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Playing with Numbers: Can Roy and Aldridge be Friends?

I'll be honest, I got to thinking about this because of my Surge Mancrush--now brutally by the harsh realities of play (put me in the camp of "I'm not excited about either next year" with a little side dose of "Surge! DUDE! What happened to you this year?!"). We used to say that Surge and Roy couldn't play together because they both needed the ball.

So, here: we have a lot of statistical data about Roy and LMA. The question then: do they play better together or apart? I'm not sure what this all means but I'll lay it out and see what the BE Intelligentsia has to say about it.

In the 67 games the Blazers have played to date, NBA.COM shows Roy's average points as 19.6 and LMA's as 17.7. I ran through the game logs and did a quick tracking to see what happens to their averages:

  1. If Roy's is above average is LMA's down? This might indicate that LMA gets bored when Roy starts taking over a game and can't contribute. (We might wonder about LMA's rebound totals and so forth but I'm not quite that ambitious yet.)
  2. If LMA's is above average is Roy's down? The opposite condition of the above: it's the Zach Randolph "black hole" problem re-born.
  3. Do both rise above average together? This might indicate that they feed off of each other.
  4. Do both fall below average together? Now this is an interesting question because it casts doubt on the whole exercise. We might reasonably expect one player to pick up the slack when the other player is down and out and having a bad night. So we want a smattering of incongrouus averages from points 1 and 2 above, yes? Perhaps... but maybe not too many.
  5. What happens when they go solo? This hasn't happened much but it's reasonable to take a look.
So here we go.

In the 67 games played, 9 of them have been "solo" games with Roy playing alone in 5 and scoring above average in each game and LMA going solo in 4 games and scoring above average in 3 of them. It's safe to say then that point 5 and the latter half of point 4 oare true: when one player is out, the other tends to pick up the scoring load. That's good I think we can all agree.

Now, in the remaining 58 games, an interesting trend occurs. Roy and LMA are congruent in beither above or below scoring averages in 44.8% of those games.

Both players score below average: 19.0%
Both players score above average: 25.8%

Roy and LMA are in opposition with each other in 55.2% of the games.

LMA is up and Roy is down: 24.1%
Roy is up and LMA is down: 31.0% (a bit of rounding error here means it doesn't quite add up)

By the way, the trend towards opposition is accelerating in this latter part of the season. During the winning streaks, they tended to be in congruence and later on, when the team is not winning, they tend to be in opposition.

October: congruence=5, opposition=4
November: congruence=9, opposition=5
December: congruence=5, opposition=5 (solo=5, all Roy)
January: congruence=3, opposition=11
February: congruence=3, opposition=6 (solo=4, all LMA)
March: congruence=5, opposition=4

Note: I didn't look at wins and losses because I wanted to screen that out. Maybe that was a bad idea... you can let me know in comments. Also, I didn't look specifically at how much above or below average the players were... just that they were above or below. There were a handful of occasions where one could have declared a tie but I ignored that so I could get on with my pontificating below.

These data seem to suggest a couple of things:

  1. It's troubling that these two pillars of the team are in opposition so much more often than they're in congruence. To me, it suggests that they can't yet share the ball. They're both down or in opposition with each other almost 75% of the time. I think this is more often than "one picking up the slack for the other" than might be desirable for consistent play, consistent team roles, and consistent winning.
  2. Roy seems to be able to contribute more often when Aldridge is playing well than vice-versa. This helps defend Roy from the criticisms he sometimes takes for not getting involved early in the game. Roy getting other players involves is important for their performance, as suggested by these figures.
  3. LMA, in turn, needs to get better at garbage time. When Zach was first being born as a Blazer player, we loved him for his garbage play: dude would vaccuum up balls and put them back for 2nd chance points... he didn't need no stinkin' plays! When Roy is taking the load, it does not appear that LMA has learned to contribute in other ways.
  4. Both players pick up their scoring when their counterpart is out. Again, we should probably expect this--who else, after all, is going to score--but it's nice to see.
These sorts of player correlations are something it might be interesting to monitor as the team develops: who seems to contribute as part of the team and who needs to be a focus?

I welcome sharp criticism in flaws on this approach. I like to think about stats, what they reveal, and how to get better at them.

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I don't mean to pee in your cheerios, but...
If you flipped a coin before every game to determine if each of them would be up or down, you would end up with a split of 25% for all fours categories.  That's pretty close to what you have there, except it's shifted slightly because Roy is up a bit more that he's down.

It looks to me like it shows pretty conclusively that they are independent of each other.

by Gargen on Mar 20, 2008 9:45 PM PDT   0 recs

A little math to back up my claim
Roy is up 56.8% of the time and down 43.2%.

LMA is up 49.9% and down 50.1%.

If they are independent of each other, you would expect the following results:

Both up - .568*.499 - 28.3%
Both down - .501*.432 - 21.6%
Roy up, LMA down - .501*.568 - 28.4%
Roy down, LMA up - .499*.432 - 21.5%

Throw in some margin of error and a little bit of shift to account for one picking up slack for the other and the fact that they can't be the hottest hand on the floor the same night and it seems fine to me.

by Gargen on Mar 20, 2008 9:52 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Good point...
Perhaps averages was the wrong thing to use... because you're right. This is the problem with an English major using math as a metaphor for reality. I think JScot below might have a good idea using standard deviations.

by Fizbin on Mar 21, 2008 6:39 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I think you're on the right track there
with your probability/statistical analysis, but you need to do some confidence testing or just test against the null hypothesis.

With out getting too deep into multivariate analysis, I'm not sure you can do that, because their numbers aren't independent from each other.

One thing the OP didn't cover is what happens in games when LMA doesn't play, or BRoy doesn't play. I think those would offer some insight.

by Farty MacFartson on Mar 21, 2008 3:28 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yup
Your stats show something about our offense this year:  it's mostly an either-or proposition between these two.  Either Lamarcus has the ball in the post and/or on the wing scoring OR Roy has the ball up top shooting and/or driving.  

I'm not convinced it's a matter of their play being incompatible as much as other factors:

  1.  The defense tends to key on one or the other.  The guy that's left often gets the "hot hand" and simply takes over the scoring.  Usually that's Lamarcus early in the game and Brandon late.

  2.  When Brandon does want to pass it's usually off the dribble to a wing player shooting for three, not to Lamarcus cutting for a score (which he seldom does, as him cutting when Brandon cuts would gum up the lane and ruin the drive).

  3. Lamarcus could actually get more mileage out of the pick and roll if he could set a more intimidating pick and if the guards used them better.  This would be his best chance of scoring at the same time Brandon does.

  4. We don't run many set plays involving them as a tandem.  However the times we HAVE run those plays (notably Brandon to Lamarcus in the post on a give and go, almost always on the left side) we have been very successful.  I don't get why we aren't exploring that more.

I would also say that all judgments on our offensive dynamics have a huge asterisk beside them until Greg Oden gets established.  You will see Brandon and Lamarcus score at the same time if Lamarcus can run out on the break, for instance.  Brandon may also be able to flip some nifty alley-oop passes to Oden off of the drive when Oden's man is forced to come and help.

--Dave

by Dave on Mar 20, 2008 9:55 PM PDT   0 recs

There are a few questions
You cite above and below player average but those averages have changed over the year so are you using present average or average at the time of the game?

The dynamics of the game as Coach Nate (and most coaches as well) has developed it are to seek the higher percentage shot if available. This philosophy leads to reliance on LMA if single covered as the primary option. How does your data allow for this philosophy?

It seems also true that Roy would rather set up a teammate than score himself while LMA makes fewer passes unless double teamed. The absence of win/loss data makes this question more pertinent. Who cares which scores if we win the game?

Is there a fundamental premise in this diary that we want both players to be above average all the time (statistical improbable as the average would continue to climb)?

by lee3022 on Mar 20, 2008 10:11 PM PDT   0 recs

Start over
Under your current methodology, Roy is under if he scores 19 and over if he scores 20.  It is meaningless to draw conclusions based on 1 point.  Either one of those is basically an average game for Brandon.  So is 18 or 21.  But 14 is definitely below average, and 25 is above average.

What you need to do is look at the standard deviation.  Any game where they scored within one standard deviation of the average, you need to consider as an average game.  So you have three kinds of games, average, below average, and above average.

So instead of two kinds of games for each, you have three, so you have more permutations, but at least you are dealing with meaningful differences.

I'm frequently right, but always certain

by jscot on Mar 21, 2008 12:48 AM PDT   0 recs

Starting Over
I was a little worried about using averages for this and I think you've correctly identified why that can't work very well. I think this might be a good idea: trying to use a standard deviation.

I'm also thinking about looking at quarters of play... I want to claim that Nate comes out wanting to focus on one or the other.

Can you think of any better way to statistically tease out the relationship between the two players?

by Fizbin on Mar 21, 2008 6:41 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Well....
You could use quarters, if you want to do a lot of work.

You could even do a breakdown of minutes on the court together and separate, and look at points per minute.

I'm not really sure there's enough here to make it worth the effort, though.  We've all seen them play together enough to know it can work well with the right offensive scheme.  I think we'll see it work even better with Greg in the picture next year.

In this case, I'd rather trust my eyes than go to a ton of work putting together stats.  

The fact is, when a team concentrates on shutting down Brandon (like Phoenix did), it will open opportunities for LMA, and vice versa.  The kind of stats you are talking about may prove nothing more than that defensive schemes will vary.

But using a standard deviation will at least give you a reasonable measure.

I'm frequently right, but always certain

by jscot on Mar 21, 2008 8:32 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Alas!
I worry about my eyes and emotions... that's why I like to try and look at numbers. My eyes are often deceived.

For example: they always seem so pretty and intelligent at the bar...

by Fizbin on Mar 21, 2008 9:09 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

This why they need to finish the season strong
Previous blogs talked about how we should rest them to play other players now the the playoffs are looking like a long shot.  It is more critical to get them experience playing each other and for Nate to continue to evaluate how they best play together.

I would also like to see them get more time with Travis at the SF to see how the 3 of them can work together.  This is more important than seeing what Sergio or Josh can do.

by lonevoiceofreason on Mar 21, 2008 6:17 AM PDT   0 recs

Interesting statistical breakdown, but...
I'm not sure the numbers there are strong enough to draw any meaningful conclusions.
lickety-brindle

by Billy Ray Bates on Mar 21, 2008 7:45 AM PDT   0 recs

Yup
Perhaps look at other pairs of players (if you have access to some databases, look at ALL pairs of players). One thing about basketball, where each player has nearly unlimited opportunity, is that there are only so many shots. If Roy goes 20/20 but Aldridge goes 5/5, does that mean they are in "opposition", or simply the Brandon got all the shots? Didn't we nearly have both Roy and Aldridge nearly go for 30 the other day?

by manzell on Mar 21, 2008 8:54 AM PDT   0 recs

Good Comment
What you're saying really gets at the heart of what we try and do with statistics: use them to confirm or refute our visual observations and emotional judgments.

Everyone likes to talk about players "who need the ball" or who "get others involved." I think this is particularly important with Roy and LMA. How do we get at assessing this concept statistically. Well, we start with averages but I think comments above have successfully cast shadows of doubt on that. Is there a better method to try?

Defensive schemes would be hard to measure... but we do have data on shots and FG% as you suggest above. A good example of what you're coming up with is JJ: he gets few shots but punishes people with awesome FG% (when he's on and his knee is healthy)... that would certainly suggest that he's "playing well with others."

I might give FG% and overall number of shots a try...

by Fizbin on Mar 21, 2008 9:08 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

That's your problem
Why can't there be emotional stats?  Like a "didn't get back on defense because they missed a shot" or "pouted?"  I think counting Pouts would be easy.  
"You see, marriage is like a coffin, and each kid is another nail." - Homer Simpson

by tominhawaii on Mar 21, 2008 2:32 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm just glad we're going through this...
getting-used-to-each-other phase in the early stages of their careers.

I don't think we need to worry about any long term side effects, but I'm inclined to agree with your thoughts and several responses. They'll figure it out.

Can't we all just get along?

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Mar 21, 2008 9:53 AM PDT   0 recs

Using jscot's suggestion of standard deviation,
the categories for scoring when both players played in a game is as follows:

Brandon average (1 stdev) = 13-26
LaMarcus average (1 stdev) = 11-24

% of games both below average = 1.7% (1/59)
% of games both above average = 0% (0/59)

LMA is above average, Roy below = 1.7% (1/59)
LMA is below average, Roy up = 0% (0/59)

Fizbin, does that help?

by Blazerholic on Mar 21, 2008 10:06 AM PDT   0 recs

Yeah... thanks
I think it supports Jscott's point that there really isn't much there.

But in this case, I think the absence of relevant data is as important as the presence. If you accept that the one standard of deviation is worthwhile to look at, it suggests that they don't tend to detract from each other but nor do they tend to help each other either (they're never statistically above average).

I think it's important that they play well together and I'd like to try and identify some statistics that help us understand if that's happening or not.

by Fizbin on Mar 21, 2008 2:18 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Or else
It blows my suggestion out of the water, because there is so much variance in their scoring that standard deviation isn't a good measure.

I don't think we would think that a 13 point game from Roy is average, we would view it as below average.  Similarly with a 26 point game -- that's above average.  So standard deviation isn't a good measure.

How about something totally arbitrary, and say that an average game for Brandon means within 4 pts of his average?  So you would be looking at a range of 16-23.  That would probably be a little more meaningful.

I'm frequently right, but always certain

by jscot on Mar 22, 2008 1:13 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

HMMMMMM ?
     Math diaries ? Uhhhhggg !
It's GO time !

by walkoff41 on Mar 21, 2008 11:39 AM PDT   0 recs

I hate using it...
...but it's the quick and easy way of getting somewhere around the ballpark.

http://82games.com/0708/0708PORP.HTM

That's the "player pairs" page for the Blazers on 82games.com.  It's only through March 11th though.  For + -, Roy does very marginally worse with Aldridge while Aldridge does very marginally better with Roy.  Basically, there's not a mind-blowing difference.

It's not the best way of proving this, but at least it is a reasonable conclusion.

by poster on Mar 21, 2008 11:49 AM PDT   0 recs

Development EQUALS consistency...
I think that as Second Year NBA "veterans" their statistical patterns are going to WAY WAY WAY different that what these two players put out on a nightly basis than when they are in their Fifth, Sixth, Seventh seasons and so-on.

What I am saying is that, you may have some statistical data to discuss THIS season with.  But it has absolutely NO RELEVANCE to the future, which is what I am concerned with.  There is no data to back up that player pair statistics continue on the same path with experience or development.  Therefore, I conclude.. NO, don't buy it.

With further development of both players individual skills, attributes, and mind; as well as further improvement and definition of the overall TEAM (supporting cast), we will see a lot more positive consistency night in and night out.

Unless we decide to turn into the Clippers:  start shuffling through young talent, never getting it developed, trade away chemistry, do horrible in the draft, piss off our stars, trade them for draft picks that we will waste and stay the youngest team in the NBA for two decades... OR...

Believe that B.Roy, LMA, Oden and company will find a nice playing groove together and turn into the dominant team we are all hoping for.  I Believe.

by Scotty the Mastermind on Mar 21, 2008 12:26 PM PDT   0 recs

True, but...
You're certainly right. We should be interested in what happens in future seasons. But I'm going to disagree with you when you say that what happens now has "absolutely no relevance to the future."

If we want this team to improve--and I think we can agree on that--we want to understand how much they're improving or where they're improving or how much left they have to go or why isn't this bit her improving?

Talking about this kind of data now helps us to establish a baseline for later.

I want to believe too... but I want to have some numbers to show when it doesn't make sense to believe any more. That might happen you know.

by Fizbin on Mar 21, 2008 2:21 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Two different things...
WANTING to understand and ACTUALLY using data to understand are two totally different things.

Yes, we want this team to improve.  Yes, we want to understand how much they are improving and in what aspects are they improving and .... this type of thinking could go on and on...

BUT, as they say in broadcast sports "that is why they play the game."  Two players have completely different growth curves. Two players now vs. two players in 3 seasons is literally impossible to predict based off of current statistics.  They have to play, they have prove it.  There are no guarantees in life or this game of basketball.  

There is absolutely NO Correlation between these LMA+Roy statistics to possibly foresee how they are going to play together in a few years.  NONE.  Do you have a crystal ball?  

This is a 5-man game.  This is a 15-man team.  There are so many factors that can not be controlled.  The only controls in place for BRoy to be successful are the only controls that LMA has to be successful.  That is to continue to measure their own performances in practices and games against their best possible performance and ability at that given point in time.  Roy should play his game, never try to be something he is not, and focus on giving his best effort and competing against the best possible Brandon Roy.  The team around him, the other stars, the coach, the fans, the competition, etc. are all out of his control.  Roy just needs to focus on what he can control... himself.

Same with LMA, and all the other Blazers. This is why character and attitude are so huge in pro sports and winning championships.  If players can stay focused on maximizing every opportunity they have by consistently giving their best effort.

by Scotty the Mastermind on Mar 21, 2008 3:15 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Whoa Boy! Talkin' about the numbers!
Everyone knows math is the Devil's work, so I won't get into your precious beautiful numbers that you deify so quickly.

All I'll point out is even if Roy and LMA don't have the amazing chemistry we all envision yet, both players are very unselfish, supportive of team work, and out to win.  Those characteristics will really help develop a nice chemistry between the two over time.  I don't imagine it will take long at all, really.

I love when they play a neato two man game.  I think Dave was the one who mentioned it as well, and I don't see why we don't do it more often also.  It's beautiful when it happens.

So your numbers might say that Roy and LMA are busts and we need to trade for Adam Morrison (I didn't read your numbers, so I'm only guessing based upon my factual belief that numbers only reveal evil and bad ideas), but my HEART says they'll get it going at the same time soon enough.  

I mean, they got games that benefit each other so they should be very good together eventually.  It isn't Curry and Z-Bo over here (which is something else I bet your numbers suggest).

I like the research though, and many of you are too smart for my tender brain.

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Mar 21, 2008 2:19 PM PDT   0 recs

Don't Burn me at the Stake Yet!!
I'm not at all suggesting we trade either of them!! I only want to better understand how they're playing together.

The Surge crowd has rightly said that Surge is probably not a fit for Nate or for Roy. That begs the question: how do we know? How do we know when a player can develop a better fit or not?

I believe that some players aren't a fit anywhere. Can we show that in the stats? I suppose, for example, that Zach tends to drag down the stats of anybody he's with.

That's all. Not the devil's work.

Dave: please don't excommunicate me from the site!

by Fizbin on Mar 21, 2008 2:24 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

About Zach...
sorry for the threadjack, but is it possible that Zbo is the anti-Bird? If only he had a goatee, then we could be sure.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mirror,_Mirror_(Star_Trek)

by Farty MacFartson on Mar 21, 2008 3:38 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Hops & quicks
Seems to me he's very similar to Bird in the athleticism and rebounding departments. He's a decent shot, of course not quite as good as LB was.

by royroty on Mar 21, 2008 8:30 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Fizbin, I think what the numbers show
is that there is no EASY way to measure progression using stats.

For instance, let's say you have this year's numbers and you want to compare them to next year. But here comes Oden to relieve double-teams against LMA in the post. But wait! Oden might be scoring some, reducing LMA's touches.

At the same time, if Rudy comes over and makes an immediate impact, maybe Brandon plays fewer minutes, impacting his stats.

It just can't be measured that way.

poster kind of has the right idea using +/-, because what should be measured is efficiency. For instance, what is the team's scoring efficiency when both are on the floor as opposed to when only one is on the floor? How many of Roy's assists are to LMA? If the two give and go what are the results? How many of Brandon's points came off of a pick set by LMA?

Those are the kinds of things you need to measure but that is tedious work, my friend. You have to watch every game and break it down play-by-play.

by Blazerholic on Mar 21, 2008 10:34 PM PDT   0 recs

How can we measure these things?
Maybe wins and losses is the best measurement for how these guys play together.  They are improving on win totals this year and both are contributing more than they were last year.  I say that is good enough.

Don't fall into the John Hollinger trap of reducing a beautiful game into a grid of numbers.  Don't get me wrong, I think some of the analysis can be helpful in a limited way.  But if there was a formula for determining how player chemistry would develop, wouldn't every GM in the NBA be using it?

by tssbro on Mar 22, 2008 11:24 AM PDT   0 recs

This is a question that one can overthink...
.................................................... just on anecdotal evidence, watching the games and forming a subjective opinion, I think the NEW, IMPROVED LATE-SEASON LOW-POST LMA is MUCH BETTER with Roy.

Roy is consistent no matter who he plays with, much like Z-bo put up consistent numbers no matter who were his cast of characters.

Throughout the first 3/4 of the year, LMA was up and down, but I attribute this less to the fact that he was playing with or without Roy, and more to the fact that he was trying to be Mr. 18-Foot-Shot Man instead of Mr. 8-Foot-Shot Man.

Now he plays in closer, where he can be fed or kick out... Roy is the best compliment for this situation, because Roy is the best guard on the team. Their performance appears to be positively correlated, not negatively correlated.

Now somebody spend a week to quantify performance and generate an r-number.

t

"You don't live by the jumpshot, you die by the jumpshot." ---Charles Barkley, 2/7/08

by timbo on Mar 23, 2008 10:45 AM PDT   0 recs

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