OK, I've got this set up so it's easy to paste in, so hopefully, I can do this regularly without much trouble.

SUMMARY INFO

Four categories of games:

1. Home games against sub .500 teams.
2. Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category).
3. Road games at losing teams.
4. Road games at winning teams. 

A general formula success in the NBA is to win almost all of Cat 1, a majority of Cat 2 and Cat 3, and win some in Cat 4.  The contenders may win more than half of their Cat 4 games.

Discussed further here (by ULC) and here.  Last Week's Status.

COMMENTS ON THE WEEK

Since last week, Portland lost one Cat 4 in Denver, went 1-1 in Cat 2, and won a Cat 1 game.  Lost a little ground, but not too bad.

Dallas improved their position by going 1-1 in Cat 4 games and winning two games (one home, one away) against weak opposition.

Denver improved their position by splitting with us and winning two (one home, one away) against losing teams.

Houston won a Cat 4 at NJ, but lost two of them at Cleveland and N.O., then won a Cat 2 at home against Utah.  A decent showing, basically treading water compared to their position last week.

L.A. went 4-0, winning one from every category (including at home against Boston.  They are rolling, and again look dominant after getting swept in Florida the week before.

N.O. slipped a little, 0-1 on Cat 4, 1-0 on Cat 3, and 1-1 on Cat 2.  They rescued a really bad week with a home win against Houston and a road win at Indiana.  Not very good but not horrible.

Phoenix played only one game, a loss at home to San Antonio.  In a week where you only play one, you really want a win, especially if it is at home.  This week hurt them -- and they weren't exactly in a great position anyway.

The Spurs went 4-0, three home wins against bottom feeders (two of them pretty tough wins), and the nice win at Phoenix.  They are showing good form earlier than usual this year.  I don't think the DM will ever let these guys be slain.

Utah lost at Milwaukie and Houston, and beat Dallas at home.  As long as they can defend their home court, they'll stay in the hunt, but they've got an awful lot of tough home games ahead, and they haven't been impressive on the road, even against bad teams.  They really need to start beating teams like Milwaukie on the road.

Winners this week:  Dallas, Denver, L.A., S.A.

Treading water: Houston.

Hurt themselves:  Phoenix, Utah, Portland, N.O.

The tables:

Cat 4

Houston has now played as many in this category as we have, and Denver is close.  The others have a lot more hard games ahead.

Cat 3

Everyone but Utah is still taking care of business on the road against losing teams.

Cat 2

Against good teams at home, we're still one of the best, despite our loss to Denver Dallas.  As long as we keep winning 75% or better of our games in this category, we'll stay in the hunt.  Of the very best teams, though, the only one we've played in Portland is Orlando.  A win against Boston would be very nice, but a win against N.O. is probably more useful in the playoff battle.  If I could only have one, I'd take one over the Hornets.

Cat 1

The Spurs have moved up in the standings this week, but primarily because they got to beat up on bottom feeders at home.  Phoenix has more of these games left than anyone, which is the real bright spot in their schedule ahead -- lots and lots of should-win games, which will keep them in the hunt.

All Home Games

The road/home disparity is clearing, the only teams with significantly fewer home games remaining are L.A. (irrelevant, we aren't catching them) and S.A. (we probably don't catch them, either, barring injury).  Our home record is better than everyone except L.A.  If that is still the case after our next three home games, I think you can book it that we're in the playoffs.

All Away Games

Houston has now played more road games than we have, Utah the same number.  L.A., N.O., Phoenix, and S.A. still lag behind by a ways, which could cost them all a game or two.

All Games Against Winning Teams

Against winning teams, only L.A., Houston, and N.O. have a better overall record than we do.

All Games Against Losing Teams

Against losing teams, San Antonio, Denver, Phoenix, L.A., and Dallas have better records, N.O. is the same.

Back to Back Games

We have the least remaining back to back games, but all of ours finish with a road game.  Utah ties Denver for the most remaining, and 9 of theirs finish on the road at winning teams.  They had one game like that this week, and lost it. 

That's the Boring Stuff

Here's the only thing most of you really cared about:  the jscot Stupid Sched Projections.  How these work, and why they are stupid, is explained in last week's post.  Do not blame me.  This is only the numbers.  It isn't the spreadsheet's fault, either, the spreadsheet is only doing what it is told to do.  Remember that if NJ loses another game, everything changes drastically, which shows just how stupid this is.

Playoff seedings if everyone keeps winning in every category at exactly the same rate for the rest of the season, and if no .500 or better team turns into a losing team, or vice versa (is that enough disclaimers)?

1. L.A. -- 66.6 wins.  For those of you into a particular scheme of interpretation of Biblical prophecy, remove the decimal and you have the number of Antichrist.  Take that however you will.
2. Houston -- 55.1 wins.  Treading water, but their competitors for #2 slipped.
3. Portland -- 54.2 wins.  If we're still this high next week, it means we won 2 of the 3 killers this week.  If we do that, the Negative Nancy posters around here will be sentenced to two weeks as fans of OKC.
4. N.O. -- 53.5 wins.  They've still played four games fewer than we have, so a mediocre week hurts them percentage wise slightly more than it hurts us.  We can help them have a mediocre week this week by beating them on Friday, and sending them on to Denver on Saturday.
5. S.A. -- 52.9 wins.  The spreadsheet is not as impressed as the standings with them beating bad teams in San Antonio, but they moved up some.
6. Phoenix -- 52.7 wins.  The spreadsheet still thinks they will win all of their Cat 1 games, based on a 3-0 record so far.  The spreadsheet is probably wrong.
7. Denver -- 52.0 wins.  It's nice that at least one team doesn't have to figure out how to come up with that fractional win thing.
8. Dallas -- 49.1 wins.  Their win at Portland is the main factor in their improvement.
9. Utah -- 46.1 wins.  Their loss at Milwaukie is the main factor in their decline, though if they had pulled out the win at Houston, it would have more than cancelled out the Milwaukie loss.

So there it is.  Don't bet on these numbers in Vegas.  If you really want to bet on them, let me know instead.  I am certain some of these will be fairly far out.