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A Rudy Introspective

...or more accurately, some half-baked thoughts generalizing from one game.  Rudy's DKV Joventut squad just ran roughshod over Pamesa Valencia 85-59 (I believe was the final score).  I watched the game -- more accurately, watched our boy -- and jotted down some observations on each of his offensive possessions and plays in which he was involved defensively.  They are as follows.

OFFENSE

Rudy is an exceptionally tough cover for ACB defenders.  His shot chart says it all: 3/3 on two-pointers, 5/5 from the line, 3/6 from deep totaling a game-high 20.  He has a very quick release on his jumper making it difficult to block; this is a good thing, as he gets little elevation before shooting.  I would expect some initial struggles with his jump shot as he acclimates himself to the greater speed, length, and hops of NBA defenses.  That being said, Fernandez has no trouble knocking down jumpers with a hand on his face: all three of his threes were contested.  He has NBA range on his jump shot.  

Rudy demanded the ball three times in the first half with the shot clock winding down and delivered all three times, twice sinking contested threes and once setting up a teammate with a nice drive-and-dish, though he didn't convert.  He should be an excellent bail-out option on the second unit after plays break down.  

Fernandez shows very good ability to hit jumpers off the dribble: one three-pointer came after a right-to-left crossover, and another after two hard dribbles right to beat his defender.  He sank the one mid-range jumper he attempted off the dribble, but seemed more comfortable either slashing or shooting threes.  Fernandez slashes to the basket well, attacking his defender with either left or right-hand dribbles, although he appears more comfortable going and finishing right.  Despite lacking upper-body strength, he exhibits superior body control, allowing him to finish after contact: he converted one three-point play and made another layup after getting bumped (no whistle) on a fast break. Twice Rudy pulled down rebounds, went coast-to-coast, and drew shooting fouls in transition.  He attacks the basket better during transition than in the half-court, where he's more content to settle for threes.

Rudy is not blindingly fast in vertical speed, nor is he exceptionally quick laterally, but his herky-jerky dribbling style combined with a surprising initial burst allow him to beat defenders off the bounce.  A caveat: never once did I see Fernandez penetrate in the half-court without the aid of a screener, and just based on my observations of this game, I would have strong doubts about his ability to break his NBA man down one-on-one like we see Brandon do in late-game situations -- at least initially.

Rudy is a very good passer on the fast break.  He twice hit teammates streaking for layups with half-court passes, including one sidearm baseball pass that split three defenders and would have made any SportsCenter clip.  He is also a good passer in the halfcourt, tallying three consecutive assists -- two alley-oops -- in the fourth quarter to push the game out of reach.  That being said, he's a poor passer off the dribble-drive: once he's driving, it's a very safe bet that a shot's going up, and he twice missed teammates flashing to the basket for an easy dump-off layin while driving.  

Rudy's movement off the ball is poor.  He doesn't look to utilize screens for curl-and-pops like Hamilton or Martell, nor does he attempt to cut backdoor or V-cut to receive passes.  This may be a reflection of the team's offensive philosophy or his teammates' inability to effectively find him in these situations, but even when he shared the court with Ricky Rubio, he still loitered on the wing until the ball was swung to him.  With his quick release and good balance on his jumper, this ought to be an easy element for him to incorporate next year if he doesn't already possess it.

He occasionally gets trigger-happy: all three of his misses from deep were bad shots.  One came just seconds into the shot clock after one pass, one was from two feet outside of an NBA three, and one was off a fast break with an easy lane to penetrate to the basket available.  He only turned the ball over twice -- one of the knocks against him in the NBAdraft.net profile is that he needs to take care of the ball better, but I didn't see that.

DEFENSE

Rudy will not do wonders for our defense next year -- though he looked significantly more comfortable playing zone than man-to-man, which is a good fit with our current defensive scheme.  Three times he was isolated on the wing and attacked off the dribble, and three times he was blown by.  While his defensive anticipation was good, his lateral quickness is not.  Between his lack of upper-body strength and average lateral footspeed, I'd expect most NBA 2's to eat his lunch next year, and forget any lineups that have Rudy defending ones.  

Playing the wing in a 2-3 zone, he shows very good awareness and activity in the passing lanes.  He deflected numerous passes and has long arms and good instincts.  Several times he read the move of the opposing center (matched up against the center of the zone), slid down from the wing, and forced turnovers with a travel or ripping the ball away.  After gambling into the passing lanes, Rudy recovers quickly, though he gave up several baskets gambling in this fashion.  

His defensive rotations are average to subpar, though when he commits to defense -- as he did at the start of the third quarter, when the opposing team had cut the lead to four -- he is capable of playing excellent team defense.  His lapses appear to be a combination of occasional loss of focus and desire, which is understandable as he's the number one offensive threat.  

REBOUNDING

Rudy's rebounding needs to improve.  He relies too much on his above-average athletic ability and length to grab rebounds, seldom boxing out.  He'll fit right in here next year -- every time a shot goes up, he turns his head to watch the flight of the ball rather than putting a body on his man.  His side of the floor gave up a disproportionate number of offensive rebounds.  Two of the three fouls for which he was whistled came on loose-ball fouls where he gave up inside position.  Save for one excellent tip-in on a missed free throw, he doesn't crash the offensive glass.  Rudy does have a good nose for the ball -- he reads the flight of the ball well and tracked down two long rebounds coming from the other side of the floor.  But when Shammond Williams is beating you on the offensive boards, you know you've got a problem.  More than Rudy's defensive deficiencies, his rebounding concerned me.  He showed that when focused, he was very capable of playing sound team defense, if not the ability to shut someone down one-on-one; never once did he show the same tenacity to rebound, nor an understanding of rebounding fundamentals.  Nate and Mo will have to pound the importance of this into him next year, I think.

All right, I've got some thoughts about how we might end up using Rudy and how his transition to the NBA will be at first, but this is plenty long enough already.  Keep in mind that I'm far from an NBA scout and this is only just what I've gleaned from watching one game and comparing it against a few draft profiles I've read about him, so don't shred me too bad.

0 recs | Comment 19 comments

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Great job!
Thanks a lot for the input.

What you wrote kind of goes with my thoughts about him. He can be a very good player off the bench for us and play occasionely with Brandon, but most of the time he'll be Roy's backup.
 Having said that, I don't have any doubt that we got one of the biggest steals of the draft.

by Bruno on Feb 8, 2008 11:59 AM PST   0 recs

This is great!
Thanks for the analysis!

by Blazermaniac77 on Feb 8, 2008 12:00 PM PST   0 recs

Nice work.
Although you had me at ...or more accurately, some half-baked thoughts generalizing from one game

I also liked the one about fitting right in with this team when it comes to rebounding.

by timg56 on Feb 8, 2008 12:03 PM PST   0 recs

appreciate that
Rudy should make an impact as a Trail Blazer, and really add a multi-dimensional player to the already loaded depth-chart. Should be fun.

Did you see Larry Bird in the crowd? He's scouted Rudy for awhile. Whats that tell you?

by bow4meow on Feb 8, 2008 12:58 PM PST   0 recs

VERY NICE
A++++++++++
"Life is a meaningless sequence of events in between Blazer championships"

by broggerboy19 on Feb 8, 2008 2:00 PM PST   0 recs

RUDYYYYYYYY
Today game stats:
http://jornadavirtual.acb.com/htm/estadisticas/est003.htm

Joventut play tomorrow Sat. at 20:00h Spanish time, 11:00 AM Portland time. I´ll try to be here from 10:58 to 11:15 (Portland time) to help anyone who would want to see the game by rojadirecta.com.
BlazersOrBust, you can see the game in TVE1., and I hope you continue your nice work.

Joventut will play against Real Madrid. We will see R&R against one of the few best teams in Europe, a very experimented team with great players. Is gonna be tough for Juventut, Real Madrid is a real contender to test Rudy.

OT:

From Oxford: great work. Actually are you American?.

From Spain: You stole my place as Spanish scout in BE. Worst, you show me as a the ridiculous scout I am. But by God, that is an insult. You have made yourself an enemy who would harass you for the rest of your life. Now, when you would walk on the dark streets of Malaga and there´s not a soul to be seen, take care not to leave your  back unguarded and test your sword to be sure you can easily draw from the scabbard, because perhaps you should have to fight for your life in a corner lighted by the gleam of two blades or you die without time to ask for confession. This will be a merry chase. Maybe I´ll choose to attack you when you would be sleeping like a marmot and speed you to Hell, or wherever you accursed Oregonians go blaspheming in good American English. Maybe I´ll go to one of your old posts at the bottom of a dying thread and let some nice words for you, when you can even read it and defend. Bastard or coward seems to me too generous. So, we have to fight. Whenever Your Merci please.

I like Brandon Roy, whatever planet he comes from. (Bill Walton?)

by amlmart1 on Feb 8, 2008 3:29 PM PST   0 recs

I like you amlmart1
At the wall, after school it's a showdown between BlazersOrBust and amlmart1, be there or be confused about what all the kids are talking about tomorrow.

by drawingjeremy on Feb 8, 2008 4:14 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

You are an absolute card, amlmart
Me hiciste reirme a carcajadas and it's 2:35 here, I probably woke my family up.  You know, one of my hopes before coming to Spain was that a psychotic Spaniard from the north would accost me in a dark alley late one Malaguena night, forcing me to cross steel with him in a ferocious duel to the death.  Never did I dream that it could actually happen! I'll strap on my espada and cheerfully await your arrival.  They say Malaga is great during Semana Santa, maybe you could come then to duel me to the death.

by BlazersOrBust on Feb 8, 2008 5:41 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

I´ll be in Paris during Semana Santa
I have to kill someone there. You may wait patiently for your turn. Maybe by when the moment come I´ll forgive you and you save life, a jewel of commentator like you is not easy to find these days.
I like Brandon Roy, whatever planet he comes from. (Bill Walton?)

by amlmart1 on Feb 10, 2008 4:40 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

1.96 m = 6'5"
I like Brandon Roy, whatever planet he comes from. (Bill Walton?)

by amlmart1 on Feb 8, 2008 4:54 PM PST   0 recs

In summary...
................. Jumpshooter, doesn't penetrate, weakish defense, so-so at best rebounder...

Why isn't he on this year's squad? Sounds like a hand-in-glove fit...

t

"You don't live by the jumpshot, you die by the jumpshot." ---Charles Barkley, 2/7/08

by timbo on Feb 8, 2008 8:40 PM PST   0 recs

hey blazersorbust
I tried to watch the game through rojadirecta.com but I couldnt get in through any of the links.  Which link did you use to watch the game???
RUDY > MJ

by myemic23 on Feb 8, 2008 9:14 PM PST   0 recs

to expand
was it Real player? tvant? p2p?
RUDY > MJ

by myemic23 on Feb 8, 2008 9:17 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

I'm in Spain
so I watched the game on TV. Sorry I can't be of more help, I don't know anything about how to watch it via Internet.

by BlazersOrBust on Feb 9, 2008 3:30 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

oh i see...
thanks anyway and really nice work on this write up.  I have been drooling over Rudy since we drafted him, I cant wait to see him in a blazer uni...
RUDY > MJ

by myemic23 on Feb 9, 2008 10:09 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Where in Spain are ya?
I love Spain.  SO I MARRIED IT ha beat everyone to the joke.

by Mortimer on Feb 9, 2008 7:00 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Shoots
I was going to say that.  I like Spanish omelette's but I'm not so big on Spanish rice.
"I knew a guy who was dyslexic. He was also cross-eyed. So everything came out right." Tummler from Gummo (1997)

by tominhawaii on Feb 11, 2008 12:15 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

no
not nearly big enough to be an nba three on a consistent basis...
RUDY > MJ

by myemic23 on Feb 8, 2008 9:16 PM PST   0 recs

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