FanPost

2010 Free Agency - Worth sacrificing for, or not?

After doing some number crunching today (spare time), I found it possible for the first time, that we might have enough money to sign a max contract FA during the summer of 2010. Before, I thought it was an impossibility, given the fact we have to sign both LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy to max deals. Today I did the math, and found out with a single basic trade (Przybilla for a $6 million expring contract), we could be in position to get one of the 2010 max contract FA's. This situation also assumes, we don't add anyone else to our salary for the 2010 season. We could also sign our 1st round picks for both the 2009 and 2010 drafts (so long as we're in the 20's) and still have room for the 2010 FA.

Here are the players we'd have around for 2010 and their contracts (In Millions)

  1. Brandon Roy (13.7)
  2. LaMarcus Aldridge (13.7)
  3. Greg Oden (6.8)
  4. Martell Webster (4.8)
  5. Jerryd Bayless (2.3)
  6. Rudy Fernandez (1.2)
  7. Nicolas Batum (1.2)
  8. 2009 1st Round Pick (1.2)
  9. 2010 1st Round Pick (1.2)

That puts us at $46.7 million for the 2010 season and $18.3 million under that years expected salary cap. Just for reference, each player in that stellar draft class of 2003 can make up to $16.4 Million for the 2010 season (gradually increasing from there). The issue here isn't so much the player to get (obviously LeBron), but its if you want to sacrifice all of our leftovers for the chance to get one of the 2010 FA's. Just for arguments sake, lets say we go the other FA route, and decide to pull the trigger on Hedo Turkoglu this summer (after letting RLEC run out). If we went this route, we'd be able to keep Steve Blake, Travis Outlaw and Channing Frye (again just for arguments sake we give him what we gave Martell). We'd have one of, if not the deepest teams in NBA history.

PG: Blake / Sergio / Bayless
SG: Roy / Rudy
SF: Hedo / Martell / Batum
PF: Aldridge / Outlaw / Frye
C: Oden / Przy

We could have these players from that point going forward, making all sorts of trades and draft picks, but we probably wouldn't be able to make another signing above the Mid-Level Exception for the next 10 years. Everything would be static except for the draft picks and trades (KP is proven, I have no qualms with this).

In the other scenario, our 2009 summer would be much the same, only instead of being able to sign Hedo for the multiple year big dollar contract he'd want, we'd probably have to settle on a guy willing to come here for $15-20 million dollars for 1 year as a hired gun (old dude that wants a Championship). In this scenario, again, we could pick up the options of Blake and Outlaw (Frye wouldn't sign a 1 year deal) and still have the leftover capital for that hired gun (Allen Iverson, Jason Kidd, Lamar Odom, Mike Bibby). In this scenario lets run with Kidd (oldest specialty player at supposed position of need). In this scenario we seem just about as likely to win a Championship.

PG: Kidd / Blake / Sergio
SG: Roy / Rudy / Bayless
SF: Martell / Batum
PF: Aldridge / Outlaw
C: Oden / Przy

The difference of course, comes in how we proceed after that important summer of 2010. In one scenario we have Hedo, Blake, Outlaw, Przybilla, Sergio and Frye and in the other scenario we have one of the big names (LeBron, Wade, Amare, Bosh, Joe Johnson, Nowitzki). The question then becomes how much depth is really needed in this league. Even if we go the 2010 route, and pick up Joe Johnson for instance, we'd still have our 2009 and 2010 draft picks, as well as possibly bringing over Koponen and Freeland for the tail end of the bench. So when all is said and done, if KP doesn't solve our problems through a trade this season, he's got two distinct options. I'll list what our A and B teams will look like, and I'd like to get some feedback on which team you'd all prefer going forward with in the long run.

Team A - 2009 Long Term FA w/ all current Blazers included (Players age in 2010)

PG: Blake (30) / Sergio (24) / Bayless (22) / Koponen (22)
SG: Roy (26) / Rudy (25)
SF: Martell (24) / Batum (21)
PF: Aldridge (25) / Outlaw (26) / Freeland (23)
C: Oden (22) / Przy (31)

Additions:

1 Long Term 2009 Free Agent:  (Hedo Turkoglu (31), Lamar Odom (31), Shawn Marion (32), Ben Gordon (27))
2 1st Round Draft Picks (2009, 2010), 6 Total 2nd Rounders

Team B - 2010 Superstar FA w/o additional Blazers included

PG: Bayless (22) / Koponen (22)
SG: Roy (26) / Rudy (25)
SF: Martell (24) / Batum (21)
PF: Aldridge (25)  / Freeland (23)
C: Oden (22)

Additions:

1 Long Term 2010 Free Agent: (LeBron (25), Wade (28), Amare (28), Bosh (26), Joe Johnson (29), Nowitzki (32))
2 1st Round Draft Picks (2009, 2010), 6 Total 2nd Rounders

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