No Playoffs This Year
We had a good run, but though Hollinger's playoff odds has the Blazers at 35% to make the playoffs this year, that may be a bit optimistic.
No one can predict the future, of course, and past performance doesn't always predict future performance, but it does tend to give a sense of how things are likely to go.
Keep in mind, also, that the Blazers have been relatively healthy this year, with no major players going down with extended injuries. Hopefully that will continue, but obviously, significantly injuries have a major effect on team performance.
More detailed analysis below the break...
Of the Blazers remaining 34 games, 19 are on the road. Not that their recent home defense has been that stellar, but road games involve travel and hostile teams defending their home turf - they are always tougher. The Blazers have been a decent road team after their terrible start, going 8-5, but haven't beaten a team over .500 on the road since their streak in December.
Their remaining road opponents are: Detroit, Indiana, Houston, Dallas, Seattle (x2), Lakers (x2), Clippers (x2), Warriors (x2), Milwaukee, New York, Cleveland, Minnesota, Sacramento (x2), Phoenix
The Blazers will be favored against the Clippers, Seattle, Milwaukee, Minnesota, and maybe New York and Sacramento, though they traditionally have a hard time in Arco Arena.
Let's be optimistic and say they nearly split their remaining road games, going 9-10. That puts them at 37-30.
Their remaining home games are against Sacramento, Seattle, Phoenix (x2), Lakers (x2), Clippers, Minnesota, Washington, Charlotte, Houston, San Antonio, and Dallas.
I don't mean to overlook the sub-.500 clubs on that schedule, because any team can come out hot on a given night, but let's assume the Blazers win all those games. That's only 5 games! If they split the remaining 10 games, against teams also struggling for playoff position, they finish 47-35 on the season.
This might be good enough for the 8th spot in the playoffs this year, but I suspect it'll take 48-49 wins to make it with the Lakers, Spurs, Rockets, Warriors, Nuggets, and Blazers all fighting for those last four spots.
At 47 win season would be a great outcome for this season, though I expect 44 is more realistic, with the team struggling the way it has been lately.
So likely no playoffs this year. But next year, if Oden is healthy and plays, solving our rebounding and interior scoring issues - look out!
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All you bandwaggoners can get off now.
by theanomaly777 on Feb 7, 2008 11:25 AM PST reply actions
contrary
I've only been a fan since the Oden draft
That was funny
Even if I get just a little chilly, I cut open a living animal and crawl inside it. It's a lot cheaper than turning on the heat and it isn't itchy like a sweater.
Mortimer
Who is this Oden fellow...
t
What's it like
I suggest staying away from the goats though. Not nearly as tender. Plus I hear they'll make you the butt of their jokes.
If you told me
I think 45-48 wins this year is very achievable, next year we will add our #1 pick and Rudy to the team, again usually a team adding the #1 pick will win about 10 more games, so using your number of 47 wins this year, that would put us in the high 50's for wins next year!
I want the Blazers to make the playoffs for so many reasons, fan excitment and player experience are just two of them. This year and next year are learning years, after that we will enter a championship window for a very long time.
Playoffs put them
by timanator421 on Feb 7, 2008 11:56 AM PST up reply actions
Realism =/= bandwagon
But this year the playoffs are going to be a stretch. The issues that plagued the team before the streak have re-appeared and they aren't going to go away without a lot of off-season work. It's not necessairly the sloppy 3-3 homestand. It's not that the Blazers suddenly suck. It's a combo of issues that unsurprisingly are hindering this young team, and the fact that all the other teams in the West ahead of the Blazers are playing better.
If I learned anything from these blazers and
by theanomaly777 on Feb 7, 2008 11:32 AM PST reply actions
They're not out of it yet.
At the same time, I can't say this often enough:
It's not about this season. It never was. It never will be.
Whether or not we make the playoffs, this team has overachieved by about 1000% this year, and people will be paying attention to the Blazers from now on.
We aren't going to win the championship this season no matter how high a playoff seed we might get, so why worry about it? If the playoff ship sails, then maybe the ping-pong balls will favor us again. Wouldn't THAT be sweet?
"It's not about this season. It never was...
by BlazersOrBust on Feb 7, 2008 2:08 PM PST up reply actions
Had to work today, sorry!
I get that.
This is what they call the honeymoon period and I know better than to try to talk sense into girls in love.
t
wait
It's not that
Sometimes it turns out peachy...
t
You think I'm wrong?
Is Greg Oden another Sam Bowie?
I highly doubt it.
Is Greg Oden another Bill Russell.
I highly doubt it.
Wherein lies the truth of the situation?
We shall see.
t
(Sniff, sniff...)
I feel TERRIBLE! And it's not even true...
t
I agree totally.
t
I meant what I said....
Not even if we finish with a winning record. Not even if we make the playoffs. Not even if we win a playoff series.
I did not mean to imply that it wouldn't ever be about NEXT season. Or the season after.
You said it better than I could
What, so if we fail this year we blow up the team?
All I'm saying is that making the playoffs, while I'm hoping it happens, is not necessary in order to take away plenty of positives from this season.
But don't think that being realistic about my team's chances against some very formidable competition in the West means I don't want them to come out and try their best every single night.
Don't think I'm not going to show up at games, and yell my lungs out, and post on fan sites.
But I'm not going to put a gun up to my head and end it all just because the 3rd youngest team in the history of the NBA doesn't make the playoffs, with one of their star players on the bench.
Give them time. Don't let disappointment over an ultimately meaningless playoff spot (unless, of course, they were to win a championship) dampen your enthusiasm for what this team has already accomplished this year.
I feel
by Billy Ray Bates on Feb 8, 2008 11:02 AM PST up reply actions
I love this team...
If you get more joy out of following the team and banking on the best possible outcome in any circumstance, who am I to tell you how to spend your time? On the other hand some of us get just as much pleasure and excitement even just looking at things as they are. Whether or not the Blazers make the playoffs, it has been more fun following the season this year than it has been for me since before Clyde left. I like this reality kick, it is really working for me. :)
by Billy Ray Bates on Feb 8, 2008 11:49 AM PST up reply actions
CORRECT!
If you want to live you life pining for how great things are going to be five years from now if A, B, C, and D happen for the Blazers (and presuming the rest of the league stagnates and stays in place and doesn't respond to the A, B, C, D of the only dynamic team in the league) -- hey, have at it!
For me: this season is about this season.
And next season is next season.
And when KP flushes this season by not fixing the hole at the low post, that's on him.
And when Nate coaches bizarrely and needlessly dumps games this season, that's on him.
And there's no doubt that the Blazers will be better next year. Which is fine.
t
Well, then I'm glad you're not the GM.
Every team, every year...
Here's a true fact to ponder: no team has EVER won a title without making the playoffs first.
t
Another fact to ponder...
Nice as making the playoffs is, and as important a step as that is, you've gotta have your eyes on the higher goal if you really want the rings.
The Qualifier there...
During the Blazers All-time-NBA-record consecutive playoff appearance streak from 1982-1983 through 2002-2003, they did not win a single championship.
And, of course, Utah has won no championships.
I'm genuinely confused about something
It seems to me that when you constantly make deals just to get better for one season, without any long-term planning in place for position duplication or salary-cap ramifications, what you get is IT's Knicks.
by BlazersOrBust on Feb 8, 2008 3:19 AM PST up reply actions
Excellent question
Or Portland. A lot of people really questioned whether trading Zach would help us win more games this year. It doesn't help us re: salary cap until summer 09. It was part of acquiring Rudy, which won't help us until next year (if then). It means more PT for LMA, but few expected that to help us win more games this year, just to help his development for the future.
Now, I'm convinced trading Zach has helped us this year. But even if it didn't, if it only helped next year and beyond, would that automatically make it a bad move?
Should a team never trade an established player for a young prospect? That's sacrificing this year for the future, isn't it?
Okay, one more time...
- I do not want to see KP dismantling the team's future for short-term success.
- This means the following individuals are untouchable: ROY, ODEN, LMA, OUTLAW, PRIZBILLA, BLAKE, WEBSTER.
- I also do not believe in the tooth fairy or Disney movies. I do not believe "Gosh, our chemistry's swell!" is a substitute for the lack of a low post game.
- Objectively OR subjectively -- THE BLAZERS SUCK AT THE LOW POST. They do not have the horses to get the job done, nor has the coach given this problem sufficient attention.
- Every season is important -- especially this one, where we are on the bubble or making the playoffs and learning valuable lessons FOR THE FUTURE from that.
- It is KP's DUTY to try and get the Blazers into the playoffs every year -- WITHOUT destroying the team's long-term core.
- There are tradeable players on this unit. There are more draft picks in hand than can be accomodated with team contracts. Therefore, there is a position to trade FROM.
- There is a need for at least one SOLID LOW POST PLAYER -- in addition to Oden next year. Somebody that can defend and rebound (a la Pryz). Scoring an added benefit, but not strictly required.
- Therefore, KP has a DUTY to deal players not in the long-term future plan to acquire the player NEEDED to MAKE THE PLAYOFFS THIS YEAR, even at the expense of the "Gol, our chemistry is swell! I love everything!" vibe.
- Even if KP's attempt to fix the problem fails, like Golden State's effort with Webber seems sure to fail, THE EFFORT COUNTS. That's his job -- TO TRY.
Thank you for your attention.
Now read it again before you start hammering me.
t
fair enough
1.) We agree that the low post, both offensively and on the boards, is a weakness for this team. However: what effective low-post player is available for trade or signing that we would actually be able to obtain? (Don't say Oden.)
2.) I'm of the opinion that our chemistry, more than our talent or current level of ability, is what's fueling our playoff push this year. Assuming KP feels the same way, why would he want to make a trade? The move that would allegedly "help" us might in fact take away our biggest strength. Think of it as the reverse of the Z-bo trade, or the Rod Strickland pickup years back--subtraction by addition.
coupla comment on these points...
Can't argue with every season being important, but there is a lot of leeway in determining what the focus is on. i.e.: Getting into the first round now vs. building a team to compete deep into the playoffs over the next 8 years. These are two different goals one could have over the course of a given season that don't necessarily require the same set of personnel moves. Look at the Bulls. They are trying to make the playoffs this year at the expense of developing their youth. It is wearing out their older guys, preventing them from developing their youth, and creating chemistry problems in the locker room just to try and fill the stands for a few extra home games.
"6. It is KP's DUTY to try and get the Blazers into the playoffs every year -- WITHOUT destroying the team's long-term core."
Did Paul Allen tell you this himself or is that just a wild guess as to Pritchard's job description?
"8. There is a need for at least one SOLID LOW POST PLAYER -- in addition to Oden next year. Somebody that can defend and rebound (a la Pryz). Scoring an added benefit, but not strictly required."
This is a little confusing. Talking about next year needing another low post player, and mentioning two solid guys in the same breath doesn't add up to me. NBA teams are lucky if they have two big men that can do the work down low that we are all expecting from Oden and Ghostface next year. Also consider LaMarcus is still just halfway through his sophomore season, and has missed considerable time due to injury up to now. He hasn't reached his potential as far as size and learning to put a body on opposing rebounders yet. Forget that he is still expanding what is already a neat little offensive game.
"9. Therefore, KP has a DUTY to deal players not in the long-term future plan to acquire the player NEEDED to MAKE THE PLAYOFFS THIS YEAR, even at the expense of the "Gol, our chemistry is swell! I love everything!" vibe."
Who is or is not in our long term future plans as of now? This team has so much youth, it is awful early to say at this point which players will reach their full potential, or what roles the team will need to have filled once everyone starts growing up and we can see what we are dealing with. Pritchard is going to show the kind of patience needed to sort out the answers to these questions, which is why he is our man.
"10. Even if KP's attempt to fix the problem fails, like Golden State's effort with Webber seems sure to fail, THE EFFORT COUNTS. That's his job -- TO TRY."
Great. That's exactly the kind of thinking that gets you a team like the NY Knicks. I don't want a GM that makes moves just for the sake of doing something. If you don't think KP has been putting forth every effort to assemble the best Blazers team possible, then you should probably follow a sport you can better understand. Have you heard about the one where they roll a heavy ball down at a cluster of upright objects called "pins"? You get two chances to knock them all down. Maybe that would be your speed. ;)
by Billy Ray Bates on Feb 8, 2008 11:43 AM PST up reply actions
I've said my piece.
t
We use to say
Blazers rapid improvement under Nate
This diary cuts right to the chase.
As a lifelong fan commenting for the first time on Blazer's Edge, I want to say how much fun it has been watching this team develop since the start of the 06/07 season.
Even though the Blazers are a growing and exciting team, looking at all the other talent in the West vs. what we have here in Portland, it's hard to project a better record than around the 44-47 mark on the winning side. Anyone that's followed the team for a while would have to consider that a huge success, and if the western conference wasn't stacked so deep that would be good enough to get into the postseason.
Also a big thanks thanks to whoever killed Tony Luftman!
Anyone who has been watching this team
You play to win the game.
Greg Oden says he wants to win 15 championships. Thats like for every season he plays. It will be easier for him to fit in so the team can make up for the mistakes Oden might make for being a rookie.
The blazers had the early funk because they were getting to just know each other without Randolf. Then boom, 13 game winning streak, unheard of. They have just been playing together for 2 months.
Like coach said, we refuse to do things the easy way.
by theanomaly777 on Feb 7, 2008 11:21 PM PST reply actions
Don't forget...
How's that for some positive spin?
Finally, a real blazer fan.
by theanomaly777 on Feb 9, 2008 4:38 AM PST up reply actions

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