Perspective on the season to date

I made (what I thought was) an interesting observation today based on the information at 82games - the Blazers are the only team in the NBA with positive "by position" production from all five positions.  In layman's terms, this means the Blazers are, as an aggregate, outplaying their opponents at each and every spot on the floor.

To put this in perspective, the three teams that are above them on Hollinger's power rankings, the Cavaliers, L*kers, and Celtics, all have one position at which their players are being outplayed, on average, by the opposition.  For the L*kers and Cavaliers, it's at the point guard position (Fisher and Farmar, Williams and Gibson).  For the Celtics, it's at center (Perkins and Davis).

Because Brandon Roy is listed in five man units at the small forward (when in with Fernandez) as well as shooting guard, those two positions are the most productive for the Blazers, with point and power forward being about equal behind them.  The least productive position has been at the center, but at least some of that can be attributed to Oden's getting acclimatized to the league (it would certainly be negative there if Joel weren't having an outstanding season).

Speaking of Brandon, as near as I can figure he's been responsible for producing wins against San Antonio (7 points and lead scorer in 4th quarter, 5-6 FTs), Houston (duh), Minnesota at home (scoring 4 straight points with one minute left and the score tied at 91), Minnesota away (scoring 4 straight and then an assist to Travis with one minute left, when down 82-83), Sacramento at home (scoring 9 of the final 13 points in the last 5 minutes when down 80-84), and Washington (scoring 8 of the final 15 points with 5 minutes left and the score tied at 83).  That's 6 wins the Blazers, most of which they probably don't get without him on the floor.  Record: somewhere between 8-12 and 10-10 without Brandon Roy.

About this, I have two comments: 1) His health is the most critical factor in the Blazer's success the rest of this season (and the fuzzily forseen future).  Not Oden's development, or anything else.  Roy must stay healthy.  I think Fernandez can also be a late game guy (like he was in NY), and Travis has shown the ability to hit big shots late last year, but neither of them can take over a game as Roy has demonstrated, time and again. 2) Anyone who isn't talking about Brandon Roy in the top three or four slots for MVP based on the season so far hasn't been paying attention.  The Blazers are a deep and talented team without Brandon Roy, but he is the engine that makes them go.

(That said, at the moment, based on team performance LeBron James is the clear MVP to my mind.  His on/off is +18.7, and he plays 74% of the Cavalier's minutes.  His off-court is minus three (Brandon's on/off is almost zero).  Put another way - they're being outscored, and are therefore also a .500 team at best when he's not on the court.  Looking at the numbers, the Lakers are still a very good team without Kobe.  The Celtics can have one of their big three have an off night and still win.  With that many minutes, only the Hornet's Chris Paul has a bigger impact on his team's performance (well, there's also Rashard Lewis, interestingly, in terms of on/off - funny how his name never comes up as he's not considered the best player on his own team) and the Hornet's are in a funk, even so, hurting Paul's MVP chances.)

I guess the importance of Roy to the team's success has been on my mind of late not just because of the recend articles by Jason Quick, but also because last year Brandon suffered an injury in the second game against Boston that was another heavy blow on a slumping team.  Sure, people get hurt in the NBA, and it gives an opportunity for others to step up.  But this guy, we need almost every night.