Blazer's draft odds
I thought this might be useful for anyone looking ahead and wondering what # pick we might get in the lottery.
Barring an epic collapse or unbelievable run, we should have the 13th draft spot. This assumes that we will end the season with a better record than any non-playoff team in the east (we're 8 games ahead of the 9th place east team right now). That means there will be 7 east teams with a better draft position than us.
This also assumes we end up with a better record than SAC, LAC, MEM, MIN and SEA/OKC. Sacramento is the best of that bunch, and is five games behind us right now. We're four games behind Golden State for the 9th spot, and it doesn't look likely that we will catch them. I would say there's a 90% chance we end the year in this same spot.
Given a 13th draft position, the following are the odds for different picks in the draft:
1st pick: .6%
2nd pick: .7%
3rd pick: .9%
13th pick: 96%
14th pick: 1.8%
So, there it is, we're 96% likely to get the 13th pick, assuming we keep our current standings, which I think is a near certainty.
Takeaways:
Keep the 13th pick in mind when you're watching college games or wondering who might be available.
Hope that GS or whoever has the 14th pick doesn't somehow get in the top three (this would drop us to the 14th spot).
Hope that lightning strikes twice, and we turn our 2.2% chance into a top three pick.
more info on the lottery:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery
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With the 13th pick of the 2008 NBA Draft...
a.) PG Darren Collison, UCLA, Jr, 6'1". Collison is a very fast point guard with elite college experience running one of the best teams in the nation. Collison is currently shooting 47% from 3-ptrs this year, 14ppg, 4apg, and 2 turnovers.
b.) SF Donte Greene, Syracuse, Fr, 6'8". Greene is your prototype athletic SF in college. Greene is posting up 17ppg and 7rpg, but his 3-point percentage is 33%, shooting 40% for FGs.
c.) SF Nicolas Batum, France, age 20, 6'8". Batum has been a big prospect since last years 2007 Nike Summitt Hoops Camp, where he showed great scoring and defending. Batum is a rangy shooter, and considered an excellent defender. Was projected higher than 13, but with an up and down year, the Zers could get him on the cheap?
d.) CG Russell Westbrook, UCLA, So, 6'3". Has shown to be a lock-down defender in college and has risen above both Collison and Love on many draft boards. Can play both guard positions (like Jack), but doesn't get as much PG play due to collison. High upside, considered one of the hottest draft sleepers.
e.) SF Danilo Galinari, Italy, 20, 6'9". Allegedly this cat is like Toni Kukoc, point-forward gamer with great euro-fundamentals and high athleticism. Is slated to go in the top 10 now, but could slip to Portland. 17ppg and 5rpg, and showing to be top player in Italy.
f.) GF Chase Budinger, Arizona, So, 6'7". Chase is an athletic freak, mad hops, deep 3pt range, is shooting 37% for 3's and 43% for FG's to give him 17ppg, 5rpg, 3apg. Sounds like another offensive weapon, but questions are on his "D".
g.) FC Kevin Love, UCLA, Fr, 6'9. We all know about Love. Obviously if we drafted this cat, we would have to move Frye & McRoberts, and maybe a Sergio to trade for another pick or an established PG. But Love's strength and Hoops IQ would really add some interesting depth to our front court for years. Would be our bench bruiser?
h.) PG DJ Augustin, Texas, So, 6'0". Dj is speed player, much like Mike Conely Jr last year. He is slated now to go higher than 13 but could drop to us or we could trade a few spots up to get him. 19ppg, 6apg, and pretty darn good defender. He really is a high caliber PG prospect and that is one thing many Blazer fans are looking for.
i.) PG Ty Lawson, North Carolina, So, 6'0". This 14ppg and 5apg point man runs an elite program and many scouts thought he was the top freshman point in the country last year. He has had a decent season this year, but has slipped out of the projected top 10. Here is another potential answer to the PG need.
All in all, Portland should get a very quality player in this draft... and I have every confidence that KP and Crew will give the 2008 NBA Draft another "Pritch-Slap" for good measure. We will probably come out of this draft somehow with two first rounders (it is our trend), but in looking at our pick at "13", which one of these guys do you like or who do you like better (OJ Mayo if he slipped... scoring and defense machine!!).
All of my information is from wasting tons of time reading ESPN NBA Draft Insider bio's, www.draftexpress.com, RealGM.com draft mock, NBAdraft.net, www.nba.com, and watching college hoops. No expert here, just a dedicated Blazer fan looking into the future to see what we need and who we can fill that need with....
by Scotty the Mastermind on Mar 1, 2008 6:56 PM PST reply actions
Good list
I dont think we need an undersized PG like Augustin or Lawson, but more of a defensive PG/SG like the 2 Bruins you mentioned Collison and preferrably Westbrook.
Collison seems like more of a lower celing, higher floor player, but Westbrook seems the more higher celing lower floor player the high risk/reward player, but he did shut down Mayo. As for Mayo in previous posts I have advocated trading Jack to move up and grab him if we cannot get him at the 13 although nbadraft.net has him slipping to Sac @ 12 so we could move up easier than some other players, ala Bayless who will be a top 10 pick. Hopefully USC does not get into the NCAAs so that Mayo will not be showcased as much. The top pick from a team that was not in the NCAAs last year was Hawes @ #10 the rest of the top 10 picks came from teams in the NCAA. Although Mayo dropped 37 on 12-21 shooting 7-10 3pt, 3rebs, 4ast, 3stl, 1blk and only 2to tonight against ASU so his stock may be rising. Lets hope that his rep scares people off. I am really starting to lean towards Mayo.
The foreign SFs, if they fell to us would be a good deal as we may be able to keep then over in Europe, but Batum would be a better defender while Galinari would be more of an offensive threat. I wonder if they will both come here to Portland for the Nike Hoops summit so KP will be able to get to know them first hand. AS for the white boys, Budinger is too much of a project for me as I have seen him play and he is streaky and an OK defender. Love, well Love has been discussed here and I do not need to say much more about him. I have not seen much of Greene but I feel that Outlaw, Webster and Jones would suffice @ SF and that we should focus on the G positions more in this draft.
will DEFINITELY be watching UCLA come tourney time
by Scotty the Mastermind on Mar 1, 2008 11:26 PM PST up reply actions
I see now I spoke too soon about Mayo.
Once upon a time in a galaxy far far away, the Blazers had a roster full of uber-talented players, players like Rasheed, Bonzi, Steve Smith, Stoudamire, Pippen, Arvydas, Brian Grant, etc ... Where did a team with all those stars get us? In a gutter.
So, the reasons I see for Mayo to not be a good fit here are three: Roy, Aldridge, and Oden. Mayo is a guy used to taking a lot shots, and all of a sudden that will go away if he comes to portland. And for a guy averaging 4 turnovers a game for someone who is only supposed to score, that doesn't bode well if all of a sudden he's supposed to turn into a facilitator.
But most importantly, I seem to remember a little story about how he found his way to USC in the first place: He had one of his entourage (his high school entourage, mind you) call up the USC coach and tell him that Mayo had decided to come and play on his team--without any sort of recruitment whatsoever. So, apparently Mayo looked at a short list of the biggest schools in the biggest markets, but ones with more of a second-tier basketball program where he could stick out amongst the crown ... Sounds like we might have a bit of an ego here, and I have no interest in that.
I know a lot of people like the guy, but I'd bet that even if available when we drafted that KP wouldn't touch the guy with a 10-foot pole, and so once again I am happy that KP is making this decision and not us ...
You need to read this and then come back and tell
http://www.blazersedge.com/story/2008/2/23/203657/573
About the phone thing.
In fact I hope that his year this year will help him in the long run, he is so hyped and was so thought of and he was supposed to lift the USC program on his shoulders and set the NCAA alight and he has struggled, possibly for the first time in his life. I would imagine that this will humble him for future reference. Hopefully those misconceptions that you have about Mayo will let him slide to us @ 13 after reading those links, we can only HOPE that he will.
PS keep on badmouthing
Guess what ...
I don't know anything about the kid being a punk or thug, and it's pretty clear that ref took a dive. But there are several quotes from the YouTube clip you posted of Tim Floyd on PTI that are red flags for me. And I quote:
-He wants to "be in Los Angeles and put his name on a program."
-"He wanted the market that LA provided."
-"calls attention to himself ..."
-"Help me market myself"
-"I ... I ... I ..."
Do you recall any statements like that coming from the likes of Brandon Roy, Greg Oden, LaMarcus Aldridge, Travis Outlaw, etc.? No. The only thing I've ever heard from Brandon is "I want to make my teammates better" and "I want to win games." Nothing about "making names" coming from our locker room ... that left with Zach and hopefully it won't be back for a long, long time.
And what's more, tell me again why Tim Floyd isn't coaching in the NBA anymore? Oh right, it's because he's not a very good NBA coach. So, his opinion on OJ Mayo is the LAST opinion I'll be accepting, thank you very much.
And you've completely misunderstood my point about the former Blazers: That team was arguably the most talented team top to bottom in the league for several years running. But what did it get them? Or us? I would rather have a team that has a couple bonafide leaders who everyone knows run the show, and then roll players who come in and know their job and do it well. Does Mayo strike you as a roll player? From those quotes above do you think he'll be happy playing the roll of third or fourth banana? No, he wants to play in a big market and "put his name on a program." Well, that simply isn't what this team is currently looking for. I'd even be willing to stake a reasonable wager on the fact that, if available, KP wouldn't touch Mayo with a 10-foot pole.
In closing, I don't need to espouse my opinions on other sites when I can do it right here. I am happy to listen to reasonable arguments, but I've heard nothing yet to convince me that Mayo is a good fit for Portland, so I will continue along my line of thinking unless someone can convince me otherwise.
You didnt read any of the posts
IF you would of read my ENTIRE post links included you would of got these nuggets instead of all this "I,I,I" stuff and all this Floyd bashing.
"Now at USC, his expectations have not diminished.
'From start to finish, our goal is to make sure we improve and win a national championship,' he said."
or
"I don't think [winning] is really about my individual performance," he said. "It takes a team to win a national championship, not just one player. As long as we improve as a team as the season goes along, then we should be good."
How about
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/pac10/2007-11-07-usc-mayo-focus_N.htm
"I'm just a ballplayer. Am I a competitive ballplayer? Yeah. Do I want to win? Do I really want to work harder than anyone? Yeah. But as a person, I'm just like the next man. I'm no better than the next man. I'm no better than the next student or the next person. I just have a God-given ability to play basketball, and I want to use that to the utmost to support my family and support myself.
"I'm no better than you," Mayo says. "I'm no better than the man on the corner with a 'Hungry' sign. I just have a talent, and I want to use it."
Lastly the NCAA has but one goal, not to encourage students to become athletes, but to make money, period. With the new rules about coming out of HS these highly touted freshman look at it as a form of community service, all of them. So for Mayo to have the vision to put himself in a big market where he know a lot of eyes would be on him is a shrewd business move. He has not lived up to the hype as much as anticipated but the hype machine has been in overdrive on him since he was in 7th grade so how could he?
Do some more research before you go bashing on someone.
Just calling it how I see it.
All will be decided come draft day, I guess. If we move up to get him, then you were right. If he is available and we choose to go elsewhere, then you will have been wrong, which is what I'm betting.
And don't call me lazy--I didn't call you any names. I didn't read your links because you explained them all in your big long post, which I did read. I think I've done just about as much research on draft prospects as the next dude around here, and still don't think Mayo's a good fit for us. I'm not hatin' on him or you, it's just my opinion. If you don't like it, then tough tomatoes.
Best Available drafting...
by Scotty the Mastermind on Mar 2, 2008 2:14 PM PST up reply actions
Yes he probably would be the best player ...
He doesn't fit where this team is headed.
I'm not necessarily
We know KP is careful about quality individuals. If they meet with him, and make the assessment that he'll fit, I'll be content.
If he slips all the way to #13, after all the hype, that would be quite an antidote for a big head, and a motivation to go out there, work hard, and excel.
And I don't think any young kid coming to this team is going to be allowed to think he's the man. Nate will make him defend Roy in practice a few times, and he'll quickly learn how much he has to learn.
The kid could be trouble, but he could have just been immature, and could grow out of it real quick. There are signs he might be growing out of it.
Agreed, bfan.
by rockingharder on Mar 2, 2008 4:36 PM PST up reply actions
Ron Artest doesn't seem like a good
Have you seen Ron Artest? The guy is ridiculously strong, I think Gilbert Arenas (who is no pushover himself) got hurt FOULING Ron Artest. He hit him on the arm and Artest just brushed it aside as if it was nothing.
Oj isn't a Sergio or LMA at his position but 215 @ 6' 5" is not built for Ron Artest's style of play.
Also about the thing about 'being the man' most players were the 'man' on their teams throughout High school into college, they learn to fit their game to succeed in the NBA.
I wouldn't mind having Oj Mayo but only if he's going to be better than Jack right away (no way we're getting him at 13)

Excellent breakdown.
I'm intrigued with the prospect of Westbrook, but I'd put Collison at the top of the list of point guards right now. I love everything he does: He has good steals and assists numbers, 2 to 1 assists to turnovers, shoots a good percentage, shoots a good percentage on 3s, and has a great points per shot ration. He clearly knows when to distribute and when to take advantage. I would love to see him as our PG of the future.
That said, the presence of Roy is the monkey wrench here. I like Collison's skill set, but Westbrook might be the better compliment to Roy when all is said and done.
I like Lawson as a player, but I don't think he fits this team. For one, he's a fast breaking point guard, and on our team I don't know if that works. Secondly, I'm not impressed with his shooting from distance. I think anyone playing the point on our team needs to be a threat from outside with all the dribble penetration that Roy provides.
Ultimately I think I would be happiest drafting for the PF position--either Love or Hansbrough. I haven't been the biggest proponent of Hansbrough in the past, but lately I have been very impressed with his motor and his toughness. He clearly has passion for the game, and he's willing to mix it up down low. He could be the perfect compliment to players like Outlaw and Sergio coming of the bench. So could Love, though. I'm really glad KP is making this decisions and not us ...
Mayo not realistically attainable at pick 13...
Other than that, I really like Collison and Westbrook too. Batum and Ganilaro both chances at more top Intn'l talent and would help improve depth for Portland, so I like them a lot too.
by Scotty the Mastermind on Mar 1, 2008 11:32 PM PST up reply actions
I hope we can move up if
I would love this roster:
PG: Mayo, Blake, Sergio
SG: Roy, Fernandez
SF: Outlaw, Jones, Webster, Miles
PF: Aldrige, Frye, McRoberts
C: Oden, Pryzbilla, Lafrenz
Mayo would be a perfect compliment to Roy, a great 3pt shooter, an excellent on-ball perimeter defender, and able to bring the ball up and can average 5-6apg IMO to pair with Roy's 5-6apg. Without having to shoulder the scoring load as he does at USC, it would allow him to defend with more energy aginst the Parkers, Pauls and Williams of the league.
I am starting to be moved by his recent play.
I'd like to see portland move up too..
by mrwonderfull on Mar 2, 2008 3:16 AM PST up reply actions
Trading Jack would be better for us
The 5th pick makes $3.1mill, the 13th makes$1.8 mill so we would have to trade Jack($2mill) and the 13th($1.8mil) to get the 5th($3.1mil) and salary filler of $1.3mill.
If we trade Blake we would need to take back an extra $2mill as that is the difference in Blake/Jacks salary.
Know what I mean?
Here's one mock draft eval on Mayo
Really knows how to create shot for himself.
Excellent shooter with solid mid-range game.
Very good defender.
Negatives:
Lacks explosiveness to consistently get by his man and finish at the rim.
Poor shot selection.
Extremely turnover prone.
Not very efficient.
I don't see how Mayo is an improvement over what we currently have at PG, other than being a better defender. I'm betting whatever he brings at the defensive end is more than cancelled out by being a shoot first point or combo guard that can't drive very well and turns the ball over.
8th
by mrwonderfull on Mar 2, 2008 3:11 AM PST up reply actions
no freaking way we draft
fatty?
by mrwonderfull on Mar 2, 2008 3:07 AM PST up reply actions
if we can not trade up to mayo then lets trade for
Memphis feels they have more point guards then they need or want. That being the case they are not going to take any of our guards. But I think they would go for a Channing Frye. To make the numbers match we can do a sign and trade with Wafer adding him to the mix.
Then we can use the 13th pick to get Love.
Would you rather have Conley then the other guards mentioned in the list?
by mrwonderfull on Mar 2, 2008 3:22 AM PST reply actions
I have been thinking Conely too...
by Scotty the Mastermind on Mar 2, 2008 8:46 AM PST up reply actions
I'd be surprised
by OregonDuckworth on Mar 2, 2008 3:10 PM PST up reply actions
if they do fall apart
by soulja2boy on Mar 2, 2008 9:23 AM PST reply actions
Jack,
westbrook
I don't know about you guys
agreed
Drafts are all about hype. If they led their team to the finals or played for a prestigious school all helps them in the draft, but it has no bearing on NBA success. Take a look at any of the Lukes from Oregon or Adam Morrison.
If KP wants to do it...I'm down, but if not I'm not too excited for the draft. I'm happy with the team right now. We may not have all the holes plugged right now, but there's no reason to think our players can't grow considering how young they are.


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