Our Future Beyond the Arc

by staylost on Dec 3, 2008 10:37 AM PST


	This	Season's	Three	Point	Attack
	Webster	Outlaw	Batum	Rudy	Sergio	Blake	Roy	Frye
3pts Taken	N/A	60	47	102	31	88	52	13
3pts Made		29	19	44	11	38	19	5
3pt %		48.3%	40.4%	43.1%	35.5%	43.2%	36.5%	38.5%
Minutes/Game		27.7	16.8	25.9	15.2	29.2	36.3	15
Minutes		526	319	492	289	555	690	285
Minute/3pt Taken		8.8	6.8	4.8	9.3	6.3	13.3	21.9

Career	37.2%	37.2%	40.4%	43.1%	29.9%	38.5%	35.6%	28.0%
'07-'08	38.8%	39.6%			29.3%	40.6%	34.0%	30.0%

The Portland Trailblazers are an awesome 3pt shooting team this year. They were a strong one last year too, but our 3pt contingent has changed. Above are comparisons (the raw data is from espn.com) of our long bomers so far. If I omitted someone you think should be here, I'm sorry. This is meant to be forward looking and not to include those who shouldn't be shooting threes (LMA; who has an atrocious record).

With a view of being forward looking I've tried to compare some past numbers to show how 3pt development is going. In all cases the present is better than the past. Those who are truly blossoming this year are Outlaw and the rookies. Since players tend to get better and better at shooting 3pts following their rookie years, Batum & Rudy may represent some amazing investments for the team. As has been discussed in other posts, Outlaw has been shoot more when he is open rather than dribbling up to his defender. This may be improving his %. Still, because of his career numbers, one would expect his % to fall as the year continues. If it does not, it is undeniable that he has drasticly improved.

Blake has been steady most of his career. He's been nothing special, but nothing bad either. This year he and Sergio were rumored to have worked on their games a lot. Perhaps this increase is in relation to that, or perhaps it has to do with Gregzilla. Regardless, Blake is now in the realm of a quality shooter from three land. He is making good choices. I'll forgive Sergio a bit because he has to shoot cold more than Blake. Still, he should just work harder to set Rudy up.

Please feel free to post comparisons of other players the Blazers might acquire, but remember, they are not in the Portland control group. Their % might change were they to be as open as a Blazer when shooting a three.

Other random thoughts:

Is Roy shooting too many threes when he could be setting up the better shooters instead? (Yes, establishing his jumpshot helps him get to the hoop later.)
Outlaw & Frye have improved hugely. More than can be reasonably attributed to better interior play by others.
I <3 Rudy/Batum!
Remember, statistics are limited in descriptive value when speaking of basketball. This group of statisics neglects all other parts of play (shot form, for example, which ensures better consistency).

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Comments

Frye

Frye should be removed from the list. He can hit it alot better than LMA, but it would be nice if he used the tool more sparingly.

by colganc on Dec 3, 2008 10:58 AM PST reply actions

I would actually like to see Frye shoot more 3's

Right now he is taking a lot of shots from just inside the 3-point arc. If he just took 1 step back and shot 3-pointers instead, his scoring efficiency would improve significantly.

by trk on Dec 3, 2008 12:18 PM PST up reply actions

Right

If he really keeps knocking them down at 38.5, that’s an effective FG of 58%.

Small sample size, so we don’t know if he can continue to shoot like that or not, but if he does, it’s a nice weapon if it comes in the flow of the offense.

The most amazing thing about my amazing ego is I have amazingly little about which to be egotistical.
The pick and roll this year will emphasize "roll" followed by "dunk", followed by the wailings and lamentations of your women.

by jscot on Dec 3, 2008 1:15 PM PST up reply actions

great work

i really enjoyed seeing those numbers displayed like that, althow i didnt really get the las line,07-’08 38.8% 39.6% 29.3% 40.6% 34.0% 30.0% ??? but im not really that savy on thing like this.

it was funny to note how confortable i am with brandon taking the three, when i really shouldnt be, LOL

by maid tu rek on Dec 3, 2008 11:20 AM PST reply actions

Sorry, the "career" and "'07-'08" lines should say they are the 3pt% for the players careers and for last year

Again, sorry, that was my first time posting anything but numbers and letters here so by the time the preview looked at least reasonable i went with it.

by staylost on Dec 3, 2008 11:32 AM PST up reply actions

Roys 3's

I think Brandon’s 3 point % is lower partly because he often has the ball behind the 3 pt. line as the shot clock is expiring. He shoots fewer spot up 3’s than any of the rest. So he shouldn’t be shooting those 3’s but it’s more because our offense failed to create something far earlier.

by boppitywop on Dec 3, 2008 11:48 AM PST reply actions

What's still funny is that

both Outlaw (sometimes even if the shot clock isn’t expiring) and Rudy do the same thing. Ill advised guarded 3pts are taken by these two as well.

Just not as often.

by staylost on Dec 3, 2008 12:01 PM PST up reply actions

Really?

With Travis, it seems to me like he only takes them when he is wide open. I would say the biggest criticism of him is that he still passes up too many open 3s for a worse shot closer in, although he has improved on this. I’d like to see him shoot 25-50% more threes, since he does it so well, and since he is getting open looks that he isn’t using.

by pualo on Dec 3, 2008 1:30 PM PST up reply actions

Well, either way

I’d have to agree with you. That is an amazing 3pt% if he can keep it up. I really hope he can get to the point where he gets the defender running at him like mad & then drives AROUND them rather than into them for layup postion.

Please Travis! Let the game come to you!

by staylost on Dec 3, 2008 1:37 PM PST up reply actions

It would be interesting to see Roy's percentage on just open shots.

Actually, I’d love to see those numbers for everyone. But I’m guessing no one keeps track of that.

by pualo on Dec 3, 2008 1:32 PM PST up reply actions

I'm sure the % would be reasonable but

I remember missed open ones that he took more than makes. He, like Outlaw, loves it when someone challenges his shot.

And yeah, no one keeps tra

by staylost on Dec 3, 2008 1:40 PM PST up reply actions

[continued]

ck of that.

But you could be the first!

by staylost on Dec 3, 2008 1:40 PM PST up reply actions

I'm really, really pleased with Sergio

You’d like to see it bump up closer to 40%, but it’s decent, and who would have thought that after last year, or even after the first few games this year?

This is a good post. Three point shooting is a significant factor in our success so far. If we can shoot around 40% or better on 3s consistently, it will win a lot of games.

by jscot on Dec 3, 2008 1:18 PM PST reply actions