Western Perennials

by Blazin' on Dec 8, 2008 2:14 PM PST

We are getting some separation in the West. And things look pretty knotted at the 2-9 seed. But wait, there is no 9 seed! Musical chairs anyone?

Here they are, our enemies!:

LA, Utah, San Antonio, Houston, New Orleans, Dallas, Phoenix, Denver

I find it difficult to feel comfortable with a 2 1/2 game lead over any of these teams.

By the numbers, we seem to have an edge:

1. We've played 15 of 22 on the road. That means we get to play 34 of 60 at home.

2. We play 17 out of 60 against lower Western teams OKC, Memphis, LAC, Minnesota, Golden State and Sac.

3. And 21 more against the East.

4. That leaves 22 games against the Western Perennials against whom we are currently 3-5. These games are triply important because:

-they are a prelude to whatever playoff match-up we draw.

-a win or loss represents a +/- 2 in the standings.

-symbolically, as these teams have owned the West.

I find it difficult to lump the Eastern teams together for degree of difficulty for Portland because of matchups, coaching changes and the weirdness of upside down East-West balance. Toronto, Washington and New York games give me reason to think that any Eastern matchup could be a battle. And yet, we have performed really well against the East this year.

Not comfortable calling any game against Golden State or Minnesota a sure thing. And maybe that is the thing about this Blazer team. You look at a given matchup and it is hard to say that they are assured of victory. But, the Blazers keep winning all of these close games. and they keep winning at home. Nice!

That said, I will be looking at those 22 games as the most reliable predictor of our playoff chances and the general ascendancy of this team.

Go Blazers!

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Comments

Good Post

I also think those 22 are the key. Another interesting stat to research would be how many times those western teams will be meeting each other, therefor stifling each others chances while we play traditionally weaker opponents. I’m already scoreboard watching and passionately rooting against teams like Dallas and Phoenix who are towards the bottom, and of course Utah and Denver who will be there all season. (Damn Billups trade!) I wont wish for injuries but certainly the health of McGrady, D. Will, Booze bag, and others may play a signif. role as well.
The best way to not have to worry about these variables is winning against these teams, and continue to protect home court. Utah only lost 4 at home last year. Can we approach that with 34 left?

"Rudy’s flashy passes had the place whispering to each other like we were in junior high" ~BlazermaniacAndy

by courtsideerrandboy on Dec 8, 2008 2:30 PM PST reply actions

Thanks!

And agreed, one or more of these teams are likely to have injuries that set them back.

Our current record, Rose Garden dominance and depth tip this years’ playoff picture towards us.

But our arrival as a contender will be measured more in our performance against the Western powers.

by Blazin' on Dec 8, 2008 2:51 PM PST up reply actions

35-25 for the last 60

We have 34 remaining home games, as long as we have one more road win than home losses for the remainder of the season, we will get 50 wins on the year. We are currently a league leading plus 8 in road wins vs. home losses. At this point in the season, 35-25 is very realistic. At 50 wins we should make a 6-8 seed.

by NWfan on Dec 8, 2008 2:41 PM PST reply actions

If we start knocking off some of the teams on that list,

a 3-6 seed is not unrealistic.

by Blazin' on Dec 8, 2008 3:04 PM PST up reply actions

Good post

As long as we keep beating up the Easts and the Leasts, and manage even 25% (that would be 2-6 instead of 3-5 to date) against the Beasts, we’ll make the playoffs. But until we are winning half of our games against those teams, we aren’t a contender, and we’ll likely get in with a 6-8 seed. Win half of them, and we’re probably 3-5 seed.

Note that we’ve won all 3 against the Beasts at home, and lost all 5 on the road. Arguably, two of those three wins were 50-50 chances and we got the bounce on both of them — but both of those were without Greg, too, and we’re looking very, very strong with Greg in the starting lineup.

Do you like asparagus?

by jscot on Dec 9, 2008 1:01 AM PST reply actions