Now That Mitchell's been fired and Toronto is in mini disarray: Ridiculous Bosh Trade Post Time
by Royster on Dec 3, 2008 4:39 PM PST
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PrintYou knew this was coming, just thought I'd jump the gun on it. Let me preface it by saying a couple things. First off, the feasibility of this trade rests entirely on two assumptions: 1. Toronto continues to implode this year and misses the playoffs, causing Bosh to publicly say something about being traded or leaving in 2010, and 2. LMA manages to explode over the rest of the season, getting his number up to something like 20 and 8 (so he'll be more valuable to Toronto). Anything less than those two happening would make this pretty one-sided.
And now, the trade:
Portland gives:
LMA
Trout
Rudy
Pryzbila
Portland Receives:
Chris Bosh (obviously)
This trade would works under the salaries right now, but really only makes sense in the offseason. If need be, we could take back Kapono's salary as well with the cap space from RLEC and let Toronto cut off an overpaid guy.
So why would Toronto do it? If they miss the playoffs with this roster and there's a decent chance that Bosh could leave for nothing, they'd at least owe it to their fanbase to get something out of him. The dude is a top 2 or 3 PF in the league right now and a guaranteed 20/10. We saw how Orlando immediately went from title contender to mediocre after losing Shaq in FA, so this would allow them to at least get something out of him.
As far as the players concerned, if LMA does get his averages up there, he'd probably be considered just about at Al Jefferson's level of value when you factor in that he plays defense once in a while. He has a similar game to Bosh's, so Colangelo would probably be able to fit him into the system and he's a little younger and a whole lot cheaper after Bosh receives his next max extension.
Rudy would fill a gaping hole at SG for them (Parker's okay, but come on), plus he would probably be a little more valuable to them than most other teams since Calderon is at the point, kinda like we have with Sergio and Rudy now.
Trout gives them an athletic swing man who can play some offense, which they don't really have right now (Bargnani is kind of a mess and Moon is really just a hustle guy), and Joel gives them a legit center since they'd have a big man rotation of LMA, Bargnani and O'Neal at that point. Plus, if Kapono(or whoever) got added to the deal, they'd get cap space and a nice little trade exception similar to what we used to get James Jones.
From our end, really a no brainer. Bosh is only 24 and could not have a game more perfect to complement Oden. We'd be a little light up front, but that could be solved by either resigning Channing/Ike (we'd probably have to renounce their rights to begin with the make the trade, though), or finding a guy in the draft. Serviceable backup PFs are a dime a dozen near the end of the first and in the second where we'll probably be drafting, so we'd probably be looking at a guy like Hansbrough or James from Texas). Bosh showed in the Olympics that he can play some center, too, so that would mitigate losing Greg's main backup, and a combo of Bayless, Sergio, Blake and Batum/Webs would take over Rudy's minutes (fewer minutes of Roy playing the 1 or 3 and more of him just at the 2).
I know it's a ridiculous idea, but a guy can dream, and man, that would be a dominant lineup:
Blake/Sergio
Roy
Webster/Batum
Bosh
Oden
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But what if they did?!?!
I can’t believe you wouldn’t want Chris Bosh on the Blazers, Timbo!
He’s really good! You heard it here first!
M—
Not going to happen.
Plus, Bosh would probably leave as a free agent anyway in 2010.
by Nick Van Excellent on Dec 3, 2008 5:11 PM PST reply actions
I'm not convinced that Rudy is THAT big of an upgrade at SG
Parker is having a down year overall from the field (just 39.2), but is shooting 46.2 from distance (better than Rudy), and his and Rudy’s lines are comparable, plus Parker is a good perimeter defender. That said, I still do like Rudy better as he’s younger and more athletic.
If LMA were able to get his averages to 20 and 8, then why would we need to trade for Bosh? Aldridge would essentially be CB4 lite! Also, the trade you proposed would only work if the Raptors had 12 players or less on their roster.
Its all pretty moot, as AK said before, there is basically no chance the Dinosaurs ever trade him.
"Smile! You're on a poster!!" - Mike Rice
This is so NOT a good deal for us.
Toronto would take this deal as it would give them 4 starters while losing only 1. Bosh is a really, really good player but LMA is pretty good right now and Rudy can be really good too so I can’t believe anyone would even consider this. No Way man!
by VinnyB on Dec 3, 2008 6:31 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
dude....I just made it past the preposed trade and I wanted to flag your post, kinda made me mad ya know?
n that’s all I think I really need to say….
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
guess not...
and I liked all of your other semi long comments :)
so, ya know? :)
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
n now I just sound like a jerk....
again…
but I’m padding the comment stat! ;)
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
I mean, something like this was going to come from someone
I wanted to present at least a semi-defensible case for it and at least give an example of the minimum that a trade post should present. I don’t believe for a second that this has any chance of ever happening, but I thought it was an interesting enough thought looking at Toronto’s roster to post something. I think if you squint hard enough and imagine for a second that Bosh publicly wants out of Toronto (pretty unlikely unless they somehow take a Miami-like tumble with a healthy Bosh and definitely not going to happen without that), then there aren’t much better deals out there for Toronto.
Like I said in the title, it’s a ridiculous proposal, I figured that would be enough for people to realize that I didn’t think this was going to happen, and to warn away the posters who hate seeing these trade proposals.
There’s only so much to discuss when things are going as well as they are right now. Besides, personally I’d rather see something like this that takes a little stretch of the imagination than read the 8 millionth Trout for Conley trade post.
IT'S TORRONTO!!! who really want's to play in canada?
:()
but yeah, I jumped the gun my critisisisism, it’s a very good post. just not my cup of tea ya know? :)
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
Nope
If Aldridge turns into a 20/8 guy, do we really want to trade him for Bosh anyhow? Throwing Rudy AND Outlaw really dimishes us as a team, we’d go from 11 deep to having to play Frye and Bayless in extended minutes. Whatever advantage Bosh would give us when he is in would be outweighed by what we give up on the white team, not to mention his gigantic 2010 cap hold ruining our best-laid-plans.
M, period. Fresh, comma.
Isn't there a Fantasy Island thread for this sort of goofy pie-in-the-sky stuff?
"Now with a non-provocative footer!"
That makes the Blazers much worse.
I think you’d do that trade if you wanted to blow up the Blazers, not make a contender better.
your math is confusing me
to get Bosh, a 20/10 guy, we’re trading a hypothetical 20/8 LMA… plus our 6th, 7th, and 8th man? That seems an awful lot to give to get two rebounds per game.
This idea of a 20/10 vs. 20/8 is ridiculous
First off, Bosh is averaging 26+ PPG this year, and there’s a pretty big difference between a 20/8 guy and a 26/10 guy.
Second, just looking at stats like that is absurd. Caron Butler averaged 20/8 last year and Bosh was at 22/11, and yet I think most people would agree that having Bosh over Butler is worth a lot more than the 2 points and 3 rebounds. Heck, probably a fair number of GMs wouldn’t even trade Bosh for Butler AND Jamison (21/12).
If LBJ becomes a 20/8 guy this year, he’d be real valuable, both to us and around the league, but not compared to Bosh, hence adding in the other guys. I mean, in LA’s best game by far this year scoring the basketball, he scored what Bosh averages.
just going by the "guaranteed 20/10" you wrote above
though historically Bosh has been more of a 22/9. Anyway, going outside the framework of your original post: Bosh is actually best at playing C this season, where he gets the majority of his minutes (44% of the team’s available minutes at C, vs. 40% of PF; for comparison, LA plays 6% of our minutes at the 5). When looking at PF time only, per 48 minutes LA has the better eFG%, PER, TO, and block numbers, and is only 1.4 points and .4 assists behind Bosh. Bosh really makes his hay at center, where he has a whopping +15.1 PER of production over his opponent.
Statistically, Bosh is definitively better than LA at two things: going to the line, and defensive rebounds. (I’m ignoring FG% right now because LA is below his career numbers and Bosh, possibly still fired up from the Olympics a la Wade, Kobe, and LBJ, is well above his usual percentage.) The interesting thing is that despite their nearly identical shot selection, Bosh draws fouls at twice the rate. I tend to think that LA can learn to be a better defensive rebounder (though he hasn’t shown the desire, thus far), but I’m not sure that offensively he has the particular BBIQ or whatever it is that Bosh has. All other things being equal, this is why Bosh will put up more points than LA.
Anyway. Is Bosh a great player? No doubt. He’s clearly taken his game to a new level this season, though it remains to be seen if he can sustain this throughout the whole season. Likewise, it’s impossible to say if LA is in a slump right now, or if he’ll just be unable to overcome the additional defensive pressure that comes with being the clearcut #2 scoring option. However, I stand by my original (though flip) assessment that, on this Blazer team, the difference between the two is not huge. We’d improve at the starting 4, but enough to counter our losses at 5, 4, and 2? Joel and Rudy are, at worst, among the top three backups at their position in the league. That’s a tough pill to swallow.
A valid point,
but I’d say the reason that Bosh’s numbers are so much better as a center is that when he’s playing PF, he has to play alongside the shell that is Jermaine O’Neal now, whereas when he’s “officially” playing center, he’s playing alongside Bargnani. Jermaine has been simply awful this year and I’d imagine teams can pretty much just leave him alone and double Bosh (haven’t seen too many raps games this year, so I can’t say for sure). Bargnani at least provides a scoring threat, opening things up for Bosh.
Now, you could make the argument that Bosh plays best alongside a perimeter big who won’t clog up the middle (as opposed to Oden), but I’m not sure that’s the case, given that, like you said, their shot selection is nearly identical, except that Bosh is shooting 7% higher than LA this year overall and we all agree that LA’s offensive game is what we’re looking at as a perfect complement to Greg.
As far as whether it’d be worth our losses at the other positions, I’m just trying to frame the question somewhat realistically. I believe this is the bare minimum it would take for us to get Bosh, even given the circumstances that I outlined at the top of the post. I’ve seen too many obvious one-sided, Trout + RLEC for Tayshaun Prince!!!! trade posts to want to see every poster all agree that, “yes, that would be a great trade”.
Jermaine O'Neal can still bring it defensively, but he's utterly atrocious on offense.
O’Neal and Andrea Bargnani are an odd platoon at the pivot, as they’re polar opposites.
Bosh's PER
the last three years: 23, 23, 24. This year so far? 25. He’s not at a new level this season, he’s just gradually improving as one would expect for a 24 year old guy.
by howlingfantods on Dec 3, 2008 10:40 PM PST up reply actions
I was referring to the fact
that his shooting percentage and scoring is at an all-time high. Plus from what little I’ve seen of Toronto this year, he just looks more fired up than I’ve seen him before. That being said, he was a great player before this year, too.
GREG ODEN
Jerryd Bayless has two emotions: Kill and Win.
"I want to put points on your face."
-Rudy to Pau Gasol
NorrisHopper30: "someone injure pubert jones"
Is this a joke?
Our starting Power Forward who just ate Sheed alive on national tv and is still improving; Outlaw who is an unstopable force who is also still improving; Rudy, who has made me bi-sexual, and Zilla the best back up center in the game for a guy who’s team is under five hundred and is so under performing that the coach just got fired. Four great players for one.
I don’t get it.
TEH SUXRZ!!!
No way. Rudy and Trout might be too much for Bosh, and they play off our bench.
Give up Pryz too??? This leaves us uber thin at center.
And don’t get me started on LMA.
No Thanks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I LIKE the team we have.
There once was a Sea’ Cap’n Nate
Whom with Blazers did negotiate.
The pool, t’was so deep!
"That KP don’t sleep."
Gold medals and rings were his fate.
On a side note, ...
anyone who thinks that LaMarcus Aldridge has been, is, or ever will be in the same category as Chris Bosh should quit watching basketball and find a new hobby. Bosh is a legitimate superstar and world-renowned Olympic gold medalist, while Aldridge is an inefficient mid-range jump shooter with a weak low-post game offensively — as well as is a mediocre interior defender in both man-to-man matchups and when coming across the weakside during help situations — thus, it’s ridiculous to compare the two guys to each other.
I'm actually pretty shocked at some of the responses here
I mean, I love our guys, and value LA more than you do and I can see the argument against sacrificing our depth, but we’d really make out like bandits here, hence the ridiculous in the title. I was just thinking about what would be the best possible outcome for us if Toronto does fall apart since Bosh has such an ideal game to play alongside Oden when Greg finally comes into his own. I really see him as Lamarcus, except better in every single aspect of the game, which is no insult to LA, but just a compliment to Bosh.
The dude is one of the best players in the league, anyway you slice it, which I thought was a pretty universal opinion, but apparently not amongst the blazer faithful.
The ignorance of some folks is due to those thick, ugly rose-colored glasses that are blinding 'em.
In my perspective, Chris Bosh is easily two levels above LaMarcus Aldridge in every conceivable facet.
Agreed
They are nowhere close to being close to being anywhere near the same level. Bosh is a potential MVP, first-team All NBA guy. Lamarcus is a POTENTIAL all-star MAYBE in a couple years. Bosh is a rock star scorer, rebounder, and defender. LMA is a pretty good scorer and that’s about it right now.
HUGE difference.
Bosh isn’t on the market – no way, no how, not ever unless he were guaranteed to leave in 2010 – but if he were, it would be lock-you-up crazy nuts bonkers not to strongly consider a deal like the one proposed.
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
Like I said, it would take essentially
a Kobe to Chicago trade demand from Bosh and an absolute implosion from the Raptors this year for this to even approach the realm of possibility. The difference between us and Chicago when they were trying to make that Kobe deal is that we actually have legitimate players with no asterisks as opposed to basically every player Chicago was talking about moving (Gordon too small, Hinrich not a true PG, Tyrus no good, Noah worthless, Deng apparently off limits), and Bosh doesn’t have a no trade clause like Kobe does, so where Kobe could have( and apparently did) veto any trade that involved Deng because he wanted to move to a competitive team, Bosh would have no say over where he was going, although he would have a significant amount of leverage by threatening to not sign an extension wherever he ended up.
As far as making it fair, a trade for a guy like Bosh is never going to be fair. My original idea had Bayless going to the Raps also, but whatever.
Defense
I think you’re underrating his defense. Hopefully his offense will improve and he can improve his low post game. I saw improvement last year from the beginning to the end. If he improves as much this year he’ll have a decent low post game. His biggest problem is seemingly his attitude. He looks scared or timid in the post, shooting fade aways instead of going towards the hoop.
I'm always a bit harsh in my judgement of players' defense, but that's 'cause ...
I respect top-notch man-to-man interior defenders like Joel Przybilla, Brook Lopez, Rasho Nesterovic, Erick Dampier, et al.
You're not seriously putting those guys in the same category
as the Thrilla?
Once upon a time Damp was up there, but Diop has been the clearly better defensive center in Dallas the last three years, just an absolute hole on offense, Hollinger has been pretty vocal about him in his writing.
I can’t speak too much to Brook since I haven’t seen Jersey play this year, but given that the consensus view among scouts seemed to be that his brother was the better defender and I have a hard time believing that a guy who isn’t even the best defensive rookie big deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as Joel, who you could argue has been the best defensive center in the league this year.
Brook Lopez is the better one-on-one low-post defender, while ...
Robin Lopez is the better weakside help defender. It was that way at Stanford and in the NBA.
Erick Dampier is still a force to be reckoned with on defense, as is shown by these here stats.
Net Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions: -14.3
Net On-Court/Off-Court eFG% Allowed: -7.8%
It’s too bad that Dampier has always been underrated in that regard.
I agree that Damp has been underrated historically,
but at the same time he’s being vastly overpaid. If he was making the same as Joel and not double, he’d be a decent value.
That being said, I don’t think those are the stats that say almost anything about Damp’s abilities as a one on one post defender, given that they’re full team +/-‘s and so are influenced by way more factors than simply Damp’s ability to play the post.
For the record, here’s what Hollinger had to say about Diop last year when he put him as “honorable mention” all defense. I can’t remember what the number stands for and I don’t have an espn insider account, so I can’t check out the full link. I’m by no means a worshipper of Hollinger’s sabermetrics, but at least it’s a perspective from a national writer.
“Diop (8.54) has had awesome numbers, and observations back them up — he’s clearly one of the best defensive centers in basketball, both in terms of defending the post and offering help defense. But he’s become so poor offensively that he hardly plays, making it tough to move him too far up this list.”
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=All-Defense-080410
actually
their shot selection is very nearly identical, and LA is the better shotblocker. Bosh’s defensive numbers this year are better on paper, in regards to opponents eFG% and PER, but the East is not quite as deep with bigs as the West, for what that’s worth.
Chris Bosh is by no means a world-beater defensively, but ...
he’s still one step ahead of LaMarcus Aldridge in that department.
Serious homers here. Just amazing. We've actually got folks arguing
that LMA is a better defender than Bosh? Oh lordy. Not that Bosh is great defensively but definitely a better post defender than LMA. I think they’re about even on outside guys on switches. LMA gets a few more blocks, his blocks are the statistically significant but not gameplay significant type. Oden’s blocks start making opponents fear the paint. LMA doesn’t intimidate.
Bosh and LMA don’t have the same shot selection. Bosh has the outside jumper like LMA but his lethal weapon is the dribble drive; he penetrates like a guard and the bigs guarding him can’t handle him.
For the record, as much as I love Rudy and Thrilla and think LMA is a nice second or third option, I’d fall all over myself to make this move. Roy Bosh Oden and a couple of NBADL guys would mean titles up the ying yang.
by howlingfantods on Dec 3, 2008 10:09 PM PST up reply actions
That's a marvelous point about drawing fouls.
Thus far this season, Chris Bosh has drawn a foul on of his 20.2% field-goal attempts; on the other hand, LaMarcus Aldridge has drawn a foul on just 10.3% of his field-goal attempts. That’s practically twice the production.
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