For Stat Geeks Only
As opposed to evaluating a particular player based on statistics, I thought it would be interesting to place a value on the statistic itself. For example an ASSIST, by its very nature, would have a high value because it always results in points scored. Whereas an OFFENSIVE REBOUND simply represents a retained possession with no guarantee of points scored. Other than satisfying one's curiosity, quantifying certain stats could help in designing game strategies, coaching emphasis and even player evaluation.
I've listed several common statistical categories. Rate them in order, in terms of value to YOUR team. Comments welcome, too.
ASSIST
BLOCKED SHOT
FOUL (before penalty)
FOUL (after penalty)
FLAGRANT FOUL COMMITTED
JUMPBALL POSSESSION
LANE VIOLATION (offense)
LANE VIOLATION (defense)
REBOUND (offensive)
REBOUND (defensive)
STEAL
TECH.FOUL COMMITTED
TECH.FOUL COMMITTED/ejection
THREE SECONDS (offense)
THREE SECONDS (defense)
TURNOVER (forced)
TURNOVER (unforced)
BONUS QUESTION: where would you place the "zero line", separating positive value from negative value?
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14 comments
Comments
i
REBOUND (offensive) "Denies opponent possession, creates opportunity to score."
STEAL "Same as above"
BLOCKED SHOT "Denies potential opponents points, may result in possession."
REBOUND (defensive) "Prevents second possession."
JUMPBALL POSSESSION "Zero line"
TURNOVER (forced)"Sucks"
TURNOVER (unforced) "See above"
LANE VIOLATION (defense) "They get free shot"
LANE VIOLATION (offense)"Un forced turnover"
THREE SECONDS (defense) "Same as lane vio"
THREE SECONDS (offense) ""
FOUL (before penalty) "Inhibits aggression"
FOUL (after penalty) "Free points"
FLAGRANT FOUL COMMITTED "Rarely good"
TECH.FOUL COMMITTED "Points + possession"
TECH.FOUL COMMITTED/ejection "Points + possession+loss of player"
by HurraKane212 on Mar 2, 2008 12:19 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I love stats
BLOCKED SHOT: +.2pts. Block w/ensuing possession +.4pts. Stopping a shot is good, getting the ball too is better.
FOUL (before penalty): -.2pts. Non-shooting can be used tactically to your advantage with high IQ players, but is still used to cover a misque.
FOUL (after penalty): -.6pts. Opponents get to shoot. Bad.
FLAGRANT FOUL COMMITTED: -2pts. Usually means you're out matched.
JUMPBALL POSSESSION: +.3pts. Got the ball, good.
LANE VIOLATION (offense):-.8pts. Stops your teamfrom getting free points at high rate.
LANE VIOLATION (defense):-.8pts. Allows opponent another chance to make free points At high rate.
REBOUND (offensive):+.6pts. You get another chance to score, and they don't.
REBOUND (defensive):+.3pts. You get the ball, good.
STEAL:+.6pts. You get the ball and the opposition is out of place to defend.
TECH.FOUL COMMITTED:-.8pts. Allows opponent free throw and ball.
TECH.FOUL COMMITTED/ejection:-3pts. Signifies too much emotion and not enough execution.
THREE SECONDS (offense):-.5pts. Turnover, but with a chance to set the defense.
THREE SECONDS (defense):-.8pts. Technical is shot.
TURNOVER (forced):-.6pts. Like getting a steal, it's an unexpected change of posession and players are out of position to defend against the fast break.
TURNOVER (unforced):-.5pts. Shows inattention, but usually requires an inbounds play.
by Steve The Hedge on Mar 2, 2008 2:08 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I like the way...
by Dr Dave on Mar 2, 2008 4:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Equation building
For example, a STEAL could be seen as the combined effort of an aggressive defender, sloppy opponent, court-aware player (BBall IQ), physical ability, play calling, and many other factors. The steal's relative value to the overall point total could be related to the element of surprise, fast-break ability, opponent strategy (intentional foul), aggressiveness of the break, etc. Some players will drive to the rim in an effort to draw a foul, while others will attempt a 3pt shot. It's an interesting choice. Is a contested 2pt shot with the chance at drawing a foul better than a wide open 3pt shot?
In a nutshell, the points I've assigned to each stat is their relative point impact on the final outcome. For example, the assist is better than a regular one-on-one basket because it means that the players were playing as a team, and the open man got the ball and executed. Playing as team gives a better chance at victory than having five individuals on the floor together. I could probably write a paper on how I came up with the value for each stat, but that would be a bit much. Only a handful of people get excited about numbers and basketball like I do.
by Steve The Hedge on Mar 3, 2008 8:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
My take:
STEAL +2
REBOUND (offensive) +1
BLOCKED SHOT +.75
REBOUND (defensive) +.5
JUMPBALL POSSESSION +.5 (Assuming this is from a defensive standpoint, the person who tied it up to force the jump)
------------Zero Line------------
LANE VIOLATION (defense) -.5
LANE VIOLATION (offense) -.75
FOUL (before penalty) -.75
TURNOVER (forced) -.75
THREE SECONDS (offense) -1
FOUL (after penalty) -1
TECH.FOUL COMMITTED -1
TURNOVER (unforced) -1.5
THREE SECONDS (defense) -1.5
FLAGRANT FOUL COMMITTED -2.5
TECH.FOUL COMMITTED/ejection -3
I assigned point values based on how many points they gain/lose for your team. Some things like an ejection are less quantifiable but some estimates had to be made. Preventing the opposition from scoring is counted as a point "gain" while taking points away from your own team is a point "loss." Furthermore, the "mistake" factor is taken into account, how bad of a decision it was, how easily it could have been avoided, etc.
by sixth on Mar 2, 2008 6:25 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Since...
by Dr Dave on Mar 3, 2008 8:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You really have to factor in
If you get a defensive rebound, I would not call that earning a possession. If the ball goes in, or the opponent gets it and scores, you are going to get possession anyway. What you really have done is denied the opponent an extra possession, so the value is determined by opponent points per possession.
On the other hand, an offensive rebound is gaining an extra possession, so it's value is determined by your points per possession.
Similarly, a turnover is wasting your possession, forcing a turnover is taking away one of the opponent's.
Of course, then you have to factor in that not all possessions are equal. Many offensive rebounds result in immediate easy baskets (ask the L*kers about LMA's rebound dunk). So there is probably a bonus that should be applied to rebounds. Your defensive rebound usually denies an opponent a very productive possession, your offensive rebound gives you a possession that, on average, is of higher value than your average.
Likewise, a decent percentage of steals lead to fastbreak baskets, so those are more valuable than an average possession.
by jscot on Mar 3, 2008 10:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Good point(s)...
Far from scientific is this endeavor. Much of the valuation comes from the evaluator's arbitrary sense of worth. For example, in my thinking, an ASSIST would be worth 2 points plus the occasional three point result from an "and one" or 'beyond the arc' three. Also add a little more for the ball movement and teamwork an assist implies. Say....2.6?
by Dr Dave on Mar 3, 2008 7:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ha
I think you are overvaluing an assist. If an average possession results in 1.06 points, and an assist results in perhaps 2.2 points on average, then you have an assist value of 1.14.
Factor in the fact that the non-assist average possession is much lower, subtract out the fact that some assists really only result from the skill of the recipient of the pass, subtract out the fact that sometimes an earlier pass (for instance, an outlet pass on a fastbreak) is really what created the basket, then add in the intangibles of ball movement and teamwork, I end up valuing an assist at about 1.5.
by jscot on Mar 4, 2008 2:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I may consider an assist
by amlmart1 on Mar 4, 2008 3:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, that's a factor
by jscot on Mar 4, 2008 4:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Call me Dr. Ding-a-ling...
Say your team had 25 assists. Five of those resulted in 3-pointers. That's (20x2) + (5x3)= 55 points on 25 assists for 2.2 points per assist.
You're comments ARE thought provoking. I'd be much obliged to see your reasoning on the other categories...
by Dr Dave on Mar 4, 2008 8:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
OK, Dr, I'll ring in
So specifically on assists, I think the benchmark is points per unassisted possession. If points per possession are 1.06, then let's say, for purposes of discussion, that points per unassisted possession are 0.7. Without any assist, we can let some guy go one on one and we'll get some points anyway, so the value of the assist is the difference between assisted and unassisted points per possession.
An assist means we get 2.2 points on the possession, so the baseline value of an assist is 2.2 - 0.7, or 1.5.
But passing to James Jones for an open 3 pointer, or to Roy for a contested driving layup, doesn't really mean I earned my team all of those extra points. I'm depending on the exceptional skill of those players to convert -- it isn't my skill that generated all of those points. If I pass to an open Aldridge off the pick and roll for a slam, it really is my skill that did it. So on average, we recognize that some assists are helped assists (helped by the skill of the convertor), and therefore on average the value of assists is not as high as pure point differential would reflect.
No one thinks every blocked shot is worth two points. It is only worth the points that the opponent would have had on the shot, and not all blocked shots would have gone in -- and since sometimes the opponents retain possession and score, that has to be factored in as well. But a retained possession has less time on the shot clock, which makes that possession less likely to result in a score, so we don't want to overvalue retained possessions, either. And with multiple blocked shots, there is the continuing intimidation impact. A player's first blocked shot in a game is of less value than his third, because by the third, people start to think about him on shots he doesn't block.
I'll try to write more later, but work may overtake me today. If I forget, and you want to discuss it more, perhaps another diary, since this one is receding so rapidly.
by jscot on Mar 4, 2008 11:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Alrighty then...
by Dr Dave on Mar 5, 2008 4:17 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

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