I've been reading a lot about expectations lately (all year, in fact) and most especially how some fans have unrealistic expectations. It got me thinking about how close many NBA games. So I took it into my head to examine our record in close games against San Antonio (as an undisputed winning, veteran, model team) and most especially examine what the press quotes are in these close games.

For this diary, let us define "razor thin games" as those that either finished in OT or were settled in regulation by 3 points or less. In examining this:

1. What is Portland's record?
   
2. Is our propensity for close games higher than others?
   
3. Assuming these games are essentially a coin flip, are we too hard on ourselves in a loss...
   
4. And are we too jubilant in a win?

According to what I can glean from ESPN.com, San Antonio has played in 14 razor-thin games and has a record of 8-6. Meanwhile, Portland has played in 16 razor thin games.

Already, this is intriguing: I don't regard that Portland, with its "immature" team, to show a significantly higher number of close games--irrespective of record--than the vaunted San Antonio. We like to say that good teams close out other teams and have a "killer instinct." Maybe, I guess, but it sure seems like San Antonio failed to close out as many games as Portland.

Let's move on. Portland's record in those 16 razor thin games was a phenomenal 13-3. Whoa! That's a significantly better record than San Antonio. Who has the killer instinct now? Sure, many of those games were during the winning streaks... but let's look at games after February 1. During that time, Portland's record in razor-thin games is 5-1. Still awesome! Not only does Portland not have a greater propensity for razor-thin games but they won far more of them than San Antonio.

Now, let's look at the press. Here are some quotes after the wins:

"Opponent was frustrated, needed to make something happen and we did it, our defense was better and we scored,"
"Intensity, six or seven guys played well"
"Able to get it, wasn't easy, patient, calm, believed in ourselves,
"They're a hot team, we're maturing, very confident,
"Luckily I was able to get it down, Portland made more plays,
"Defensively, we had no answer, tonight we got outscrapped, Toronto wanted it more, we've got to win these games, moral victories don't help too much"
"Perfect execution, made another big shot, Portland's bench outplayed us,"
"That's a very good Portland team, very well coached, disappointed with 1st half effort,"
"Cleveland rode a wave and got the win,"
"Made an unbelievable comeback, Offensively we were ragged and needed our guards,
"This was a tough game,
"We've got to fight through, Portland won but we had our chances down the stretch, we have to stay focused, I really don't see what Chicago could've done differently."
"Portland wouldn't be denied a win, we were fortunate tonight, we've got to grow up,"
"We've got a lot of guys who can make shots, we continue to improve, Aldridge made some huge plays,

Now some quotes after the losses:

"Defensively, we had no answer, tonight we got outscrapped, Toronto wanted it more, we've got to win these games, moral victories don't help too much"
"Perfect execution, made another big shot, Portland's bench outplayed us,"
"That's a very good Portland team, very well coached, disappointed with 1st half effort,"
"Cleveland rode a wave and got the win,"
"Made an unbelievable comeback, Offensively we were ragged and needed our guards,
"This was a tough game,"

I don't know what I expected here... but it seems like this team expects to win the close games, appears a bit upset to be in close games, and is really hard on itself when it loses close games. This is a team that expects to win.

So what's my point?

My point is this: Portland's not going to make the playoffs but I resist this notion that it's a lack of maturity or a lack of "killer instinct." My take from this--though we're only comparing to one other team so take it with at least one grain of salt--is that what we're missing is consistency and player fit. For some reason, this team is not able to win as many games as San Antonio when they're not razor-thin and that says to me something more like fatigue, or not following marching orders, or just not able to execute every night. Or, perhaps, inconsistent lineups.

Is that "maturity"? The inability to win consistently in the non razor-thin games? To execute every play perfectly? Maybe. What "maturity" doesn't appear to mean is the ability to play or execute under pressure.

I don't know what the real problem is. You tell me. But I think this points to something that it isn't.

In any event, I think we need to pay more attention to how good this team has performed in close situations.