Our Schedule vs. Theirs

We've had several discussions about relative schedules vs. other contenders for the Western Conference playoffs.  I thought I would give some breakdown on this to help us see where we are and what may lie ahead.

CATEGORIZING GAMES BY DIFFICULTY

Some have chosen to break down teams as elite, mid-level, and weak, but this gets pretty subjective as to dividing lines.  Is Orlando elite?  What about Phoenix or San Antonio?  Detroit's record is as good as the Spurs.  Is Indiana mid-level or weak?  What about the Knicks (who after all are still near .500)?

Therefore, I'm going to use the simple dividing line advocated by upper left corner in his fan post on what a 50 win season looks like -- teams that are at or over .500, and teams that are below .500.  At this point, I would suggest that, barring significant injuries or crazy hot streaks, those categories are already pretty stable.  I expect Toronto to move into winning territory by season's end.  I won't be surprised to see NJ move into losing territory, but neither will I be surprised to see them stay over .500.  Toronto is the only team I really expect to change.

Now, as upper left corner stated, there's a big difference between home games and road games.  This is sometimes more pronounced with teams below .500, but it applies to winning teams as well.  Last year, the 16 teams at or above .500 won 344 and lost 312 on the road and won 485 and lost 171 at home.  On average, the 16 teams won 9 more games at home than on the road.  The greatest gap was Utah, with 20 more home wins than away wins.  Only Orlando won more away than at home.

Therefore, it makes sense to look at home games differently from away games, and upper left corner posited four categories:

1. Home games against teams under .500.
2. Home games against teams over .500.
3. Road games against teams under .500.
4. Road games against teams over .500.

Obviously, the fourth category is the most difficult one, the games that you don't expect to win that often.  To be a contender for a good seed in the playoffs, you need to win almost all of category 1 and the majority of categories 2 and 3, and pick up some in category 3.

We are (obviously) leading the "best of the rest" pack after the L@kers, but how likely are we to maintain a good position?  One aspect that helps is the strength of our schedule so far -- we've played a tougher schedule than any of the other contenders.  We all know this, whatever Hollinger's strength of schedule statistics might say.  This post is an attempt to help quantify that. 

EDIT: it was pointed out below that Hollinger rates us with a higher strength of schedule than the other contenders.  I think I must have read what someone said on another post wrongly, because this is true.  Phoenix is close behind us in Hollinger's ratings.  A couple other teams have played tougher schedules, according to Hollinger, but none of the Western contenders.

GAMES PLAYED

As I posted elsewhere, one simple aspect of schedule difficulty is how many games you have played.  If you have fewer games left on your schedule, you have more time in between for rest, recovery from niggling injuries, and more time to prepare for the next opponent.  In this category, we lead the pack, along with Utah.

• 22 games played -- Portland and Utah
• 21 games -- Houston, Phoenix, and Denver
• 19 games -- LA, Dallas, San Antonio
• 17 games -- New Orleans

Slight edge for Portland over LA, Dallas, SA, more of an edge over NO.

ROAD GAMES

As has been noted elsewhere, we lead the league in road games played.

• 15 road games -- Portland
• 12 -- Houston
• 11 -- Phoenix and Denver
• 10 -- Dallas and Utah
• 8 -- LA, SA, NO.

Edge for Portland over all teams, especially LA, SA, & NO.

STRENGTH OF OPPOSITION

PORTLAND

• Category One (3-0)
• Cat Two (4-0)
• Cat Three (5-1)
• Cat Four (3-6)

L@KERS

• Cat One (5-0)
• Cat Two (5-1)
• Cat Three (3-1)
• Cat Four (4-0)

DENVER

• Cat One (5-0)
• Cat Two (2-3)
• Cat Three (5-1)
• Cat Four (2-3)

NEW ORLEANS

• Cat One (2-1)
• Cat Two (4-2)
• Cat Three (3-1)
• Cat Four (2-2)

HOUSTON

• Cat One (4-1)
• Cat Two (2-2)
• Cat Three (3-1)
• Cat Four (4-4)

UTAH

• Cat One (6-1)
• Cat Two (3-2)
• Cat Three (4-3)
• Cat Four (0-3)

DALLAS

• Cat One (3-0)
• Cat Two (2-4)
• Cat Three (4-2)
• Cat Four (2-2)

SAN ANTONIO

• Cat One (4-0)
• Cat Two (2-5)
• Cat Three (4-1)
• Cat Four (1-2)

PHOENIX

• Cat One (1-0)
• Cat Two (4-5)
• Cat Three (5-1)
• Cat Four (2-3)

Note that in Cat Four games (road games against winning teams), we've played 9, Houston has played 8, and no one else has played more than five!  Utah and San Antonio have only played 3, and with unimpressive results.

Hollinger rates Phoenix' schedule as tough in part, obviously, because they've only had one home game against a weak team, and have played 14 games against teams with winning records.  But 9 of those 14 are at home, while 9 of our 13 against winning teams have been on the road.

Utah has obviously been fortunate to get 14 of their 22 games against losing teams (by far the most of any Western contender), which helps a lot when you have injuries, but does mean their schedule will be much tougher the rest of the way.

RANKING BY CAT 4 GAMES PLAYED

• 9 -- Portland
• 8 -- Houston
• 5 -- Phoenix and Denver
• 4 -- LA, NO, Dallas
• 3 -- SA and Utah

In terms of the most difficult games, Portland has significantly fewer of those remaining than everyone except Houston

RANKING BY CAT 1 GAMES PLAYED

• 1 -- Phoenix
• 3 -- Dallas, Portland, New Orleans
• 4 -- San Antonio
• 5 -- Houston, Denver, LA
• 7 -- Utah

In terms of the easiest games, only Phoenix has more remaining than us.

BACK TO BACKS

Back to back games are difficult, especially if the second game is on the road.  Remaining back to back games (second game on the road in parentheses):

• Portland 10 (8).  We also have 4 in 5 nights twice, once on the East Coast and once in April.  Both games in San Antonio are the second game of a back to back (whose idea was THAT?).
• LA 14 (12).  Look at that.  They also play both games at San Antonio as the second of a back to back.  Did Stern decide this is the Spurs year again?
• Denver 16 (11).  They only had one game at San Antonio this year, already played.  You guessed it, it was the second of a back to back.  Is this ridiculous?
• New Orleans 13 (9).  Stern must like them.  Only one of their games at the Spurs is the second of a back to back, the other is the last game of the season.
• Houston 14 (10) 
• Utah 15 (14)
• Dallas 12 (7)
• San Antonio 14 (7).  That's right.  Half of their remaining back to backs finish at home.  They've had 4 back to backs so far, all with the second game on the road, so I guess it isn't quite as lopsided as it looks.
• Phoenix 13 (11).

We have significantly fewer back to backs than anyone, and fewer with the second game on the road than anyone expect David Stern's favorite team.

By the following measures, our remaining schedule is significantly easier than most or all of our competition:

• Fewer remaining road games / more home games 
• Fewer remaining games against teams with winning records, especially road games
• More rest between games
• Fewer back to backs, especially on the road

While a couple teams may have a comparable or even slightly easier record than us in one of these areas, all things considered none of them matches up to the gauntlet we have run, and none of them have as light a schedule remaining as we do.

Note also that this disparity in schedule difficulty is going to increase through this month, as we clear two more of our Cat Four games, and seven of the ten remaining games are against winning teams (perhaps eight, if Toronto rights their ship quickly).  By the end of the month, we will have played 20 games against teams with winning records and 12 against losing teams.  If we win more than half of our remaining games this month, we should be favorites not just to make the playoffs, but to get into the top 6 seeds.