The Final Stretch

Road (298W - 369L)
Timberwolves (12-48)
Supersonics (16-45)
Knicks (18-43)
Clippers (20-39)
Bucks (23-38)
Kings (27-34)
Kings (27-34)
Cavs (35-26)
Warriors (37-23)
Suns (40 - 21)
Lakers (43-18)

Home (302-261)
Timberwolves (12-48)
Grizzlies (15-46)
Clippers (20-39)
Bobcats (22-39)
Wizards (29-31)
Mavericks (39-22)
Suns (40 - 21)
Rockets (40-20)
Spurs (42-17)
Lakers (43-18)

Total 600W 630L
(feel free to double check my math, thems a lot of numbers)

One of the more striking things that pop out is the lack of 'average' teams; the polarization of really good and really bad teams with few teams in the middle. This is a reflection of the reality of the NBA this year where there's only two teams, Portland and Washington, that are within four games (plus or minus) of .500. Of the remaining 28 teams, 12 have won more than 60% of their games, and two (Cleveland and Toronto) are withing a few wins of that mark. This is offset by a huge number of bad teams, including 11 teams at or below the 40% mark, and a pathetic five teams with wins still in the teens and winning percentage under .300. I haven't looked back, but this dichotomy seems pretty extreme to me.

Portland plays nine games against teams that have won less than 40% of their games, including 5 games against teams that have won less than 30%.

On the flip side, they play 8 games against teams who have won more than 60%.

The Blazers play only two teams between those extremes, the Wizards and the Cavaliers (who are very close to 60%).

If we start by giving the Blazers a win against all the sub-40 teams, and a loss to all the over-60 teams, and split the Cavs (road) and Wizards (home) games, we get a finishing run of 10-9. However, they simply aren't playing as good as they did when they racked up all those wins in Decemeber and January.  My guess is they get in one or two upsets, but give back two to four against the bad teams.

The bulk of the difficult games are at home, which is a double edged sword. On one hand, its better this way if the Blazers are to make a real run at the playoffs. They'll need both road and home wins, so its better to play bad teams on the road, good teams at home. However, if the playoffs are out anyway, it might have been better to just play all the good teams on the road and cede those losses, but rack up wins at home against bad teams to build confidence going into the offseason. In short, this schedule is probably going to either lead a homerun or a strikeout; no base hits.

(One of the unfortunate things about the 'strikeout' scenario is it probably wouldn't even improve their draft position as the teams below them are waaaay below.)

7 out of the 11 road games are against teams with worse records than the Blazers (and with the excption of the 27-34 Kings, MUCH worse), whereas half the home games (5 of 10) are against those teams at .600 or better.  If the Blazers do get hot at home again, its possible they could go 7-3 at home and say 7-4 on the road. If Golden State (6.5 games ahead) and Denver (5.5) both go flat and play .500 ball, that would be good enough to squeak into the playoffs with a 1 game lead over the Warriors.

Unless they get really, really hot to the point they can beat veteran, peaking teams like the Spurs, Lakers, and Rockets, I just don't see them closing out better than 8-11, giving the Blazers a final record of 40-42. While disappointing based on the inflating expectations of January, this would have been considered a wildly optimistic number back in October.

What do you guys and gals think? What are your predictions given this schedule?