18, 2008 1:21 AM PDT reply actions

I spent five minutes

trying to come up with a reason that this isn’t brilliant statistical analysis, and I flat failed. This makes adjusted plus-minus look like minutes played. This is revolutionary. But have eyes in the back of your head, Tom—there are dictators prowling this board who would kill to have the formula and not the nuisance of the genius who created it.

by BlazersOrBust on Apr 18, 2008 2:37 AM PDT reply actions

Thanks

I don’t understand stats because they never seem to add up to me. So I made up my own and for some reason, they seem to be relevant about as often as real stats. I really wanted Dallas to miss the playoffs, because I thought Phoenix had a better chance of making it out of the west than Dallas. I just hope my Denver pick turns out to be true.

Ask not what Blazers Edge can do for you; ask what you can do for Blazers Edge.

by tominhawaii on Apr 18, 2008 2:49 AM PDT up reply actions

If they do

Not only will you be on to something, but it will be an all round awesometastic event. Lakers out in the 1st round? WHEEE hahaha I’m dancing and twirling my fingers in the air it’s so delightful.

Is Bynum even practicing yet? The Lakers defense sure can’t stop the Nuggets, though I can’t expect the Nuggest to give a consistent effort for more than 3 minute stretches. Still, your numbers speak for theyself.

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Apr 18, 2008 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions

Bostonians see the future in the cups of tea

That´s why they chose those numbers. I think also that´s why the had that little problem with their King in 1773, because His Majesty considered completely vulgar that they read the future in the cups of tea. So history is writen.

Tell me with whom you walk and I will tell you who you are.

by amlmart1 on Apr 18, 2008 11:36 AM PDT reply actions

They were reading their future...

...in a whole Harbor full of tea, that year.

"Lenny Suckerpunch NEVER bet on me!" - Elizabeth "The Lizzard" Lowblow

by Lizzy Lowblow on Apr 18, 2008 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions

Alas! Now we have bottled tea and tea bags in America, even in Boston.

Not as much opportunity for prognostication.

by annthefan on Apr 18, 2008 7:41 PM PDT up reply actions

Sorry, Tom

I confess I haven’t read your first breakdown, which no doubt details the statistical basis for these predictions. But nevertheless, I’ll boldly go on record by saying the West ain’t going to go down ANYTHING like that. Dallas in the finals? Your stats must be smoking something.

"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla

by hurryup09 on Apr 18, 2008 12:29 PM PDT reply actions

You MUST read his first breakdown

The beauty of these stats is in the method. If you don’t understand them, there’s an entire horizon of truths out there for you to see.

Smoking something? It is to laugh.

When I rule the world, Isiah Thomas will be coach and GM of the L*kers, who will be owned by someone who no one respects whose first initial is "J".

by jscot on Apr 18, 2008 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions

I confess

The beauty of stats escapes me. You can’t reduce the wondrousness of NBA hoops to numbers, no matter how you try. Time and time again, my “gut” has proven far more reliable than the prognostications of the stat gurus. I know, I know: I blaspheme.

Having said that, I suspect I have erred in not reading Tom’s earlier post before commenting. After all, he IS tominhawaii. Now that I think about it, his statistical method is likely blaphemous itself.

I’ll get around to checking that out as soon as I finish smoking this, er, cigarette.

"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla

by hurryup09 on Apr 18, 2008 3:31 PM PDT reply actions

Ha ha you love Utah

Because you’re smoking JAZZ cigarettes!

Oh, Ho ho heh heh… huh?

Morty-more

by Mortimer on Apr 18, 2008 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions

The real question is

Who is going to win American Idol? Predict that and then we can see how good a predictor you are.

by Sabonis4Ever on Apr 18, 2008 5:07 PM PDT reply actions

I've been trying to find a method for predicting AI similar to the TiH stats

but I cant think of anything. Could it have to do with the number of times Randy says Dawg? or that Paula says “I really like you…you did a good job.”?

If all I'm remembered for is being a good basketball player, then I've done a bad job with the rest of my life. - Isiah Thomas

by JTDuck22 on Apr 18, 2008 10:08 PM PDT up reply actions

That's a tough one

I can’t think of any numbers, besides their singing order, that you could apply to AI. My money is on the boy who always sings songs about miracles.

I am tominhawaii, the Ever-Living. By the power of Greyskull, I forever battle the Lizakers.

by tominhawaii on Apr 18, 2008 10:29 PM PDT up reply actions

It's skewed by the tendency of fans to consider their favorites "safe"

That’s what did in Chris Daughtry last year and the Aussie this season. Having said that, it’s gotta be the awkward kid with the amazing voice. It’s as if the kid behind the counter at 7-11 were possessed by the ghost of Donny Hathaway. Hmm…that could explain it…

"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla

by hurryup09 on Apr 19, 2008 1:02 AM PDT up reply actions

OK, I finally read Tom's original post

Now that I understand the flawless logic behind his prognostications, I’m convinced of their absolute reliabilty. In fact, I’m taking out a second mortgage and putting it down on the Mavs as Western Conference champs & the Celtics as NBA champs.

Tom, if you’re wrong, my wife and I, our dog, and our 3 cats will be moving in with you. We love Hawaii.

"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla

by hurryup09 on Apr 19, 2008 1:12 AM PDT reply actions

Jeepers

That’s a lot of pressure. I sure hope they work out. Not that I wouldn’t mind the company. I have wireless at home so we could both do the open thread.

By the power of Greyskull, I am tominhawaii, the Ever-Living.

by tominhawaii on Apr 19, 2008 1:14 AM PDT up reply actions

Double negative

I believe you meant to write, “Not that I’d mind the company.” Or DID you? Using a double negative could be a sneaky, backdoor way of covering your bases in case your brilliant statistical system fails and my family arrives at your doorstep.

Hmm, on second thought, I’m not taking out the second mortage. Camping out on your front lawn doesn’t sound that appealing. Instead, I’m rummaging around my car for spare change and betting THAT!

"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla

by hurryup09 on Apr 19, 2008 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions

Ahh

I hate double negatives. That one was sneaky. I did not plan on writing a double negative. I like company, but we live in a appartment so I don’t have a front lawn. This is the view from my lani though. You’ll notice the freeway, it’s nice, it a put a pillow over my head, it sounds like the ocean.

By the power of Greyskull, I am tominhawaii, the Ever-Living.

by tominhawaii on Apr 19, 2008 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions

I would love it if this all happened

I would even be forced by the sheer beauty of the event to lower my defenses and forgive tom for making me his sworn enemy many months ago. Even if it doesn’t play out this way, I am extending the proverbial olive branch to tom for developing a formula that gives raw stats the respect they deserve.

Thank you tom. May we never fight again.

PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04

by tssbro on Apr 19, 2008 9:50 AM PDT reply actions

Olive Branch Accepted

I was never mad at you, I just wanted a nemesis for some community acceptable hyperbole banter, because everyone would be in on the nemesis joke. I’m really fortunate this year to make up a playoff stat that by coincidence seems to favor a lot of the favorites. If it somehow turned out correct this season, it would be interesting to see if it would work next season where the lower jersey total would be the favorite.

Hugs

By the power of Greyskull, I am tominhawaii, the Ever-Living.

by tominhawaii on Apr 19, 2008 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Now just hold on

Enmity is good, because it creates in all a longing for peace.

When there is a deep longing for peace, that creates an opportunity for someone to step into the gap and provide peace. People will be willing to follow the person who provides peace.

Until I rule the world, enmity and warfare are to be encouraged. That way, people will truly appreciate the glories of my regime, when it comes.

I would appreciate it if the two of you would kindly resume your battles. Thank you for your assistance.

When I rule the world, Isiah Thomas will be coach and GM of the L*kers, who will be owned by someone who no one respects whose first initial is "J".

by jscot on Apr 20, 2008 12:35 AM PDT up reply actions

potential flaw

although curiously exquisite thinking, I suspect you are accounting for every player on each team, but wont those numbers change as the teams tighten their rosters during the playoffs? Certainly a team shouldnt get the points for a guy who doesnt play. Id be interested in knowing if there would be enough deviance in that formula to alter your prognostications

I fear change-- Garth

by bow4meow on Apr 19, 2008 10:08 AM PDT reply actions

Yeah

I thought about that. I think that is a tweak for the off season. So far I have only added the entire roster (I included Miles and Oden this year), and took into account the player with the highest number on various game day thread. I think adding up the starters or just the rotation is valid. So far I’ve only really applied it to the playoffs to predict the outcome. It is pretty harebrained as it is, so I am afraid it might be downright ridiculous if I apply it to an entire season.

By the power of Greyskull, I am tominhawaii, the Ever-Living.

by tominhawaii on Apr 19, 2008 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions

I think you are doing it right

Just because a player on the bench doesn’t play doesn’t mean he isn’t a resource that the coach could draw upon if needed.

If a team is losing, and their jersey numbers aren’t the right combination, a coach could substitute accordingly, to get the right jerseys in the game.

Kind of gives a new twist on playing a “big” lineup, or going with “small ball”.

When I rule the world, Isiah Thomas will be coach and GM of the L*kers, who will be owned by someone who no one respects whose first initial is "J".

by jscot on Apr 20, 2008 12:38 AM PDT up reply actions

what I meant was

TiH’s equation was prediction based, and didnt account over time and that during the course of any series, the numbers could fluctuate based on who plays and how many points change as a result. I like that the formula makes a solid prediction, but wondered if the results would be different based on the varience of each game.

"Well now, were you fellas going with all that beer?"

by bow4meow on Apr 20, 2008 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions

Interesting

To me, the prediction has to be based on the resources available to the coach. But I suppose you could, after the fact, look at something like jersey numbers per minute, and based on that evaluate the coach’s performance. If Nate doesn’t get the right guys in the game, the jersey numbers per minute will be bad.

I have little doubt that is why we started the season so poorly, and had a couple other bad spells. If Nate had properly evaluated the TiH stats, we’d be in the playoffs. Fire Nate!

When I rule the world, Isiah Thomas will be coach and GM of the L*kers, who will be owned by someone who no one respects whose first initial is "J".

by jscot on Apr 21, 2008 1:04 AM PDT up reply actions

Breaking News!!!

AP///Sources say that Carmelo Anthony has decided to change his jersey number to 666. While Anthony has not disclosed he reasons why the change was made he was heard to mention some sort of “deal”.

"Be wary of strong drink. It can make you shoot at tax collectors... and miss" Robert A. Heinlein

by 92wastheyear on Apr 19, 2008 10:11 AM PDT reply actions

LOL! I am not sure which I like more...

your breaking news or your signature. One thing is for sure – if you are going to shoot at tax collectors (or IRS agents) make darn sure that you put it right between the eyes!

43:12 Min, 9-18 FG, 4-5 FT, +14 +/-, 4 Off, 16 Rebs, 1 Ast, 1 Stl, 1 Blk, 22 Pts - LMA vs LA 4-8-08

by LaMarvelous on Apr 19, 2008 9:59 PM PDT up reply actions