What 50+ Wins Looks Like
by upper left corner on Dec 4, 2008 8:30 AM PST
Email
PrintWinning fifty plus games has long been the standard for being a "good" team with a legitimate chance do some damage in the playoffs. But what does a fifty win season look like? What do the Blazers need to do to get to this level?
This next part is going to sound a bit weird, but stay with me. I have been thinking about these questions from the point of view of probabilities. Think of one of those machines with a bunch of ping pong balls and a pattern of nails between two sheets of Plexiglas that demonstrate a random distribution bell curve (there is one at OMSI). If you think about it, ping pong balls are a lot like basketballs, and rims are a bit like nails. In other words over the course of the season, the teams shooting percentage in any given game will fall on a fairly standard bell curve. Some nights will be better than others. Some nights will be worse. A lot of factors effect performance in a single game; the two most obvious ones are: 1) the quality of the opponent, and 2) whether the game is at home or on the road.
The same can be said in reverse: the shooting performance of opposing teams will also fall into a bell curve affected by the quality of our defense and whether the game is at home or on the road.
Getting to 50+ wins is a matter of applied statistics. To discuss how, lets break the season down into four parts and then consider each part separately: 1) home games against teams below .500; 2) home games against teams over .500; 3) road games against teams below .500; and finally, 4) road games against teams over .500. Each of these four blocks includes 20 games with 2 extra games thrown in.
1) Home games against sub .500 teams: Even bad teams usually win the majority of their home games against other bad teams. The first step in getting to fifty wins is to reduce the number of these games that "get away." Good teams do this in a number of ways. They start blowing teams out (Chicago). Even when they play poorly or their opponents shoot well they tend to find a way to win (Minnesota, Sacramento). Usually they do this by being able to crank up their defensive pressure in games where they are shooting poorly. They also have the ability to execute better when the game is on the line (Brandon).
The goal here is to reduce the number of home losses to bad teams as much as possible. Lets say 17-3 in this group.
2) Home games against over .500 teams: A sure sign that a young team is getting better is when they start winning against quality opponents on their home floor. At first it starts with winning close games (San Antonio, Houston), over time it really becomes apparent when you start getting solid wins and blowouts against good teams (Miami, NO).
The goal here is to win a bit better than 2 out of 3. Lets say 14-6. Give the home team the extra home game and that gives us a total home record of 32-9. Obviously the Blazers with an undefeated record at home are ahead of schedule on this side.
3) Road games against sub .500 teams: Every team will win a few games on the road against bad teams. When you are shooting well and the home team is stinking the place up it looks easy (Sacramento). The sign that a team is starting to be good is when you "win ugly." This is exactly what the Blazers did against the Knicks on Tuesday. We looked like crap for most of three quarters and still pulled out the W. We did the same thing earlier in the year at Minnesota.
Unless a team is really dominant, it is going to drop a handful of games in this category. Sometimes the home team gets hot, sometimes your legs feel like lead, sometimes the shots just won't go in, sometimes you just can't get up to play another sub .500 team. The goal here is to win a solid majority of these games. Lets say 60%, or 12-8.
So far the Blazers have 4 wins (MN, Sac, NY, Wash) and 1 loss (GS) in this group.
4) Road games against above .500 teams: these are the games that fans get all excited about and then get all depressed over when their team looses, which is most of the time. The truth is that you are not going to win a majority of your road games against quality teams, even if you are very, very good. Even a 60 win team is going to loose 22 games. Most of those will come on the road against good teams. This is why home court advantage is so important in the playoffs. I don't know the exact figures (I hope somebody will look them up and post them in the comments), but I would estimate that the home team wins at least 75% of all playoff games. The same must be true in the regular season. It is probably a bit lower for teams just above .500 than for the truly elite teams.
Let's say that the win percentage for these games is 35%. That would give us a record of 7-13 for these 20 games. Chalking up the extra road game as a loss, translates to a total road record of 19-22
So far the Blazers have 3 wins against these teams (Miami, Orlando, Detroit) and 5 losses (LA, Phoenix 2, Utah, NO). This is above pace.
SUMMARY: This projection leads to a record of 51-31. So far the Blazers are ahead of schedule in all four areas. Given the difficulty of the schedule that is truly impressive. Barring injuries and fatigue, made less likely by the Blazer's depth, the Blazers are clearly on schedule to exceed 50 wins.
This analysis should also temper expectations about tomorrow night. The Blazers chances of winning on the road, against the defending Champs, on the fourth game of a road trip, can't be more than 1-10. Don't despair if our guys loose or even if we get blown out. It doesn't mean that we aren't good and it doesn't mean that we won't soon be among the elite.
Personally, I am waiting to see how we do on our home floor against Boston, Cleveland, and the L@kers. I think we have to beat these teams at home before we can expect to beat them on the road. Success at home will breed confidence
I have had fun going through this little exercise in applied probability. I hope you guys find it interesting.
31 comments
|
8 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Interesting take...
51-31 is a pretty solid projection….I had them at 50 (and will be a bit under if they keep up at this pace).
I will have to disagree with the “don’t get depressed over blowout road losses to good teams” mentality. If the Blazers want to be a presence in the playoffs, or simply make the playoffs, they need to be competitive away from home against playoff teams.
I think as a young team jelling together will be a big key for them….and should make them even stronger as the season goes on. Batum, Oden, and Fernandez are rookies playing a ton of minutes, and because of that the fluidity on the court isn’t perfect yet. Roy and LMA will develop better chemistry with them. So that there might add an extra win or two in itself, but until they give the big boys fits at their home court, we can’t expect too much from these kids in the playoffs.
If I'm not workin', sleepin', eatin', drinkin', depletin', or sweatin'....I'm reading BlazersEdge. Well....actually only two of those are true.
My point is that beating elite teams on the road is not a 50-50 proposition.....
Even 60 win teams are going to loose over 50% of their road games. I would say that the sequence is usually 1) learn how to beat them at home; 2) learn how to be competitive on the road; 3) learn how to occasionally beat them soundly out home; 4) learn how to steal an occasional game on the road.
by upper left corner on Dec 4, 2008 9:19 AM PST up reply actions
I agree that beating good teams on the road isn't necessarily a 50-50
proposition, but unless you mean 60 win teams are going to lose 50% of their road games AGAINST ELITE TEAMS, then something is wrong. I dare you to find a single 60 win team that has won less than 50% of its road games overall.
Even if you go undefeated at home for the year (never been done, as far as I know), you still need to win 19 of your 41 road games to hit 60. So you’d have to lose fewer than 2 home games to be able to win 60 and have a less than .500 record overall on the road.
Good post overall, though. I get down after road blowouts, just because of frustration, but it’s hard to stay down with this blazer team.
By the way, this is not a projection
I think the Blazers will win more than 51. My point is that this is what a 50 win season looks like. The fact that the Blazers are ahead in all four areas leads me to believe that barring injuries, they will exceed 51.
by upper left corner on Dec 4, 2008 9:22 AM PST up reply actions
Good post, thanks.
I think the breakdown by category was something Dave talked about preseason, but I like your thoughts about the statistics bell curve. Good or great teams of course will have better average statistics, but I would also guess they keep those stats a bit tighter under the curve, too. The middlin’ teams, perhaps the Blazers of last year and this year to some extent will have more games outside of their norm…either stinking it up really bad or over achieving on a particular game. I wonder if the really bad teams tighten up the curve on the low end (bad stats), or their curve gets even wider but the peak just slides down the scale that much further.
Surely there are some stats magicians out there that could represent something like this with graphs and pretty colors that us dummies could understand.
So if we were to compare teams with as few as stats possible to project which achieved more wins, what would those stats be? FG% and opponents FG% are probably tops as you say. What next? FG attempts? FT attempts? TO’s? What is the minimum number of stats with which you could predict a winner…or predict W/L%?
That reminds me of a bad joke:
Me: I can tell you the score of any game before it starts.
You: Oh yeah? How ’bout the Blazers/Celtics this Friday, smart guy?
Me: Zero to zero.
The cowards never started
The weak died along the way
Only the strong survived
They were the Trailblazers
Number of attempts, meaning rebounding and turnovers are very important.....
The Blazer’s improvement on both fronts are very key. If you have more attempts then you can win on nights when you shoot a lower percentage.
Thanks for the nice response.
by upper left corner on Dec 4, 2008 9:27 AM PST reply actions
Nice
I like this kind of analysis. I often view a season this way, and that’s why I’m really cranked up about what we’ve done so far. Using your percentages….
Bad teams at home (85). Good teams at home (70). Bad teams on the road (60). Good teams on the road (35).
Category 1 (losing teams at home). So far, we’ve only had 3 of these, and won them all. To get your target, we need to go 14-3 in the remaining home games. That is not a hard ask against losing teams. We should be able to at least match here.
Category 2 (winning teams at home). We are 4-0. To reach your target, we need to go 10-6 from here in. We have to play ball to do it, but we certainly are capable of that. We should be able to exceed this by a game or two.
Category 3 (losing teams on the road). As you said, we are 4-1. This is superb. To hit your target, we only need to go 8-7 the rest of the way. We haven’t yet played OKC, Memphis, or the Clippers. We still have some games at some of the Eastern bottom feeders. We should be able to beat the target by a game or two. To exceed by two games would require us to go 10-5 on these games the rest of the year. That would be very good.
Category 4 (winning teams on the road). This is what has me really pleased. As you said, we are 3-5 in these games. As you said, even the best teams don’t usually win most of these games. We’re staying competitive, and actually our wins were solid, not flukes. Right now, we’re getting 37.5% of these. To hit your target, we need to go 4-8 the rest of the year, 33%. We may not beat your target there, but we are ahead of it.
I predicted 55 wins. I figured we needed 18 wins (90) in category 1, 14 (70) in category 2, 14 (70) in category 3, 8 (40) in category 4, and one of the two “extras”, for a total of 33 home and 22 away. So far, we’re ahead of schedule everywhere except category 4, and that one is just rounding.
People look at our road record of 7-6 and think that it extrapolates to 22 wins. It doesn’t. Right now, we are on schedule to win 7.5 of 20 road games against winning teams, and 16 of 20 against losing teams, which extrapolates (given the extra game) to 24 road wins. That means our road record is elite — a team that wins 24 on the road will probably be in the 55-60 win range.
And people talk about the close games we’ve “stolen”, but those were home games. Our road wins have been solid — the closest was by 5 at Minnesota, followed by 6 at Washington. Our road performance is incredible so far — long may it continue. We’re beating the teams we should have a shot at, and winning some of the tough games.
Thanks for the post.
Do you like asparagus?
by jscot on Dec 4, 2008 9:51 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Did it again, must be the cold medicine......
My post below was meant to be a response to your post. Too many decongestants, and too little sleep……..
by upper left corner on Dec 4, 2008 10:13 AM PST up reply actions
You may end up being the Swammi for picking 55 wins
Long way to go, but your prediction is looking better and better.
I'm not the only one who did it
walkoff predicted that, too. So did someone else, I think it was usmcr whatever his name is.
Do you like asparagus?
i was hoping to find the further breakdown
thanks for the extra work
Travis please save us
by Sabonis4Ever on Dec 2, 2008 5:14 PM PST Gameday Open Thread: Blazers vs. Knicks on Blazer's Edge
Update after Boston
In category 4, we are now 3-6, 33%, on pace to get 7 and lose 13, exactly on target for the 51-win breakdown. To hit it in this category, we need to go 4-7 the rest of the way on these games.
Toronto is a tricky one, because they have a losing record but are a better team than that. They are also in transition with a new coach, and their first home game with him after two consecutive horrible losses on the road. In any event, this one goes in category 3, and would be a great one to get, but even with a loss we will be well ahead of schedule in this category. A win means we only need to go .500 against losing teams on the road the rest of the way to hit target.
For my target, we’ve lagged slightly on category 4 (on pace for 7 wins, I was hoping for 8) and a loss in Toronto would put us behind on category 3 (on pace for 13, I was hoping for 14). We’re still ahead in the other two categories, though, so even after a loss in Toronto we’ll still be in decent shape for 55. A win would keep us in the 57-58 range, probably, perhaps even a little better.
Do you like asparagus?
Update after Toronto
Cat 1 (3-0). ULC’s target we need to go 14-3, jscot’s target 15-2.
Cat 2 (4-0). We both targeted 14 wins, we need to go 10-6.
Cat 3 (5-1). Toronto will likely have a winning season, but for now, they are in this category. Your target we need to go 7-7 the rest of the way, my target we need 9-5. Either way, we’re well ahead of schedule — at our current pace, we’ll go 18-3 or 17-4 against losing teams on the road.
Cat 4 (3-6). You targeted 7 wins, I targeted 8. We need to go 4-7 on these to hit your target, 5-6 to hit mine.
This is somewhat subject to change because if Toronto gets their game together (and I think they’ve got too much talent to not get above .500), then this was one of those valuable category 4 wins.
Either way, we’re in great shape.
Do you like asparagus?
Thanks for keeping this thread alive
Bottom line seems to be that we are exceeding pace for 50 and your 55 is looking more and more reasonable and you are looking more and more prescient. Congrats.
Perhaps we can update this approach from time to time throughout the season. During the next few weeks we are going to get a lot of those Cat 2 games.
by upper left corner on Dec 7, 2008 1:57 PM PST up reply actions
Thanks for your response...
I agree with your analysis. I was not predicting 50. I was trying to illustrate what 50 might look like. Obviously there are a lot of combinations that add up to 50+.
The amazing thing is that we are ahead in all four areas. Barring injuries, I think your 55 is about right.
On the down side: injuries are always a threat; fatigue is always a factor with rookies; most teams get funky for some stretch in the season and forget how to win for a few games.
On the up side: young players continuing to improve and learning to play together; depth, depth, depth because we have such a deep bench we are less likely to suffer from fatigue, and we are less susceptible to slumps by individuals players effecting team play.
Don’t worry, Be happy …….
by upper left corner on Dec 4, 2008 10:09 AM PST reply actions
Re: barring injuries
We’ve actually been through a couple, already. Not that I want any, but this team is deep enough to sustain some and still succeed. We can’t afford to haveRoy go down for a long period, and it would hurt if LMA, Greg, or Joel were out for long. The 4-5 game type injury might not be too bad, even if it were Brandon.
Do you like asparagus?
Agreed. Depth, depth depth.
This is why I get freaked out when posters want to trade away a handful of our young guns for an aging superstar. This is not to say that some trades may make sense, but we need to take our time evaluating our young guys and make sure that we don’t pay too much if we make a trade for RLEC + players.
Chemistry, depth, and style of play are as important as just stockpiling stars.
by upper left corner on Dec 4, 2008 10:30 AM PST reply actions
I'm skeptical of their ability to keep it up...
… but to this point in the season, its hard to dispute that Portland has played like a 55 win team.
Boomshakalaka
Given injuries, integrating rookies, and great depth, doesn't it seem more likely that they will actually improve rather than regress?
I agree that they have been shooting the long ball well and that may go down over time. On the other hand, part of the reason they are shooting better is Rudy, Sergio’s improvement, and better shot selection because of GO’s presence in the paint. Furthermore, team defense is continuing to improve and they are getting used to the new rotation and playing with each other.
by upper left corner on Dec 4, 2008 12:11 PM PST up reply actions
That was sort of the bait from last year though...
hey we won 13 straight, we’re cruising along over .500, plus we’re just going to keep getting better and better as we head for the playoffs. Ooops.
So as good as we’re playing now, I’m trying not to get too caught up in it. Making the playoffs is still the goal, first seed or eighth. Any less than the 8th spot and I’m dissapointed. Better than 8th is gravy.
The cowards never started
The weak died along the way
Only the strong survived
They were the Trailblazers
I think we are winning in a very different way.
The “streak” was based in large part on great outside shooting. When James Jones got hurt and the rest of the team came back to earth, we stopped winning at the same rate. This year we are rebounding, reducing turnovers, and playing better team defense. Those are all more reproducible than just shooting. We are still shooting better, but I think that is based on better ball movement and having more of a threat in the middle which tends to encourage teams to leave shooters open.
by upper left corner on Dec 4, 2008 4:57 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
fantastik analasys
for me it was a fresh perspective and a deaper analysys. very much enjoyed jscots adendum, and your conve with him. im a little more conservative, my thoughts wer along 49 wins, but i like our pace
Travis please save us
by Sabonis4Ever on Dec 2, 2008 5:14 PM PST Gameday Open Thread: Blazers vs. Knicks on Blazer's Edge
My point was less about predicting a specific win total and,,,,,,,,,
…… more about trying to look at how the team would need to perform to get to fifty wins. I love our pace, but am greedy enough to hope for continued improvement from several individuals (Oden, Batum, Rudy, LMA), very anxious to see Martell, and hoping our team defense still has room for improvement. My other point was to try to lower expectations a bit about winning on the road against elite teams. It simply doesn’t happen that often.
by upper left corner on Dec 5, 2008 6:17 AM PST up reply actions
AND i think your points wer excelent
i thought you mentioned in the convo part that you thought they would do even beter then 50 wins, so i was addressing that, im just not good at putting thoughts to writing, sorry about that. its never occord to me to look at the skedual in that fasion befor, and i think its a really usefull way to du so. a great measuring stick so to speak. i kinda want to take one of last years 50 win teams and look at there skedual, and see how it matches up. obviously not perfectly, but i suspest it would be really close. also i kant help but think that there might be more or less the just half in the over or under 500 mark. or is it mathamatikly impossible to have to play more over 500 teams at home then under? you get 2, 3, and 4 games with teams depending…. is the scedual allways going to be perfectaly balenced between the over and unders? and can there be more overs then unders? or will there allways be a perfectlay even balence of winning and losing teams? ill have to make the time to look
Travis please save us
by Sabonis4Ever on Dec 2, 2008 5:14 PM PST Gameday Open Thread: Blazers vs. Knicks on Blazer's Edge
Last year
there were more Western teams with winning records (9) than losing records (5). Since we play more games against the West than against the East, we definitely had more games against winning teams than losing teams.
There is no guarantee that there will be the same number of winning teams as losing teams. You could have a lot of teams winning 45 games balanced out by one team in OKC losing 70.
Do you like asparagus?
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recommended FanShots
Recent FanShots
In Association With
Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sport
- Days of NBA Lives: Wherein Roy Hibbert tap-dances to Maine
- Grizzlies Valentine’s Day cards are the key to love
- Kevin Love would like the NBA to take the MLB’s approach on All-Star games
- Kobe Bryant fires a few hilarious salvos at Jeremy Lin
- Brandon Jennings states the obvious regarding his 2014 free agency, everyone goes nuts
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
