Everyone seems to want to write a diary advocating trading Joel, Travis, Channing, Jarrett, Sergio, etc.

I have decided to write a diary giving all the definitive answers, to save everyone all this time and effort, and save Dave bandwidth.  Tomorrow, I will cure cancer.  Next week, world peace.  Next year, I'll complete my thorough exploration of the universe, providing mankind with a complete guide -- in every language, of course.  (I'm an expert on outer space, having so much of it dwelling between my ears.)

For purposes of discussion, I am going to make five assumptions:

1. Darius Miles will not be on the roster next year.  A) They would be unlikely to pursue retirement if they were not pretty sure about this.  B) If his retirement does not go through, they will agree a buyout, freeing up a roster space.
   
2. Rudy Fernandez will come over, to help us as we "Pursue Everything".  (I hope they replace the "Rise With Us" slogan next year with that.)
   
3. Wafer will not be retained.  
   
4. James Jones will not opt out of the last year of his contract.  A) Injury problems and his recent drop-off reduce his marketability, and he's smart enough to know it.  B) He likes this team, and seems to be well liked.  C) He sees the future and wants to be part of it.
   
5. Roy, LMA, and Oden will not be traded.  Anyone else might be if the right deal comes along.

DEFINITIVE ANSWER #1.  WE HAVE ROSTER CONGESTION.

1. Based on the above assumptions, we will have one free roster spot, which will be taken by our first round pick.
   
2. We can cut Josh, but that only frees up one more spot.  No other players are likely to be cut, because they all have some trade value.  Josh may as well, though not much at this point.
   
3. We have four second round picks.  We might draft a Euro or two, but not likely to draft four.
   
4. There is value in bringing Koponen over to play D League for two years.  Otherwise, we risk him going to a better Euro league and getting locked in, and possibly never coming over.  It would not be a bad thing to have a roster spot for him.

DEFINITIVE ANSWER #2.  USING ALL OUR DRAFT PICKS WON'T HAPPEN UNLESS THERE IS A TRADE.

1. If McRoberts stays, we have no roster spots available for any second round picks.  If he goes, we only have one available.
   
2. We have multiple early second round picks, which are assets which have value.
   
3. If we use those picks (which have value) to draft players when all roster spots are locked down, we are just throwing away the picks, and KP doesn't throw away assets when he can trade them.

DEFINITIVE ANSWER #3.  IF PLAYERS DON'T GET MINUTES, THEY LOSE TRADE VALUE.

1. Opposing GMs say, "He's not even good enough to get on the floor for you, he's not worth as much as you are saying."
   
2. No one doubts that Sergio has lost trade value this year for this very reason.

DEFINITIVE ANSWER #4.  WE HAVE MULTIPLE PLAYERS THAT WILL LOSE TRADE VALUE IF NOT TRADED THIS SUMMER, BARRING MAJOR INJURIES NEXT YEAR.

1. We have a minutes crunch at PG (Steve, Jarrett, Sergio).  None will be eligible for D League next year, so none can get minutes and keep their value up that way.  One, at least, will decrease in trade value next year if not traded this year.
   
2. We have a minutes crunch at SG (Brandon, Rudy, Jarrett, Martell?).  Someone's trade value will drop.
   
3. We have a minutes crunch at forward (LMA gets 35 minutes, leaving 61 minutes between Channing, Travis, Martell, and James).  Someone's minutes take a big hit, meaning a big drop in trade value.  This could be alleviated if James Jones opts out, but as I said above, that is unlikely.
   
4. Our first round pick this year may impact the minutes crunch at one of these positions.  The only way he doesn't is if he is a Euro or a human victory cigar.

DEFINITIVE ANSWER #6.  CAP SPACE IS A TRADEABLE ASSET.

1. The point of freeing cap space is to acquire a player who can help you.
   
2. There is little guarantee that you will be able to acquire that player via free agency.  Players may stay with current teams.  Restricted free agents may not be free -- their teams may match your offer.
   
3. If we are able to acquire the player KP wants via trade without giving up pieces we can't afford to give up, the loss of cap space is not a show-stopper.  It just means that we give up that asset as part of the deal to acquire the player we want.

DEFINITIVE ANSWER #7.  KP WILL LOOK TO MAKE A TRADE IMPACTING THE GUARD POSITIONS.

1. To go into the season with our current guard roster plus Rudy guarantees that at least two players will lose trade value over the next year.  KP won't lightly waste assets by waiting to trade someone until he can't get anything for them, and this is foreseeable.
   
2. Anyone can see that we can use some improvement at PG, especially on defense.  This means that we are likely to either trade for a PG or draft a good defensive PG.  If we draft a PG, the minutes crunch is worse at PG, which again ensures a foreseeable loss in tradeable value, dictating a move this summer.
   
3. There is no guarantee that, drafting at #13, we can acquire a PG that can help us.  Therefore, we will likely trade for an established PG or trade up to acquire one of the quality PGs in the draft.  Either one is possible.
   
4. The guard that we give up in a trade will be determined, in part, by the GM who is doing a deal with us.  It is easy to say, "Trade Jarrett" or "Trade Sergio".  But if we are making a deal for a Devin Harris, or to trade up in the draft, a big factor in the makeup of the deal will be which of those the opposing GM wants.
   
5. Rudy is tradeable, especially if it brings us the PG that KP wants.  Many people will say, "No, no!"  If Rudy is traded for Devin Harris, however, or to move up to #2 and pick Rose, they might say, "Well, OK, maybe."  In such a case, Jarrett's role would be limited to back up Brandon and fill in as backup PG if one of our top two PGs is injured.

DEFINITIVE ANSWER #8.  KP MAY WELL TRY TO MAKE A TRADE IMPACTING THE FORWARD POSITIONS.

1. We may not acquire another forward via trade, but KP is likely to be prepared to include a forward in any deal to move up in the draft or acquire a PG, so as to move assets before they lose value.
   
2. The least likely forwards to be traded (outside of LMA) are Travis and Channing.  Both are content (for now, anyway) to be backups.  Both are able to function in two positions, which gives us some protection in case of injury.
   
3. The most likely forward to be traded is Travis, because his trade value is probably much higher than that of any of the others, and he's the guy most GMs will want.
   
4. Points #2 & 3 contradict each other.  Most of you knew that, but I thought I'd better point it out so someone doesn't write a nasty comment about it.  (Someone probably will anyway, and I bet I know who.)
   
5. The least likely forward to be traded is Channing, because he hasn't helped his trade value this year.  When opposing GMs look at our roster, they don't say, "Oh, the guy they have that we really, really need is Channing."  This makes me happy, because I like Channing, and want him to stay.

DEFINITIVE ANSWER #9.  WE WILL PROBABLY NOT GET CALDERON.

1. For us to get Calderon, someone has to sign him to such a high contract that Toronto can't afford him, Toronto has to match, and then trade him to us.
   
2. Since Toronto has said they will match any offers, he is unlikely to attract the interest of those who have that much money to offer.
   
3. We can't offer him more than the MLE.  Toronto will keep him if that is all he is being paid.
   
4. If he is so expensive that Toronto can't afford him, it is likely that KP will judge that his defensive liabilities make him not good value for money for us, given what we would have to give up to give him and the impact on our salary cap.

DEFINITIVE ANSWER #10.  JOEL IS UNLIKELY TO BE TRADED THIS SUMMER.

1. We do not yet know how healthy Oden will be, or how quickly he will adjust to the NBA game.
   
2. We do not want to be reliant on Channing Frye as our main option at center.  Nor do we want to rely on him to provide significant backup minutes at center.  Been there, done that.
   
3. Therefore, any trade this summer including Joel has to get us a decent center in return, which lessens the value we can get for him at other positions.
   
4. This could still happen, but is unlikely.
   
5. If Oden plays 35+ minutes, and averages 20 ppg, 15 rpg, and 3 bpg, Joel could be traded by the trade deadline next year.  I hope not, but could happen, for the right deal.

I hope that covers all your questions.  I have spoken.  So it is written, so let it be done.