I wanted to take an in depth look at how the blazers have been progressing so far this season, month-by-month, as well as looking at what we do well when we win games (statistically speaking).  Based on these trends I'd like to think about what changes need to be made this coming off-season.  

Not counting October (we played one game and lost to San Antonio), we have played 65 games so far this season.  So what exactly do the numbers tell us?  To get an idea of what the blazers do well when they win, let's look at the differences per game totals of each major stat.

PPG +12.2
APG +4.2
RPG +0.2
Off RPG -0.2
FG% +4.9%
3P% +7.3%
BPG +0.3
SPG -0.3

Based on this you can tell that our defense tends to be pretty similar on average in our wins and our losses based on our BPG and SPG totals.  However we score considerably more, have more assists and shoot the ball better when we win.  Logically that makes perfect sense.  Rebounding seems to be roughly equal in our wins and losses too.  Based on the assist numbers, the more that we move the ball the better our chances are to win.  When we play one-on-one ball primarily we lose more often than not.  BRoy and his unselfish play would seem to be a major catalyst for this trend, especially since we win more often than not when Roy plays well and gets others involved.

I wanted to take an in depth look at how the blazers have been progressing so far this season, month-by-month, as well as looking at what we do well when we win games (statistically speaking).  Based on these trends I'd like to think about what changes need to be made this coming off-season.  

Not counting October (we played one game and lost to San Antonio), we have played 65 games so far this season.  So what exactly do the numbers tell us?  To get an idea of what the blazers do well when they win, let's look at the differences per game totals of each major stat.

PPG +12.2
APG +4.2
RPG +0.2
Off RPG -0.2
FG% +4.9%
3P% +7.3%
BPG +0.3
SPG -0.3

Based on this you can tell that our defense tends to be pretty similar on average in our wins and our losses based on our BPG and SPG totals.  However we score considerably more, have more assists and shoot the ball better when we win.  Logically that makes perfect sense.  Rebounding seems to be roughly equal in our wins and losses too.  Based on the assist numbers, the more that we move the ball the better our chances are to win.  When we play one-on-one ball primarily we lose more often than not.  BRoy and his unselfish play would seem to be a major catalyst for this trend, especially since we win more often than not when Roy plays well and gets others involved.

Since this season is al about the growth and maturation of the team, have they accomplished this goal so far?  Lets look at the numbers month-by-month, excluding the lone loss in October.

November
Record 5-10
PPG 90.9
APG 20.6
RPG 39.0
Off RPG 9.5
FG% .450
3P% .347
BPG 4.2
SPG 6.4

December
Record 13-2
PPG 101.0
APG 23.4
RPG 39.9
Off RPG 10.7
FG% .475
3P% .406
BPG 4.9
SPG 5.1

January
Record 8-6
PPG 96.8
APG 20.7
RPG 41.8
Off RPG 11.1
FG% .436
3P% .413
BPG 4.2
SPG 5.6

February
Record 5-9
PPG 92.1
APG 20.2
RPG 40.1
Off RPG 10.3
FG% .435
3P% .321
BPG 4.6
SPG 5.8

March to date
Record 3-4
PPG 98.1
APG 18.6
RPG 43.4
Off RPG 12.4
FG% .448
3P% .339
BPG 4.9
SPG 5.4

Overall there has been a trend of an increase in overall offensive output as measured by out PPG.  PPG is up from roughly 91 PPG to 98 PPG in March, with highs in December during our long win streak of 101 PPG.  Rebounding also seems to be improving slightly, which is a good trend for next year.  Overall RPG is up 4.4 RPG from November through March, and Offensive rebounding has also improved.  With GO joining the line-up next year, we can all hope that rebounding will improve even more.  The remaining stats see some fluctuations, but have not seen significant increases or decreases throughout the season.  The major exception is APG in relation to the overall record for that month.  APG were high (23.4 APG) during the hot month of December and dropped off as the team cooled down.  Shooting percentages were also high that month.  

Overall improvement grade: B+

I see the improvement of the overall record as a big deal, after all wins are the most important stat in any sport.  However, based on the major numbers individual team improvement has been stagnant in many areas.  Rebounding has improved, but overall team defense is roughly the same as it was to start the season.  Can you attribute the stagnant mid-season improvements to coaching or just to the personnel on the team?  Off season improvement was significant based on the W/L record, but I would have liked to see more improvement as a team, especially considering the 13 game win streak in December.

I, just like many Blazer fans, have the impression that we play a lot of close games.  I wanted to take a look at the validity to this statement.  First we have played in 11 games decided by 3 points or less with a record of 9-2.  This shows poise in close-game situations, which is a great indicator of the future of this young team.  Also, our OT record is 5-2, also a great record for a young team.  However we have played in 28 games decided by 10 points or more with a poor record of 11-17.   Of those 10 point wins, our last came on January 9th and 6 of those wins coming during our streak in December.  Compared to all of the elite teams in the western conference, we have far fewer wins by 10+ points.  The closest playoff team to our win total in "comfortable" wins is Golden State with a record of 18-10.  The next fewest 10+ point game win total is 23.  This tells me that having blowout wins really helps your team maintain its momentum throughout the season.  Your stars need games where they get some rest and play shorter minutes, which is something that the Blazers are not getting this year.  This needs to improve next season if we are going to be a playoff team like we all expect.  

Our record against good teams (over .500) is poor as well.  We are only 13-22 against those clubs.  With the competitive western conference, this needs to improve as well.  

If you look at where the Blazers rank in major statistical categories, we can get a better idea of what specifically needs to improve next season in relation to other teams.  

PPG 25th
Opp PPG 8th best
APG 20th
Opp APG 8th best
RPG 26th
Opp RPG 12th (or 18th best)
FG% 18th
Opp FG% 5th best
3P% 9th
Opp 3P% 5th best
BPG 21st
Opp BPG 1st (Blocked fewest by other teams)
SPG 30th
Opp SPG 5th best
FT% 12th @ 76.6%

So based on our NBA ranks our biggest problem areas are forcing turnovers (especially steals as we rank last in the NBA there) and rebounding.  Our PPG and APG could also see marked improvement, as we are a fairly low scoring team at the present moment.  Our major strengths are our overall defense (Opponent FG% and 3P% are low compared with other teams) and the fact that we don't turn the ball over very often (seen by low Opponent steal and block numbers).  You could attribute being blocked the fewest number of times to the fact that we are primarily a jump shooting team and would support the Blazer fan's complaint that we don't drive it to the basket nearly enough.  I would tend to agree.  An explanation of our god defense is the fact that we tend to play a lot of zone.  Playing lots of zone helps out defense, but hurts our rebounding.  I'm hoping Oden allows us to play more man-to-man next season and use the zone as a potent weapon to confuse opponents' defenses.

So how does this all affect what we do during the off-season and where the team needs to focus on improving and upgrading next year?  Its generally accepted that we need to upgrade the PG position, and I agree.  We really need someone to distribute the ball and who can rack up assists and help our perimeter defense.  Ball movement is critical for this team's success, especially if you look at how much better we play when we move and distribute the ball.  I also think that we really need a defensive-minded small forward that is lengthy and can guar multiple positions (ala a Ron Artest or Bruce Bowen).  Easier said that found.  Maybe with some work Martell can improve his defensive game and work on that outside shot during the off-season.  I really like James Jones there, but he is more of a limited role, bench guy that gives you solid minutes in my opinion.

Overall we need guys (at the PG and SF) that shoot a high percentage (particularly from 3) and play gritty perimeter defense.  Calderone is a great fit for us in my opinion, especially since he shoots well from outside and has a monster of a assist/TO ratio.  I think Blake has been playing great as of late (other than his outside shot) and distributing the ball well.  If Calderone isn't an option given our cap room, I think waiting to make major moves till CP3 is a free agent would be a great move.  A CP3-Roy backcourt would be killer, but there's my dream.  

The SF is a bit of a project, Martell or Outlaw could fit the role if they vastly improved their defense and outside shooting, but that is more of a pipe dream.  Oden should help with our blocking and rebounding.  LMA really needs to improve his rebounding during the off-season.  There is absolutely n reason he shouldn't average 10+ boards a game, especially if he bulks up a little during the off-season.  

As for the rest of the season I really would like to see the blazers focus on off-the-ball movement on offense.  The offense has been too stagnant as of late, and we need to get more plays at the rim.  I also would like to see all 5 guys get after the boards.  It's well known that the Blazers aren't a fast-break team, so there is no reason not to crash the boards every time at both ends.  

Any thoughts?  I'd love to hear anyone else's take on the matter.