Trade Outlaw

by ChrisB803 on Mar 25, 2008 8:50 AM PDT Comment 22 comments

I'm not flaming or looking for outraged remarks, hear me out:

Having read blzrfan's excellent recap of last night's game, and our lack of offensive variety and defensive accumen, it got me thinking. Everyone says what we need is a better defensive point guard who can still shoot pretty well, get to the rim and distribute the rock from time to time. We're fine with the offense running through Roy a good percentage of the time, and I think most everyone is pretty satisfied with the play of Steve Blake (but he'd be more useful in the second unit as a stabilizing influence). The general consensus at the moment seems to be that Jack should be traded in the off-season, while he still has that 'upside' that gives him even marginal trade value. Much longer of what he's doing now and we're likely to get next to nothing out of him.

Not to be too harsh on Jarrett, but... let's be realistic, the guy has been a disaster at PG. He might be better off going somewhere that can play him as a small shooting guard, or who doesn't need... you know... defense, or shooting ability, or...

However, Jack alone will not be near enough to land us that PG we NEED, of course, which means other assets need to be included. Maybe one of those is a first or second-round draft pick or two, but the odds are a higher-echelon player is going to need to be sent packing to get that PG-of-the-future we're all drooling over. Perhaps a Jose Calderon or something similar.

Among our tradeable assets, only Outlaw has lived up to his contract, and probably has a higher trade value at the moment than his skill-set deserves. Blasphemy? Perhaps. But in my admittedly limited basketball IQ it seems as if Outlaw is, far too often, a very uni-dimensional player. Despite his freakish athletisism he FAR too often settles for the jump shot. He looks great when they're dropping, but when he's cold like he has been the last couple of weeks, he looks downright miserable... And he has simply refused to take advantage of his ability to get to the basket.

Martell, for all his other faults, appears to sincerely be trying to round out his game. He's one of the few people on the offensive side of the court who is ALWAYS moving. Seriously, he may not score consistently yet, but I would HATE to have to guard this guy because he just doesn't stop cutting and setting screens. I really think with added maturity and continued work with Bill Bayno and other coaches, Martell has the IQ to become a pretty consistent 14 PPG type of player, and will probably add 5 boards and a few assists to that as well.

So, that's the long way around saying I think the Blazers' continued insistance on Outlaw being part of the future is really nothing more than an attempt to keep other teams thinking highly of him. Other than Jarrett Jack, I think Travis is the most likely player to be moved this Summer, and I think it would be a good move.

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Doubtful...

Why trade him when he is cheap and we can move him to SF (solving his rebound situationsimply because we won't be relying on him as much), if we move martell to SG and Oden comes back.
He's not just an athletic freak, but he creates huge match-up problems for almost every team that he comes up against, and is the only other player on this team aside from Roy who can create his own shot.
I think Nate has kind of forgotten about him in these past few weeks and has been focusing on developing Martell, who has obviously needed it. For the majority of this season Martell has not been performing and even lost his starting spot for a few games. Nate is once again looking towards next year, and for Martell to become comfortable and put together more nights like last night.
We have Outlaw start the game on the bench and start Martell at SF, but in the fourth we move Martell to the SG, and we move Roy to the PG spot. Then next year we have a fourth quarter team of Roy, Martell, Outlaw, Aldridge, and Oden, pretty sweet right?
I haven't swallowed the Calderon kool-aid, and think that he is much to similar of a player to Blake to really have a huge impact if he comes here. I do concede that Calderon is a better player than Blake, but he would maybe reduce our TO by 1 a game, maybe? Toronto has 6% more assists when calderon is on the court, so he does make a difference for Toronto, but I think that his high assist numbers also has a lot to do with Bosh, who accounts for a 3% difference in assists.
Outlaw does drive to the lane, or atleast opens the lane as when he is on the court we shoot 8 extra foul shots, but the biggest issue is that Outlaw needs to learn to box out, we have an 8.2% net loss in defensive rebounding when Outlaw is in the game, if we move him from PF to SF this is no longer his burden, and he can stay out of the defensive key if he needs to.

Sum up: Basically it doesn't seem like Calderon will solve our PG problem, he seems kind of overrated to me, and travis outlaw is awesome, someone who can create his own shot, and the lineup of roy, martell, outlaw, aldridge, and oden, is just too awesome for me to give up.

TheOdenator

by TheOdenator on Mar 25, 2008 9:29 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Dont forget

that Rudy is coming over, so I think Jack will go, and another player.

by RipCity on Mar 25, 2008 7:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There have been several discussions of this

Outlaw's trade value is high, and with Oden back, Frye moves to PF exclusively. Hello, playing time crunch.

If Martell and Jones stay, someone's minutes get cut. Travis is very valuable, but his trade value is possibly at a peak right now.

But it all depends on what we get for him. And I'm not convinced on Calderon, either. We need a PG who plays >defense< and Calderon isn't a great defender. I'd much rather get Harris, if possible.

I'm frequently right, but always certain

by jscot on Mar 25, 2008 9:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Someone must go

Outlaw
Webster
Jones
Frye
Jack
Sergio
McRob
Wafer
Blake

Those are the players that might be moved by the Blazers this summer according to my sources, (read: Me, myself, and I). I don't think they all will be traded, however someone if not someones from that group will not be with the Blazers next year. Some because they are not good enough to be in the teams long term plans, and some because their value is high and to get a good player, you sometimes have to give up a good player.

I don't think Reaf will get moved, because I believe the Blazers really want him for his contract. I don't think Joel will be moved because I don't think the Blazers are ready to turn the center spot over to great for 40 mins a game yet, (although that could change by the trading deadline or next offseason). And ofcourse I don't think they will move Roy, LMA, or Oden for obvious reasons.

I like all of those players I mentioned, however some people will have to go, and I wish them the best.

by usmcr3049 on Mar 25, 2008 10:08 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

According to Mr. Memyself Andi (my source)

you are right, but that deep throat adds Blazers movements will only look for improvement in PG position. We are not in a hurry with our young players. Or we get something really good for PG or we only add Oden and Rudy.

A gatherins of sheperds, and one dead sheep.

by amlmart1 on Mar 25, 2008 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Outlaw has had a tough stretch lately...

for sure. I often wonder why he doesn't drive the lane more as he is quick and can hop out of the gym, and I've come to the conclusion that he's too light. You know how LeBron drives and the defenders bounce off of him... it's kinda like that, just the exact opposite. When Outlaw draws contact, his body careens away from the space he was aiming for. This ricochet effect is detrimental to his desired outcome, and often leads to the much harder fadeaway jumper.

The dude needs to put on weight.

I can't see us moving him, but I can't say I'd be devastated if we did.

Can't we all just get along?

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Mar 25, 2008 10:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I've noticed this too...

I'm not sure if weight is the answer though... same w/ LMA. I don't think weight will help as much, I think it's more learning how to play through the contact IMO. LMA seems to be figuring it out in the last few weeks, and it's great to watch!

With Travis, it seems like he doesn't power-up before going up. That last step (with a lot of great finisher) seems to be one where they slow down their horizontal motion and go more up (as opposed to out). Travis for whatever reason, seems to just careen forward bouncing like a pinball off players.

Anyway, my .02. :) I think it's something that can be learned, and Travis has been great progressing his 1 on 1 game, so I'm guessing he can become a better finisher in traffic.

by ljm on Mar 25, 2008 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

On 1080 last night

Jason Quick was giving his pre-game talk like he always does game days and had some interesting info. He was saying that the Blazers staff has been telling Martell they want him to be a "sniper", meaning 3's at big spots in the game. Also, they really want him to work on being a defensive stopper (read: adequately guard Kobe, LeBron, Melo, etc). So pretty much they want him to be a Raja Bell type. And if he can do that, it'd be great. That's what they want out of a starting SF.

So with that in mind, if you're choosing between Martell and Trout, what would be best? With Martell, you can see that he could possibly develop that kind of defensive game. Trout? Not so much. Plus, I agree with chrisb803, Trout does settle for the jumper too much instead of driving the lane and taking advantage of the bigger, slower PF guarding him. He doesn't take advantage of the matchup situation.

In my opinion, I would side with those who say trading Outlaw would be a good option. Don't you all think a package of Raef, Outlaw, Jack, 2nd round pick might be (more than) enough to get Devin Harris and change? NJ would love Raef's cap space so Jay-Z can pursue LeBron for the soon-to-be Brooklyn Nets. Outlaw's trade value won't likely get higher then it will be this off season.

Then we're seeing Harris, Roy, Webster, Aldridge, Oden and second unit Blake, Rudy, Jones, Frye, Pryzbilla (with maybe a little Sergio mixed in). And don't forget about the 1st rounder we might get (Hansbrough). That's two pretty darn good units.

by DrivetheLane on Mar 25, 2008 1:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

It's kind of ironic

since the player that fit that description was Ime Udoka.

I'm thinking that if there is one thing I could change - that would have no possibility of creating a butterfly effect - it would have been to have insisted on signing Miles to a shorter contract. Ideally he would have come off last year and Portland would have had a spot to sign Ime. I really think Udoka would have provided improved defense for us this season.

by timg56 on Mar 25, 2008 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gasp!

You ARE smart enough to be a GM!

I wonder if KP has figured out yet that a shorter contract for Darius would have been better. ;)

I'm frequently right, but always certain

by jscot on Mar 26, 2008 12:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tell you what.

I'll apply for an assistant GM position with Pritchard if you agree to do the same. I'll work with Tom Penn on contracts and you can handle media affairs and assist with agent dealings.

by timg56 on Mar 27, 2008 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

A devious plot

to get me to give up my other plans.

I'm frequently right, but always certain

by jscot on Mar 27, 2008 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Damn.

Gonna have to put effort into this.

by timg56 on Mar 27, 2008 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have always thought

that outlaw was good, but he is not good enough for a championship caliber defence and shoots the ball too much, and doesnt contribute much else

by raging WebTed on Mar 25, 2008 1:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

He's definitely good enough

to be a key role player. Even if his defense never improves (and it should), he's good enough to be a very dangerous scorer off the bench, and that's a valuable asset on a championship team.

Guys like that come in, and if they are on, you feed them the ball and they score a bucketload. If they aren't, they don't get the ball as much, and play shorter minutes. That kind of player will virtually single-handedly win some games for you.

And they can be even more valuable in the playoffs, when defenses tighten down and it gets hard to score. Travis is virtually undefendable when he is on, which means he can score even against playoff defenses. That is very, very valuable.

He's not untouchable, but if we trade him, we had better get a very good player in return.

I'm frequently right, but always certain

by jscot on Mar 26, 2008 12:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

no

no, no, no.

ignacio

by ignacio on Mar 25, 2008 9:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Obviously someone who knows!

by lee3022 on Mar 26, 2008 3:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And who wrote his post in Spanish and in English

so I can understand more easily.

A gatherins of sheperds, and one dead sheep.

by amlmart1 on Mar 26, 2008 5:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There is no need to trade anyone yet

If the right deal comes in the draft to get the right player then KP will likely do it. If not I am happy to see us take these guys to Las Vegas and training camp and play for the spots. Not many think Wafer is going to stay but with an offseason program under his belt and some good play (especially if his defense is good) I could see him sticking.

Outlaw and Webster and Sergio are not options to dump this year. Jack may have played well enough against Washington to give some pause. It was his first start since the very beginning of the year I think. Channing is not producing yet but will be given every chance to do so this summer. Jones and Blake are more likely to stay than to go this year. That leaves McRob and Wafer and maybe Jack and Frye to either be moved or have to compete with Peterri and our 2nd round picks for the last spot of two.

I do not see us getting Harris. He is playing well for NJ and our need in Seattle was clearly SG and not PG. Rudy of course fills one part of that and Martell moving to SG fills the other. That leaves Travis and Jones at the 3 along with maybe a draft pick or a draft pick at the 4 competing with McBob for backup there. One thing we want to remember is that Coach Nate and KP have both said they highly value players who can play multiple positions. Nearly all the present roster fits that description with Joel not so much but needed where he is and Oden also not going to play other than Center.

by lee3022 on Mar 26, 2008 3:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

No chance...

The Baron isn't under contract for next year and the Blazers are currently slated to add 4 draft picks plus Rudy to their already full 15 man roster.

I'd say the chances of the Baron being back are about 0.00%.

"You don't live by the jumpshot, you die by the jumpshot." ---Charles Barkley, 2/7/08

by timbo on Mar 26, 2008 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Trade

I would trade Martell Webster before i would even consider trading Travis Outlaw. Travis is a lot more consistent then Martell Webster and can defend better and is not afraid to drive to the basket. This is all for now.

BILL MCGEE

by BILLMCGEE on Mar 26, 2008 11:16 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

We can argue and discuss...

................................... about which 3 we would or wouldn't trade, but that's ultimately going to be determined by the GM trading the PG to the Blazers.

I have a hunch that Travis has the most value and he'll be the guy to go.

Martell has had 3 strong outings in a row, by my count, and I would be very afraid of trading him. He could become exceptional.

I think we know the player Travis is going to be by now. He's a good one.

"You don't live by the jumpshot, you die by the jumpshot." ---Charles Barkley, 2/7/08

by timbo on Mar 26, 2008 2:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs