Surprise best small forward and best defender for Blazers

by sonofagun on Dec 9, 2008 2:06 PM PST

According to 82games.com our best small forward when matched head to head against the other team's small forward is . . . Brandon Roy - - and he plays at small forward far better than he plays shooting guard. While he plays at small forward he is also the team's best defender in head to head matchups. Guess who is second? Sergio Rodriguez! [With Oden and Batum taking third and fourth].

Here is the list of head to head matchups in order of the overall [not matchup] rating that each player received from 82games.com. Keep in mind that P.E.R. is a rating system taking into account all measurable productivity a player has on the court and that the average NBA player has a 15.0 P.E.R. So the chart below essentially compares the P.E.R. of our player when he is playing the designated position against the other player at that position during that same time span.

Player Pos. P.E.R. Opp. P.E.R. (at same position) Net

+7.7 Roy S.G. 21.5 17.9 +3.6

S.F. 29.8 9.3 +20.5

+4.9 Aldridge P.F. 19.3 16.9 +2.4

+3.9 Rodriguez P.G. 15.5 13.3 +2.2

+3.1 Fernandez S.G. 21.5 17.4 +4.1

+1.0 Blake P.G. 17.8 15.7 +2.1

+.9 Batum S.F. 16.0 14.2 +1.8

-.7 Oden C. 18.5 14.0 +4.6

-.9 Przybilla C. 20.3 23.0 -2.7

-2.1 Outlaw S.F. 15.0 15.6 -.6

P.F. 18.4 19.5 -1.1

-2.6 Webster S.F. 13.9 16.6 (2007-2008 numbers) -2.7

-5.4 Frye P.F. 13.2 15.4 -2.1

C. 11.7 17.1 -5.4

-8.8 Bayless P.G. 8.4 15.6 -7.2

So, the evidence is clear that our two point guards are adequate defenders this year within the scheme of our defense. Blake holds his opponents to a smidge over the "average" NBA player (which is worse than the average starter) and Rodriguez holds his player far below the "average" NBA player. They have both TREMENDOUSLY improved their offensive and defensive play. Blake has improved his offense from last years 13.6 to 17.8 and his head to head defense has improved from 17.4 last year to 15.7 this year. Rodriguez has even improved more. Last year he had a miserable 9.5 offensive rating, this year he is up to a respectable 15.5, but more importantly his defense has improved from 17.2 to 13.3! That will get it done.

Roy currently plays 1/3 of his minutes at small forward. Should that number increase considering his unbelievable performance at small forward and Fernandez's impressive numbers at shooting guard?

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Comments

interesting

how do they determine who is the PG/SG/SF in a given lineup?

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Dec 9, 2008 2:12 PM PST reply actions

not sure

perhaps its a matter of looking at all five players and filling in the slots based on what makes most sense given the lineup

by sonofagun on Dec 9, 2008 3:04 PM PST up reply actions

I'm not of the method used at 82games.com, but ...

I bet that Brandon Roy is deemed a small forward when playing alongside Rudy Fernandez.

by AK1984 on Dec 9, 2008 10:51 PM PST up reply actions

interesting stuff

One thing i will unequivocally agree with, Sergio is not getting enough credit for his vastly improved defense this year. He is our best defending PG currently

Rooo-D!

by truls on Dec 9, 2008 2:13 PM PST reply actions

Thanks for saying that truls.

I couldn’t agree more. He has the quickness to defend and this year he is using it.

by TwoDeep on Dec 9, 2008 6:54 PM PST up reply actions

I suspect this is happening

because we’re often going with Steve, Brandon, and Rudy at the end of close games, and the ball is almost always in Brandon’s hands in those situations. And, as we all know, he’s clutch. :)

So through the game, he might only take a shot every couple of minutes, but at the end of the game when he’s at SF, he might take 3 shots in the last two minutes, and knock down two of them, and pick up an assist or two as well — good for PER, I would guess.

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by jscot on Dec 9, 2008 2:36 PM PST reply actions

Good point

But he plays a lot of minutes in this line up and so it is still probative. He plays a point forward which should normally score high in PER. I am more impressed with the defense he plays at small forward versus scoring guard. This should not really be skewed by the end of game scenarios, perhaps he defends better against the slightly slower but stronger players.

by sonofagun on Dec 9, 2008 3:03 PM PST up reply actions

Actually

he bumps up his defense at the end of games, too. We’ve seem some major shutdowns at the end of a game that you don’t see otherwise.

Even though it is only the last 2-3 minutes, it skews the numbers better. It clearly isn’t the whole story, though. As you say, he probably defends better when he has a quickness advantage. That’s not uncommon. The quickness advantage is probably part of the offensive story, too. Most SFs don’t have enough of a size advantage over him to make up for the quickness disadvantage.

Do you like asparagus?

by jscot on Dec 10, 2008 12:04 AM PST up reply actions

This is why statistics can be made to lie.

Observationally we know that Sergio isn’t a good defender, he’s passable, but the disparity in PER probably has as much to do with facing second line talent as it does him playing good perimeter D.

Secondly, if all you are doing is basing defensive ability on stats then we’d have to surmise that Joel is a defenisve liability, which we know isn’t true. More likely the barrage of NBA star big men have skewed the numbers, since it seems we got matched up against all of them at least once in the first 20 games.

by nikolokolus on Dec 9, 2008 2:44 PM PST reply actions

True statistics can lie but they do have uses

For instance, you can compare from one year to the next. Last year, Sergio and Blake were far worse. While some of Sergio’s minutes are against second team players, he is getting too many minutes now not to be playing against starters for about 25% of his minutes. Last year, he scored much worse playing only against second team players. While he gets beat off the dribble, so does every good point guard in the league. Every game! Point guards can always blow past their primary defender. What is important is to deny the open jumper, drive them towards help defense, and deny the easy pass. That is what this type of statistic measures fairly well and that is where Sergio and Blake have improved.

As to Joel, Joel is not a great individual defender. So the centers, who tend to get more PER because of rebounds and more efficient scoring inside, will look high against him. In addition, we have played a murderer’s row of centers so far this season as you suggtest.

by sonofagun on Dec 9, 2008 2:59 PM PST up reply actions

Even if Sergio's numbers are coming against second unit opposition,

it should still indicate to some degree that he’s playing decent to pretty good defense against the guy’s he’s matched up against.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Dec 9, 2008 6:56 PM PST up reply actions

Doesn't playing next to Roy help those stats?

by rmcdougall on Dec 9, 2008 3:47 PM PST reply actions

who you play with should make a difference

However, not sure in which direction. For example, when Roy gets an assist, someone is the beneficiary. However, when he gets a rebound, someone else on the team may not get a rebound because Roy got there first. Defensively, anyone who is good at help defense, like Oden, will improve everyone elses defensive stats. The corollary is that if you play with people who are not good at help defense, your defense will look worse.

by sonofagun on Dec 9, 2008 4:04 PM PST up reply actions

Nice post. Good stuff.

I doubt if it’s available, but wouldn’t it be interesting to know what the average DIFFERENCE is between an opposing player’s PER when matched up against a particular guy versus his average PER?

For instance, if Sergio holds PGs to 2 points of PER off their average numbers, that would be compelling. As it is, it’s hard to tell if this is “noise” due to Sergio typically facing second unit guys.

Either way, interesting stuff and not necessarily what you would expect. I bet Blake/Sergio’s numbers are helped tremendously by the presence of Oden – now there’s ALWAYS somebody to dissuade little PGs from attacking the bucket, as opposed to before, when Pryz was on the bench and it was open season.

I always find this portion of 82games.com interesting, as well, because the numbers never seem to track espn’s PER stats. I think for some reason 82games.com inflates everyone’s PER. Off the top of my head, looks like everybody’s between one and three points higher on 82games.

Not sure what to make of Pryz’s opposing PER numbers. Maybe it’s skewed based on a few outlier performances. He’s certainly getting his share of rebounds and blocks, but maybe his help on the weakside has allowed opposing Cs to put up big numbers, even while helping the D overall.

Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.

by KP Corleone on Dec 9, 2008 3:53 PM PST reply actions

I've always wanted to know the same thing.....

I doubt if it’s available, but wouldn’t it be interesting to know what the average DIFFERENCE is between an opposing player’s PER when matched up against a particular guy versus his average PER?

I’ve thought of this many times when looking at the 82games.com numbers. It seems like it would not be all that hard to calculate if the set up their data collection efforts in the right way.

by PoliSam on Dec 9, 2008 4:08 PM PST up reply actions

That would be an awesome stat

I suppose we could figure it out manually, but it would be easier if some stat geek.com did it for us. I agree that Blake and Sergio’s numbers are helped by the level of help defense they get from Przybilla and Oden. Batum and Aldridge seem to do pretty well with help defense also. And yes, I think people who are strong at team defense sometimes see their opposing player do better. But look at what Jermaine O’Neal did to Przybilla, he is just better at helping than holding down the fort. Oden seems to do better against most centers, although he suffers against the European style centers who shoot the long ball.

by sonofagun on Dec 9, 2008 4:11 PM PST up reply actions

Re Joel and Oden both

I seem to remember a lot of Blocks that go back to the offensive team because our wings didn’t get them. That could offset good defense when the center scores anyway even though the Joel or Greg actually played good defense

That 70's show:
Kelso: Red! I guess ur wondering why I'm going through your stuff. See, I needed to borrow your saw...because I need to chop down a tree...because there's something stuck in it...an animal...a rabbit...and I would like to return that rabbit to the wild so it can lay its eggs!

Red: Kelso, rabbits don't..............how the hell did a rabbit get up a tree?

Kelso: uhhhhhh Eric threw it up there.

Red: Eric threw a rabbit up a tree?

Kelso: Yeah, he's a sadistic bastard.

by 92wastheyear on Dec 9, 2008 4:17 PM PST up reply actions

I agree

I have been liking Roy at the SF spot. He is truly my favorite player.

I am done with Trade Posts.

Just sign Rondo in '09

by TheGreatDane17 on Dec 9, 2008 4:56 PM PST reply actions

Where did you come from sonofagun?

Of course I know you came from a gun, but I’m taken back by the insight you seem to have for the game. Nice job.

by TwoDeep on Dec 9, 2008 7:00 PM PST reply actions

thanks

I’ve been reading this site since the rebuilding phase started with the blazers a few years back. But just joined a few months ago. I played bball in Portland in the 70s but I had a basketball IQ of about 50, relying on athletic ability. So anything I may have learned is from the 12 and 13 year olds I have coached down in OC and the tricks I had to pick up as an older player whose vertical is down to about 3 inches!

by sonofagun on Dec 9, 2008 11:49 PM PST up reply actions

Agreeing again

As I did to the recent post about Sergio’s effectiveness, I agree here, too. Both are helping the Blazers win, more than many posters suggest when they criticize either player.

Neither player, in my view, is the reason Portland is not yet Boston. Boston is Boston because they have three experienced stars upon whom they can rely consistently. Portland has Brandon Roy, a guy who has some star-like games (Aldridge), and very capable players at the other three positions.

For Portland to become a true contender for the title,

1. One of the two bigs—Aldridge or Oden—needs to become a star, and the other needs to become a top 8ish player at his position; and

2. Everyone needs more experience—at least this year and probably next.

We can live without a strong backup guy at the 4. A better backup there would help, and we cannot rule out completely that Channing could become that—although his recent performances are so bad that faith feels foolish.

We can win a title with Blake and Serge. Chicago did it with far less. In fact, the Blazers once did, too; Blake and Serge are better than Dave Twardzik and Johnny Davis, and their team went 4-1 in the their first NBA final.

by Hulk on Dec 10, 2008 12:31 PM PST reply actions