How 'bout Thabo from Cabo, the new Mr. Intangibles?

by dp8039 on Mar 30, 2008 5:06 PM PDT Comment 9 comments

If Martell is not the answer at SF, then there should be an alternative. From what others have read, and what I think, is that the Blazers need a SF who can defend perimeter threats and shoot from the outside on offense. This seems like an easy enough task to find. The problem is that, assuming the Blazers will not give up Roy, Oden, or LMA, the team won't be able to get a premier SF through trade. Plus, the team is unlikely to sign a really expensive FA this offseason. The team may try to draft a SF. But, that would rob the team of drafting a PG with its lottery pick and anyway, the players expected to go in the middle of the first round do not fit the defense/shooting SF type the team needs. So then if the team is to get said SF, it needs to do some bargain shopping. Searching for defenders is tough because there are no comprehensive defensive statistics. Consequently, we have to rely on our eyes and what others say to judge. But, there is an extra dimension in this. Call it the 'aura of intangibles'. Basically, this means that the player just has 'it': an intelligent approach that ensures all the little things get done. Shane Battier has 'it'. Watch a Rockets game. At least 5 times, I'll bet the announcers mention how smart he is, or how he just knows what to do. Now, I'm not saying that doesn't exist. Quite the opposite . Battier really does have a high basketball IQ and that enables him to make good judgments and he also plays that defense we need. Problem is a player who has 'it' becomes very expensive. The Rockets had to trade Rudy Gay to get him and would not part with him for pennies. The Blazers need to find their guy with 'it' even before that player gets the reputation from the league or even his team. To wit, I think Thabo Sefolosha may have 'it'. He came into the league as a 'defense first' player and is athletic and intense enough to fill the role of defensive stopper. His basketball intelligence has also been praised. On offense, he is more of a slasher at this point (which can be good. The swingmen currently on roster have a tendency to stand around and watch Roy do the work), but the 3-ball is in his arsenal. Currently (according to basketball-reference), he is 28 for 77 from distance.

The Bulls have moved him into the regular rotation this season. He averages about 20 min/game, but the team has plenty of other swingmen (Nocioni, Deng, Hughes, Gordon-if they keep him, Duhon). So, he may be expendable for the right price. Since the Bulls are paper thin up front, the price would almost certainly include Frye. Also, if the team fears that Gordon walks, Jack. So, Frye + Jack + maybe a draft pick in the future for Sefolosha. Then, I would trade Martell for one of those undersized, rebounding beasts of a power forward (a la Millsap, Maxiell, Glen Davis), but that's a story for another day. This of course would open the door for Sefolosha starting, in a addition to getting a strength-based power forward off the bench.

Oh, and I know Thabo's from Switzerland. But, Thabo from Switzerland does not rhyme.

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No?

Thabo has less potential and production than Martell at this point and he is 3 years old than him.

Also keep in mind the Bulls are a lottery team now. They are playing guys to boost their trade value.

And trading Rudy Gay for Shane Battier was a dumb move in the long run. The Rockets are a team continuously hampered by injuries to their two best players, they also suffer scoring droughts. Shane Battier is not, nor will he ever be a better player than Rudy Gay. He's a great intangibles guy, he can shoot the three, he defends well but he was not worth a future allstar (in Gay). There are plenty of players with intangibles (see Ime), that can be had for a small price.

A defensive player is not worth 3 a draft pick, Frye, Jack, and Martell. You can pick up good defenders in the second round if you need too. Likewise you can find a power forward who can rebound in the second round as well. See Joey Dorsey.

by Dheepan on Mar 30, 2008 5:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

a lot of that depends on your views on Martell

I would agree that he has better offensive potential that Thabo. But, IMHO he won't realize that potential anyway with the Blazers, because he'll never be the first, second, or third option. If you want to say he'll be a productive scorer, than he has to be put into a system where he can score. It's that simple. But he won't be in that system with the Blazers. And if he would become a better defender, again, he would be more valuable than a defensive-minded player. But, Webster, at the very least, is not known for his defense. I'll defer to reputation and statements made by analysts here because there really aren't statistics on the matter. And so, if the need is for a defensive player, a defensive player will best fill the void.

You bring up Udoka as a comparison, and it is a valid one. But, at age 29, when he was at Portland, he had his best year. He averaged 8 pts , 4 rbs in 28 minutes. In his age 23 year, Sefolosha has averaged 7 pts, 4 rbs in only 20 min. So, he will outproduce Udoka on offense. Comparing defense between defensive specialists is beyond me. But, the potential is there for Sefolosha to easily eclipse Udoka's production.

As for an actual trade. In my head, I can see the Bulls asking for a PF/C right off the bat. The Blazers only spare one is Frye. But that doesn't make the ledger even. Someone else has to go. If the Blazers plan to consolidate their PG situation, one of them has to go. Either Blake, Jack, or Rodriguez. Blake is the most stable and Rodriguez does not have much value. So that leaves Jack. And as for trading Martell, he has to go somewhere for something to open up the door as a starter. What happens with him is not central to my point. For his sake, I hope he goes somewhere where he can develop as a scorer. And, unless you want to trade him somewhere along with one of Blake, Jack, Rodriguez for another PG, what else would you trade for him? Another swingman?

by dp8039 on Mar 30, 2008 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

trade equality

I feel like Channing Frye for Thabo Sefoloshivish is decent straight up. How is Shelongorium worth so much more than Channing Frye.

Frye is a young talented player who WILL improve in this league.

Also I think we should look at Martell another season, especially playing around Greg. Who will do even more for Marty's sweet stroke.

"Stick a knife in 'em, their done!" ~ Mike Rice

by courtsideerrandboy on Mar 31, 2008 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

fair

I'll go on record as saying I don't think Frye is very good. and i think Thabo will be a very good player. Surely I'm biased, I'll admit. On a more empirical level, I've ran a statistical analysis on Thabo's and Frye's improvement this year. I analyzed minutes played and points per game. Thabo played in 60 games. Let's first look at minutes played per game. If we plot all of the data points on a graph (ie, if we graphed all of his minutes played per game, with games on the x-axis and minutes on the y), the slope of that line is .579. This means he is playing about an extra half-minute every game. The R-Square (which determines the strength of correlation between minutes and games) is .75. Taken by itself, this means little, but is more useful for comparative purposes. Frye's slop , on the other hand, is only .32. So, his playing time has not increased as much this year. More damning though is his R-Square, which is only .58. So he's sorta been all over the map this year. It's tough to say there has been a correlation between games played and his minute increase. Points per game yield similar results. Thabo's slope has been steeper, .21 to .12. And his R-Square suggests a stronger correlation, .66 to .46. Plus, even though Thabo's been improving more on offense, remember, he's a defensive specialist. Just going by reputation and traditional scouting, it appears as if Thabo's a more valuable defender than Frye. So it could be said that Thabo is more valuable on the defensive end and will be more valuable than Frye on the offensive side within a year or two (remember, Thabo's also a year younger). Hence, Thabo is worth more than just Frye.

by dp8039 on Apr 1, 2008 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

hey

Y'all want some pudding

by BenMatlockTheLawyer on Mar 30, 2008 6:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Jack gotta go

I am not even going to waste my time defending it. If you don't see why you are wearing rose colored glasses. Watch every game where he has the ball in the 4th quarter and he will make more then 1 error that proves to be big for the team.

Martell on the other hand, yes if you can get better for him and someone else do it. But the kid is going to be an asset in a few more years more then jack. Martell is growing you can see it. He is getting better, no doubt and he is young. Jack is not improving, yet has some skills that make him highly desirable. If you can look past the bad defense, stupid turn overs, and how he always gets in the air with no where to go.

I say we get another sf, a real talent or glue guy that is proven, keep martell and use him as a weapon. The "sniper" will fit him nicely.

by blazhead on Mar 31, 2008 9:54 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Thabo is very talented...

I remember reading about Thabo in his ESPN draft bio, and other draft bio's. Thabo seems to be a "Prototype" long lean swing-man who plays "D", handles the ball well, and has a pure shooting stroke... a little triple-threat action. Then I saw him a few times and I was sold. You can just see how naturally the game comes to him.

If we could get him from Chicago, that would be a nice move, however he is just as much a 2-guard as he is a small forward. We have Roy, Rudy and Martell right now. I am not willing to get rid of Martell just yet, and gamble on another gamble. But, that being said, if we can procure another solid point guard option while moving Jack and Frye to Chicago, I think that Thabo would be a very valuable asset to have, even if there is some duplication on our roster.

Below is ESPN Insiders old draft bio from when Sefolosha was drafted:

Chad Ford's Analysis: We've had Sefolosha going to the Bulls for several weeks and they finally got their guy. The Bulls have traded the No. 16 to the Sixers for Sefolosha. They need a big two guard and Sefolosha is a great fit -- though, in my opinion, not as great as Ronnie Brewer. Sefolosha is very solid in every aspect of the game. He can shoot, play point forward, play defense and get up and down the floor. And he's ready to play now.

Draft Projection: Lottery to mid-first round

Similarities: Josh Howard

Notes: We've been writing about Switzerland's Thabo Sefolosha for the last several years and it looks as though some of the potential is finally starting to turn into production. He is playing in the Italian League and having a career season, averaging 12 ppg and 6.9 rpg for Angelico Biella. He's shooting 41 percent from three this season.

Positives: Sefolosha is a lean 6-foot-6 athletic swingman who excels in the open floor. He's an excellent ball handler and passer who has really improved his shot over the past season. Very long. Good at just about every aspect of the game. Excellent basketball IQ.

Negatives: He still needs to work on his shooting off the dribble and needs to continue to add strength, but add his name to a list of international players teams are intrigued by for the late first round.

Summary: Tradition says a few teams late in the draft won't want a rookie on their roster and would prefer to develop their asset in Europe. Sefolosha is the type of player who will get a long look in that type of situation. Could go to a team like the Suns at No. 21, the Lakers at No. 26 or the Knicks at No. 29.
Scouts Inc. Evaluation: One of the top international wing players in the draft, Sefolosha had a very productive season in Italy. At 6-6, he gives you a lot of options on the wing. He is an excellent ball-handler and passer. He's very good in the open court and finishes well when he gets to the basket. With his athletic frame and ability to score, he's a bit like a poor man's Jason Richardson.

He has good ability to come off downscreens and make shots and is tough to deal with in the open court. Because most of his jumpers came off ball-reversals and spot-ups, he needs to work on his ball-handling, especially shooting the ball off of the dribble. NBA teams could also utilize Sefolosha as a post-up wing, making him a tough player to guard.

There has not been as much talk about Sefolosha, who is being overshadowed by guys like Bargnani, Splitter, Fernandez and Rodriquez. But Sefolosha has the potential to have as good an NBA career as any international player in his draft. Look for him to go late in the first round.

by Scotty the Mastermind on Mar 31, 2008 10:14 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

No !

Back to your fantasy GM on some video
game and leave the roster to KP and the blazer
brass. They are professionals and know that
athletic 6'7" players who have a great shooting
touch take a few years to develop. Martell is
also a good kid and fits in well with the
current team chemistry. He's played better
defense this year, rebounded and has started
attacking the rim at times. He needs to
continue to work on his ball handling, D and
movement without the ball. When GO comes back,
we will need that outside shooting threat even
more than this season.
Draft Collison at PG. He will give us a
proven leader, excellent perimeter defender
and another ballhandler who can break down the
defender off the dribble. He's scoring now, but
is really a excellent team player. In addition,
he can run the fastbreak and has great stamina.

It's GO time !

by walkoff41 on Mar 31, 2008 12:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

collison

we wont be able to get collison in the draft, but westbrook is solid in the open floor and was an all-defensive team player. If we can't make a Calderon splash, draft that kid, and send Jack on his way.

I appreciate JJ's heart and energy, but the rest of the game kills me.

"Stick a knife in 'em, their done!" ~ Mike Rice

by courtsideerrandboy on Mar 31, 2008 12:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs