ESPN's NBA Hollinger Playoff Odds 2008-09

by donkeybuddha on Dec 5, 2008 1:22 PM PST

John Hollinger's playoff projections now give our beloved Blazers a 100% chance of making the playoffs, a 79.7% likelihood of winning the Northwest Division, an 18.2% possibility of snagging the #1 seed, a 25.4% chance to win the Western Conference and an 8.7% probability of winning it all.

Hollinger bases his projections on his power rankings which currently has our guys ranked 4th and are based upon various factors such as scoring margin and strength of schedule. He then plays out the season 5,000 times. If the Blazers made the playoffs 2,500 times, then they are projected to make the playoffs 50% of the time.

Apparently, his computer mumbo jumbo is very impressed with our Baby Blazers as they now make the playoffs 4,998 times out of 5,000 and are projected to win 57 games (I got a buddy who made a $100 bet with another buddy before the season that they would win 55 games, so he has gotta be stoked right now after a shaky beginning).

Will the numbers hold up? Who knows since the computers don't know about any potential injury or trade (or do they?), but it is nice for Hollinger's computers to verify what we have been seeing with our own eyes--that the Trail Blazers are already near the cream of the crop in the NBA, simply amazing for the 2nd youngest team. The future is bright and we certainly have a reason to be optimistic. We may be homers, but the computers (that may some day rise up and make us their slaves) are agreeing with us.

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We're a lock...

When do playoff tickets go on sale?

by Bust a Bucket on Dec 5, 2008 1:25 PM PST reply actions

Wait that can't be right

that we got to the play-offs 100% of the time in the 5000 projections, because our worst case scenario (39-43) certainly does not get us into the play-offs, right?

Jaws were hitting the floor as Greg repeatedly attempted to tear the rim off the backboard...

by TheOdenator on Dec 5, 2008 1:28 PM PST reply actions

I think they round to the nearest hundred percent

so since we’re above 50, they round us up to 100.

No, I don’t know how that works that we could be 39-43 and still make it.???

by Bust a Bucket on Dec 5, 2008 1:33 PM PST up reply actions

39 wins making the playoffs certainly isn't likely

but it isn’t impossible. Surely once or twice in 5000 seasons a 39 win team is going to make the playoffs especially with the gap between the top 9 teams and the rest of the Western conference.

by tingeyga on Dec 5, 2008 1:33 PM PST up reply actions

Yea

But that would happen to match up with the few times that the Blazers get 39 wins? It doesn’t seem likely…

Jaws were hitting the floor as Greg repeatedly attempted to tear the rim off the backboard...

by TheOdenator on Dec 5, 2008 1:38 PM PST up reply actions

I looked at the playoff records for all of the post lockout years

and in those 9 years, 3 teams made it into the playoffs with 39 or fewer victories including a 36 win Boston team in 2004. So based on recent history 1 out of every 3 years a team with 39 wins makes the playoffs. But what to me is more interesting is that in those 9 years a 39 team win could have made the playoffs is that in 6 of those same years the 9th place team in the conference had less than 39 wins, so a team was only required to win 39 games to make the playoffs. Granted all of these below .500 teams that did/could have made the playoffs came out of the East. But with the West being comprised mainly of the 9 quality teams and then 6 crappy teams with a couple of key injuries a .500 team could make the playoffs in the Western conference. The odds certainly seem better than 2 out of 5000 for that occurrence.

by tingeyga on Dec 5, 2008 3:04 PM PST up reply actions

The Blazers made the playoffs with 39 wins before

Early 80’s as I recall (Clyde’s rookie year?…maybe)

On drowning my daughter before she becomes a teenager (to my son)-"You know how when you want to drown someone, you first tie something heavy to the their foot?" My Son: "Yeah?" Me:"You're the something heavy"

by 92wastheyear on Dec 5, 2008 3:30 PM PST up reply actions

They have made the playoffs twice with 39 wins or fewer

1988-89 season, 39 wins
1979-80 season (the Breaks of the Game year), 38 wins

You are probably thinking of the 1985-86 season (Ramsey’s last year) when they made the playoffs with 40 wins

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/

by tingeyga on Dec 5, 2008 5:02 PM PST up reply actions

I think it was 88-89

Don’t know why I was thinking it was earlier

by 92wastheyear on Dec 6, 2008 8:54 AM PST up reply actions

This was posted a few days ago I think...

or I just imagining it…but anyhow in the real or imagined post, we made the playoffs in something like 4998 times out of 5000. Not perfect, rounds up to 100% and still accounts for that 39 win season.

The cowards never started
The weak died along the way
Only the strong survived
They were the Trailblazers

by lukeyhere on Dec 5, 2008 1:59 PM PST up reply actions

Yeah I posted it with Hollinger's comments

Here’s a link.

Hollinger explains that, subjectively, he thinks the Blazers are just about as much of a lock as a team could be, due to their amazing depth. They’re less vulnerable to injuries.

Of course, in the West, nobody’s REALLY a lock except LA. One of the next eight teams isn’t going to make the playoffs, and Dallas is kicking it into high gear right now. Utah and San Antonio are currently 8th and 9th in the playoff odds, and they’ve had multiple superstars injured for extended stretches.

Hollinger said during his chat yesterday he thinks the Suns are the most likely team to miss the playoffs out of the top nine. As we’ve seen in two Ls so far, they’re no pushovers.

Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.

by KP Corleone on Dec 5, 2008 2:32 PM PST up reply actions

LA is not a lock for playoffs

A serious Kobe injury could very well derail them. If he had a seson ending injury, they could miss the playoffs all together expecially since they’ve already used up much of their creampuff schedule to date.

by NWfan on Dec 5, 2008 2:46 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

what every Blazer fan dreams of, but never says out loud.

by Bust a Bucket on Dec 5, 2008 2:52 PM PST up reply actions

Yeah Denver is making this a tough one.

They were the “sure fire” 9th spot before the season, but Adios “eh-eye” and they look like they are sticking around.

Houston seems the most likely to slip from injury.
SA and Dallas will battle for the “most likely to slip because they can’t compete” award.
Phoenix seems the most likely to slip from internal meltdown.
I guess the Blazers make the list at “most likely to be playing over their head”, although Denver might be competing for this prize, too.

Dang, I thought last year was a tough conference.

And to think there was preseason talk of GS or the LAC being in the mix somewhere. Not gonna happen!

The cowards never started
The weak died along the way
Only the strong survived
They were the Trailblazers

by lukeyhere on Dec 5, 2008 2:55 PM PST up reply actions

Denver has been very surprising

it’s going to be a tight race for the NW crown.

Part of the talk of GS being in the mix came from Hollinger who said they were a 40 win team, maybe .500. As in, he had them only 2 wins behind where he predicted the Blazers even after Monta Ellis was injured. That one really got to me.

"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"

by Magnum on Dec 5, 2008 3:31 PM PST up reply actions

in Hollinger's

Inside article, he said that the 100% means they made the playoffs in 4,998 of the 5,000 simulations.

by usmcr3049 on Dec 5, 2008 2:37 PM PST up reply actions

Thanks--I updated my post accordingly

by donkeybuddha on Dec 5, 2008 3:51 PM PST up reply actions

Hollinger's computer isn't the only computer that likes the Blazers

Coolstandings calculations put the Blazers chances of making the playoffs at 99%.
Also the Blazers they their calculations are looking at an average win total of just under the 55 wins your buddy needs to win his bet.

http://www.coolstandings.com/basketball/basketball_standings.asp?sn=2008

by tingeyga on Dec 5, 2008 1:36 PM PST reply actions

Wow that is a ballsy bet.

I bet a L*ker fan lunch (with drinks!!! MANY OF THEM HAHAHAHA!) that the Blazers would win more than 49 games. 50+ = free lunch for me, 48 or less = lunch for him, 49 is a push.

I’m sitting pretty right now.

"I like blocks," Fernandez said.

by joelor on Dec 5, 2008 1:40 PM PST up reply actions

Just imagine if the PTB go 'best case'

72 wins, baby.

Do I think that’s likely? No. But it is a statistical possibility.

by DonkeyShins on Dec 5, 2008 2:52 PM PST up reply actions

Ahh yes, I remember you talking about this bet when it was made.

I recall thinking that the over/under was almost perfect – I remember thinking 48 would have been absolutely perfect. Well, don’t I look silly :)

The Dude abides

by noaher on Dec 5, 2008 3:02 PM PST up reply actions

Yes, but in the best possible way.

"I like blocks," Fernandez said.

by joelor on Dec 5, 2008 3:18 PM PST up reply actions

i made a bet pre season for a second round series in the playoffs

the next day, roys surgery was anounced, he loled, so now everytime i see him i give him the score of our last game, and our current record, or any kind of update thats on my mind.

Travis please save us

by Sabonis4Ever on Dec 2, 2008 5:14 PM PST Gameday Open Thread: Blazers vs. Knicks on Blazer's Edge

by maid tu rek on Dec 5, 2008 4:18 PM PST up reply actions

Collstandings Computer is an old gateway in some dudes basement :O

I want Rajon Rondo

by TheGreatDane17 on Dec 5, 2008 2:42 PM PST up reply actions

I’ve been tracking this in my own spreadsheet for the last week. I’m going to watch it over the rest of the season. It’s really interesting to watch the numbers. three days ago on the 3rd we had a 99.9% chance of the playoffs (4995/5000) but had 11.8% chance of being the champs (590/5000)!

I want to see how as the season progresses the chance of winning the Division, #1, Finals appearance and Champs shakes down statistically. As other teams win and lose and our own record goes through it’s ebb and flow. interesting stuff.

Incidently, for the last three days, we’ve been averaging about 25% chance of making the finals THIS YEAR. that’s every 1 in 4 simulations. Not to shabby.

by rx2web on Dec 5, 2008 1:46 PM PST reply actions

Wow!

So, that means we’re in line to play what, the Fiesta Bowl?

Jerryd Bayless has two emotions: Kill and Win.

"I want to put points on your face."
-Rudy to Pau Gasol

NorrisHopper30: "someone injure pubert jones"

by rockingharder on Dec 5, 2008 2:26 PM PST reply actions 1 recs

BCS Champs all the way, baby?

I wonder who we match up better against, Alabama or Florida?

by donkeybuddha on Dec 5, 2008 3:52 PM PST up reply actions

Greg owns Florida

Do you like asparagus?

by jscot on Dec 6, 2008 3:24 AM PST up reply actions

computers don't factor in

the injuries to Western Conference competitors like the spurs, or division rivals the Jazz. Additionally Denver’s projected record will be skewed by their trade, and they are another division rival. That said, all of those teams are projected to be in the playoffs, so that will not factor into playoff spots, just seeding. I think that it might be hard for the Blazers to get one of the top spots due to the seeding by division winners. On the other hand, the Blazers are playing much better than most would have projected. In their favor, I don’t believe the Hollinger’s computers factor in road games, or back to backs. Also I get the feeling that the Blazers are just scratching the surface, with Oden getting acclimated and the team learning to play with each other. Home court advantage in the playoffs should certainly be a goal, but there is a lot of basketball left to be played.

by TFan on Dec 5, 2008 2:30 PM PST reply actions

they do factor in road games

but not back to backs

by kickbrass on Dec 7, 2008 9:13 AM PST up reply actions

Looks like we made the big time!

Time to coast the rest of the way!

With all the injuries players get these days, I think we should just stick to simulating the season and deciding the best teams that way and stop having these amazing young men get hurt and brutalized for seasons at a time.

It’s barbaric.

VIVA LA COMPUTERO!

Morty

by Mortimer on Dec 5, 2008 2:47 PM PST reply actions