FanPost

Blazer's draft odds

I thought this might be useful for anyone looking ahead and wondering what # pick we might get in the lottery.  

Barring an epic collapse or unbelievable run, we should have the 13th draft spot.  This assumes that we will end the season with a better record than any non-playoff team in the east (we're 8 games ahead of the 9th place east team right now).  That means there will be 7 east teams with a better draft position than us.

This also assumes we end up with a better record than SAC, LAC, MEM, MIN and SEA/OKC.  Sacramento is the best of that bunch, and is five games behind us right now.  We're four games behind Golden State for the 9th spot, and it doesn't look likely that we will catch them.  I would say there's a 90% chance we end the year in this same spot.

Given a 13th draft position, the following are the odds for different picks in the draft:

1st pick: .6%
2nd pick: .7%
3rd pick: .9%
13th pick: 96%
14th pick: 1.8%

So, there it is, we're 96% likely to get the 13th pick, assuming we keep our current standings, which I think is a near certainty.

Takeaways:
Keep the 13th pick in mind when you're watching college games or wondering who might be available.

Hope that GS or whoever has the 14th pick doesn't somehow get in the top three (this would drop us to the 14th spot).

Hope that lightning strikes twice, and we turn our 2.2% chance into a top three pick.

more info on the lottery:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery

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