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The Final Stretch

Road (298W - 369L)
Timberwolves (12-48)
Supersonics (16-45)
Knicks (18-43)
Clippers (20-39)
Bucks (23-38)
Kings (27-34)
Kings (27-34)
Cavs (35-26)
Warriors (37-23)
Suns (40 - 21)
Lakers (43-18)

Home (302-261)
Timberwolves (12-48)
Grizzlies (15-46)
Clippers (20-39)
Bobcats (22-39)
Wizards (29-31)
Mavericks (39-22)
Suns (40 - 21)
Rockets (40-20)
Spurs (42-17)
Lakers (43-18)

Total 600W 630L
(feel free to double check my math, thems a lot of numbers)

One of the more striking things that pop out is the lack of 'average' teams; the polarization of really good and really bad teams with few teams in the middle. This is a reflection of the reality of the NBA this year where there's only two teams, Portland and Washington, that are within four games (plus or minus) of .500. Of the remaining 28 teams, 12 have won more than 60% of their games, and two (Cleveland and Toronto) are withing a few wins of that mark. This is offset by a huge number of bad teams, including 11 teams at or below the 40% mark, and a pathetic five teams with wins still in the teens and winning percentage under .300. I haven't looked back, but this dichotomy seems pretty extreme to me.

Portland plays nine games against teams that have won less than 40% of their games, including 5 games against teams that have won less than 30%.

On the flip side, they play 8 games against teams who have won more than 60%.

The Blazers play only two teams between those extremes, the Wizards and the Cavaliers (who are very close to 60%).

If we start by giving the Blazers a win against all the sub-40 teams, and a loss to all the over-60 teams, and split the Cavs (road) and Wizards (home) games, we get a finishing run of 10-9. However, they simply aren't playing as good as they did when they racked up all those wins in Decemeber and January.  My guess is they get in one or two upsets, but give back two to four against the bad teams.

The bulk of the difficult games are at home, which is a double edged sword. On one hand, its better this way if the Blazers are to make a real run at the playoffs. They'll need both road and home wins, so its better to play bad teams on the road, good teams at home. However, if the playoffs are out anyway, it might have been better to just play all the good teams on the road and cede those losses, but rack up wins at home against bad teams to build confidence going into the offseason. In short, this schedule is probably going to either lead a homerun or a strikeout; no base hits.

(One of the unfortunate things about the 'strikeout' scenario is it probably wouldn't even improve their draft position as the teams below them are waaaay below.)

7 out of the 11 road games are against teams with worse records than the Blazers (and with the excption of the 27-34 Kings, MUCH worse), whereas half the home games (5 of 10) are against those teams at .600 or better.  If the Blazers do get hot at home again, its possible they could go 7-3 at home and say 7-4 on the road. If Golden State (6.5 games ahead) and Denver (5.5) both go flat and play .500 ball, that would be good enough to squeak into the playoffs with a 1 game lead over the Warriors.

Unless they get really, really hot to the point they can beat veteran, peaking teams like the Spurs, Lakers, and Rockets, I just don't see them closing out better than 8-11, giving the Blazers a final record of 40-42. While disappointing based on the inflating expectations of January, this would have been considered a wildly optimistic number back in October.

What do you guys and gals think? What are your predictions given this schedule?

0 recs  |  Comment 13 comments

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I think 40 wins is a LITTLE pessimistic ...
but not by much. A couple of weeks ago, given the way we've been playing, I started to set my sights on 42 wins.

Given the schedule you laid out (and you did a great job, I might add), I would expect us to beat the REALLY bad teams on the road and split with the Kings. 6-5 on the road seems reasonable, and we have been giving even the good teams trouble at home, so 6-4 seems reasonable there. That gives us 12-9 to close out the season, putting us at 43-39. But I agree that I expect at least one slip up along the way to a team we should beat, leaving us with 42-40. That is significant, and would get us to the playoffs most years. Definitely something for all Blazer fans to root for in the last 5 weeks of the season.

The one thing I haven't looked at is how many back-to-backs we have left, as that would definitely affect our end total ...

by bfan on Mar 6, 2008 3:45 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

We have a rather horrifying seven
back to backs remaining.

The first group of them not so bad, with Knicks,  Minnesota and Clippers on the back end.

But the last three are Houston (home) Dallas (home) and Phoenix (away), so that could be bad.

We are 7-7 (I think ) in the second game of back to backs so far, though.

by Section323 on Mar 6, 2008 7:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm sticking with my first da kine
http://www.blazersedge.com/comments/2007/10/26/85358/814/7#7

I said 42 wins and the playoffs.  I guess I was wrong about the playoffs but I still expect 42 wins.

"Last night in my dreams, I saw your face again, We were there in the sun, on a white, sandy beach of Hawaii" - Israel Kamakawiwo'ole

by tominhawaii on Mar 6, 2008 3:46 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Well, it wasn't my prediction at the start of the
season, but I'd have to go with you... I say we end up with 42, maybe 41 wins, and don't make the playoffs... on that topic, crazy how the Rockets keep winning w/o Yao, wonder what Fatty would say about that and what it will mean come playoff time considering his prior assertions.  Fatty, can you answer (via XarXar of course) I'm curious?

by drawingjeremy on Mar 6, 2008 5:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I feel that 42 wins would
be a great milestone, at least mentally for next year.

40-42 is like "Darn just missed it but there is always next year, and we werent supposed to do that well this year anyways"

41-41 is like "Ok blech, not good or bad, just blech"

42-40 is like "YES!! our first winning season in like forever. We are going to ROCK next year!! YEAH baby!!"

Anybody else get those same feelings?

The NBA

Where Kyle Korver happens.

by SpyderRyder on Mar 6, 2008 5:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Your picture wont work for me for some reason
did you get mine to work for you?
The NBA, where Von Wafer happens

by JTDuck22 on Mar 6, 2008 5:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Howzit
Can you use a photo hosted by Flickr?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/89909001@N00/762431315/
You should not retain, copy or use this comment or any attachment for any purpose, nor disclose all or any part of the contents to any other person.

by tominhawaii on Mar 6, 2008 5:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

yes you can
this is the url or that picture

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1005/762431315_2157da2b74.jpg

just include that in the html tag that was posted.  

by Philthyanimal on Mar 6, 2008 7:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I went to pixinate.com
Like you or D man said to and resized and cropped the thing. I did not try yours on mine though.
The NBA

Where Kyle Korver happens.

by SpyderRyder on Mar 6, 2008 5:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

how did it work?
pixinate....I heard about it but never used it. I was the one that told you about it. Looks like it would be a good alternative that is more friendly to use than photoshop.

by Philthyanimal on Mar 6, 2008 7:28 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

whoops credit where credit it due first off
Worked pretty good good layout and a link to webshots that comes up with the url you need to post it.
The NBA

Where Kyle Korver happens.

by SpyderRyder on Mar 6, 2008 9:18 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The NBA: Where Kyle Korver happens
First off I hete the Jazz and all of SLC as I wasted an entire year of my life there before coming back to Oregon and the best city in the world Portland!!

Here is the link for a full size pic:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/photo?slug=8847cc80b59828a7ab025835671f7451-getty-76075672ds003_jazz_two lvs&prov=getty

The funny thing is look who is not even dunking on him but lay-uping? on him. Dwight Howard you may ask? LeBron perhaps? Maybe Vince Carter? No how about Rashad "fricken" McCants of all people.

You should check out the interview that the local SLC news had on him, he's hugging a pillow the entire interview and his entire family has the initials KK creepy if you ask me.

The NBA

Where Kyle Korver happens.

by SpyderRyder on Mar 6, 2008 10:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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