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Totally Predictable (in fact I did) and Not the Least Bit Discouraging

Maybe I'm crazy, or maybe I don't understand the game, but all the gnashing of teeth and rending of cloth (not to mention most of the media hype) over last night's game seems to miss the point entirely.  This outcome was ENTIRELY PREDICTABLE. If you will forgive me for patting myself on the back for saying something that is pretty obvious, I explained my thinking in a post on Wednesday titled "WHAT 50+ WINS LOOKS LIKE" :

1)  Elite teams rarely loose at home, no matter how good the competition:  elite teams (those winning over 60 games in a season) typically win over 85% of their home games during the regular season.  Occasionally, they will loose a game when they come out flat and the opposition gets hot.  When a good young team comes to town and national coverage is on tap, they are not likely to come out flat.  Even in the playoffs, home teams win over 75% of all games and blowouts are not uncommon.

2)  Good young teams have to learn how to win on the road, and they have to learn how to beat elite teams.  Portland is just learning how to beat NY and Washington on the road.  We are just learning how to beat good teams at home.  Occasionally, we can win against good teams on the road when we have a good shooting night and fresh legs like we did against Detroit.  Our chances of winning against a truly elite team, like Boston, on the fourth road game in six nights, were lousy from the start.  In my earlier post, I pegged  our chances at 1-10.

This game said little about the Blazer's talent level and future prospects and a lot about the context in which it was played:

3)  Besides the physical burden of four road games in six nights, the psychological atmosphere of this game did not bode well for the Blazers.  All the discussion about needing to be "tough" and "not being intimidated" had to make the Blazers tense.  Combine that with the big national spotlight and the memories of the Lakers game on opening night, and the Blazers had to have a lot of subconscious anxiety.  It is almost impossible to shoot well when you are tense, anxious,  and have tired legs.

So what happened?

The Blazers came out and played Boston straight up for a quarter and a half.  Their shots, not surprisingly, were not falling at a good clip, but they hung in there by playing decent defense.  Because the Blazers couldn't hit from the outside, Boston started packing it in and clogging the middle.  The Blazers couldn't hit from outside and couldn't drive, so they started putting up a lot of difficult mid-range jumpers.  This is exactly what happens when the Blazers look "ugly":  no ball movement, no player movement, lots of difficult shoots.  Boston started grabbing rebounds, leaking out their guards, and the Blazers looked bad.  

DON'T BE DISCOURAGED

There is a difference between loosing because your shots don't fall and because you do not know how to respond to the opposing teams ability to control the style of the game, and loosing because the other team clearly has better talent.  I would argue that this game showed the former, rather than the latter. 

This game demonstrated Boston's experience rather than their superiority.  They clearly know how to win.  They know how to play defense, and when the refs allow them to impose their style of play, they are darn tough to beat.  They found a weakness in the Blazer's rebounding scheme and transition defense and they exploited it relentlessly.  Portland's bigs got mugged all night going to the boards and when they tried to push back they got called almost every time.  Home cookin' is home cookin'; it tastes good to the home team.  This is one of my least favorite aspects of the NBA.  The game is simply not called the same way on both teams.  Star players and star teams get star treatment.  I wish the league wouldn't allow teams to play the way Boston does, but it is what it is.  Hopefully, we will get a few more calls when Boston comes to town. 

Nate and the coaches need to address our problems in transition defense.  This has been a consistent problem and the Celtics clearly put a spotlight on the issue.  Other teams are going to continue to try to exploit this until our guys get it figured out.  Our inability to control Rondo was, IMHO, the biggest concern coming out of this game.  

I would argue that Portland needs to beat elite teams at home, before they will have enough confidence to have much of a shot on the road.   If we get waxed when Boston and the L@kers comes to town, I will be far more concerned than I am now.

Remember, even elite teams loose on the road against other good teams.  I think Boston dropped seven of eight road games in the first three rounds of the playoffs last year.  It happens.  Last night does not mean that the Blazers are not a good team.  It means that they have yet to learn how to respond to a team like Boston and the way that the game was called.  There will be other nights when the shots fall, when the refs call a little more of the pushing, shoving, and grabbing. 

If nothing else, time will extract its revenge on KG and the Celtics.  The old alpha-dog is in charge until one day, when suddenly, the young dog stops being afraid and figures how to take advantage of the fact that the old dog has lost a step.  It will happen, be patient.  We will be the alpha team before you know it.

 

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FWIW

I added another comment in that thread showing the impact of the Boston loss….

Do you like asparagus?

by jscot on Dec 6, 2008 2:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks

BTW I recc’ed your post. Obviously we are on the same wave length. I will check out your reply in the other thread.

by upper left corner on Dec 6, 2008 4:24 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Huh

Somehow I forgot to rec this thread. Done now. Yeah, we’re pretty much agreed on this aspect, anyway. Still having a great year.

Do you like asparagus?

by jscot on Dec 7, 2008 6:34 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Commented again

to reflect Toronto win.

Do you like asparagus?

by jscot on Dec 7, 2008 12:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

As far as I can tell, as described in Ben's post,

the only person really discouraged last night was Glen Davis.

My bride points out during my morning after lecture, that he’s just really young in the ways of the adult world. Kind of like every one of our rotation guys. Watching him melt down reminded me how tough all our big babies really are. We are plenty tough. Davis isn’t.

We measured ourselves against the best last night, and learned we’ve still got some growing to do. But I saw enough to know that our time is coming. And by playing against the best, we learn what our deficits are.

Dave, I loved your observation about good coaching covering individual deficits. Now we’ve seen them, and improvement will follow.

I sure did like the things Bayless will soon bring to our team. Toughness, smarts, slashing, shooting from distance, on ball PG defense, smart, team first play. Anybody else thinking we saw our championship PG in waiting last night?

Perfect practice makes perfect.

by Ojala John on Dec 6, 2008 9:29 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Agreed on all fronts......

JBay had a bit of a coming out party last night. That was actually the most noteworthy part of the game.

Thanks, for the nice reply.

by upper left corner on Dec 6, 2008 9:43 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I like your perspective

it’s well thought out and has a lot of valid points…I have deeper concerns than you, however
    The concern I have, is a long standing one and not based on one game….
 It is the coaching staffs preparation or lack there of…I see many basic fundamentals of the game not getting translated out onto the floor….I see attention to team defense not on the forefront….And this particular game, totally playground…..
    It’s a young team and although patience is the buzz word, you can’t treat these men as boys….I have a hard time processing some quite obvious happenings out on the floor…..and most are just basic fundamentals…And when you see a total breakdown in almost every fundamental, as in this game, then you have to wonder what the coaching staff is doing for a living……. these are fine young players with a lot of good character, but continuing to baby them will make them soft. We need some tough love a little less patience and a little more demand, if you will…….
     It’ should be a philosophy and an identification for this team…..play hustle defense, keep fundamentally sound, and let your play do the talking…..talking trash back to the kings of trash on their home court was stupid ….they knew it was coming and they fell into it…..they were baited into it and it comes away looking like KG and Pierce were smarter than the whole team, including the Blazer coaches….
   Losing a game to a better team on their home floor is the case here, but walking away from this game proud should not be the case….They shouldn’t put this game behind them and move on…they need to look at the films and understand that getting to new levels will involve everyone….including the coaching staff
   Garnett made the comment that the Celtics took this game serious and spent a lot of time preparing for playing against the Blazers…..I don’t think anyone on the Blazers could say the same thing …..If they did prepare, it got lost in the translation out on the floor….Not too professional at all………..

'Liability on defense, is an asset on the bench" a quote from my basketball coach, who believed good defense won games and made the offense a product of it

by 67 on Dec 6, 2008 10:25 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Let's see, Nate was selected as the guy to teach defense to our Olympic squad but you think he lacks basic competence?

I agree with several of your points, but certainly not the one about the coaching staff. There is a reason that the team has been improving rapidly over the past two and a quarter seasons, some of it is natural maturation and additional players, but some of it has to be chalked up to good coaching. Several of the players on the O-team lauded Nate’s coaching. There have been a multitude of stories about how much attention Nate pays to defense.

Perhaps it would help me understand your position if you specified “the basic fundamentals” you see as lacking. I do agree that transition defense has been a consistent weakness and that it was very costly last night. Regarding game prep, what do you want the coaches to do? This was the fourth game in six nights. There was not a lot of time to prepare specifically for Boston.

I do agree about the “trash talking.” It is a distraction and a trap for a young team. None the less, it is almost inevitable that some of that will go on. I did not observe much of it on the ESPN telecast.

Basically, I think this was a psyche out game for a young team. That is why I think the Blazers need to win at home in order to gain needed confidence.

by upper left corner on Dec 6, 2008 3:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

well

I watched Nate, when he played the game…he was very defensive minded and tough nose at that…there is not so much argument on what Nate wants to do….the argument is getting it to happen at game time and always making it a focal part of his game plan…defense is mostly hard work, hustle and dedication …..but the mindset of defense has to be drilled into your players until they bring it every game…I would have to say the defense is the weakest point on this team and when the fundamentals aren’t there, it can’t happen….The fundamentals come from coaching….. that is; in transition, you always have a safety valve player back…..this means you need to be ready to fill the vacant spots at center court and never allow the the opposing player to get ahead of you down court…..A lot of this is poor shot selection on offense that leaves you vulnerable or off balance at transition time…..the next step is understanding your ability to get an offensive rebound…if you are aware that the opposing team is sure to get the ball, then all 5 players are to run full steam and target the defensive paint area …once they get there and you need to stop the ball and pick up a player or try to get them to commit the ball to the sidelines…this gives you the benefit of using the sidelines as an extra defender to help stop the ball…..
    blocking out is another missing fundamental…..coaches do drills on blocking out..it is repetitious but is a basic fundamental of rebound positioning…the drill goes like this ; the coach throws the ball up off the backboard and the defenders step in front of their counterparts….the ball is supposed to hit the floor with all the defenders holding their counterparts at bay on their hips….if you do that, you can’t help but get the rebound…even the long ones you have a chance at because you are supposed to be in the other players jock…..
 team defense (rotation defense and help defense) are components of reaction defensive alignments that react to the ball and designed to keep a man in between a possible receiving man and the basket….it can also be playing the passing lanes as well
      position defense, player defense and game plan defense are all parts of a plan on how we will defend the team, a particular player or the act of what spaces we want to control on "D"l….for instance pushing a certain player to his weak hand, or not letting the offense get to their first option, or double teaming, or a particular position to guard a player ; example staying back on Rondo and daring him to take the outside shot instead of letting him blow by you (his favorite and most effective move)…..another basic is never turn your back on the ball
    I mean there is a lot to it…more than what Ive said….my coach used to say you play good defense and the offense will take care of itself….I’ve never known that to be not true….your offense will be a product of good defense= turnovers, steals,rebounding,shot blocking, all will make your offense so much easier, because you get a lot of easy hoops and you won’t wear out your star (Roy) having to work so hard for shots…..
    so what does that have to do with coaching…well a lot…not all of it….but a lot (your players have to execute the plan) ….it is emphasized so much that it becomes a mindset…automatic and part of your teams signature ….if its not getting done..then demand it…..then give them the hammer to get it done and follow up when they don’t do it…it’s tough, unforgiving and essential to being a good team…..it’s something to fall back on when the shots aren’t falling…..it’s something Outlaw could do if he was having a bad offensive night
   The Celtic game was an extreme case of missing just about everything, but defense has been an issue with this team and progress relating to defense is hardly anything noticeable… …. Not time enough to prepare is (IMO) an excuse and one the team dare not use…..It’s the NBA and this is why you have a coaching staff that inputs certain parts of the game….if this is being done, something is getting lost in translation out to the floor…..young teams can take advantage of their youth, but the Blazers often play like old men and let some teams off the hook…defense should be a young teams asset and should not be missing because of lack of hard work and aggressive play….

'Liability on defense, is an asset on the bench" a quote from my basketball coach, who believed good defense won games and made the offense a product of it

by 67 on Dec 6, 2008 9:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah yeah

You might have a point, but it is just easier to blame Frye or the coach.

I’m being sarcastic. I sometimes do that.

by tominhawaii on Dec 6, 2008 11:11 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

sarcasm

is your out, for blinded homerism
  Sorry, but you had it coming

'Liability on defense, is an asset on the bench" a quote from my basketball coach, who believed good defense won games and made the offense a product of it

by 67 on Dec 6, 2008 11:34 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You really, really, really need a hug

What is wrong with having a positive attitude (and being sarcastic)? I know we have recently built up a rivalry based on the subject of homers and non-homers. Admittedly, this is going way off topic in this tread, but I think it is time for us to have a throwdown Bobby Flay style and go toe to toe.

I think we should obey the Blazersedge Conversational Rules, and hash this out mano a mano right now.

Why do you hate homers?

by tominhawaii on Dec 6, 2008 1:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

He doesn't

He just hates you. Your homerism gives him an excuse.

He lives in Alaska, and is jealous of your warm weather.

His kid put a message in a bottle, and some fraud sent it back to her.

He’s a Beavers fan.

I don’t know, maybe there’s another reason. Maybe he thinks you are too GOOFy.

I don’t need a reason to hate you. I do it because I’m me, and I choose to.

Thanks for the conversation, friend.

Do you like asparagus?

by jscot on Dec 6, 2008 1:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Are you throwdown-blockin' me?

You throwdown-blockin’ son-of-a-Laker!

by tominhawaii on Dec 6, 2008 1:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Son, if you're going to swear

at least do it like “L@ker” out of respect for the site. There are pastors and the like who spend time around here.

These kids, no one brought them up right, and we have to keep reminding them. What’s the world coming to?

Do you like asparagus?

by jscot on Dec 6, 2008 2:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

the rivalry you talked about is not perceived by me

 ….you have some fun poking at me and I return the favor I told you before I don’t hate homers..Don’t really hate anybody that I can think of…..I’ll try not to use the “H” word again….It appears to be a personal matter and doesn’t belong ….Besides, I think you didn’t understand my comment if you thought I was blaming the coaches for the loss….I was actually giving them credit for not preparing their team well enough. lack of a game plan, and not getting the fundamentals translated out to the team…….this stuff usually happens before the game and in practice and then is followed up on, during the game…… didn’t see that…so what did I miss?

'Liability on defense, is an asset on the bench" a quote from my basketball coach, who believed good defense won games and made the offense a product of it

by 67 on Dec 6, 2008 2:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sure

I’m confused now.

by tominhawaii on Dec 6, 2008 2:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Isn't that the whole idea?

sometimes it’s better that way…It happens to me too…and you would have to say, its easy for you and I to get confused with each other…..we are rarely in the same book , let alone on the same page……the world is full of us….how did that chant go? we’re here, were not gay….but get used to it, anyway

no harm no foul…..

'Liability on defense, is an asset on the bench" a quote from my basketball coach, who believed good defense won games and made the offense a product of it

by 67 on Dec 6, 2008 3:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Word up

I’ll go pick a fight with bow4meow. He has cat breath.

by tominhawaii on Dec 7, 2008 2:54 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Ummm I have say it was a big talent gap

KG/Powe vs LMA/Frye
Rondo vs Blake/Sergio
Pierce vs Batum/Outlaw
Allen vs Roy
Perkins/Baby vs Oden/Przy

The two matchups where you think the Blazers could win at SG and C both got dominated by the Celtics. The Celtics have better players than the Blazers right now. No amount of experience will make LMA close to KG or Blake close to Rondo or Batum close to Pierce. Its talent.

BINGO, BANGO, BONGO

by blzrfan on Dec 6, 2008 11:21 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I respectfully disagree.

Batum is a rookie who sees limited action. You think Pierce played significantly better his first season? He may have put up better numbers, but he also got a lot more minutes.

Ray Allen was averaging 17 pts, 4.2 Rebs and 3.6 Asts per game in his Third year in the league. Roy is averaging 20.7 pts, 4.3 Rebs, and 5.4 Asts, in about the same MPG.

LMA is getting 15.8, 6.4 and 1.4 in about 33 MPG. KG in his third year got 18.5, 9.6 and 4.2… but as the focal point of the Minnesota offense, and in nearly 40 MPG.

Blake vs Rondo isn’t really a fair comparison, but I would point out that Blake’s 3 pt FG% and FT% is among the best in the league, along with his Assist to Turnover ratio.

This is not a question of raw individual talent. In that kind of comparison we break even or surpass Boston, player for player, at almost every position. What Boston showed us last night is what every Blazers fan who remembers 1977 should already know. This is a team game. A TEAM that plays better TEAM basketball will easily beat a more talented COLLECTION OF PLAYERS.

Write-in Rudy for All-Star 2009!

by Majikj0n on Dec 6, 2008 1:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree, wily veterans know how to win.

Boston clearly knows how to play stifling team defense, although their style of play involves a hell of a lot of stuff that should be called as fouls. This knowledge should not be confused with superior talent.

by upper left corner on Dec 6, 2008 4:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Obviously we have an assessment disagreement

I believe the Celtics starting five is the most talented collection in the NBA with the Lakers being a close second. Three Celtics are potential hall of famers and two are great role players. When you compare Pierce and Batum or KG and LMA, I hope you are mindful of the fact that you are comparing a former MVP and Defensive Player of the Year in KG to LMA. You are also comparing All-NBA, Rookie of the Year, and Multiple All-Star Paul Pierce to Batum. How about Rondo, a 3rd year player playing great defense and getting triple doubles to journeyman Blake. Ray Allen is still very talented and top 10 SG at his age as well.

The Boston team showed what a great TEAM they have and what great TALENTED individual players can achieve when they play together as a TEAM. If you think the Blazers will break even or surpass Boston in terms of individual players at almost every position, well I hope you understand what you are saying. I think you are much more bold and bullish than me and I suspect many other Blazer fans. While I hope the Blazers can become a championship team, I don’t expect the same level of individual achievement.

BINGO, BANGO, BONGO

by blzrfan on Dec 7, 2008 12:06 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

This Boston team could actually break the all-time record for wins. They’ve not played a schedule as hard as ours, but they’ve played some tough games. They are on pace for in excess of 70 wins. They could be one of the greatest teams ever.

We have a lot more depth. In the starting five, they blow us away on talent. Maybe if Oden becomes a superstar we can change that equation.

Do you like asparagus?

by jscot on Dec 7, 2008 6:39 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You make a valid argument.

I’m not trying to say that Boston is a bunch of talentless jerks and our guys walk on water.

I think the major problem here lies in the fact that Boston’s talent is fully realized, while our is, as yet, still just potential. As such, we’re not going to be able to settle this discussion for about 10-15 years, when our young guys are reaching the ends of their careers, like many of Boston’s players are now.

Another problem is that our overall most (potentially) talented players are at different positions on the court than Boston’s are.

So, okay, while I personally think LMA might have the potential to reach Garnett-like status someday, others disagree. That’s fine. We don’t need to compare those players directly to make my point.

- KG was billed as the man-child of his generation. Oden is the being billed in much the same way, and in some regards, I think his potential exceeds KGs.

- Roy has the look of a perennial All-Star and cornerstone of the team, and absolutely clutch. Paul Pierce is those things too.

- Rudy could be as good an outside shooter as Ray Ray, and will almost certainly be a better SCORER than Allen.

- LMA is better now than Kendrick Perkins is ever likely to be.

- Rondo… Well, I already said comparing him to Blake is not fair. Blake is not that type of player, and Rondo is clearly the more talented of the pair, no argument. However, if what we saw from Bayless is any indication, we may already have the guy on our team that’s going to match or exceed Rondo’s talent level.

- Bench. While Boston has a very nice piece (Powe), and so do we (Travis) there’s nothing like the depth on Boston’s bench that we potentially have.

All in all, I do realize that I’m being optimistic and somewhat Homeristic with these views. It’s based on projecting where our team will be in 5-7 years time. If these developments were certainties, then, well, there’d be no point to watching hoops for the next 5-7 years, now would there? Nonetheless, I feel strongly there is not a “large talent gap” here. There certainly is a “large development gap”.

I guess my main point is, in spite of any talent differences, it will always be the TEAM aspect that is MOST important. And that, primarily, is what Boston showed us on Friday night.

Write-in Rudy for All-Star 2009!

by Majikj0n on Dec 7, 2008 8:17 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Good points, well argued.

Boston’s big 3 is a collection of perennial all-stars. These guys are extremely talented individual players. Rondo is a very impressive young talent. Dude, is flat out fast, and is quickly developing into one of the top PGs in the league. In other words, I get your point: Portland is not yet at this level, and it would be presumptuous to suggest otherwise.

On the other hand, I think MajikjOn makes a number of good arguments in his response above.

I think what makes Boston so special is their team defense. In a way, I think they did us a favor by spanking us the other night. Nate has been consistently preaching defense, the team just got a very humbling demonstration of how important team defense is to success at the highest level. Nate should have no problem getting the undivided attention of his young players.

I am looking forward to today’s game. I hope the Blazers are going to demonstrate renewed commitment to team defense. If they do, it will be an indication that they are taking Friday’s “lesson” to heart.

by upper left corner on Dec 7, 2008 12:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Question: Are you willing to eat crow if the Blazers beat them at home?

As I pointed out in my post, the “superior” Celtics lost 7 of their first 8 games on the road during the playoffs last spring. Does that mean they suck?

by upper left corner on Dec 6, 2008 3:54 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think this was the point of my "What 50+ Wins...." post

In B-ball no single game is definitive as to which team is superior. Teams get hot, teams go cold. Adjustments are made to both offensive and defensive schemes. That’s why they play playoff series.

The Blazers lost on the road to NO by 7, and then won at home by 15.

My point is to not overreact to the Blazer’s loss to Boston

by upper left corner on Dec 7, 2008 8:16 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The difference between the Celtics and Warriors game are night and day

Celtics absolutely dismantled the Blazers on both sides of the ball in every facet of the game. There is no shame in saying the Celtics are on another level, the players and coaches even said it. Celtics could have one of the best regular season ever in history. Who knows how the Blazers end up.

BINGO, BANGO, BONGO

by blzrfan on Dec 7, 2008 12:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

No, doesn't mean that

It just means that home-court was enough to overcome their advantage in talent and experience.

Do you like asparagus?

by jscot on Dec 7, 2008 6:40 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

posturing by the majority of fans here last night and today

getting just a little bit melodramatic about toughness and enforcers and killer instinct and warriors….pretty much every single fanpost is consumed with this.

hey, i wondered why we didnt pick up reggie evans rather than diogu or shavlik, but figured nate knows reggie from seattle, and may know that hes an uncoachable fool.

all this tough guy talk just seems really cheap. let the team, and nate, work it out. dont be hysterical.

and no, upper left corner, im not addressing you.

ignacio

by ignacio on Dec 6, 2008 9:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I like Reggie Evans

He who life can no longer surprise raises his eyes, beholds a planet unknown. - Peter Gabriel

by 22baylor on Dec 7, 2008 2:11 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

just one game

if you pretend that they don’t struggle in the same ways in many games.. they need to get to learning..

they lost this game because Boston is an elite team but they didn’t give themselves a chance to win because they have been playing poorly since Detroit and just keep falling into the same poor execution…

Great teams win the games they are supposed to despite adversity and put themselves in position to win games they are not supposed to win.. We seem to have a knack so far for the first. The Blazers next developmental step needs the second.

Boycott Rose Garden Concessions!!!
http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/11/8/657044/boycotting-rose-garden-con

by idoltime on Dec 6, 2008 12:08 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Yes, but.....

My point wasn’t that they should be given a pass and that there is nothing to be learned from this game. Quite the contrary, there is a lot for the team to learn. My point is that this is a natural process. They are not going to get from Point A to Point C without going through Point B, which includes getting schooled by the Champs and the refs on the Champs home floor.

Yes, they struggle consistently with certain aspects of team defense (transitions anyone?). On offense, when they can’t hit from the outside, teams consistently pack the middle. They need better low post scoring and they need someone beside Brandon who can score off the dribble. When they start hesitating on their outside shots, it just gets worse. My point is that none of these seem like fatal flaws that cannot be addressed by the continued development of the team.

by upper left corner on Dec 6, 2008 4:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

We should be thanking Boston.

For taking us seriously enough to bring their A-Game. For showing our young guys what championship caliber play looks like. For taking out the somewhat-dusty hat called “Playoff Intensity”, and putting it on so we can see what it looks like.

So far, the Blazers have been so far ahead of the development curve, it’s ridiculous. Now is EXACTLY the time where they are ready to see what the next stage of development looks like. Where the next challenges are. How the game REALLY looks when you get to the finals, and all the marbles are on the line.

This game was the best possible learning experience. Long-term, having only one additional loss on our record is really a small price to pay for the potential benefit the memory and experience of having played this game is going to have on ALL the guys on our team who saw it.

(One slightly OT closing note: Is it just me, or did Jerryd Bayless look less intimidated out there than any other player in Blazers colors? This guy might have just played his way into some additional PT, sooner rather than later.)

Write-in Rudy for All-Star 2009!

by Majikj0n on Dec 6, 2008 12:50 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Yes Majik,

BayBay showed me a lot last night.

I’ve gone from Kopenen type “wouldn’t it be lovely if…” to He’s a baller, and a very complimentary. And will soon be ready for his coming out party. I’m much more hopeful.

And we did earn the Celt’s focused effort. All in all not too bad.

Perfect practice makes perfect.

by Ojala John on Dec 6, 2008 1:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Nice post

"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla

by hurryup09 on Dec 6, 2008 7:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

JBay looked very good to me.

He definitely did not look intimidated. I think his “attitude” can over time provide something very positive to this team, so can his ability to drive the ball. I am anxious to see him get more time on the court so we can all get a sense of what he can contribute and what he needs to develop.

by upper left corner on Dec 6, 2008 4:12 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Kid definitely has hop

Did you see him elevate when he tried to jam over Perkins? Looked like he was a foot and a half above the rim.

by JRitz on Dec 6, 2008 4:15 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

It was absolutely predictable that the Blazers would lose last night--for all the reasons you list

What was not predictable is that they would lose like they did—that is, that they would once again be like little kids being bullied by their big brother until they practically went crying to their mom. It was every bit as bad as a year ago, and that surprised me. Did you predict that by late in the game, Kevin Garnett would be on all fours, barking like a dog while taunting the thoroughly cowed and intimidated Blazers? Sorry—didn’t see that one coming. And I’m not very happy about it; it doesn’t bode well for the future of this team.

On the other hand, that kind of humiliation can make a person—or team—vengeful enough that they resolve to never let it happen again. I’d hoped last year’s Celtic matchups would have already accomplished that. But maybe last night’s game was the straw that broke the camel’s back. I’m truly looking forward to the December 30 rematch at the Rose Garden. That’s when we’ll see what kind of team the ’08 Blazers are.

"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla

by hurryup09 on Dec 6, 2008 6:59 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I think the "intimidation" factor is over-rated

KP is a classless jerk. Enough said.

Boston won because they were home, because the Blazer’s outside shots were not falling, because that enabled the smash-mouth defensive tactics employed by the Celtics, and because the refs called the game in a way that allowed the Celtics to use those tactics. If the shots had gone down, or if the Blazer’s had understood how to maintain player and ball movement, it would have been different.

Clearly the Blazers need to work on transition defense and they have trouble containing Rondo, as they have trouble with most quick PGs.

There is nothing wrong with the Blazers “toughness” that a good ass-kicking of the Celtics on our home floor will not cure. Whether they will be ready to administer that in a few weeks or in a few years is an open question.

As I said in my original post the old dog dominates the young challenger for a time and then suddenly the domination is over and all the wily tricks of the old dog are not enough to overcome the physical superiority of the young dog. Our guys will have their day.

by upper left corner on Dec 6, 2008 9:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Did your mean KG??

GO
THE TEACHER ......come into my classroom "THE PAINT" for some tutelage.

by Blazer1342 on Dec 7, 2008 3:02 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

There’s swagger, then there’s acting like an idiot and not knowing you are one.

What’s KG going to do next, lift his leg and take a leak.

KG hauled off and hit (elbowed) Blake in the gut last year. It wasn’t in the heat of battle, everyone was just standing around. We’d all be arrested for assault for what he did. Ever since then KG’s on my hate list.

GO
THE TEACHER ......come into my classroom "THE PAINT" for some tutelage.

by Blazer1342 on Dec 7, 2008 3:12 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Your cause & effect are reversed

Last season, the Celtics got in the Blazers’ heads with their bullying and intimidation tactics. So when the Blazers walked into the Boston Garden the other night, they were already beaten. THAT is why, before the Celtic defense even ramped up, the Blazers were tentative, couldn’t hit an open shot, and made mental blunders like not getting back on defense. It got exponentially worse once that Celtic intensity increased. “If the shots had gone down, or if the Blazer’s had understood how to maintain player and ball movement, it would have been different.” Have you ever tried to shoot the ball or move from point to point on the court while being constantly grabbed, elbowed, pushed, nudged, and taunted? To be successful on the court, you must be aggressive, and the Celtics took away the Blazers’ aggression before they even walked onto the court. Then they picked up where they left off last year.

In my own post on this subject (“There’s no single fix for what happened last night”), I used a baseball analogy. If the opposing pitcher throws at your hitters and you don’t retaliate, then you have no shot. You’ve conceded the outside part of the plate to the opposing pitcher and are batting defensively—while their hitters are free to swing away with aggression.

Apparently you view the NBA as a peaceful, orderly world of pretty moves, sweet jumpers, and well-executed back-door plays. In this hoops paradise, any unseemly rough play is controlled by the all-seeing officials under the watchful eye of David Stern. Sounds like a nice place: I’d like to visit it someday! But the real NBA is a bit of a jungle, populated by huge, aggressive athletes—many of them from tough backgrounds—who are always looking for any edge they can exploit. And those referees? They’re midgets in a forest of tall trees, unable to see a great deal of what goes on out there. And when the intensity gets ratcheted up, they struggle to control it.

The reality is that a tough, veteran team like the Celtics can pretty much get away with whatever it wants to—including putting opposing players at serious risk of injury (reference KG’s play on Brandon Roy), and the only ones who can do anything about it are the players themselves.

"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla

by hurryup09 on Dec 7, 2008 12:24 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I get your point, however....

The league isn’t any more physical than in the days when, as Lucas says “You got fined $50 bucks for smashing somebody in the face.”

I do think some of it has to do with how the refs call the game. Bavetta is known for good home cookin’.

Dropping a few Js can have an amazing effect on keeping a defense honest. In addition, eventually the Blazer’s can expect to have a new and hopefully improved Martell back in the lineup which will help keep Pierce from sagging off of Batum.

My point is that the whole “be tough” thing is overrated. “Play better” and you won’t have to smack anybody around.

Boston is very good, and they certainly play tough. Our guys are getting good and they have been remarkably poised considering their relative immaturity and lack of experience.

by upper left corner on Dec 7, 2008 5:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, I certainly agree with your first and final paragraphs

I would never argue that the NBA has gotten more physical. In fact, it’s clearly gotten less so; Stern’s efforts at cleaning up the rough stuff haven’t been entirely unsuccessful. But the players are just as big as ever, and they’re even faster and more explosive on average. You may see fewer “hard fouls” and CERTAINLY fewer punches thrown than back in the day. But the guys are as competitive—and nasty—as ever, and they find a way to gain an edge thru intimidation—just like always. In fact, things are actually worse in at least one sense; you can’t nip things in the bud the way Luke used to.

Re/ your last paragraph, yes the Blazers are mature beyond their years—thanks in large part to Brandon Roy. I LOVE the way he held his tongue following the Celtics loss at first, then told his teammates that the bottom line was to go get a win in Toronto. That was very impressive indeed—as was tonight’s win.

But speaking of tonight’s game, I might point out that the pivotal play—not just in my view, but according to Barrett and Rice as well—was a “toughness” play. Remember? The Raptors were having their way until Greg Oden shoved O’Neal under the basket to get an offensive rebound, then threw it down in O’Neal’s face while elbowing Bosh in his. In the aftermath of the stunning play, O’Neal was grabbing his knee in pain and Bosh was holding his forehead and heading to the locker room for stitches. Do you really think that sequence didn’t make the Blazers more confident on the court and the Raptors less so? Of course it did, and confidence is manifested in many ways: including showing poise and hitting your open shots.

A number of posters questioned Oden’s toughness in the wake of the Celtics loss. But I pointed out that Oden had looked plenty physical vs Stoudemire in Phoenix and that he never had a chance to respond to the Celtics’ bullying because of his early foul trouble. Tonight was very encouraging in terms of the potential impact of Greg Oden on the Blazers’ image as a “soft” team. If he keeps waving his elbows around like he did tonight, the bullies of the league will decide the Blazers aren’t such an easy target after all.

I fervently hope GO “accidentally” catches Kevin Garnett with one of his elbows on December 30th. A couple stitches won’t hurt KG at all: they might actually improve his looks.

"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla

by hurryup09 on Dec 7, 2008 8:11 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for a thoughtful reply....

I do think we have a somewhat different take on the whole toughness issue. I gave you a bit of “trash talk” in the Dave’s recap thread. Hope you don’t take it personally, it wasn’t intended that way.

I know that a lot of what you are saying has merit. I just get so tired of the sort of artificial machismo that seems to pervade the sports fan world. Listen to Jim Rome’s radio show sometime and you will get a full dose of the mindset that bothers me.

Nothing strikes me as dumber than a bunch of middle-aged, beer-bellied fans trying to out-tough each other from their Barcaloungers. I’m not saying you fit that description, I am just trying to explain what rubs me the wrong way about all the tough talk.

I enjoy your posts and look forward to the discussion and occasional verbal joust in the future. Go Blazers.

by upper left corner on Dec 8, 2008 4:12 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes ULC it was predictable

and you did a good job predicting it.

But for we fans, hope springs eternal.

And you don’t know if this is going to be the time the Blazers win in Boston, or if it’s going to be the time that Bayless gets some nice minutes, because we got our bottoms spanked by a team that plays great defense and has some great scorers too.

Bayless’s minutes – the silver lining to a stormy freakin’ game. – Elgin

He who life can no longer surprise raises his eyes, beholds a planet unknown. - Peter Gabriel

by 22baylor on Dec 7, 2008 2:14 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Hey

The Blazers were up 36 to 35 with 4 minutes to go in the 2nd. Then Boston scored the next 21 points. We lost by 15. Which means after the 21 point run we outscored them by 6. Yeah, I know, that’s way over-simplified. But the point is, when the Blazers learn how to quit choking in the big games, i.e. L*kers, Boston, they’ll be in games like this at the end.

You could see it happening (the big choke) as plain as day – or am I alone on this thought. There was one very weird exchange where Blake gave the ball to Roy, it was like, "here, you take it, I don’t know what to do with it".

There’s along way to go, but there were some good things to take away from this game. How about a 2nd unit comeback…did Bayless earn some minutes??

GO
THE TEACHER ......come into my classroom "THE PAINT" for some tutelage.

by Blazer1342 on Dec 7, 2008 2:51 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Play Me or Trade Me.

Experience and talent count. But downstream the fact is that the fat lady always sings and the older team like Boston now is has to recalibrate and rebuild. And as they start to slide, the Blazers will continue to improve.

As far as Bayless, I suspect that with Webster coming back, that it will be Diogu who is moved off the travelling squad of 12. Right now, Mac is doing what the good coaches who have the luxury of a deeper bench always do – and that is he’s bringing Bayless along slowly.

Bayless got minutes in this game because Blake and Sergio were not playing all that well. Downstream, we all know the obvious, which is the Blazers will eventually have to make the decision as to what to do with the minutes they have at PG. The bottom line is that Blake is the vet, and Sergio and Bayless are slated for the same spot. One of them is not going to get the minutes they want. And one will likely be moved at some point, simply because both could likely play on the second squad of other teams – and get more minutes.

If Mac starts using Bayless more, then you can take it to the bank that Sergio will be on his way out. He’s put the play me or trade me out there – and that doesn’t leave the Blazers any option – other than to do just that.

Right now, he’s a better assist man. But I suspect there’ll be a point where the Blazers decide to accept the rookie mistakes that a Bayless will make (much as they’ve done with Batum and Oden), in order to make the team better downstream.

by Eben Calder on Dec 7, 2008 7:17 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

What to do at PG seems like the BIG question for the team.

None of the team’s three PGs has a complete game, at this point:

Blake can’t score off the dribble or create his own shot;

Sergio can’t score off the dribble and is a marginal shooter;

JBay does not yet know how to distribute;

All three have defensive issues, although I think JBay has the most potential.

You make it clear, that you think Blake is the starter and the competition for minutes is between Sergio and JBay. On most levels, this seems to make sense. However, it seems at least plausible that JBay might be able to play some minutes with the starting unit while Sergio remains the best fit for the second unit. We have all discussed the fact that Roy’s ability to distribute could help compensate for JBay’s lack of demonstrated skill in this area.

I would love to see a starting five of JBay, Roy, Webster, LA, and Oden: this would give the starting unit five legitimate scoring threats and would make it more difficult for opponents to sag as they are doing off of Batum. Opponents would have to back off of JBay because of his quickness to the rim. Webster would help spread the floor and would be available for inside out passes. His presence would help compensate for the loss of Blake’s catch and shoot skills.

This would leave a second unit of Sergio, Rudy, Batum, Outlaw and Pryz. This group should be able to run. Blake is not good at pushing the pace and he doesn’t have the connection to Rudy.

Do you think this approach makes sense? If so, how do we get from where we are to where I am proposing? JBay is going to make a lot of mistakes at both ends and we would probably loose a few games in the short run without Blake’s steady hand on the tiller, but by next season, I think we would be in a better place with a more balanced roster.

To me, the alternatives are:

1) Muddle through with Blake as a starter and Sergio as the back-up: which means, I think, that we will consistently struggle against teams with quick PGs, and have trouble with teams that are very good at pressuring the ball. Given KP’s track record as an evaluator of talent, I find it hard to believe that the would have gone to so much effort to land Bayless if they did not think he could contribute. We got Batum at #25 and the guy is playing a productive role as a fill-in starter. Are we supposed to believe that Bayless who many thought was a top six is not ready to contribute?

2) Try Sergio with the first unit: to me Sergio is just not ready either defensively or as a scoring threat. He is improving in both areas, and may someday get there, but he is not ready to be a starting point on a top level team. Teams would sag off of him and be free to double down in the post or on the perimeter with Roy;

3) Leave Blake with the starters and move JBay into the second unit: I agree this would most likely force a trade of Sergio. It is possible that this has been KP’s plan all along. He may be playing Sergio in order to increase his trade value. If they think JBay is the solution long term, I would expect that a trade would be coming fairly soon. They would not want to leave JBay buried forever. They would want to get started on his development.

4) Trade for a veteran PG.

Do you think this list makes sense? Which option do you think they will pursue?

by upper left corner on Dec 7, 2008 9:29 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

If I had to guess what KPs plan is...

…I would say that either Sergio or Bayless is part of a trade near the deadline this season. Blake will be allowed to walk when his contract is up, unless some other team demands him as part of a trade, either this year or in the summer of 2009.

Whoever is left becomes the backup PG behind a superstar free agent PG that we sign this summer. (Unless we’ve already gotten our superstar PG in the deadline-deal.)

Will he be able to pull this off? Dunno. Depends on who he can get. I think Devin Harris is 100% out of the question at this point, but Calderon may have become more attainable with all the chaos in Toronto. Deron Williams injury concerns might even open the door some on that front.

Write-in Rudy for All-Star 2009!

by Majikj0n on Dec 7, 2008 9:37 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

One more comment....

I just wanted to say that I value your opinion. Of all the posters on this site, and there are a lot of good ones, I find I am consistently impressed with your comments. Thanks for taking the time to comment in this thread.

by upper left corner on Dec 7, 2008 9:32 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I would also observe that I don’t yet see that Sergio had all the skills necessary to be the starting PG – which would then enable the Blazers to move Bayless to the 2nd team and then trade Blake. Maybe I’m missing something – but Sergio – like Jack – appears to have more of a career as a solid backup – than a starter. Unfortunately, of course, Sergio and Bayless are still young. Both need seasoning – but we can’t keep Blake and give them that seasoning if they’re on the same team.

by Eben Calder on Dec 7, 2008 7:20 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

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